UFC 276 Punch Drunk Predictions
Will the champs retain? Will the belts change hands? One of each? What about everything else?
I honestly feel like a kid on Christmas Eve or the day before my birthday right now; that’s the same kind of anticipatory feeling I have knowing there is One More Sleep (Shouts to Jon Anik) before UFC 276 actually arrives and I get all the violent and intriguing presents I’ve been waiting for since this card first started coming together.
It’s actually good that I’m not on the road covering this event and have familial obligations through the early part of the afternoon.
If I were in Vegas, I’d be up at some ridiculous hour in the morning, unable to contain my excitement, and I’d likely start getting ready to head over to the venue somewhere around noon, even though things don’t really get moving until about 3pm. I’d have too many coffees, be smiling like a Trevor Wittman while cornering a fight, and everyone around me would be sick of me in 4.7 seconds.
If I were just going to be here at the house in Abbotsford, my wife would want to kill me. I’d still be up at some ridiculous hour in the morning, unable to contain my excitement, and smiling like Wittman, but she’d be solely responsible for contending with my energy and exuberance, and there is a very good chance that she’s want absolutely nothing to do with me from the minute I was done making us breakfast.
She’d be irritated with me because I can be a lot, especially in the morning, but she’s not going to miss a good Saturday morning breakfast over it. Annoying as I might be, I still make great eggs.
But I’m not in Vegas and I’m not just going to be bombing around the house, counting down the hours to the show, which should help keep my exuberance contained until I sit down in my office roughly 30 minutes before the fights get started.
After that, I’ll be bouncing off the walls, giddy with excitement, and rapt by the myriad fascinating fights set to hit the Octagon.
This is the best card of the year and I absolutely cannot wait.
Let’s Fucking Go!
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Israel Adesanya vs. Jared Cannonier
There are ways for Cannonier to win this fight, and generally speaking, I think this will be more competitive than some people are anticipating, but at the end of the day, the champ retains.
Cannonier has to make this a combination of the Gastelum and Blachowicz fights versus Izzy — muck it up and find success in the madness as Gastelum did, and use your size and physicality, especially in the clinch and grappling situations, as Blachowicz did — but even then, that just makes things closer for me because he doesn’t have the kind of control the former light heavyweight champion does on the canvas, and I’m not sure he has the ridiculous tenacity and grit that Gastelum showed in that battle either.
And Adesanya has literally been through those battles, learned from them, grown since them, and outside of getting caught with something unexpected that puts him out (which we haven’t been close to seeing yet), I lean towards the champion making the correct reads and adjustments, showing his sound defensive abilities, and scoring more over the course of 25 minutes to get the job done and keep the title.
Prediction: Israel Adesanya
Alexander Volkanovski vs. Max Holloway
I said it on the Severe MMA Preview Show with the lads yesterday, but I’ll say it again here: I think Volkanovski has levelled-up since his last fight with Holloway and he comes out here looking to make a real statement while putting this rivalry to bed once and for all.
Those wins over Brian Ortega and “The Korean Zombie” had to further bolster the Australian’s confidence, and seeing Max slow down a tick against Yair Rodriguez feels like it could be another piece of this for Volk, who hasn’t looked particularly bothered going 25 minutes ever and seems to get better as the fight goes on in most instances.
I have a slight concern that Holloway has just been in too many long, drawn out battles where the damage is slowly starting to pile up, and I honestly wouldn’t be surprised if this is the fight where we start seeing signs of that, because Volkanovski is going to get after him.
Between the champ’s push to put a stamp on this one for his own satisfaction and Holloway maybe being a tick slower and more hittable, I think we see Volkanovski cruise, and I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he actually goes out and collects a finish later in the fight.
Prediction: Alexander Volkanovski
Sean Strickland vs. Alex Pereira
If this were a strict kickboxing matchup, the choice is obvious, but because it’s MMA, things are a little more complicated.
Pereira could absolutely come out here and batter Strickland if the streaking, intentionally off-putting middleweight tries to get into a pure fist fight with the powerful, towering Brazilian, but I just can’t see Strickland making that choice. We’ve spent too much time in the last year talking about all the miserable grappling rounds he logs with Magomed Ankalaev for me to believe he’s not going to come out here, work to get this to the canvas, and repeat those steps until he either finds a finish or the final bell sounds.
