10 Things I Like at UFC 262
From the lightweight two-piece closing out the show to intriguing assignments on the prelims, this weekend's pay-per-view has plenty that excites me.
Sorry for the delay in getting this out — I spent last night crushing other assignments and this AM getting vaccinated, so I’m a little later than normal with your Thursday Fight Week staple.
Thanks for your patience.
Sincerely,
The Management
The Slow, Strange Climb of Charles Oliveira
I remember watching Charles Oliveira’s first couple UFC fights and thinking, “This kid has got something.”
He was then promptly thrown into the deep end, going 2-4 with one No Contest in his next seven fights while dropping to featherweight, where he failed to make weight a couple times and felt destined to become one of those “great talents that never really put it all together” guys. Even when he first moved back to lightweight, he kept talking about being allowed to go back down to featherweight, where his ceiling was established and he struggled to make weight.
None of it made sense.
But over the last three years, “Do Bronx” has dialled everything in, playing to his strengths and putting his full compliment of talents on display during an eight-fight winning streak that is comprised of seven consecutive stoppages and a dominant decision win over Tony Ferguson. He’s become the best version of who he always seemed capable of becoming, even if questions about his ability to compete with the absolute apex-level talent in the lightweight division remain.
Part of that is because he wasn’t hustled in with the shark earlier, instead climbing the ladder with sterling efforts against tough outs and veteran talents before facing Kevin Lee and Ferguson in his two 2020 appearances. Part of it is because Ferguson has faltered of late, resulting in his unexpected dominance of “El Cucuy” carrying a tinge of doubt heading into this weekend’s championship main event.
Aaron Bronsteter of TSN mentioned on the latest episode of The Man and The MITH podcast that if Oliveira is successful on Saturday night, he’ll surpass Michael Bisping as the champion with the most UFC appearances prior to winning gold in the promotion’s history; that’s what a long, strange trip this has been for the Brazilian… and he’s still only 31.
It’s been crazy watching Oliveira’s ups and downs and impressive run to this championship opportunity, and it’s going to be interesting to see how this current chapter wraps up this weekend.
Pantheon Opportunity for Michael Chandler
If you’re listing the best lightweights in MMA history, you’re probably into double digits before you get around to mentioning Michael Chandler, who has enjoyed a very good career, but is limited by having spend the overwhelming majority of that time competing under the Bellator banner.
He enjoyed three different reigns as Bellator lightweight champion, engaged in a tremendous rivalry with Eddie Alvarez early in his career, a tough two-fight series with Will Brooks after that, and served as one of the promotion’s leading men right up until he departed for the UFC last year. The 35-year-old made an immediate impression in his debut, dropping Dan Hooker and cutting a Ric Flair-inspired promo to announce himself as a real factor in the lightweight title chase, but even now, as he readies to face Oliveira with the belt hanging in the balance, I’m not sure many people would consider him one of the Top 3 fighters in the division, yet alone an all-time Top 10 lightweight.
A win on Saturday doesn’t immediately change all that, but it certainly makes things a lot more interesting and would give Chandler an opportunity to make a real push for pantheon status in arguably the most consistently deep and competitive divisions in the sport.
This feels akin to a perennial all-star finally grabbing a championship ring later in their careers, changing the narrative in the process, transforming themselves from someone that has a long, impressive career to someone you have to legitimately consider amongst the best of their generation or era. Chandler is Kevin Garnett and his move to the UFC is Garnett getting traded to the Boston Celtics.
“The Big Ticket” hoisted the Larry O’Brien Trophy and told us that “Anything is Possible,” so it shouldn’t be out of the question for Chandler to collect gold on Saturday and prompt a re-examination of where he stands in the hierarchy of all-time greats in the lightweight division.
Can Tony Ferguson Bounce Back?
It’s so difficult to know whether Ferguson’s two losses in 2020 are a function of facing elite competition, a sign that his days as an elite contender are coming to an end, or some combination of both, which is why his matchup this weekend with Beneil Dariush feels so important.
After rattling off a dozen consecutive victories while operating at a break-neck pace inside the Octagon, Ferguson got carved up by Justin Gaethje at UFC 249 last May and manhandled by Oliveira in December at UFC 256.
He looked a step slow. The laser focus and unmatched tenacity that punctuated his previous appearances wasn’t there. He looked mortal after years of being every bit the unrelenting boogeyman his nickname suggests.
Was it the level of competition? Was it that he’s now 37 and has been through a ton of hard-fought, bloody battles? Was it a massive let-down after once again failing to land opposite Khabib Nurmagomedov that turned into a lengthy, year-long hangover? I don’t know and like everyone else, I’m desperate to find out, and believe this weekend’s pairing will provide a bunch of answers.
