10 Things I Like at UFC Vegas 39
There is plenty that piques my interest about the fight card headed to the UFC APEX this weekend
Coffee and Fisticuffs
This weekend, I get to get up on Saturday morning, take my dog for his usual walk, come home, make coffee and something to eat (I’m thinking oatmeal, but we’ll see), and then settle in for several hours of face-punching, culminating in a terrific main event, all of which will be done before 5pm PST.
If that doesn’t sound like a nice little Saturday, you might not be a fight fan.
Outside of the pay-per-view events, the UFC actually has earlier start times the rest of the year, which is amazing, because as much as I adore fights and I’m watching every week, there is something nice about being wrapped up before 11pm PST. And if I’m this excited, imagine how overjoyed Craig and Matt Allen are on the East Coast (on Thanksgiving Weekend no less!) or Sean Sheehan is in Ireland knowing that the majority of the cards from now until the end of 2021 will be done earlier than normal. While it’s not quite breakfast with a side of scraps for those folks, it certainly beats staying up until some unholy hour on another Saturday night.
If the UFC wanted to do one event every month with a 10am PST start time, I sure wouldn’t complain.
Mackenzie Dern’s Next Step Up
Dern may be ranked higher than Marina Rodriguez heading into their main event clash on Saturday, but that doesn’t mean this isn’t still a step up in competition for the talented Brazilian jiu jitsu player.
The 28-year-old has been working her way up the divisional ladder with wins over Hannah Cifers, Randa Markos, Virna Jandiroba, and Nina Nunes, but outside of Nunes, none of those competitors is someone you’re overly worried about on the feet, and Nunes is more of a point-fighter than a power threat, and was coming off an extended layoff after having a baby. I know this sounds like I’m trying to revise history or downplay her level of competition, but to me, this is just how we need to assess these athletes and their progress — by taking an honest accounting of who they’ve fought, what those matchups represented, and how they played out.
Dern has been lights out, but she hasn’t been in there with someone that can make her pay for standing and has actively been in the cage with the top talent in the division over the last couple years, which is why I love this matchup with Rodriguez. The Brazilian striker ticks all those boxes and is poised to serve as a truth machine against Dern on Saturday.
If the former BJJ world champion is, in fact, poised to challenge for championship gold, she’ll navigate this difficult assignment with aplomb and wait to see how things shake out between Rose Namajunas and Zhang Weili next month.
If she struggles, but still wins, it’ll be a testament to her continued development and genuine potential, leaving her a fight short of a championship opportunity, and likely angling to get Carla Esparza or Joanna Jedrzejczyk to sign on the dotted line.
And if she comes up short, it’s far from the end of the world because she’s 28 and has risen through the ranks in three years, having pressed pause in the middle to have a child herself.
This is Dern’s big test, her big step up in competition, and I can’t wait to see how it plays out.
Another Chance to Shine for Marina Rodriguez
Rodriguez was the “B Side” of each of her last two matchups, won them both, and now she enters this weekend’s pairing with Dern in the same position.
She is absolutely capable of coming away with the same result once more, and if she does, I hope folks will start to pay real attention to the 34-year-old Brazilian and recognize her as a truly legitimate title contender in the strawweight division.
Rodriguez is one of those fighters who has been stuck in a quality matchups where people were invariably going to come away talking about her opponents, no matter the outcome. Her fight with Amanda Ribas prompted a discussion of where the effervescent Brazilian needs to improve and how she still has time to develop into the star everyone believes she will become, while her triumph over Michelle Waterson feels like it was a final referendum on the limited upside of “The Karate Hottie,” a permanently pushed fighter who just can’t seem to rise above No. 6 or 7 in the rankings, despite numerous attempts.
Again — that’s still really goddamn good and a position many would love to reach, but it’s also one of those things we just have to accept about some fighters, no matter how much we love them and want to see them climb even higher.
Now Rodriguez lands a second main event assignment and it again feels like no matter the outcome, we’re going to come away from this weekend’s card discussing Dern more than we are Rodriguez, because that’s just how these things go.
But make no mistake about it: Rodriguez is the real deal and even better than her 4-1-2 record inside the Octagon indicates. She’s one round on one scorecard in three different fights away from being 7-0, and even now, being 4-1-2 where her only loss came by split decision to the streaking former champion Esparza is a pretty damn good look, especially with how impressive she’s been already this year.
I get that Dern is ranked higher, has more buzz, and all that jazz, but Rodriguez merits consideration as a championship contender right and is very much deserving of being a main event competitor in the UFC.
