10 Things I Like at UFC Vegas 28
Next weekend's pay-per-view has the big names and the big buzz, but Saturday's fight card offers some intriguing matchups and compelling names to track
Let’s be honest with one another: a lot of people have already skipped out on this card, focusing their attention on UFC 263 next week, as well as this weekend’s exhibition between Floyd Mayweather Jr. and Logan Paul, the NBA and NHL Playoffs, and enjoying the first weekend of June outside in the sun.
It’s cool and I’m not going to begrudge anyone for the fight card choices they make, just as I would hope no one decides to chirp me for actually being interested in what’s happening on Saturday night at the UFC APEX.
If you’ve been reading this newsletter since its inception or any of my work elsewhere before this, you know that I’m a long-range thinker, so while there aren’t many matchups between ranked opponents or critical divisional battles on tap this weekend, there are a couple key fights that could prove to be pivotal down the road, as well as a few intriguing names that I want to see compete again in order to get a better understanding of where they fit in their respective divisions and what kind of upside they might have.
Plus there wasn’t an event last weekend and the idea of going consecutive weeks without logging serious time in my office on Saturday seems really strange to me.
Here’s a look at what I like this weekend at UFC Vegas 28.
Big Moment for “Big Boy”
Jairzinho Rozenstruik had an outstanding rookie campaign inside the Octagon, registering four wins in 11 months to rocket into contention in the heavyweight division. After getting bum-rushed by Francis Ngannou at UFC 249, the striker from Suriname rebounded with another stoppage victory, taking out former champ Junior Dos Santos to move to 5-1 in the UFC and 11-1 overall.
Last time out, “Bigi Boy” laid an egg against Ciryl Gane, spending five rounds with his weapons largely holstered while losing a tepid decision to the hard-charging French contender, setting up this critical pairing with Augusto Sakai that headlines Saturday events.
Fair or not, Rozenstruik’s resume doesn’t look as good now as it did initially and he needs a victory here to really cement his standing as a legitimate Top 10 heavyweight.
His last-second walk-off win over Alistair Overeem always felt shaky, as you could argue Overeem wasn’t done-done and if the bout went to the cards, Rozenstruik was losing a decision, and while “Cigano” is a all-time Top 10 UFC heavyweight, these last few years have been tremendously difficult for Dos Santos, who lost a fourth straight after facing Rozenstruik before being released.
While Sakai comes into this one off a loss as well, his floor has been established and he’s the kind of durable, steady competitor that can expose those that aren’t at their best or locked in on fight night. He’s also the kind of guy you have to beat if you want to show people that you deserve a place in the title conversation, and with the championship picture a little cloudy at the moment, a win here would set Rozenstruik up for a marquee assignment in the second half of the year.
If that’s what he’s seeking, “Bigi Boy” needs to handle his business on Saturday.
Can Walt Harris Get Right?
A little less than two years ago, Walt Harris followed up his 50-second stoppage win over Serghei Spivac with a 12-second icing of Aleksei Oleinik, pushing his unbeaten streak to four, and elevating him into the thick of the chase in the heavyweight division for the first time in his career. A gifted athlete still learning how to put everything together, it looked like “The Big Ticket” was ready to take the next step.
And then tragedy struck, as his daughter Aniah Blanchard was kidnapped and killed just a few months before he was scheduled to face Alistair Overeem in his first main event assignment.
Harris returned to action last May, losing to Overeem in an emotional fight where it would have taken a Herculean effort for him to not be impacted by everything that had transpired when he stepped into the Octagon. Six months later, he was back in there, suffering a second-round stoppage loss to Alexander Volkov. Now he faces Polish veteran Marcin Tybura, who enters Saturday’s contest on the quietest four-fight winning streak going in the UFC right now.
If Harris is going to get right and go on a run, it needs to start this weekend, as he turns 38 next week and it will be difficult to make up the ground lost to a three-fight slide. He finished his camp with the crew at Xtreme Couture in Las Vegas, which I think could be really influential, and he’s the more physically gifted, powerful fighter in this pairing, so there are paths to victory for him on Saturday.
