10 Things I Like at UFC 270
From a pair of mesmerizing title fights to a whole ton of debuts, this weekend's pay-per-view offers plenty of intriguing potential
This weekend’s UFC 270 fight card is actually quite good.
I know I’m the eternal optimist and it’s far more fashionable to call every offering the UFC puts forth garbage, but suggesting this card is trash seems like trying too hard to be salty about what’s on tap on Saturday night.
For all the nostalgia about “The Good Old Days” that fills the MMA Twitter space, the fact of the matter is that rarely did “The Good Old Days” feature pay-per-views with two championship bouts, nor could you watch every single fight on the card. And sure, the early prelims are made up almost exclusively of bouts between Dana White’s Contender Series alums (plus Kay Hansen), but they’re the early prelims, and if you’re judging the quality of this fight card by the cast of competitors filling out the early prelims, then you might not be judging the quality of this fight card fairly.
The main event is undeniably compelling, on a number of levels.
The co-main event has fascinating potential for a couple different reasons.
Yes, the main card has lost a couple fights, but the three non-title fights that remain all have some divisional significance and should be entertaining scraps, plus the four-pack of televised prelims have the potential to be excellent fights.
Maybe I’m the outlier (again) and you think everything I’ve said above is bullshit pandering, but I’m genuinely stoked for this fight card on Saturday, and these are the 10 Things I Like at UFC 270.
The Genuine Uncertainty of How the Main Event Will Play Out
I have absolutely no idea how Saturday’s heavyweight title unification bout between Francis Ngannou and Ciryl Gane is actually going to play out and that delights me. Like everyone else, I have my ideas, but I’ll be honest and tell you that there are four or five different scenarios dancing around in my head at the moment that all feel feasible, which is part of what makes this such an utterly compelling contest.
While I suppose you could say the same about most fights, I think we’d all agree that there are plenty of fights where folks can figure out how things will unfold; maybe not down to the blow-by-blow of how things finish or what the final significant strike totals will be, but who will emerge victorious, and in many cases, how.
But this one? There are too many possibilities, which is why it has been so frustrating to me that more attention hasn’t been paid to the actual dynamics of this matchup and how this fight might play out on Saturday in the build to this contest. We have two multi-faceted heavyweight standouts, with multiple paths to victory, and we want to fixate on the handful of times they sparred together several years ago, like it has a real influence on what will happen this weekend?
This is one of those fights where I’m going to feel nervous and tense as soon as the athletes start walking to the Octagon and that feeling isn’t going to subside until the fight is over, however that comes to pass.
Different Results Equal Different Directions
One of the many pieces that make the Ngannou-Gane clash so compelling is that depending on the result, the UFC heavyweight division could go in a couple different directions.
If Ngannou wins, we could be in for a long, drawn out battle between the undisputed champion and the promotion over pay, boxing opportunities, and sundry other issues. That would potentially put things right back where they were last August, when the interim championship was introduced and Gane claimed his piece of the title.
The optimist in me says the two sides will see there is too much at stake to remain stalemated for too long — that big fights in the Octagon and the boxing ring could make big bank for both sides, and rather than remain at loggerheads, they would come together to figure things out, even if the relationship remained a little chilly and strained.
A potential bout pitting Ngannou against Jon Jones would stand as the biggest fight the UFC could make, and maybe the biggest fight in UFC history, if they all parties could agree on a way to make it happen, but outside of that, the rest of the year would be about seeing if any new contenders emerged, as Ngannou would have already faced the next four men in the rankings.
If Gane wins, it’s a little bit of a fresh start for the division, despite the fact that “Bon Gamin” has already racked up seven UFC victories. He hasn’t faced Stipe Miocic or Curtis Blaydes, a rematch with Ngannou would certainly be on the table at some point (if he stuck around), and we’d still spend the year seeing which new contenders emerged.
Jones would still be an option too, though I’m not sure fighting Gane would be as appealing to “Bones” as a big money opportunity against Ngannou, whom he’s already jousted with on social media. Still, just having the potential of fresh matchups with Miocic, Blaydes, and Jones would create new energy in a division that, unfortunately, has frequently grown stale.