The Development of Randy Brown
If you’ve been reading this newsletter (or my work) for any length of time, you know I love a good developmental story, and Randy Brown feels like a good developmental story.
Randy Brown hit the UFC around the same time as Sage Northcutt and Mickey Gall. The former is long departed from the UFC and he faced and beat the latter four years ago, though Gall showed glimpses of maybe being on track to get written about in a similar fashion next year in his last appearance. He’s had some ups and downs, but six years into his UFC adventure, “Rude Boy” feels, to me, like he’s turned a corner and is primed to become a constant presence in “The Second 15” — that collection of skilled, but not spectacular talents that reside at Nos. 16 through 30 in a given division that can always be counted on to deliver entertaining fights and might, if things break the right way, crack the lower third of the Top 15.
Now 31 years old and entering his bout on Saturday with Jared Gooden off a first-round stoppage win over Alex Oliveira where he looked sharper than I can remember seeing him before, Brown profiles to me as one of those late bloomers in the stick-and-ball sports that is a role player for a couple years, but then blossoms into a key piece of a quality team; maybe not an All-Star, but an OG Anunoby type where every contending team would kill to add him. (Shouts to OG!)
Gooden is another solid test — a powerhouse that is full of confidence after registering his first win at the end of July with a 68-second knockout — and how this one shakes out will help further clarify both where Brown fits in the welterweight division at the moment and how high he could possibly climb in the next 12-18 months.
Dialled in Tim Elliott
As much as I like developmental stories, I like tales of old heads sticking around, finding new motivation, and looking to put it on the emerging class just as much, and that’s where Tim Elliott is at right now.
The former title challenger has endured some peaks and valleys in his tandem UFC stints, but he’s been falling back in love with fighting since re-connecting with James Krause back home in Missouri and just might be the guy to inherit Joseph Benavidez’s role as the dangerous veteran standing near the top of the division you have to beat in order to really establish yourself as a title contender in the flyweight ranks. The last couple guys to best him have all risen to that status, and another, Matheus Nicolau, hopes to join that field this weekend, but the hella awkward old man of the 125-pound division won’t be letting that happen without a fight.
Go back and watch pieces of Elliott’s last five fights and you can identify when he started working with Krause again without anyone telling you because he goes from looking like a guy that was just kind of in there and competitive for five, maybe seven minutes, to someone that is locked in and putting it on his opponents for 15 minutes straight, and it’s not just about the level of competition he’s facing.
Sure, he’s had renewed success in his last two bouts against unranked opponents, but Elliott has the skills to hang with the best in the division; he just didn’t always have the focus and drive and internal belief needed to show it for three hard rounds.
He’s got that again, and it makes him dangerous and interesting and someone I’m really looking forward to seeing this weekend and beyond.
The Return of Mariya Agapova
I still think Mariya Agapova has a very good chance to become an impact talent in the UFC.
I know I’m probably in the minority based on how poorly she looked last time out, but here’s the thing… well, things:
She’s 24
She’s 11-2 as a pro and already faced some solid competition
All that raw talent and swagger she previously flashed doesn’t just disappear with a loss
Did I mention she’s 24?
Listen, I was surprised and disappointed to see how terribly she faded against Shana Dobson, and bouncing around through a bunch of different South Florida camps isn’t necessarily the best look, but there are plenty of young fighters that have rough early showings and need to train at a couple different spots before they find somewhere they’re comfortable and start building, so why can’t that be the stage Agapova is in right now?
Maybe this all goes south and she becomes a cautionary tale of wasted potential, but I’m not ready to make that call after one bad showing, not when we’re talking about a 24-year-old fighter that had three strong efforts and a good showing in defeat before that.
This fight with Sabina Mazo on Saturday should answer a lot of questions about where her head is at and where she’s at in her development, and should provide some clarity about what direction you can reasonably expect her career to go next.
Phillip Hawes’ Rookie Campaign
Phillip Hawes has already had an outstanding rookie campaign in the UFC and he has the opportunity to wrap up Year One with a fourth victory on Saturday night.
After earning his UFC contract in early September with a win on the Contender Series, he made his promotional debut on October 24, 2020 at UFC 254, blasting through Jacob Malkoun in 18 seconds. He followed that up with a hard-fought majority decision win over Nassourdine Imavov where even if you disagree with the verdict, you have to give Hawes props for hanging tough down the stretch and battling hard with “The Russian Sniper,” who returned from this setback to stop Ian Heinisch in the second round, establishing himself as one to watch in the process.
