10 Things I Like at UFC Vegas 30
Detailing the different athletes and matchups that intriguing me on this weekend's fight card the UFC APEX
The Impressive Start of Ciryl Gane
Heavyweight contender Ciryl Gane has been one of the more fascinating additions to the UFC roster in the last handful of years — an MMA neophyte with abundant talent and upside, coming out of the same gym that initially put Francis Ngannou on the map.
Through his first five UFC starts, Gane has gone 5-0 with three finishes and a clean sweep of the scorecards against knockout artist Jairzinho Rozenstruik in his first main event assignment. This weekend, he squares off with fellow Top 5 heavyweight Alexander Volkov in a critical, yet confusing matchup where the winner should be in line for a title shot, but won’t be because have you seen the state of the heavyweight division at the moment?
What has been most impressive to me about the 31-year-old “Bon Gamin” is how he looks like a seasoned vet inside the Octagon every time out, regardless of the matchup or situation. He wrestles when he needs to wrestle, attacks when he needs to attack, and shows patience when being patient is what is called for, and it’s all ultra-impressive given that he hasn’t even been competing in MMA professionally for four years yet.
As I wrote yesterday, I believe Gane is a better prospect now than Ngannou was at a similar point in his ascent — he has more tools, more diversity to his game — and I’m fascinated to see how he approach this difficult assignment on Saturday.
An Important Fight for Alexander Volkov
Every division has one or two individuals that are better than 97% of the fighters in the weight class, but can’t get by that final three percent, and therefore never quite rise above No. 4 or 5 in the rankings, save for the occasional blip.
This weekend feels like Volkov’s last chance to clear that final hurdle, as he’s earned seven victories against two losses in the UFC, but those two losses have come against the two best opponents he’s faced thus far and two of the four men ahead of him in the rankings, Derrick Lewis and Curtis Blaydes. He faces one of the others ahead of him on Saturday in Gane (Stipe Miocic is the other) and if he goes 0-3 against the guys standing between him and the top of the division, “Drago” could get permanently positioned as that top end guy that just can’t quite get over the hump.
To be clear: being the fifth- or sixth-best heavyweight in the UFC for multiple years on end while winning 70% of your fights is truly impressive and something that should be commend more than it is, but in today’s “First or Last, Championship or Bust” culture, cats like that never quite get their due, as folks would rather fixate on the smattering of losses than the collection of triumphs.
Because this is heavyweight we’re talking about and because Volkov is only 32 (not gonna lie, that’s kind of surprising), he could, in theory, compete for another 8-10 years, which would present some opportunities to hit the reset button and take another run at that pesky final hurdle.
But for the time being, Saturday’s fight with Gane feels like a tremendously important one for the towering Russian.
A Total Random, Fun Fight
My guess is that people are going to slag the UFC for dropping a heavyweight fight between Tanner Boser and long-time light heavyweight Ovince Saint Preux into the co-main event slot this weekend, lamenting that Boser has dropped two straight and OSP is a natural 205’er whose last heavyweight adventure didn’t end well.
I get it, but I also know there are lots of times when other organizations do random, “Hey Why Not?” fights like this and get praise because sometimes you best way to deal with a messy situation is to just do something fun, and that’s exactly what the UFC is going here.
Saint Preux was supposed to fight Maxim Grishin, who ran into visa issues, so rather than pull him off the card or put him in there with a light heavyweight newcomer just signed to the roster, they offered him Boser, who has been chomping at the bit to get back into the cage since losing a second straight disappointing decision where you could make a case he should have won the fight.
Here’s the other thing: I’m genuinely curious about what a 230-pound OSP making the permanent move to heavyweight could look like.
We spoke last week (story on UFC.com later this week) and he said 215 would be his ideal weight class at this stage of his career, but that facing a guy like Boser that isn’t the biggest heavyweight in the division is a totally different look and feel than facing a gargantuan human being like Ben Rothwell, whom he faced last May in his first heavyweight foray.
Do I think he can be world champion? No, primarily because he’s 38 years old and there are younger, faster, stronger guys in the division that he’d have to contender with.
Do I think he could be an intriguing addition competing on the lighter side of the division, bulking out main cards against other 10-20 heavyweights? I most certainly do.