Both have interesting possibilities and finding out which potential road the division will travel in 2022 is another piece of what makes this such an interesting fight.
A Potential Classic, A Potential Quadrilogy
The first bout between Brandon Moreno and Deiveson Figueiredo was excellent; a late-year Fight of the Year contender that had the majority of the MMA audience excited for their rematch.
The second meeting between the two left something to be desired; Moreno was sharp from the outset and won in dominant fashion, but it felt like Figueiredo didn’t show up.
Saturday night, they meet for a third time, and from all the talking points and social media posts, it seems like the former champion-turned-challenger is coming with the kind of focus he carried in their initial encounter, which means Saturday’s co-main event has the potential to be an instant classic.
Moreno and Figueiredo are great dance partners — the former a little more technical, but with a proven ability to brawl and dig deep and bank on his toughness if need be, while the latter brandishes more power, more kinetic force in everything he does, and seems to struggle a little if he’s forced to be the nail instead of the hammer. Like the main event, this is a fight that could go any number of ways, with either man more than capable of earning a finish standing or on the ground or the judges being required to render the final verdict in a tight, competitive affair.
What’s most intriguing to me about this one, however, is the possibility of a fourth consecutive bout between the two should Figueiredo win in dominant fashion.
Think about it: the Brazilian is currently 0-1-1 with Moreno, having lost by submission last time out, and if he returns the favour this weekend, we'll have a series that is 1-1-1 with each man earning a finish, and a fourth fight would actually make a ton of sense.
Now, I’m not sure the UFC would want to do a fourth consecutive fight between the same competitors (or do it at all, for that matter), and I know the other contenders and hopefuls in the flyweight division would prefer the promotion move on from this duo holding having a stranglehold on championship fights, but you have to admit, a series that is evenly split through three fights producing a fourth meeting to settle things once and for all would be kind of cool.
Now I’m even more excited to see how things shake out on Saturday.
Michel Pereira, Welterweight Dark Horse?
Could Michel Pereira emerge as a title contender in 2022?
If you had asked me that question at the outset of his UFC run, I would have chuckled, said something dismissive and shitty like, “That’s cute” and then been surprised to hear you were actually serious, at which point I would have outlined all the reasons why I didn’t think “Demolidor” could potentially make push towards contention in the 170-pound weight class.
But now I’m the one asking the question and I don’t think a push into the Top 15 and some “he’s looking like an intriguing contender” chatter is out of the question for the Brazilian. What made me change my mind? The fact that Pereira largely changed his style.
He’s eschewed a lot of the whirling dervish act that made him an internet sensation and hardcore darling earlier in his career, trading it in for simply being a gigantic welterweight with sound technical skills, obvious power, and a physical presence that makes him difficult to contend with inside the Octagon. Over his last two fights, he’s made all-action terrors Khaos Williams and Niko Price dial back their output and aggression because he was able to keep them off balance by mixing in takedowns, a little bit of top control, and the odd submission attempt.
Pereira has won three straight and a victory on Saturday pushes that to four (no duh, Spencer), which would put him, in my opinion, within range of cracking the Top 15 or facing one of the men occupying the final three positions in that collection: Santiago Ponzinibbio, Li Jingliang, or Muslim Salikhov, his original opponent for last weekend’s opener before he was forced out, replaced by Andre Fialho, and the fight was shuffled back a week.
A victory there makes him a genuine person of interest in the 170-pound weight class, and give the rate at which Kamaru Usman is dispatching contenders, we’re getting closer to the point where anyone in the Top 10 with a lengthy winning streak or a couple quality wins could get a look, so Pereira being in the mix isn’t as far off as it may seem.
Major Opportunities for Newcomers Fialho, Henry
Andre Fialho and Victor Henry have the chance to make an immediate impact in their respective divisions this weekend, as they step into the Octagon for the first time.
Fialho tagged in for Salikhov as mentioned above, jumping in opposite Pereira with designs on continuing his impressive run from 2021, which saw him dispatch four opponents, three in the first round, and bookend his campaign with big finishes over former UFC fighters James Vick and Stefan Sekulic. The 27-year-old from Portugal is 14-3 overall, trains with a great group at Sanford MMA, and two of his three career setbacks have come against current UFC fighters.
