10 Things I Like at UFC Vegas 31
Following in UFC 264's shadow, Saturday's return to the APEX is a classic unheralded fight card with a few important names to track mixed in for good measure
Earlier this week, I was honored to make an appearance on Best Camp of My Life with the inimitable Fernanda Prates (or not Fernanda Prates), who, while referencing the amount of content I put out each week, tap-danced around the fact that I maintain said level of production even when the upcoming fight card is… you know… not one of the bigger events of the year.
We laughed because she’s 100 percent right that I do, in fact, love me the “Little Guy Fight Cards” as I called them, and if you’ve been following along here or read Fighters on the Rise every week at UFC.com, you know why that is. In case this is your first time here, a quick refresher:
Cards like this weekend’s offering may be short on major names or established stars, but this is where the next wave of major names and established stars cut their teeth, and we have years upon years of evidence to support those findings.
These are the cards where those “Came Out of Nowhere” fighters who turn up on two-, three-, four-fight winning streaks facing someone you’re familiar with earned those victories, so if you want to get to know them before then, this is your chance because no one “comes out of nowhere” or is a complete unknown before landing opposite an established name; you just weren’t paying attention, which is fine, as long as you don’t hold that against said competitor.
So yeah, these are my cards, my fighters, my people, and I’m pumped to settle in on Saturday for another collection of fights with limited immediate relevancy, but definite long-term potential.
And here are the 10 Things I Like.
The New Boogeyman
Islam Makhachev is now the guy that no one ahead of him in the rankings has any real interest in fighting.
Fresh off a third-round submission win over Drew Dober that extended his winning streak to seven and officially elevated him to “dark horse contender” status in the lightweight division, Makhachev gets his first main event opportunity this weekend against Thiago Moises, who I’ll talk about in earnest shortly, because no one stationed above him in the Top 10 was rushing to share the Octagon with him this weekend.
It makes sense because the 29-year-old is 19-1 overall, a terror on the ground, and seems like the heir to Khabib Nurmagomedov’s throne, which makes him a high-risk, low-reward dance partner for anyone looking to climb higher in the rankings. But it also sucks because this is the same issue we’re seeing at welterweight (and to a lesser extent, featherweight) right now, where everyone is looking to fight forward and emerging talents are constantly cycling through matchups against seasoned veterans and other hopefuls, which leads to stagnation.
A few months back, when Makhachev posted about this weekend’s matchup on Instagram, a part of the caption read, “Some day in my old age, I will reach this belt with a winning streak of 20 fights.” It may not take 20, but it really does look like it could take 10-12 and that’s just wild to me, especially in a division so flush with talent.
And here’s the kicker: a dominant effort and stoppage victory this weekend will only further exacerbate the problem, meaning that while Makhachev is a high-risk, low-reward opponent for the nine people ahead of him in the lightweight rankings, he’s also in a damned if you do, damned if you don’t scenario until one of those bigger opportunities shakes out.
The New Unsung Standout
When this fight was announced, there were grumbles throughout the MMA community about Makhachev being paired off with Moises, primarily because most folks wanted to see Makhachev get a bigger name, but also because far too many people are far too unfamiliar with the Brazilian’s exploits and upside.
At this time, I’d like to reiterate my feelings about those complaints, as I wrote when discussing this fight at the start of the month as one of the 10 Fights in July that Intrigue Me Most:
Fuck everyone that moaned about this matchup because they’re not as familiar with Moises as some of the other lightweight options they would have preferred Makhachev face, and fuck anyone that wants to lament this being a five-round main event as if the No. 9 and No. 14 lightweights in the UFC shouldn’t be headlining a Fight Night event.
Am I harsh and kind of an asshole at times? Yes, yes I am, but it comes from a place of appreciation for what these athletes do and frustration with the infinite number of people who either shout about how big a fan they are or get paid to cover this sport in some capacity and then no next to nothing about a talented 26-year-old on a three-fight winning streak whose only UFC losses have come against a Top 5 contender (Beneil Dariush) and a dude (Damir Ismagulov) that is 20-1 overall and should be on everyone’s radar.
Moises is the new unsung dark horse in this division — a gifted, young fighter who had success on the regional circuit, trains with an elite crew at American Top Team, and profiles as someone that will be a problem in the Top 15 for the foreseeable future. And if he beats Makhachev on Saturday, expect there to be a lot of people wondering where he came from, even though he’s faced and beaten established names in each of his last three appearances.
Miesha Tate’s Return
Part of me didn’t remember — or never really put together — how quickly Miesha Tate went from sitting atop the bantamweight division following her come-from-behind championship win over Holly Holm at UFC 196 to pulling the plug on her career after losing to Raquel Pennington at UFC 205. Even looking at it in terms of those two numbered events, it feels a ways apart, but it was just nine months.
Nine Months!
Now, after four-plus years away, Tate is making a comeback, returning to action this weekend against Marion Reneau in an absolutely perfect litmus test matchup (that also happens to be Reneau’s retirement fight) to see if she can make one more run towards the top of the division.