Last time out, Hawes thoroughly out-hustled Kyle Daukaus, muting any concerns about his conditioning by dominating the final round to push his record in the Octagon to 3-0 heading into Saturday bout with Deron Winn, which was originally scheduled to take place in July, but had to be delayed when Winn suffered a rib injury.
Given how much everyone tripped over themselves hustling to give Kevin Holland a ton of praise for his efforts last year, it’s a little surprising to me that more isn’t being said about what Hawes has already accomplished, what a fourth victory this weekend means, and his status as an emerging threat in the routinely wide open middleweight division.
I’m also not surprised because those last two fights were low profile affairs on good, but not great Fight Night shows where neither of his opponents had Wikipedia pages at the time, and everyone knows you don’t have to bother paying attention to fighters that don’t have Wikipedia pages, especially when they’re competing on Fight Night shows that lack major star power.
But Hawes was once a hyped prospect and he’s starting to look like he’s ready to make a run at the lofty heights that he was forecasted to reach way too early in his career, and if no one else wants to be really excited about a first-year UFC fighter potentially going 4-0 and putting himself on the brink of breaking into the Top 15 in a division where two wins against ranked opponents puts you in the title conversation, so be it.
I guess I’ll just have to be excited enough for everyone.
Alexander Romanov’s Uniqueness
You know who I’m really looking forward to seeing on Saturday? Alexander Romanov.
You want to give me a 14-0 heavyweight whose core style on Tapology is listed as sumo, that has a freestyle wrestling background and uses a unique assortment of chokes and submissions and you think I’m not going to be all the way in? Of course I’m all-in!
Romanov’s last win was shaky (tech decision after a nut shot and point deduction) and he hasn’t beaten anyone of real substance yet in the UFC, but he put Marcos Rogerio de Lima to sleep with a forearm choke before that and if you think I’m not still pumped to see him compete just off of that, well then, you don’t know me very well at all, do you?
I have no idea whether Romanov can become a person of interest in the heavyweight division, but right now, he feels like the obvious heir to Aleksei Oleinik’s “dude that can choke you out in many ways” throne, and as much as I care deeply about contenders and title chases and prospects and all that stuff, I also love me genuine 1-of-1 fighters like Romanov that are complete long-term question marks.
Great Featherweight Clash
Neither Charles Rosa nor Damon Jackson have been able to string together enough victories inside the Octagon to make a real run of things in the treacherous 145-pound weight class, but d’you know what? I don’t care; I still can’t wait to see them fight on Saturday.
This is a prototypical “two solid veterans facing off in what is sure to be a fun, entertaining fight” type of matchup and even though both are basically capped out where they currently stand in the featherweight division, it’s the kind fight that every fight card needs and that never gets enough love.
Rosa has alternated losses and wins his entire UFC career, and Jackson’s on his second tour of duty, brandishing a weird 1-2-1 and 1 NC record through his first five UFC appearances, but they’re both excellent grapplers and scramblers, with the kind of tenacity and grit to make this a wildly entertaining back-and-forth on the prelims on Saturday.
This is the “Straight to DVD” version of those two Jim Miller-Joe Lauzon fights that were both outstanding, and I would not be at all surprised if this garners Fight of the Night honours this weekend.
A Big Test for Loopy Godinez
One of the things I really pay close attention to with younger, inexperienced fighters is how they respond in adverse situations, and Loopy Godinez faces one on Saturday.
Originally scheduled to face Sam Hughes, whom she faced as an amateur is therefore is familiar with, the Vancouver resident is now set to square off with newcomer Silvana Juarez, a tough veteran who trains with the Entram Gym crew and was readying to compete on the Contender Series next week before getting the call to replace Hughes.
While Juarez isn’t as experienced as Jessica Penne, whom Godinez battled in her promotional debut, she does have twice as much pro experience as the Mexican-Canadian and I’m really curious to see how Godinez adjusts to the last-minute shift in opponents. Will she come out a little hesitant and tight, unprepared for what Juarez brings to the table? Does she go out and dominate?
One of the most difficult positions you can be in as a fighter is being a massive favourite that is expected to roll because anything short of a one-sided effort is considered not good enough, and while she’s only a -250 favourite at the moment (per Bet365 at 12pm PST), that’s still a pretty big favorite for a sophomore with six pro fights coming off a loss in her debut.
I think Godinez has real upside in this division — I thought she beat Penne in April — and I’m eager to see her continue gaining experience in the Octagon, and I really think how she comports herself on Saturday will go a long way to clarifying what kind of heights she might be able to reach going forward.