10 Things I Like at UFC Vegas 50
Meaningful fights up and down the card bring plenty to be excited about this weekend
Everyone should be excited for this fight card on Saturday night, yet it feels like a little bit of malaise has set in for some fans and observers.
I get it — we’re on Week 6 of an eight-week run of events, there have been two pay-per-view events in the previous four weeks, and everyone is pumped about the return to London and a live crowd in Columbus the week after that, giving this a bit of a “Last Stand at the UFC APEX” feel, even though we’re sure to see more events there throughout the year.
But this is a great card, with a bunch of compelling fights and key opportunities for promising talents, and I genuinely believe it’s going to end up being one of the more impactful events of Q1.
Here’s a look at the reason why I feel that way.
Ankalaev’s Title Eliminator
If Magomed Ankalaev beats Thiago Santos in Saturday’s main event, he should face the winner of the impending light heavyweight title clash between Glover Teixeira and Jiri Prochazka in the fall; nothing else makes sense, for him or for the division.
A victory would push Ankalaev’s winning streak to eight, and while I’d love a stone-cold finish to remove any possible “… yeah, but it’s been boring decisions” arguments, we’re back to the whole if winning eight consecutive fights in the UFC were easy, more people would be doing it thing we talked about when Islam Makhachev was readying to win his tenth straight last month.
The other piece is that no one ahead of him in the division is booked with the fight between Jan Blachowicz and Aleksandar Rakic having been postponed.
Could someone else in that Top 5 mix get booked between now and early July, have a dynamic performance, and make a strong case for title contention? Absolutely — Rakic has earned back-to-back wins over Santos and Anthony Smith and should be 7-0 in the UFC, so a finish over Blachowicz would really bolster his stock — but it would also be nice to move away from this whole “waiting to see if someone better comes along” approach in order to keep things moving.
Ankalaev has been as good as advertised since arriving in the UFC, has exhibited a complete set of tools and sound Fight IQ, and shouldn’t have to constantly chase down “one more win” before getting a championship opportunity if he emerges victorious on Saturday night.
He’s a new name in the mix on a lengthy winning streak, who would have beaten former title challengers in consecutive outings.
Give the man a title shot if he beats Santos this weekend.
Song Yadong’s Next Biggest Test
“Each fight, if you’re doing things right, is generally the biggest fight.”
That’s something newcomer AJ Fletcher said to me when we spoke ahead of his fight with Matthew Semelsberger on Saturday (more on that shortly), but I wanted to drop it here because it sums up where Song is at in his career so perfectly.
Coming off his second-round stoppage win over Julio Arce and back in the Top 15, the 24-year-old Chinese standout faces Marlon Moraes in Saturday’s co-main event. Despite his recent poor results, Moraes is still the most accomplished and experienced fighter Song has faced and the first in what should be — if he keeps doing things right — a series of “biggest tests” going forward.
I really believe we’re undervaluing Song as a prospect, at least in terms of how little his name comes up when talking about young talents throughout the UFC and even in the bantamweight division specifically, given what he’s already accomplished. He should, if he remains healthy, continue to improve over the next three, four, five years before finally hitting that competitive sweet spot where his skills and experience coalesce and he’s the best possible version of himself for a couple years.
I assure you there will be a lot of “How the Mighty Have Fallen” takes about the Brazil if he suffers a fourth consecutive defeat on Saturday as well, but a strong showing from Song shouldn’t not be discounted. He’s a tremendous prospect, and this is a big opportunity for him.
The Alex Caceres Renaissance
Renaissance may not be the right word because it implies a return to something, and Caceres has never enjoyed this level of consistent success in the past, but either way, I’ve really enjoyed this run for the 33-year-old featherweight.
For the longest time, Caceres was one of those maddening fighters that was consistently inconsistent — he’d show promise, then look disinterested; he’d submit Damacio Page, then eke one out against Motonobu Tezuka, and so on, and so forth until it reached the point where it felt like that was simply who and what he was always going to be.
The funny thing is that this run he’s on now heading into Saturday’s fight with Sodiq Yusuff didn’t even really feel like anything more than some favourable pairings until after his last fight, at least not for me.