In speaking to her this week and consuming a bunch of the content she’s put out chronicling her return to the Octagon, the 34-year-old mother of two seems to be in a tremendous place mentally and life-wise, two things that were working against her when she opted to walk away. Her coach, Eric Nicksick, whose insights I also sought out for the upcoming feature, which will run Friday on OSDBsports.com (shameless plug), sung her praises, suggesting that this is the best Tate has ever looked, and the head man at Xtreme Couture isn’t one for hyperbole.
What’s really interesting about the timing of all this (at least to me) is that as much as the division has changed, elements of it have stayed the same, like Amanda Nunes continuing to rule and Holly Holm remaining one of the top contenders. Tate’s fought them both, beaten the latter, and could, in theory, slot right back in as a serious contender with a quality showing this weekend, and I am absolutely here for it.
‘Gamer’ Looks to Level Up
For a number of years, Mateusz Gamrot was one of the best fighters competing outside of the UFC, claiming championship gold in two weight classes under the KSW banner while posting victories over the likes of Mansour Barnoui, Norman Park, and Kleber Koike Erbst.
He debuted in the UFC last fall, dropping a split decision to Guram Kutateladze in his third appearance in four months; it was the first loss of his career. He returned six months later and got back into the win column in spectacular fashion, flooring Scott Holtzman with a clean, crisp one-two just over a minute into the second round of their April engagement at the UFC APEX.
This weekend, “Gamer” takes on veteran Jeremy Stephens, who makes his second attempt to return to the lightweight division this year, after his first assignment was scrapped at the 11th hour because he got all handsy and shoved Drakkar Klose when they faced off at the weigh-ins.
Though he’s without a victory in his last five appearances, Stephens remains a tough out and battle-tested competitor, making him a perfect measuring stick for a promising fighter like Gamrot, whose ceiling in the UFC remains undefined. While there will certainly be some “Yeah, but Jeremy Stephens is washed” talk should the 30-year-old from Poland wipe out the tenured American this weekend, it would still put Gamrot in impressive company over the last several years, as Stephens only lost to contenders during his featherweight run and never went out without a fight.
I think Gamrot is someone who could become a factor in the lightweight division in the next 12-18 months with the right matchups and right adjustments, and I believe this weekend’s contest will go a long way in either confirming or refuting that position.
Second Chance for Dustin Stoltzfus
As someone that has watched every episode of every season of the Contender Series, I find myself rooting for the graduates of the summer talent search competition more than most people, largely because they are — in my opinion — unfairly characterized as simply being cheap, untalented replacements for more expensive, older fighters that get jettisoned from the roster, when all they’re doing is chasing their goddamn dreams like anyone would if present with the same opportunities.
I also think there have been more than a few quality fighters come through the program, and one individual that I think has the potential to be included in that group is Dustin Stoltzfus, who makes his second trip into the Octagon on Saturday against Rodolfo Vieira.
Nothing went right for Stoltzfus in his debut — he got COVID a few months before and struggled to regain the conditioning and endurance required to compete in the UFC, and then got controlled for 15 minutes by Kyle Daukaus, leaving him with a very sour taste in his mouth following his first foray into the UFC cage.
In speaking to him ahead of that fight and this one, I’m really curious to see what he looks like now that he’s put all his lingering COVID-related issues behind him because I think he could blossom into a well-rounded, unrelenting, tough out in the middle of the pack in the middleweight division if things break his way; think “Cowboy” Oliveira, but born in Pennsylvania, fighting out of Gemersheim, Germany, and 185 pounds.
We’ll see how he does against the powerful, but limited Vieira on Saturday, and if things shake out in his favor, I think he’ll become a critical darling over the next few years.
Fighter I Can’t Quit: Gabriel Benitez
I’m a simple man.
I like a nice meal and a good glass of wine, well-written books and movies and television programs, crisp fall evenings, the ridiculous antics of my 17-year-old dog, and fighters I can count on to bring the action and leave me entertained every time they step into the Octagon, and Gabriel Benitez is one of those fighters.
The 33-year-old from Tijuana, Baja California, Mexico is an middle-tier featherweight with a 6-4 record inside the Octagon, having lost to the best competition he’s faced, and beaten a handful of solid, but unspectacular adversaries while consistently turning in entertaining efforts, win or lose. Last time out, Benitez scored one of the more underrated finishes of 2020 if you ask me, dropping Justin Jaynes with a hellacious knee to the body that made me feel like I wanted to throw up watching it from home, and now he looks to build upon that effort as he takes on Billy Quarantillo on Saturday.
I’ll be honest: I also like that his nickname is “Moggly,” a bastardized version of “Mowgli” from The Jungle Book, because it kind of feels like one of those instances where you didn’t know you were pronouncing or spelling something wrong, made it a part of your lexicon, and have just rolled with it ever since. Like at no point did he opt to adjust the spelling or dump the name; he’s just “Moggly” and I like it.