This honestly feels like Strickland’s fight to lose to me because unless Pereira has improved by dramatic amounts since his win over Bruno Silva, the Xtreme Couture representative should be able to dictate the terms of engagement and do what is necessary to earn the victory.
Prediction: Sean Strickland
Robbie Lawler vs. Bryan Barberena
I just don’t think Lawler has enough left in the tank to deal with the pressure and grime and durability that Barberena brings to the Octagon.
Maybe he proves me wrong, but this feels like one of those instances where everyone does the “he’s still dangerous” routine about the former champion who hasn’t looked particularly dangerous against anyone other than washed veterans since January 2016 out of respect, unwilling to accept that they’re 40, been fighting for more than half of their life, and at a certain point, desire to still be competitive isn’t enough to still be competitive against someone that just showed a couple months ago that he’s capable of winning a better version of this fight.
“Bam Bam” went through the fires with Matt Brown in Brown’s backyard in March, and came out with his hand raised. “The Immortal” is on the way out too, but at least he’s had some competitive fights and good wins over actually active fighters in the last couple years.
This should be — as Harry said on the Preview Show — a replication of Colby Covington’s approach to beating Lawler: pressure, touch touch touch, grapple, touch, grapple some more, touch, pressure, touch, grapple… you get the picture.
Prediction: Bryan Barberena
Pedro Munhoz vs. Sean O’Malley
Is it just too much for me to ask that I see O’Malley beat someone of Munhoz’ stature before I buy into him being a Top 10 fighter in the bantamweight division?
TSN’s Aaron Bronsteter put out a tweet earlier in the week indicating that O’Malley’s UFC opponents have gone a combined 4-13 since losing to the DWCS valedictorian, and while he followed it by clarifying he wasn’t calling them weak opposition, I most certainly am because when you’ve got a Natan Levy Number (see below) of (-9) at the UFC level, that means you’re beating a whole bunch of dudes that are not UFC caliber fighters.
Aaron’s comparison was fighters that lost to Justin Gaethje — they’re 6-19 since — but it doesn’t feel like an apples-to-apples comparison to me as the majority of those subsequent setbacks came against legitimate UFC talents, while O’Malley has beaten a bunch of guys that either never found much success in the UFC or were clearly in the midst of a precipitous decline.
Which means the one and only person he’s been in with that doesn’t fit either of those descriptions is Chito Vera, and he lost to him, quickly, and now I’m just supposed to accept that he’s going to go out and run through a guy that has a whole bunch of legitimate quality wins in this division? I can’t do it.
It might happen, and I’ll be here on Saturday in 10 Things offering an apology to O’Malley if it does, but I’m just not sure he’s anywhere near as good as people want to believe he is, especially when it comes to dealing with guys that just aren’t going to wilt and cave and allow you to beat the hell out of them.
I don’t think he likes getting hit — “he doesn’t like being the nail” as Harry has put it all week — and Munhoz is going to hit him, repeatedly, and hard. This feels like a real “prove something” moment for O’Malley, and I just don’t know that he’s made of the right material to be the guy so many people seem to want him to be.
Munhoz takes some shots, but land some heavy ones of his own and gets him out of there inside the distance; that’s my call.
Prediction: Pedro Munhoz
* Natan Levy Number: an MMA formula where you tabulate the combined records of an emerging fighter’s opponents following their meeting in order to get a greater understanding of the level of competition said newcomer faced on their way to the big stage. The better the record, the better the competition, in theory. Levy was the first fighter I did this for, so it’s named in his honour.
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Preliminary Card Picks
Brad Riddell def. Jalin Turner
Ian Garry def. Gabriel Green
Jim Miller def. Donald Cerrone
Dricus du Plessis def. Brad Tavares
Andre Muniz def. Uriah Hall
Maycee Barber def. Jessica Eye
Jessica-Rose Clark def. Julija Stoliarenko
2022 PDP Record: 166-90-0 (.648)