A Little Bit of Shine for Raoni Barcelos
Here’s what I wrote about Brazilian Raoni Barcelos, who faces Timur Valiev on Saturday’s main card, back in January in the Fighters to Watch series:
It is absolutely bonkers to me that more people haven’t been checking for Barcelos before now because it’s not like he’s someone that just appeared out of nowhere; the guy was the RFA featherweight champ and fought good competition to reach that point before graduating to the UFC.
Since entering the Octagon, all the 33-year-old Brazilian has done is go 5-0, pushing his winning streak to nine and setting up a bout with his countryman Assuncao late next month.
A sixth straight victory over someone as established and respected as (Raphael) Assuncao would elevate Barcelos from “emerging” to “in the mix,” and one more win would make him a contender, so I recommend all of you that haven’t been paying attention remedy that right now.
The fight with Assuncao never materialized as the veteran got hurt and then Barcelos got COVID, so this weekend is his 2021 debut, but everything else remains true and real and mind-blowing to me.
We fall all over ourselves for some of these young, unproven competitors because they do flashy things, talk all kinds of junk, or flex their social media skills on the regular, but quiet, unassuming bad-asses like Barcelos fly under the radar all too often, so it’s dope to see him getting a main card assignment against a quality opponent this weekend.
He’s a little older than most emerging fighters (34) but the skills are there for him to be a dark horse in the loaded bantamweight division over the next 12-18 months, so pay close attention.
An Andre Fili Appreciation Post
I love me some Andre Fili; always have and always will.
Glass half empty types will choose to cast the Team Alpha Male staple as one of those guys that could never quite put it all together and make a real run, which is certainly one way to look at his UFC career. Heading into Saturday’s bout with Daniel Pineda, the man who turns 31 tomorrow is 9-7 in 16 starts, never winning more than two straight, while also never catching consecutive losses.
Glass half full types like myself, however, will look at those seven setbacks and note that they include fights with Max Holloway on his ascent to the throne, Yair Rodriguez, Calvin Kattar, a suspect split decision loss to Michael Johnson, and losses to emerging youngsters Sodiq Yusuff and Bryce Mitchell, along with victories over Charles Jourdain, Sheymon Moraes, Myles Jury, and Artem Lobov.
Fili is a prototypical gatekeeper in the featherweight division — that difficult test you have to pass if you hope to break into the Top 15 — and while some people dismiss that position or dislike that designation, it’s good work if you can get it and there is no shame in having the kind of career Fili has put together thus far.
He’s grown considerably as a fighter throughout his UFC tenure and while I’m sure he would have liked a couple more fights to go his way and to be a little higher up in the divisional hierarchy, that doesn’t mean we can’t appreciate what he brings to the table every time out and show him some love heading into the weekend.
Fighter I Can’t Quit: Renato Moicano
There were moments in each of Renato Moicano’s last two losses that made him the obvious FICQ selection for this weekend, where he fights Jai Herbert in the main card opener.
Heading into his fight with Chan Sung Jung, I tweeted something about “Are we sure TKZ is as good as we say he is?” and questioned the veracity of his power, right before he sparked the Brazilian in 58 seconds.
Two fights later, midway through his lightweight scrap with Rafael Fiziev, I was all set to hit send on a tweet that said, “People forget how good Renato Moicano is and who he’s been in there with,” at which point Fiziev knocked him out cold.
I’ve been aboard this ship from the outset, when the only guy to beat him was Brian Ortega and folks were sleeping on his win over Calvin Kattar, and despite there being some clear holes in the hull, I’m not jumping overboard yet.
Encore Opportunity for Kennedy Nzechukwu
If you’re looking for a long-term project in the light heavyweight division to peg as your potential future champion (you heard me), you should probably consider Kennedy Nzechukwu.
The Fortis MMA product steps in this weekend on short notice, filling in opposite Danilo Marques in a bout that closes out the prelims, looking to build on his second-round knockout win over Carlos Ulberg from UFC 259.
Here’s the thing with the 29-year-old light heavyweight: he’s still just a baby in this sport, but all his intangibles, all those pieces you can’t learn that make a fighter capable of achieving great things, Nzechukwu has them in spades, so if the skills and self-belief ever catch up to the heart, tenacity, and overall toughness he possesses, the “African Savage” is going to be a handful for anyone in the 205-pound weight class.
This is a good test for him and of where he’s at in his development, as Marques is a good grappler who could put Nzechukwu on his back for 15 minutes and grind out a win, so we should get a look at where that takedown defence is at now and how effective he can be using his long jab and stinging strikes to dictate the terms of engagement.