It’s genuinely gut-wrenching thinking about what Harris and his family went through (and continue to live with today) and, to a much, much lesser extent, how it ricocheted through his career (understandably) and cut him down just as he was reaching new heights.
My hope is that Harris, now more than a year removed from the tragic loss of his daughter, can get right and get a chance to make a run, and we should find out if that’s in the cards on Saturday.
Perfect Pairing: Ponzinibbio vs. Baeza
The best fight on Saturday’s main card is a welterweight pairing between Santiago Ponzinibbio and Miguel Baeza that feels like a perfect bit of matchmaking to me. Here’s why from my breakdown of the the June fights that intrigue me most:
Regardless of how this one shakes out, there is a positive result for the 170-pound weight class, as either Ponzinibbio gets back in the win column and returns to being a factor in the Top 15 or Baeza keeps rolling, knocking off his most high-profile opponent to date, and secures himself another step up in competition next time out.
Now, my intrigue is also piqued because I spoke to both Ponzinibbio and Baeza ahead of this matchup, with both offering great insights about their mindset and expectations heading into this one, but even if I didn’t jump on the phone with these two, I’d still be extremely pumped to see how it plays out on Saturday.
Baeza is unbeaten and rolling, with three finishes in as many appearances in the UFC, while Ponzinibbio got stopped last time out in his first appearance in 26 months. Having shaken off the rust, it’ll be interesting to see how the long-time Top 10 fixture looks in his second fight back, while you better believe Baeza will get a significant boost if he knocks off “The Argentine Dagger” this weekend.
Fighter I Can’t Quit: Tom Breese
British middleweight Tom Breese might be the archetype for this category — a guy I have been in on from the outset and will forever be watching, believing he’s one or two fights away from really stringing something together and making a run.
Injuries and anxiety threw a monkey wrench into his development and activity for a couple years, and inconsistency since beginning his career with 10 consecutive victories have kept him from ever making real headway in either the welterweight or middleweight ranks. Of late, each great outing has been chased by a setback — putting KB Bhullar down with a jab and earning a Performance of the Night bonus in Abu Dhabi, only to be followed by a second-round submission loss to Omari Akhmedov three months later.
This weekend, Breese faces Antonio Arroyo in another one of those matchups that traditionally has netted the Birmingham native a big, shiny stoppage victory, as the Brazilian is 0-2 in the Octagon since graduating from the Contender Series (Class of ‘19) and had trouble keeping things upright against an increasingly tired Deron Winn last time out.
I’m telling you right now, in the spirit of friendship and full disclosure: if Breese puts up a big effort and gets another finish, there will be a longer-than-necessary section devoted to his victory and discussing how, at 29, he still has time to put together the kind of run that carries him into title contention on Saturday.
Consider yourself warned.
Crucial Clash for De La Rosa, Lipski
Montana De La Rosa and Ariane Lipski face off in the final preliminary card bout of the night on Saturday, with both women looking to establish a lane for themselves in the flyweight division.
Neither is currently ranked, neither earned a victory last time out, and neither has shown the kind of consistent effort needed to make real headway in the division this point in their respective careers, but given that they’re 26 and 27 respectively, each profiles as a potential “post-hype sleeper” to me, to steal a term from fantasy sports analysis, with Lipski fitting the description a little more completely than De La Rosa.
Basically, a post-hype sleeper is someone that had some buzz for one or two seasons, failed to produce, and then became appealing again because of a change of scenery, better situation, or further development.
De La Rosa is 4-2-1 in seven UFC starts, going winless against the best competition she’s faced, while showing the kind of grit and toughness you can’t teach. She has a good foundation, long limbs that make her tricky to deal with at times, and is the kind of plus athlete that could, in theory, develop into something more with the right coaching, training partners, and a little bit of good fortune.
Lipski carried a ton of hype after smashing folks in KSW, but she’s 2-3 in the Octagon, and like De La Rosa, has struggled against the best competition she’s faced, following up her vicious kneebar submission win over Luana Carolina with a flat effort against Valentina Shevchenko where she was finished in the second round.