This is the kind of fight where “El Cucuy” usually shines — a potentially explosive pairing with a skilled, but still a little untested upstart looking to take the next step forward in the division, yet he enters this weekend as the underdog and it’s kind of hard to shake the image of a fired up Donald Cerrone having no answers for Alex Morono last weekend from my mind.
It’s difficult not to get caught up in remembering that Cerrone and Anthony Pettis are the last two men that Ferguson has beaten and 2021 hasn’t gone well for either of them thus far.
All that is to say I’m counting down the hours until this fight because I really want to know if the end is nigh for one of the best lightweights of the last 10 years or if Saturday will be the start of another run for the division’s resident mercurial wild man.
Big Spot for Beneil Dariush
This is the opportunity Beneil Dariush asked for and now it’s up to him to make the most of it.
I think everyone agreed with Dariush when he made a passionate plea to face a bigger name following his win over Carlos Diego Ferreira earlier this year — it was his sixth straight victory, he’d climbed his way back into the rankings, and yet before that, he was always facing guys a step or two behind him in the pecking order. He wanted someone ranked ahead of him, someone with a name, and now he’s paired with Ferguson in a matchup that has been elevated to the co-main event and we’re all going to see if he can rise to the occasion and keep things rolling.
Dariush has been lights out since recovering from a neck injury that severely limited him during his three-fight drought between March 2017 and March 2018, posting six victories and four finishes to once again be considered a dark horse contender in the lightweight division. He’s courted disaster in a couple of those fights, willingly engaging in brawls when playing to his strengths might have been a better decision, but he’s come out victorious every time and elevated his profile in the process, sending him into Saturday’s clash with Ferguson as the betting favorite.
His suggestion that he’s ready to try and out-crazy “El Cucuy” feels like a “When Keeping It Real Goes Wrong” moment waiting to happen, but Dariush has shown an improved ability to weather damage and respond in kind, and if Ferguson has declined even a little over the last year, that might be the path for the Kings MMA product to take in order to secure the biggest win of his career.
It’s the best way for Dariush to inject himself into the round robin of sorts that’s taking place at the top of the division at the moment, however it could also be the thing that ends his winning streak and leaves him trying to make up ground the rest of the year, which is why this is such a compelling matchup, such an intriguing fight, and why it needs to hurry up and get here already.
Flyweight Final Exam
A few months back, I compared middleweight Derek Brunson to the series of examinations you have to pass in order to get into university or law school or med school, dubbing a match with the Sanford MMA product “The DBT” (Derek Brunson Test) ahead of his bout with Kevin Holland.
Holland failed miserably, and therefore wasn’t allowed to matriculate further up the rankings.
While Brunson is the test you have to pass to reach that higher level, Katlyn Chookagian profiles as the test you have to pass in order to graduate from that next stage of your career in order to become a bona fide title challenger in the flyweight division. She’s the Bar Exam for 125-pound hopefuls eager to test themselves against Valentina Shevchenko, and this weekend, Viviane Araujo is the one sitting down to take the test.
Araujo has earned back-to-back wins over Montana De La Rosa and Roxanne Modafferi, putting him on the fringes of contention, but she needs a victory over someone like Chookagian to really cement her standing as a viable title threat. Historically, Chookagian is the one you have to beat to make that happen, as the last two fighters to beat the 32-year-old “Blonde Fighter” have immediately challenged for the title in their very next fight.
While that option may not exist for Araujo (Lauren Murphy and Joanne Calderwood fight next month to determine the next contender), this is indeed a massive test for the Brazilian and a tremendously intriguing contest that will tilt on whether or not Araujo can get inside Chookagian’s range. If she can, there is a road to victory available to her, and if not, she’ll be another solid fighter that fails to pass the flyweight division’s final exam.
Slobberknocker Central
Shane Burgos and Edson Barboza are set to face off on Saturday night in what is guaranteed to be a goddamn firefight in the featherweight division. Individually, neither man is capable of being in a boring fight, so, in theory, putting them together will be incredibly explosive.
Burgos is 6-2 in the Octagon, earning Fight of the Night bonuses in each of those losses, which came against Calvin Kattar and Josh Emmett. Barboza engaged in a pair of entertaining scraps in his first two featherweight assignments last year, dropping a debated split decision to Dan Ige before outworking Makwan Amirkhani five months later.
Things are fairly wide open in the division at the moment outside of the title picture, with everyone from Yair Rodriguez down in the rankings jockeying for position in the championship chase, including these two, who enter in need of very different things.
Burgos needs that signature victory that will carry him into the next tier of contenders, while Barboza is looking to climb into the position he occupied at lightweight for so long, if not higher, and that ratchets up the intensity and intriguing around this contest.