Henry makes his first trip into the Octagon sporting a 21-5 record and coming off a win over former UFC competitor Albert Morales. The 34-year-old comes from a catch wrestling background and has competed primarily outside of the United States, but has a resume checkered with fights against familiar names, including a win over Kyler Phillips. After agreeing to step in for Trevin Jones last year opposite Raoni Barcelos, the bantamweight pairing was kept intact even when the fight was shuffled back to this weekend.
Debuting fighters don’t often get the chance to dive right into the thick of things in their first foray into the Octagon, not unless they’re established names finally migrating to the UFC, like Michael Chandler last year. But Fialho and Henry have the opportunity to face off with tenured talents not far from the Top 15 in two of the deeper, more competitive divisions there are, and a victory for either (or both) would catapult them into a position for an even bigger opportunity next time out.
What I really love about these two fights and these two debuts is that neither guy has to win in order for us to get a good sense of where they fit in the division and what to potentially expect going forward. They’re facing quality competition, and a strong showing, even in defeat, will likely tell us more about both Fialho and Henry than a dominant effort against a lower-tier opponent would. These are low risk, high reward opportunities and I expect both come out Saturday looking to impress.
Further Bantamweight Sorting
If you’ve read this newsletter in the last few months (or longer), you know how I feel about the bantamweight division. If you’re new here, welcome, thanks for reading, and I absolutely adore the UFC’s 135-pound weight class.
Saturday’s main card features a bantamweight pairing between veteran Cody Stamann and emerging Russian Said Nurmagomedov in what should produce further clarity about how things line up in the bantamweight hierarchy heading into the second month of 2022 action inside the Octagon.
Stamann, as I wrote yesterday, is one of those guys that I don’t think enough people appreciate given the tough slate he’s faced and his overall steadiness, while Nurmagomedov is 29 years old, 14-2 overall, and coming off a 51-second knockout win. He came up short in his toughest UFC test to date (against Barcelos) and hasn’t fought since October 2020, so this is a sharp test to return to, but also the kind of assignment that, if he passes, says a lot about where the New Jersey-based question mark fits in the overall bantamweight picture.
There are two other bantamweight pairings on this weekend’s card — Barcelos vs. Henry, and Tony Gravely vs. Saimon Oliveira — with at least seven more in the works for February, and that’s before getting into all the action that should transpire inside the Top 15 within the first four months of this year.
It’s going to be a busy, entertaining year in the bantamweight division, and any chance to get further clarification of how things line up is something I’m excited to see.
Another Rodolfo Vieira Appearance
Consider this my first “Fighter I Can’t Quit” instalment of 2022. Here’s why my interest in Rodolfo Vieira persists:
After suffering the first loss of his career last February — by submission, no less — he came back and was able to push into the third round against Dustin Stoltzfus, securing a submission win over his own to move to 8-1 overall. He’s acknowledged his shortcomings, is still less than 10 fights into his professional MMA career, and was just too damn dominant on the grappling mats for me to make a more concrete assessment of where he fits in the consistently underwhelming middleweight division at this time.
While I don’t think he’ll ever become the Demian Maia replacement I would love for him to become, I also don’t think he’s destined to be a lower-third of the division guy like he’s been thus far, and while a win over Wellington Turman on Saturday doesn’t necessarily scream “Look out Top 15!” it’s also another step in the right direction for Vieira, and at this stage in his development, that’s what matters most.
That said, if he loses, he might also become the first fighter I officially quit in 2022 as well.
Early Start for Ilia Topuria
I’ve been enamoured with Ilia Topuria since his short-notice debut win over Youssef Zalal in October 2020. I’ve written about his upside as a prospect multiple times, labelling him as my top featherweight prospect heading into last year and maintaining that stance today, while including him in Fighters on the Rise each time he competes, including this week.
When I spoke to him ahead of his sophomore appearance in the Octagon against Damon Jackson, Topuria assuredly told me, “I know that in a maximum of two years, I am going to be UFC champion; I don’t have any doubts about this.”
