10 Things I Like at UFC Vegas 38
It hasn't gotten much attention, but there is a fun little card on the horizon this weekend with plenty of stuff that piques my interest
Sorry the last couple posts have been coming much later than usual — it’s been busy, which is good, but also means this stuff (read: the fun, non-deadline, non-essential, but still essential to me stuff) gets put off until the end of the day, and these last couple days, that has meant starting between 8-9pm PT.
This weekend’s card is one of those “Nobody is really talking about it much, but there is a lot to like here” kind of shows that always gets me excited and ends up getting solid post-event reviews from all the folks that were sleeping on it until Saturday afternoon.
Here’s what I like about it.
Johnny Walker Gets Another Test
I don’t have a great read on Johnny Walker quite yet, though I don’t think I’m alone in feeling that way.
Through six appearances, he’s 4-2 with four first-round finishes, including wins over Misha Cirkunov and Ryan Spann, both of whom were ranked in the Top 15 at the time. He’s wildly entertaining in the cage, has a goofy charisma to him that a lot of people seem to like (it’s gets old fast for me), and has shown flashes of being a potential contender.
But he’s also been stopped in two minutes and change by Corey Anderson and out-wrestled by Nikita Krylov, has bounced around to a few different gyms, and gets hit at an alarming rate for a guy that shares the Octagon with heavy hitters, as Richard Mann touched on in the latest issue of his must-read newsletter, Fight Forecast. For every two flashes of potential, there has been one “this guy is playing with fire” moment that makes you think there is no way he continues to find these shots and survive the return fire.
And it’s not fair, but the fact that Spann just had another “gooding good until it wasn’t” fight with Anthony Smith takes a little something away from Walker’s victory, which already wasn’t some pantheon-level performance, given that he nearly got finished a couple times before rallying and finishing himself.
Which is why I love that he’s sharing the Octagon with Thiago Santos on Saturday because even if “Marreta” is on a three-fight slide, he’s only lost to truly elite talents, and I believe this fight and this result will be highly instructive.
This is a huge test for Walker, and how he does will dictate what his next 12-18 months look like inside the cage.
“Show Me Something” Fight for Kevin Holland
You can justify losing to Derek Brunson and Marvin Vettori, a pair of more experienced, more complete, more savvy competitors that found a hole in your game and exploited it. Sure you got beat, but it’s not like you got beat up; they just wrestled you for 25 minutes and your wrestling wasn’t up to snuff.
But now you’re facing Kyle Daukaus, who is a solid prospect, but not a middleweight contender, and if things don’t look better here, folks are really going to start questioning where you fit in this division.
That’s where Kevin Holland is at heading into Saturday night — stuck on a two-fight skid that undid all the momentum he garnered by winning five fights in eight months last year, and showed that he might not be mentally or technically ready to compete in the upper reaches of the middleweight ranks. A specific flaw was identified and exposed in his last two fights, he’s looked to be working to improve, and now he’s got a matchup that is winnable, but far from a cake walk, with all kinds of attention and pressure on him.
We’re going to find out some things about Kevin Holland on Saturday night and I’m eagerly waiting to see what this fight shows us.
Niko Price is Fighting
I have a list of fighters that I’m watching every time they step into the Octagon, no matter the opponent or circumstances. It’s pretty long because I’m genuinely obsessed with this stuff, but it includes Vicente Luque, Valentina Shevchenko, Dan Hooker, Jim Fucking Miller, Amanda Nunes, and a whole bunch of others, including Niko Price.
Price is a wild man, and I mean that in the most lovely, appreciative way possible. He’s a showman that operates from a “kill or be killed” standpoint, and until recently, he had never been to the scorecards in the UFC. Now his last two outings have gone the distance and something tells me that this weekend’s matchup against fellow all-action fighter and man with many, many children, Alex “Cowboy” Oliveira, will be a return to handling things without the help of the judges, one way or the other.
I like to think everyone has a similar list or at least one or two fighters they watch no matter what, and I hope a bunch of them are guys like Price that live outside the Top 15, but entertain every time, because cats like him are crucial to keeping things moving and good lord is he ever a helluva lot of fun to watch compete.
Cirkunov’s Instant Middleweight Challenge
Misha Cirkunov said he wanted to move to middleweight and rather than drop him in there with a promotional newcomer or someone from the bottom half of the division coming off a loss, the matchmakers paired him off with Krzysztof Jotko in a bout that will provide an immediate understanding of where the former Top 15 light heavyweight fits in his new surroundings.