Additionally, Barboza feels like his championship window is closing, believing that this is the time for him to make a push towards the top of the division. Whether you believe that or not, the sense of urgency he conveyed when we spoke ahead of this fight was palpable and I fully expect him to come out looking as sharp and focused as ever.
Can Burgos secure the victory he needs to move forward? Will Barboza get another win and continue his push towards challenging for championship gold? How will this bout measure up to expectations?
I can’t wait for these questions to be answered.
Don’t Sleep on “Danger”
Don’t look now, but Matt Schnell is starting to put it all together.
The former MTV Caged star had a rough start too his UFC career, but since that two-fight skid, “Danger” has won five of his last six, with his only setback coming against top contender Alexandre Pantoja. Last time out, the 31-year-old Schnell delivered the best performance of his career, out-working Tyson Nam over 15 minutes in a split decision win that had no reason to be a split decision; Schnell won handily and his effort should have been recognized as such.
After spending a bunch of years doing his training camps in South Florida with the crew at American Top Team, the Louisiana native is now training at Fortis MMA in Dallas, working with Sayif Saud and the team. He’s always been a solid all-around fighter, blending quality scrambling abilities with clean hands, and it looks like he’s beginning to tighten it all up and get it all dialled in, which makes him one to keep tabs on in the flyweight division.
While this weekend’s bout with Rogerio Bontorin takes place at bantamweight, it’s a pairing between Top 10 fighters in the 125-pound weight class, and the winner should take another step towards title contention. Just a couple years ago, viewing Schnell as a potential championship challenger would have been wishful thinking, but with a victory on Saturday, thats’ exactly what he will be.
Fighter I Can’t Quit: Lando Vannata
There is no way I’m alone in this one.
While some of the athletes that land in this space are admittedly curious choices and competitors I alone might have undying interest in, there is no chance that I’m the only person that will forever be eager to tune in to see Lando Vannata step into the cage.
Vannata has one of the weirdest records of any active UFC fighter, brandishing a 3-5-2 mark through his first 10 appearances heading into his featherweight debut this weekend against Mike Grundy.
The shift in divisions is a bonus reason to tune in to this preliminary card pairing, as I’m interested to see what Vannata looks like at ‘45 following an extended run at ‘55 where he admitted he was a little lazy and unfocused in his preparations. Grundy isn’t the kind of guy that is going to let you off easy if you’re unprepared, so Vannata will need to be at his best if he wants to make his featherweight debut a successful one.
The “Groovy King” is endlessly entertaining and tremendously enjoyable to watch, and I’m fascinated to see if this move down a division sparks a run towards contention or just delivers another string of outstanding, thoroughly magnificent fights.
A Smaller Step Forward for Shevchenko
In addition to a delightful, truthful statement about the difficulty of competing with her little sister in martial arts, the most interesting comment Antonina Shevchenko made when we spoke a couple weeks back ahead of her fight this weekend against Andrea Lee was an acknowledgement that after each of her first two UFC wins, she was hustled up the ladder a little too quickly.
“There were two fights that I lost to girls who were ranked, and those fights were probably too soon for me. Now I think it’s good that I’m going step-by-step moving up,” she said, before adding that her aim is always to move forward.
That kind of honesty, that kind of introspection is crucial if a fighter genuinely wants to improve and keep advancing, which is what the elder Shevchenko wants to do.
Lee is a well-rounded, more experience mixed martial artist than Shevchenko, and a very good test for “La Pantera,” who is coming off a win over Ariane Lipski and failed to pass the Katlyn Chookagian exam before that. She is the precise type of seasoned, but not too dangerous opponent Shevchenko needs to beat in order to take another step forward, while also being fully capable of handing her another setback.
On a night filled with close pairings and compelling matchups, this is another, and it should provide some clarity about where each of these women sit in the flyweight division going forward.
I Want to Know More About… Gina Mazany
It’s not so much that I want to know more about Mazany, it’s that I want to see more from Mazany, who dropped to flyweight last time out, registering a third-round stoppage win over Rachael Ostovich.
Prior to that contest, Mazany and her fiancé, Tim Elliott, relocated to Missouri, teaming up with James Krause and the crew at Glory MMA & Fitness, and the immediate returns for each were promising. Now Mazany makes her second start at ‘25 and under Krause’s guidance, squaring off with Priscila Cachoeira, and I’m really eager to see what six months, more training, and a better weight management approach does for the female fighter on this card sporting the “Danger” sobriquet.
Cachoeira finally got into the win column in her last outing, stopping Shana Dobson in 40 seconds, and enters as the favorite, so if Mazany has levelled up and finally found the combination she needs to make the most of things, you have a chance to cash an underdog play too.