After taking everything Ulberg could throw at him and putting the City Kickboxing representative down in early March, this is a smart step up and good opportunity for Nzechukwu to show what kind of upside he has in the light heavyweight division, which I personally think is a lot.
I Want to Know More About… Shavkat Rakhmonov
When you show up and choke out Alex “Cowboy” Oliveira in the first round of your promotional debut, you have my attention.
Shavkat Rakhmonov is an undefeated welterweight prospect on the rise, a 26-year-old with 13 straight wins since turning pro and an abundance of upside heading into his sophomore appearance this weekend against Michel Prazeres.
It’s a curious booking to me, going from subbing Oliveira — a divisional stalwart and dangerous test — to facing the returning Prazeres, who hasn’t fought since 2019, and is coming off both a loss and a suspension, but another chance to see Rakhmonov cook is another chance to see Rakhmonov cook and I’m here for it. My guess is also that his manager, Daniel Rubenstein, didn’t want Rakhmonov to sit on the sidelines too long and get stuck in the same “having trouble finding dance partners” pattern several of his other emerging athletes are encountering at the moment.
If “Nomad” rolls out and racks up another victory, particularly another tremendously impressive victory like he scored in his debut, he should rocket towards the top of the list of up-and-coming talents in the 170-pound ranks and become someone even more people want to know more about in the second half of the year.
Warlley Alves’ Next Chapter
I was in attendance the night Warlley Alves choked out Colby Covington just 86 seconds into the first round.
While the brash contender will tell you he was dealing with a rib issue and should have backed out of the fight, but didn’t because that’s not something he does, I will tell you that how quickly Alves made Covington pay for shooting with his head on the outside remains burned in my brain as a constant reminder of how gifted the former Ultimate Fighter: Brazil winner can be at times inside the Octagon. Now, I’ve also watched more than a few lackadaisical efforts from Alves where he seemed to have limit interest and an even more limited gas tank, which serve as a constant reminder of how bad it can be at times as well.
But Alves looked like his old self in January — locked in, aggressive, quick, dangerous — when he took the fight to Mounir Lazzez and folded him over along the fence with a series of heavy body kicks just over a minute into the opening round.
In speaking with him ahead of his bout on Saturday with Jeremiah Wells, he acknowledged having dropped the ball in his training, preparation, and focus for a number of years, resulting in the inconsistency that marks the last several years of his career. Fully healthy after tearing his biceps muscle in February 2020 and back in the win column, he envisions this year as the start of a march towards contention, and hopefully another chance to face Covington, just because he dislikes him that much and really wants to shut him up once and for all.
All of that appeals to me, intrigues me, and excites me, so I will be watching this one closely this weekend.
Another Appearance for Julia Avila
Julia Avila hit me with one of my favorite lines of the year when we spoke ahead of her rescheduled fight this weekend with Julija Stoliarenko, telling me the following when talking about her loss to Sijara “SarJ” Eubanks last year:
“I don’t know what I don’t know until I test myself, and I don’t have that many fights under my belt. A lot of them are first-round finishes and I’m grateful, I’m fortunate, and I don’t want every fight to go the distance, but I didn’t know I had horrible takedown defense until I fought ‘SarJ,’ right?”
That’s some genuine honesty and serious self-awareness, two things that not all fighters (or people for that matter) are capable of exhibiting, especially in conversation with another human being.
Just 10 fights into her professional career, Avila is one of those tantalizing fighters where the good has been really impressive and exciting, making you think about how far she could go, only to have the bad make you remember she’s still a little green and question if she has the time to catch up to her contemporaries and make a real run.
Those good moments — a decision win over Pannie Kianzad; a 22-second knockout of Gina Mazany — make the 33-year-old look like a future Top 10 talent and potential contender, while the final two rounds of her bout with Eubanks, where she was controlled on the ground throughout, highlight that she’s still a work-in-progress trying to figure how everything fits together in the cage.
I’m always going to give athletes like Avila a longer leash when it comes to determining where they fit in the division and where their ceiling rests because experience is such a crucial factor in figuring those things out and she simply doesn’t have all that much of it yet.
But as she keeps learning what she doesn’t know and building on the obvious skills she does possess, “The Ragin’ Panda” could become a factor in the bantamweight division.