I like Cirkunov — I’ve covered him since he was a kid and fought on Vancouver Island, and we’ve built a pretty good rapport over the years. I was at each of his first three UFC fights and we’ve spoken for one outlet or another before the majority of his UFC appearances. I think he’s talented, but I’m not sure moving to middleweight cures what’s been ailing him up a division, which is why I adore this matchup.
Jotko isn’t just some guy — he’s been a fixture in the division for a number of years, worked his way into the Top 15 for a solid stretch and has only lost to ranked fighters. He’s capable everywhere, coming in off a loss, and is precisely the kind of guy Cirkunov needs to beat right away if he wants to show he’s going to be a factor in the 185-pound ranks going forward.
Middleweight is a little backed up and congested towards the top of the rankings right now, so there is no reason to slow play things with Cirkunov; he either sinks or he swims, and I’m looking forward to seeing him jump in the pool on Saturday night.
The Animosity Between Aspen Ladd and Macy Chiasson
I was already hyped about this matchup between the two ranked bantamweights, which was originally scheduled to take place in July, but got pushed back after Chiasson suffered an injury. But then when Chiasson showed up to Media Day and called Ladd out for “flapping her lips” about her withdrawing from the original fight, I got even more invested.
Basically, Chiasson is vexed that Ladd, who has previously pulled out of a fight the day of the event and missed weight resulting a bout being scrapped, took umbrage with her withdrawing from their initial bout with an injury just a few days before they were to step in the cage.
Look, I get it — you bust your ass for eight, 10, 12 weeks to get ready for a fight and then the day before, you’re told it’s not happening? I’d be salty too, and it’s probably an even tougher pill to swallow for Ladd because it was her first fight back since shredding her knee, and she was obviously super-keen to get back out there… but this really does feel a little “pot calling the kettle black” and like one of those things that’s better left unsaid.
But it was spoken out loud, Chiasson is pissed about it, and this already compelling matchup between a pair of promising fighters in the bantamweight division now has some personal stakes attached to it too and I am here for it.
I’m not a big fan of fabricated and forced trash talk where you know we’re going to hear an “I was just hyping the fight” excuse/explanation as soon as the final horn sounds, but this kind of stuff? Give me as much of this genuine, organic saltiness as possible.
Alexander Hernandez’s High Risk Fight
Three-and-a-half years ago, Alexander Hernandez was Mike Breeden, the man he’s facing on Saturday night.
He was the UFC newcomer taking on an established, talented figure in a short-notice fight where there was little risk and a potentially massive reward, and he made the absolute most of it, stopping Beneil Dariush 42-seconds into the opening round of their fight at UFC 222 to instantly become a person of interest in the lightweight division. This weekend, he’s playing the role of Dariush, as Breeden looks to replicate Hernandez’s debut success.
Where things differ is that Dariush was a Top 10 (maybe Top 15) fighter at the time, and although he was coming off a draw with a loss before that, everyone was pretty sure that he was a legit divisional threat; it wasn’t until his loss to Hernandez that people started rethinking that, only to have Dariush win seven straight since then and cement his standing as a legit divisional threat.
Hernandez isn’t ranked and no one is quite sure where he fits in the divisional hierarchy, because he’s alternated wins and losses since that fight with Dariush and enters Saturday’s contest with Breeden off a low-output loss to Thiago Moises. You can poke some holes in his resume if you really wanted to and his previous cocky frat boy didn’t exactly cast him in a great light (at least not to me), which means he’s in a weird spot heading into a fight he’s not only expect to win, but win handily.
That’s the worst kind of pressure and I’m curious to see how Hernandez responds.
Another Tough Test for Joe Solecki
I love the road Joe Solecki has travelled thus far in his UFC career and I’m pumped to see what the streaking Contender Series grad (Class of ‘19) does on Saturday night against Jared Gordon.
In a division where there are loads of low-end talents you could throw at a promising newcomer like Solecki, the 28-year-old Brazilian jiu jitsu black belt has faced Matt Wiman, Austin Hubbard, and Jim Fucking Miller (that’s his official name), winning all three, which sets a real high floor for where Solecki fits within the division, because Hubbard is solid and Miller is tough out, despite all the miles he’s accrued over the years. You beat those three without much trouble and you have my attention.
