10 Things I Like: UFC Vegas 16 Edition
Previewing Saturday's fight card at the UFC Apex and highlighting the elements that pique my interest
Jack Hermansson’s Steady Climb
Saturday night, Hermansson makes his third appearance as a headliner, squaring off against Marvin Vettori in one of several main event pairings that have been altered in recent weeks, much to the chagrin of many on #MMATwitter. It remains a critical fight for the division (more on that later) and takes on a bit of a “trap game” feel for “The Joker,” who was originally slated to face Darren Till in what felt like a bout that would help clear up the pecking order at the top of the division.
Regardless of what ramifications this weekend’s main event does or does not carry, the steady climb the 32-year-old Swede has made over the years is one of my favorite things about both he and this fight card.
Hermansson signed with the UFC after amassing a 13-2 record that included a championship run under the Cage Warriors banner and some quality wins over the kind of regional stalwarts only diehards know and appreciate. He won his debut, but dropped his second appearance to Cezar Ferreira, a guy who was projected to do big things, but never got there, and for a brief moment, it felt like Hermansson would become another guy who lived in the 11-25 range in the division, carving out a nice career for himself while never quite becoming a full-fledged contender.
After five appearances in the Octagon, he was 3-2 and making good on those “solid, but not special” expectations, but then he delivered a gutsy comeback win over Thales Leites that generated a little bit of buzz. He followed it up by choking out Gerald Meerschaert and David Branch in the first round, and then out-worked Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza in his first headlining assignment and all of a sudden, Hermansson was a bona fide contender.
Jared Cannonier halted his run up the rankings, but the affable finisher rebounded by quickly forcing Kelvin Gastelum to tap to a heel hook this summer on “Fight Island,” re-affirming his standing as one of the top talents in the 185-pound ranks and setting up (at the time) a showdown with Till… who was replaced by Kevin Holland… who was replaced by Vettori.
For all the fighters that burst onto the scene and get hustled into contention with alarming speed, it tends to be competitors like Cannonier that have greater staying power. He’s been through some battles, dealt with setbacks, and has the kind of balanced skill set that makes him a threat at all times, against anyone.
As great as watching an unimpeded march to the top of a division can be, I find the steady climbs to be far more compelling and it makes me incredibly curious to see how things play out for Hermansson on Saturday night and into next year.
Marvin Vettori’s Big Opportunity
The vast majority of fighters will tell you they are going to be champions in the future. Most believe it’s simply a question of when, not if, and the only real thing standing in their way is an opportunity.
Vettori is one of these fighters, and he forecasts his future greatness with such force, such energy, such intensity that as soon as it was announced that he would be stepping in for Holland, I immediately thought, “Well here’s your chance to prove it!”
The 27-year-old has made eight trips into the Octagon, emerging with a 5-2-1 record. His claim to fame at the moment is that he went the distance with Israel Adesanya before the reigning middleweight champ became the ruler of the weight class. He even earned the nod from one judge (perennial dissenter Chris Lee) and two out of the 17 media personalities that filed scorecards with MMA Decisions for the April 2018 matchup on FOX.
He’s won three straight since then and turned his red-faced frustrations with constant delays earlier this year into a first-round submission win over Karl Roberson last time out.
But maybe taking a couple rounds from Adesanya before he was full-formed and winning three straight against good, but not great competition doesn’t a future champion make, so if Vettori wants to prove he’s as good as he declares himself to be, he needs to show it on Saturday.
I love matchups like this because I want everyone to eventually get their shot, provided we all understand that not all shots are created equal. You have to work your way up the divisional ladder and need to reach certain benchmarks in order to ascend to the next tier in the division.
Circumstances have allowed Vettori to skip a step, but that just ups the stakes for Saturday because instead of facing a proven veteran that appears to be in decline (Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza) next weekend, he gets the chance to dance with a legitimate contender and potentially place himself in the title conversation heading into 2021.
This is the moment he’s been waiting for and it will be interesting to see if Vettori can make the most of it on Saturday night.
Middleweight Needs Sorting
I understand why Israel Adesanya isn’t all that interested in defending his title against Robert Whittaker and is instead angling for a light heavyweight title shot, but that doesn’t mean it doesn’t complicate things throughout the rest of the middleweight division.
Every division reaches this state at some point — where the champion has already vanquished several of the top contenders and the others haven’t been able to string together the key wins to truly merit a title opportunity — and that’s what makes Saturday’s main event vitally important and why the UFC must plot a course for the division going forward before things drag out too long.
A win for Hermansson probably isn’t enough to earn him a title shot, but it could set up a bout with “Bobby Knuckles,” who has maintained he’ll fight whomever he has to beat up in order to get back to another title shot. That leaves time for Adesanya to move up and challenge Jan Blachowicz if that’s still the plan, and UFC to find the remainder of the contenders and hopefuls dance partners in order to get things delineated in the 185-pound weight class.