There is space in this division for more than a couple fighters to find their footing and work their way into contention, and I’m interested in seeing which of these two use Saturday’s contest as an opportunity to claim one of those spots for themselves and potentially start making a climb towards the Top 15.
After a Step Back, Can Tanner Boser Step Forward Again?
There is a stick-and-ball sports cliche that you have to experience playoff heartbreak before you experience playoff joy. It’s mostly untrue and dumb and forced, but stripped to its core, I think the base idea has merit, especially in a sport like MMA where no one (save for Khabib and Jon Jones) go undefeated.
Everyone has to take an L at some point — or more likely, a couple Ls at a couple different points — in order to learn from those mistakes, make adjustments, and advance to the next stage of their careers.
Saturday night, I’m curious to see if Tanner Boser is walking into one of those “took a step back, now he’s about to take a step forward” moments as he takes on Ilir Latifi.
Last time out, Boser dropped a close, maybe questionable decision to Andrei Arlovski in a fight where neither guy showed much urgency or really worked to take command of the fight. They were both just outside of range the whole time, landing limited strikes, resulting in a slow, awkward 15-minute affair where the Albertan’s post-fight gripes about not getting the nod largely fell on deaf ears because even if out-landed Arlovski according to the stats, no one came away from that fight feeling like Boser got robbed.
The 29-year-old from Bonnyville looked great in his two previous appearances, registering first-round finishes of Philipe Lins and Raphael Pessoa a month apart, and he has the kind of extensive experience on the regional circuit that instantly casts him as the kind of guy that can have a long-term future in the middle of the heavyweight division as a sturdy, solid litmus test to put in front of emerging hopefuls.
But he also could be more than that, especially if that loss to Arlovski becomes a teachable moment that prompts Boser to be more active and more aggressive. He clearly has power and is more nimble and agile than many of his heavyweight counterparts, plus he’s younger, which works in his favor as well.
Saturday’s bout with Latifi is one where he’ll need to be sharp and mobile, as “The Sledgehammer” will most assuredly be looking to get inside and put Boser on the canvas, or at the very least, tie him up in the clinch for long stretches. If he’s taken the lessons from his latest loss to heart, this is an opportunity for Boser to make a statement and take a step forward in the heavyweight division — the one many thought he was going to take last time out — and I really want to see if he can do it.
Makwan Amirkhani is Fighting
Please know that what I’m about to say is said with the upmost respect and admiration, and not as a slight or knock.
Makwan Amirkhani is the fighting equivalent of that flawed, okay-at-best movie that you absolutely love and will watch any time it’s on or you’re in need of something playing the background while you have a mid-day nap on the couch.
For me, that makes him Draft Day or Easy A or Zootopia — flicks I’ve seen a combined 67-75 times and always thoroughly enjoy, even though I know all the beats and recognize their shortcomings.
There was a time when I thought Amirkhani could be a contender — he debuted by kicking Andy Ogle in the face and collecting an eight-second stoppage win, then turned up to the press conference dressed like a charming scoundrel, flashing his wit and charisma that made everyone, not just me, think “This guy might have something.”
It hasn’t materialized, for multiple reasons, including inconsistent appearances and inconsistent performances, but regardless of his falling short of my highest potential projections, I still look forward to seeing “Mr. Finland” step into the Octagon, especially in matchups like the one he has Saturday against short-notice replacement and UFC newcomer Kamuela Kirk.
Historically speaking, these are the fights where Amirkhani shines — the bouts where he’s the superior talent or has a clear path to victory that he can venture down early, before the gas tank runs empty and his shortcomings surface. He’s not a guy that should be in there with Top 15 talent; not unless you’re looking to get that Top 15 fighter a victory. He’s someone that is perfectly suited to living just outside the rankings, putting on a couple entertaining fights a year without prompting you to get your hopes up that he’s finally going to figure it all out and go on a run.
Just like every movie doesn’t have to be a universe-building blockbuster or Academy Award contender, not all fighters have to be future challengers or Top 15 talents in order for them to have a place on the UFC roster. You need guys like Amirkhani in every division and I’m excited to watch he and those like him compete every time they step into the Octagon.