Now the North Carolina-based lightweight is stepping in with Gordon, who moves back to the 155-pound weight class, where he’s 2-3 in the UFC, but more than capable of being competitive. The New Yorker doesn’t have a lot more experience than Solecki in terms of total number of fights, but he’s been in there with more quality opponents, been through some tough fights, and should serve as another real stern test for the emerging talent this weekend.
Lightweight is always flush with talent, but if you go 4-0 in the UFC with three of those wins coming over proven veterans, including back-to-back against Jim Fucking Miller and Jared “Flash” Gordon, that’s saying something and should be worth a significant step up in competition next time out.
Big Step Up for Casey O’Neill
Speaking of a significant step up in competition…
I absolutely adore that the UFC isn’t slow-playing things with O’Neill, who is just under a week away from turning 24 and already 2-0 with a pair of finishes in the UFC. Part of it is because the depth in the division doesn’t exactly rival lightweight or welterweight, but it’s also because she’s been so damn impressive through her first two appearances that why wouldn’t you roll the dice and see what the young Scottish-born hopeful can do in a pairing with Antonina Shevchenko.
Cards on the table: I think Shevchenko gets a bump in recognition and more respect than her skills merit because of her last name, and I’m absolutely fine with it, because it happens all the time, and doesn’t really hurt anybody. I just think everyone overrates her a little because her younger sister is one of the five best female fighters of all time and one of the most complete fighters in the sport right now, which makes sense; you hear the name, you can’t help but think she’s a very good fighter, at the absolute worst.
But even though I believe Shevchenko is slightly overrated, this is still a considerable step up from facing Shana Dobson and Lara Procopio, who were a combined 3-5 before facing O’Neill, and I’m really interested to see how the young flyweight hopeful handles herself on Saturday night. This is the kind of early test should, in theory, clarify where O’Neill fits in the division and set a course for her next 12 months, and if she looks impressive, it’s not wild to think that path leads to her being a Top 5 fighter by this time next year.
I know I’m projecting, but that’s part of what makes the build up to these fights so interesting and why I spend so many Saturday’s glued to the television, watching to see how things play out.
A Veteran Challenge for Karol Rosa
Much like it’s hard to know exactly what to make of O’Neill because she’s beaten a pair of fighters with middling UFC records, I struggle to know what to make of Rosa for the very same reason.
Although she’s 3-0 in the UFC and 14-3 overall, I don’t have a real sense of how she’d do against the other members of the Top 15 because beating Procopio, Vanessa Melo, and Joselyne Edwards doesn’t exactly tell me a lot. While I absolutely put a ton of weight into “you can only beat the people they put in front of you,” I also struggle to support a Top 15 ranking based on those three wins, even in a comparatively thin division.
And look: Correia isn’t a world-beater and she’s calling it a career after this (last I heard), but at least she’s been in there with a gang of ranked opponents over the years, winning a few and being competitive more often than naught.
Even coming off a considerable layoff, “Pitbull” should, in theory, have enough moxie to force Rosa to be at her best if she wants to leave Las Vegas with another victory, and how the fight plays out is going to be highly instructive when it comes to figuring out where the 26-year-old stands right now and what her future in the division could look like.
If she wins this one, Rosa is fighting a Top 15 opponent next time out, so this kind of feels like “the one before the one where everyone else will start paying attention” and those are my kind of fights.
The Return of Devonte Smith
I think Devonte Smith has the skills to develop into a constantly entertaining competitor in the upper third of the lightweight division, with the upside to crack the rankings if things shake out in his favor and he’s able to stay healthy and string together a handful of wins. He’s surrounded by a very good team, has already flashed real talent and power, and is just hitting that age where fighters really start to put everything together and hit their stride.
Saturday’s matchup with Jamie Mullarkey is a tough, but winnable fight against a solid Australian coming off his first win — a 46-second finish of Khama Worthy, the last guy to beat Smith. He’s game and dangerous and as confident as he’s been during his UFC tenure and he should, in theory, be able to push Smith on Saturday.
But I’m real curious to see if Smith can go out there and get things done in a hurry because it also feels like it could be that kind of fight — one that ends quickly and leaves everyone marvelling at the hand speed, precision, and power “King Kage” brings to the table in the lightweight division.
I have a feeling about Smith, and I want another chance to see if my feeling is justified.