What’s great about these complicated periods is that this is where a new batch of contenders usually emerge, so if the UFC can find some way to successfully navigate the next 12-18 months, the middleweight division will get back to being a hotbed of exciting top-end fights.
An Early Step Up for Jamahal Hill
A member of the Contender Series Class of 2019, Hill began his UFC career with a pair of victories, out-working Darko Stosic in his debut before finishing Klidson Abreu in less than two minutes in his sophomore showing.
That result was overturned when he tested positive for marijuana following the bout, but you’re never going to convince me that having traces of weed in your system had any impact on your ability to fold a man over by kneeing him in the midsection, so I still look at it like a victory.
Saturday night, “Sweet Dreams” skips about three steps in the usual progression of things by jumping into the Octagon against Ovince Saint Preux, a tenured member of the light heavyweight Top 15 who has made a habit of derailing emerging prospects looking to gain traction by getting their first big win at his expense, and I have to say, I don’t mind it at all.
Light heavyweight feels like it’s perpetually in the state discussed above where the same contenders are trading wins against one another and nothing really changes, and while that might be unfair given that there is a new champion, Glover Teixeira is the top contender right now and you have to admit, that has a very 2013-2015 feel to it.
There are some new names working their way up the divisional ladder and if the UFC wants to give Hill an opportunity to make the quick jump into the rankings, this is the right way to do it, as Saint Preux is an established figure in the 205-pound ranks and everyone understands what a victory over him means.
Thus far, Hill has shown flashes of potential and he has the build to be a factor in the division, plus he works with a solid up-and-coming crew at Murcielago MMA, all of which makes him an intriguing fighter to track heading into Saturday’s event.
If he wins, the Top 15 gets a new resident, and if he loses, it was simply a little too quick to throw him in with someone as seasoned and savvy as OSP. This is a no-lose situation for both Hill and the UFC and I can’t wait to see how it all shakes out.
Montana De La Rosa’s Continued Development
Fighters like De La Rosa are so intriguing to me, which is a big part of why I sought out the opportunity to speak with her ahead of her fight this weekend with Taila Santos.
Because she’s been in the UFC for three years and a staple of the flyweight rankings since the division’s inception, it’s easy for people to forget that she’s just 25 and still in the developmental stage of her career. You see a fighter with an 11-6 record overall and a 4-2 mark inside the Octagon and tend to think you know exactly who they are, but De La Rosa is far from a finished product and her potential is captivating to me.
She turned pro without every taking an amateur fight and kept at it after losing the first two appearances of her career. She fought Mackenzie Dern and Cynthia Calvillo in back-to-back assignments on the regional circuit, won three straight to start her UFC career, and her two losses in the Octagon have come against more experienced, more polished veterans Andrea Lee and Viviane Araujo, both by decision.
She’s already shown solid finishing abilities and a strong ground game, and if she continues to sharpen her striking, De La Rosa has the long limbs and tall frame to develop into a well-rounded threat in the 125-pound weight class.
Will she become a contender or even champion one day? I think she can definitely become the former, especially with the right coaching and training environment, but I wouldn’t completely rule out the latter either, because she’s a solid athlete with good fundamentals and quality experience.
She’s filling in for Maryna Moroz on Saturday and Santos is 16-1 overall and coming off a very good win over Molly McCann, so this should be a stern test for De La Rosa. Win or lose, she'll remain someone whose development I will continue to track because I love seeing how athletes progress and I believe De La Rosa has yet to reach her full potential.
Movsar Evloev is Fighting
I would like to think that I was one of the early riders on the Movsar Evloev bandwagon, having secured my seat when the undefeated Russian made his promotional debut in April 2019 with with a win over Seung Woo Choi.
Since then, the 26-year-old Evloev has added victories over Enrique Barzola and Mike Grundy to push his record to 13-0 and Saturday night, he takes on Nate Landwehr in a battle of former M-1 Challenge champions that has the potential to be his coming out party.
Featherweight is capital L Loaded with talent at the moment, so it’s understandable if a guy like Evloev has slipped past your radar, but you should really make a point of paying attention starting this weekend. Barzola and Grundy are tough outs and the kind of quality wins that emerging contenders pile up in the 12-18 months before they become a full-blown contender, like when Max Holloway beat Akira Corasanni and Cole Miller in the early stages of his march to the top of the division, and besting a wild man like Landwehr in what will probably be an exciting fight should elevate his status to a new level.
Evloev is another one of these emerging prospects that no one in the rankings has any interest in fighting. Part of that is because there is no real upside to facing an unranked opponent, but part of it is also that he’s a well-rounded, undefeated 26-year-old that could potentially make them look bad while usurping their place in the pecking order.
I think Evloev is the real deal and I’m looking forward to seeing that hypothesis put to the test again this weekend in Las Vegas.