Take Two for Mason Jones
Mason Jones arrived in the UFC as an undefeated prospect with an abundance of upside; a former two-weight champ under the Cage Warriors banner with the potential to be a future factor in the lightweight division.
Earlier this year, he lost his debut to Mike “Beast Boy” Davis in an entertaining back-and-forth scrap that is currently shortlisted for Fight of the Year consideration and showed how rugged, durable, and gritty both men are. I also think it’s one of those fights we’re going to look back on in a couple years and think “man, that wasn’t a bad loss at all” because Davis has some upside in the 155-pound division as well, and it feels like that fight will age nicely.
“The Dragon” makes his second walk to the Octagon this weekend, taking on Brazilian veteran Alan Patrick in a preliminary card fight that has my attention. Patrick is long and experienced — the kind of veteran guy that could ruin your night if you’re not careful — but he’s also the type of older, shopworn holdover a kid like Jones should beat — and beat handily if he’s going to be anywhere as good as I think he could potentially become.
As I said off the top, I always have an eye towards two, three, four years down the road, especially with cards like this, and this matchup is a perfect example of why I tune in to an event like this.
The only way to know more about these neophytes and hopefuls is to see them in action, and the best way to ensure that no one is able to “come out of nowhere” to be someone to pay attention to is to pay attention to them in these early stages of their UFC careers.
Important Fight for Featherweight Hopefuls
Sean Woodson and Youseff Zalal both had solid starts to their UFC careers, with Woodson lighting up Kyle Bochniak in his debut and Zalal posting three wins in seven months last year to emerge as one to watch in the featherweight division.
Saturday night when they square off, each is looking for a return to form — Woodson after starting quickly, fading, and getting finished by Julian Erosa; Zalal having dropped consecutive outings while getting away from what got him off to that hot start in the first place.
Both have intriguing potential — Woodson because of his unique size for the division; Zalall because he’s still quite young and already shown flashes of Top 15 upside — and they train with teams that often work together, as Woodson trains with James Krause and Co. at Glory MMA & Fitness while Zalal is a Factory X Muay Thai representative. It’s a fun little wrinkle built into what should be a fun little fight and one that I believe will signal the start of an improved run of success inside the Octagon for the victor.
Featherweight is both loaded with talent and stalled at the top at the moment, which makes it a little more challenging to forecast a path forward for anyone outside of the Top 10 at the moment, but it’s also tied with middleweight for being the most active division thus far in 2021 (26 fights), so there should be plenty more opportunities to compete and keep moving forward in the second half of the year.
I Want to Know More About… Jordan Leavitt
When this is how you finish your UFC debut, I’m automatically tuning in to see the encore:
I was in on Jordan Leavitt before he slammed Matt Wiman into the canvas, instantly sending him into the Odinsleep, because he’s an undefeated lightweight prospect from a good camp (Syndicate MMA) that looked very good on the Contender Series, but after showing all the way the fuck out in his debut, how could you not be hyped about seeing him return?
Now, you can quibble with where his bout with Claudio Puelles has been placed on this fight card, and I certainly wouldn’t try to counter your arguments, but he’s still stepping into the Octagon on Saturday and regardless of whether he’s in the first fight or the last fight I’m tuning in to watch that fight because I want to see what else “The Monkey King” is going to bring to the table.
Leavitt is one of those unassuming, zero flash dudes that just so happens to be a monster on the ground and a really intriguing lightweight prospect. He’s not particularly active on Twitter and his Instagram account is filled with shots of him training, posing with teammates for intentionally goofy/awkward/funny photos, and pictures of “The Heir to the Monkey Kingdom,” his baby daughter, Princess Josephine.
But when he steps into the cage, the dude is all kinds of dangerous and in a division where he should be afforded the opportunity to progress slowly and build his skills and his resume simultaneously, I want to be sure and catch every appearance in order to track his progress and see if Leavitt can eventually become a contender in the 155-pound weight class.