That fight took place on December 5, 2020, which means he’s got a little less than a year to reach his goal in that two-year window. While I’m not sure that happens just because he was only able to compete once last year and featherweight has been bogged down at the top for a little while now, I love that he’s getting an early start to his 2022 campaign, because if he is going to make a run towards the top of the division before the year is out, earning a victory this weekend is a great place to start.
Originally scheduled to face Movsar Evloev, Topuria now faces French-Canadian Charles Jourdain, an exciting, attacking 26-year-old coming off a dominant effort on the final event of 2021. It’s a dangerous fight against a short-notice replacement, but also the type of matchup where a big effort from the 24-year-old Topuria would speak volumes about where he stands in the division.
While a lot of people are disappointed this one isn’t on the main card, count me amongst those that are excited that it’s not because that just means I don’t have to wait as long to see how things shake out on Saturday.
DWCS Class of ‘21 Debuts in Earnest
Five of the 39 fighters to earn contracts on Season 5 of Dana White’s Contender Series will make their first appearance inside the Octagon on Saturday night: Michael Morales, Jack Della Maddalena, Saimon Oliveira, Genaro Valdez, and Jasmine Jasudavicius.
A sixth fighter, Silvana Juarez, was scheduled to appear on the annual talent-search series, but was pulled into a UFC assignment a week early against Loopy Godinez.
When I put together my Fighters to Watch series for this year, I made a point of staying away from members of the Class of ‘21 because I want to see them compete on the big stage a time or two in order to get a better read on their talents, their upside, and where they may land in their respective divisions. We’ve already seen four members of last year’s collection of contract winners make their first forays into the Octagon, with two fighters earning victories and two catching losses, but Saturday’s event will be a chance to get a good look at a good percentage of Season 5’s graduates and that intrigues me.
There are a couple in this group that I think have solid long-term potential (Morales, Della Maddalena), but as I said, rather than being all-in on any of these new arrivals, I want a couple opportunities to see them compete because fighting at this level, with this much attention is entirely different than anything they’ve done before, and I don’t think we can make a real assessment of what direction an athlete’s career may go before seeing them make that walk a couple of times.
Tough Assignments for DWCS Alums
Part of the reason I’ve opted to take more of a “wait and see” approach with last year’s graduating class is because the opening assignments for many of these newcomers are going to be more difficult than the initial matchups many of the folks that graduated in previous years faced.
Sean O’Malley faced Terrion Ware. Geoff Neal squared off against Brian Camozzi. Antonina Shevchenko landed opposite Ji Yeon Kim. Jamahal Hill fought Darko Stosic. Adrian Yanez was initially paired off with Aaron Phillips before ultimately facing fellow newcomer Victor Rodriguez.
Each of those newcomers were put in a position to win, and it was rare to see a Contender Series grad lose their first appearance in the Octagon through the first couple seasons.
This week’s debuting class are facing a different class of opponents:
Trevin Giles (vs. Morales): 5-3 in the UFC, 14-3 overall
Pete Rodriguez (vs. Della Maddalena): UFC debut, 4-0 overall
Tony Gravely (vs. Oliveira): 2-2 UFC, 21-7 overall
Matt Frevola (vs. Valdez): 2-3-1 UFC, 8-3-1 overall
Kay Hansen (vs. Jasudavicius): 1-1 UFC, 7-4 overall
Only Della Maddalena is scheduled to face a fellow newcomer, but he was also initially slated to face the most experienced opponent of the group before Warlley Alves (8-5 UFC, 14-5 overall) was forced to withdraw.
This latest graduating class isn’t getting the soft entry some of the previous graduates received; instead they’re getting tossed into tough fights that will instantly show whether they have what it takes to compete at this level long-term, which is the right approach in my opinion. Not only do I love it for the newcomers, but I love it for their opponents as well, because this is a chance for all five of these competitors (two of whom are DWCS grads themselves) to step in against athletes that are getting a little bit of an initial push and show out themselves, which is all you can ask for these days.
I know folks dislike or disapprove of the Contender Series for myriad reasons, but it has produced some quality talent thus far, and should continue to help unearth some more solid prospects going forward. At the same time, the days of fighters from the series having a long leash and getting somewhat favourable bookings to start their UFC careers appear to be over, so if they can’t hack it, they likely won’t stick around all that long, which is how things should always work at this level.