Fighter I Can’t Quit: Louis Smolka
Heading into last week’s card, I noted that Luke Sanders was one of those fighters I just can’t quit — someone I will always be interested to watch compete that always feels like they’re just missing that one thing that unlocks their full potential and catapults them into title contention.
Sanders then went out and showed exactly why I can’t quit him and why I should quit him all at once, starting quickly and looking sharp before getting loose and getting stopped by Nate Maness.
Louis Smolka is another fighter I should be talking about in an MMA Support Group.
Even though there have been multiple instances where bad technique or a lack of concentration has resulted in setbacks inside the Octagon, there is something about “Da Last Samurai” that causes me to have an unwavering belief that the next fight is when he’s finally going to put it all together and start a run towards the top of the division.
Maybe it’s that he’s still only 29 years old and that in addition to those frustrating losses, we’ve also seen some impressive victories and gutsy efforts too. Maybe it’s because he has great size and length for the division and my years of devoutly watching the NBA Draft have made me too focused on measurables and wingspan and potential and not the actual evidence in front of me.
Or maybe it’s because I just want to see a talented fighter who has spoken openly and honestly about his past struggles enjoy a nice run of success because we all deserve a quality win now and then.
Contender Series Grads
I’ve recapped 37 of the 40 episodes of the Contender Series that have aired on Fight Pass over the last four years, missing one event each of the first three seasons in order to go camping in the summer with my wife.
While some people bemoan the show’s existence because it leads to emerging talent cycling into the UFC at the expense of stalled veterans or middling journeymen, I’ve thoroughly enjoyed spending a couple hours on a Tuesday night for 10 weeks a year getting an early look at potential new arrivals with undetermined ceilings.
Two members of the Class of 2020 make their promotional debuts this weekend as Jordan Leavitt faces Matt Wiman, and Jimmy Flick takes on Cody Durden.
Leavitt is on the short list of graduates I’m most intriguing by coming out of this year’s record-setting collection of contract winners, as he’s an undefeated lightweight with limited experience, but trains with a good group at Syndicate MMA and has an outstanding ground game, having earned four of his seven wins by submission. This both with Wiman is an instant “measuring stick” moment for “The Monkey King” and depending on how things shake out, he could head into 2021 as one of the top emerging talents in the lightweight division.
Flick just turned 30 in the summer, but he’s been fighting for a decade, which makes him an interesting addition to the flyweight ranks. He’s a throwback to the days of specialists in the cage, taking a “submission or bust” approach whenever he’s in there, and he favors arm-triangle chokes and his own variation of the Von Flue/Von Preux choke.
He’s fought some solid competition and recognizable names on his way to the UFC, and is facing a guy in Durden who scored a draw in his short-notice debut up a division against a streaking Chris Gutierrez. Flyweight is buzzing right now, and a bonus-winning finish for Flick could be just what he needs to instantly inject himself into the mix in the 125-pound weight class.
I Want to Know More About: Ilia Topuria
Last week, it was Norma Dumont, who went out and scored her first UFC victory by out-working Ashlee Evans-Smith.
This week, it’s Topuria, the undefeated featherweight who toppled Youssef Zalal in his debut and takes on Damon Jackson on Saturday night in his second foray into the Octagon.
Look — if you show me a 23-year-old with an unblemished record, a host of stoppages, many in the first round, and coming off a good win over a talented prospect in his debut, I’m automatically in. As soon as Topuria started to out-hustle Zalal in their October meeting, I knew I was going to be looking forward to his next appearance because a guy like that is someone I want to know more about.
Saturday’s matchup with Jackson is exactly the type of pairing I want to see Topuria in at this stage because you know what you’re going to get from the long-time LFA staple: he’s a tenacious, experienced hand with strong grappling coming out of an outstanding gym (Fortis MMA), so you know he’s going to be dialled in and ready to go this weekend.
As I said earlier, featherweight is loaded with talent at the moment, which means there is no reason to rush Topuria into the fray too quickly, but that doesn’t mean you don’t set up a fight like this to get a better read on where he fits in the division. This is exquisite matchmaking and might be the fight I’m looking forward to the most on Saturday.
Gian Villante: UFC Heavyweight
Listen — I don’t think Villante is going to go on some kind of run and become a contender in the heavyweight division.
I don’t even think he’s going to continue competing for that much longer, especially if he comes away on the wrong side of things in his matchup with Jake Collier this weekend.
But I sure can identify with the 35-year-old Long Island native coming out of the pandemic and moving up to heavyweight because he packed on some COVID-19 pounds and the idea of cutting down to light heavyweight where he spent the entirety of his UFC career prior to his last appearance didn’t sound all that appealing.
I don’t know if that makes me Team Villante or him Team Kyte, but either way, I feel represented this weekend and wish my man the best.