D-Rod’s Next Ride
Daniel Rodriguez appears to have taken up the “most active fighter” mantle from his friend and training partner Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone, as Saturday night, “D-Rod” makes his sixth UFC appearance in the last 17 months, squaring off with newcomer Preston Parsons in the final preliminary card bout of the evening.
Originally slated to face Abubakar Nurmagomedov, Parsons tagged in when “Manap” (that’s what they call Nurmagomedov in the gym) was forced out with an undisclosed injury, but I don’t think any of that bothers Rodriguez, who really does seem like an “I’ve got a fight on Saturday and I don't care who it’s against” kind of guy and if you don’t dig that, I don’t know what to tell you.
What makes him even more intriguing to me is that despite his “just gimme a name” approach, he’s set a pretty reasonable floor for himself in the welterweight division, earning victories over Tim Means and Mike Perry, with his only setback coming in a real close decision loss to Nicolas Dalby, who of course lost to Tim Means last time out, further proving MMA math doesn’t work and time is a flat circle.
Frequent opponent changes have slowed his matriculation up the divisional ladder, but the 34-year-old feels like one of those guys — much like “Cowboy” or even the Brazilian “Cowboy” — who is going to hang around the Top 15, taking on whomever the UFC puts in front of him, delivering a quality effort every time out.
Every division needs a couple people like that, and every one of them has a place in my heart.
Amanda Lemos: Emerging Contender?
She’s currently stationed at No. 14 in the rankings and has a tough test ahead of her this weekend, but does anyone else get the feeling that Amanda Lemos is one or two fights away from being a bonafide contender in the strawweight division?
Since returning after serving her two-year suspension and dropping down to the 115-pound weight class, the 34-year-old Brazilian has subbed out Miranda Granger, outworked Mizuki, and beat the bejesus out of Livia Renata Souza, pushing her record to 9-1-1 and sending her into Saturday’s preliminary card pairing with Montserrat Ruiz on a three-fight winning streak.
Over these last three fights — and especially in her March thumping of Souza — Lemos has shown a different level of physicality than we’re used to seeing in the strawweight division, bringing a little more menace, a little more roughneck attitude to the Octagon; bullying fighters with her strength and power and fighting with a great deal of confidence.
Strawweight is flush with talent and the path to the Top 5 is filled with serious tests, so establishing herself as a true title threat will be hard, but given what we’ve seen over the last three fights and depending on how things go on Saturday, I genuinely wouldn’t be surprised if Lemos worked her way into that mix in the next 12-18 months.
I Want to Know More About… Montserrat Ruiz
Speaking of Ruiz…
The 28-year-old had a dominant debut that still somehow managed to aggravate some onlookers, as she frequently dragged Cheyanne Buys to the canvas, locking up a bulldog numerous times over, and holding onto it for long stretches of the contest, peppering Buys with short punches while angling to secure a submission, but refusing to sell-out in an attempt to secure the hold.
It reminded me of when your older brother would get you in the same position and keep slapping you in the face or flicking your nose for prolonged periods, content to keep you there, but not doing anything more than annoy you. You know what I mean, right? No? Just me?
Anyway, Ruiz is a tremendous grappler and her effort against Buys reiterated that, while also putting her in a position to receive this step up in competition and chance to face a ranked opponent in her sophomore voyage into the Octagon. It’s a tremendous early opportunity for the former Invicta FC competitor and if she can replicate that effort — or the one she turned in against Janaisa Morandin before that — this weekend, Ruiz will rocket into the rankings and establish herself as the one climbing the divisional ladder to watch going forward.
What to Make of Miles Johns?
Here’s what I said about the Fortis MMA bantamweight when I put together my Fighters to Watch series at the start of the year:
One loss isn’t enough to cause me to abandon ship on a prospect, especially when that loss came against another prospect, and not when you’ve already rebounded with a solid bounce-back performance.
As mentioned, Johns got stopped by Bautista in February, but got back into the win column in October, collecting a third-round finish of his own to push his record to 10-1. The Fortis MMA product had nothing but success on the regional circuit, and looked sharp in his Contender Series win before eking out a decision victory in his promotional debut.
Now that he’s got the first three out of the way, it’s time to see if Johns can find a rhythm and start making some headway in the talent-rich 135-pound weight class.
Fighting for the first time since icing Kevin Natividad on Halloween, “Chapo” checks in this weekend against Anderson dos Santos, a dangerous Brazilian veteran coming off a first-round submission win at the end of November, in what feels like a fight that will really shape what his next couple of years look like going forward.
A win pushes his record to 3-1 in the Octagon, 12-1 overall, and obviously moves him forward in the division, which is brimming with young talent at the moment, while a loss drops him to 2-2 under the UFC banner and leaves Johns in a “got to get the next one or you’re really in a tough spot” situation. That’s a big swing for a 27-year-old fighter making the walk on the big stage for just the fourth time, but that’s life in the UFC right now; it’s sink or swim almost every time out, especially in the most competitive, deepest divisions.
I still think Johns has a high upside, but I’m really looking forward to seeing how he does against such an experience opponent this weekend in order to figure out if that’s the right read or not.