Caceres kicked off this five-fight winning streak by out-hustling Steven Peterson and beating up an overmatched Chase Hooper. He followed that up with a win over late replacement Austin Springer and a dominant showing against Kevin Croom, who has struggled to show he belongs at this level. It wasn’t until he weathered that early foul and come back to submit SeungWoo Choi last time out that this felt like it really could be something more than just a nice little story about a veteran stringing together wins against guys he really should beat.
And now the former Ultimate Fighter contestant has a chance to force his way into the Top 15 with a win on Saturday.
Renaissance or not, it’s been fun to watch, and I can’t wait to enjoy the next chapter this weekend.
Two More Intriguing Light Heavyweight Matchups
I’m grouping the two additional light heavyweight matchups together because neither is crucial enough to merit its own subheading, but each are interesting enough that they can’t be overlooked.
The fight between Khalil Rountree Jr. (above) and Karl Roberson is all about Rountree Jr. for me, at least in that he’s the one I’m really looking to see something from on Saturday. He’s looked good at times and lost at times, but is coming off a quality performance against Modestas Bukauskas last time out, and still feels like someone that is capable of making a little run if he can build some momentum.
The other bout opens the card and features Tafon Nchukwi facing Azamat Murzakanov, who fits the Chidi Njokuani, “Not Your Average DWCS Grad” profile, as he’s 32 years old, unbeaten in 10 professional fights, and totes around a complete set of tools with him wherever he goes. As much as I was previously super-excited about Nchukwi’s prospects (and I’m not all the way out now, just cooled), I’m very interested to see what Murzakanov does for a follow-up after mauling Matheus Scheffel last summer.
Light heavyweight is always in need of fresh names and it only takes a couple good wins to put yourself within arm’s reach of a date with a ranked opponent, so while these aren’t the biggest fights on Saturday’s card, they might be the most potentially propulsive of the bunch.
Terrance McKinney Rolls the Dice
I love Terrance McKinney’s decision to raise his hand and step in against Drew Dober on Saturday night. Love it! Couldn’t love it more!
Fresh off a dominant victory over Fares Ziam, the 27-year-old jumps into a matchup with a known commodity where absolutely no one will fault him if he comes out on the wrong side of the results. It’s an all-upside play for the promising fighter from Spokane who is 12-3 overall and won five straight… all in the last 12 months… all by stoppage… in the first round.
This is an “I believe in my skills” play for the Warrior Camp representative and a chance for him to show his confidence is merited, as Dober is proven tough out who started last year ranked in the Top 15. Over the last five years, he’s 6-3 inside the Octagon, only losing to ranked competitors, including a pair of Top 5 fighters, and if McKinney can make a rapid turnaround and run his winning streak to six, it will open a lot of eyes and have plenty of people rushing to find a spot on “The T. Wrecks Express.”
How Good is Alex Pereira?
We’re about to find out because Bruno Silva is no joke.
This is what kills me about Pereira saying that Israel Adesanya — my apologies — reigning, undisputed UFC middleweight champion Israel Adesanya is scared to fight him: my guy could very well lose on Saturday night, and then what?
I get that the former Glory Kickboxing two-weight world champion is trying to make moves to get that Adesanya fight (and the pay raise that comes with it), but maybe save that talk until after you get through Silva this weekend, because I don’t know if you know this, but “Blindado” has won seven straight, all by stoppage, and many of them against far more seasoned mixed martial arts competitors.
Now, maybe Pereira is capable of rivalling Adesanya as a sublime kickboxing to MMA crossover talent, and maybe he gets through Silva without issue this weekend, but those are two very large unknowns. And while I’m all for being confident in your abilities and advocating for what you want, there are times where waiting to say that thing you really want to say is the smarter approach.
Pereira looked very good against Andreas Michailidis, but it’s a long way from Michailidis to the top of the mountain, even at middleweight. The journey continues this weekend, and we’re about to find out just how good “Poatan” is as a mixed martial artist.
DWCS Alums Getting Tested
I mentioned earlier that AJ Fletcher (above) makes his promotional debut against Matthew Semelsberger on Saturday, but he’s not the only unbeaten member of the DWCS Class of ‘21 stepping into the Octagon for the first time this weekend, as Javid Basharat will take on Trevin Jones in a bantamweight clash a couple fights earlier.
Both of these are dynamic, competitive pairings for a couple of intriguing new additions to the roster, and I have to say, I love seeing these Contender Series alums getting tested right out of the chute these days.
After the first couple seasons, contract winners seemed to get handled with kid gloves, at least initially — they were given favourable matchups, treated as must-see new arrivals, and their victories were celebrated probably more than they should have been. I mean, people went nuts about Sean O’Malley beating Terrion Ware and Andre Soukhamthath by decision for chrissakes.
These days, however, DWCS grads are getting tossed into the fire.
Semelsberger is 3-1 in the UFC and registered two wins last year in 16 seconds or less. He’s only slightly more experienced than Fletcher overall, but he’s already shown he can hang at this level, and is a massive step up in competition for “The Ghost” this weekend. As for Basharat, I outlined yesterday why I’m curious to see his fight with Jones, whose record in the UFC (1-1 with one No Contest) doesn’t do justice to his skill level and overall talent.
These are instant measuring stick matchups for these two newcomers, and I’m excited to see the UFC matchmaking team getting away from handing them favourable matchups right out of the gate. Get them in there, figure out where they stand, and move forward from there.
Two Key Flyweight Matchups
There are two flyweight fights this weekend featuring four women on the fringes of the Top 15, each of which should be both competitive and instructive.
Sabina Mazo and Miranda Maverick hit the Octagon first, with each woman entering off back-to-back losses. Mazo had no answers for Mariya Agapova last time out, while Maverick got out-muscled by Erin Blanchfield in December, and of the two, I think there is more pressure on Maverick to get things moving in the right direction again. She had a bunch of hype and momentum coming off her first two appearances, and even coming out of her questionable loss to Maycee Barber, but now there is a little bit of a question mark hanging over her, and it will be interesting to see how she performs in her second bout working with the Elevation Fight Team Crew.
Later in the night, JJ Aldrich locks up with Gillian Robertson in a classic “striker vs. grappler” matchup. Both are coming off good wins, each has shown glimpses of being a potential fixture in the lower third of the rankings in the past, and each should know that a win on Saturday night is crucial to making that happen for themselves in 2022.
Flyweight is the most interesting division on the female side of the roster at the moment, and between the crush of young talent that began to emerge last year (including Maverick) and the tenured veterans that still show no sign of wanting to clear out, it should be an entertaining, competitive, action-packed year in the 125-pound ranks.
I Want to Know More About Kamuela Kirk
When you waltz in on short notice and beat Makwan Amirkhani, I’m going to make a point of watching your next fight in order to see what I missed initially, what kind of upside you might have, and whether that performance said more about him than it did about you.
That’s where I’m at with Kirk as he heads into his sophomore appearance in the Octagon this weekend against Damon Jackson, a similarly skilled fighter as Amirkhani, but with significantly better cardio.
Part of what has me really invested in the “wanting to see more” side of this is that only one media member scored that fight with Amirkhani in favour of Kirk. Now, two of the three officials scored the bout 29-28 for Kirk as well, and the real outlier amongst the final tallies was judge Dave Hagan’s 30-27 Kirk card, but when you have a variance like that, I tend to feel like we’re maybe paying more attention to the result than the way things played out, which is a dangerous way to approach things.
Jackson is the kind of savvy veteran that is a tough out for anyone and capable of dominating folks that don’t belong at this level, and right now, I’m not 100 percent sold on whether Kirk belongs at this level or not, which is why I’m eager to tune in and see how this one plays out on Saturday.
Early Start Time
You’re never going to hear me complain about a card that will be done before 8pm PST on a Saturday night.
Even with a six-fight main card, the 4pm PST start time means, barring some kind of all-decisions debacle, we should be packed up and finished before too late in the evening, which means I should be sitting by a fire this weekend, mapping out the next couple months with my wife.
Could we do that earlier in the day if this were a standard fight card that where the main card started at 7pm PST? Maybe, but she’s not much of a morning person, and the afternoons are her prime “getting shit done” times, so reconvening once the fights are finished while sipping an adult beverage by the fire is just a much more enjoyable way to spend a Saturday night.