2021 Preview: Top Prospects in Each Division
Identifying some of the top up-and-coming talents competing in the UFC
One of the things I love most about covering this sport is always keeping an eye towards the future and tracking the progress of new names that join the UFC roster.
It’s why there is a section in every 10 Things I Like piece dedicated to a “Fighter I Want to Know More About” and why I get so irritated when talented upstarts are cast as anonymous or unknown when they enjoy their breakthrough moments or full-on kick in the door like Kevin Holland did over the last eight months.
No fighter “comes out of nowhere” anymore — not when we have Tapology logging all the fights from all the promotions in all corners of the world; not when we have #MMATwitter; not when literally every UFC bout is available for consumption.
There are more promotions and more events, and therefore more effort is required to know who these men and women are before their performances, their hype within the community, or some combination of the two forces you to pay attention and play catch-up, but just because a fighter isn’t getting talked about by the most prominent voices covering the sport or hasn’t landed a main card assignment yet doesn’t make them anonymous.
If you pay attention, you’ll see the flashes of upside tucked away on the early prelims.
If you actually watch the fights, you’ll pick up on the obvious potential of the UFC freshman or sophomore that trains with a quality squad or fought solid competition on the regional circuit.
If you care about more than just the here and now and the handful of names that generate the mosts attention and make the most noise, you’ll take note of the newcomer that looked good in their debut and make a point of tuning in the next time they step into the Octagon, on the off chance that they grow up to be Max Holloway or Zhang Weili.
There is no established set of requirements that must be met in order for someone to be considered a prospect.
You could try to set guidelines based on age or the quality of competition an individual has faced, but invariably, someone that falls outside of those parameters will come along and force you to reconsider the boundaries you’ve put in place, which is why I’ve always look at identifying whether an athlete is a prospect or not as more of a feel thing.
Sure, there are talents and traits I look at when making these assessments — foundational disciplines, who have they fought, where do they train, how old are they, etc. — but you can have someone that earns positive marks in all those categories and doesn’t feel like a prospect just as readily as you can have someone who doesn’t tick any of those boxes but just looks the part when they step into the cage.
And there are degrees to this stuff too, just like anything else.
Tatiana Suarez was an elite prospect with legitimate championship potential when she was on The Ultimate Fighter and first arrived in the UFC — a former Olympic hopeful with legitimately world-class grappling, strong conditioning, and an obvious road towards the top of the division — while someone like Impa Kasanganay lands more in the solid prospect range — someone with obvious upside, but a lot to work on if he wants to develop into a contender in the middleweight division.
Sometimes you’re surprised, sometimes you’re let down, and sometimes your read on someone is exactly right and they become precisely who you thought they would become as a fighter.
For me, the only way to sort this stuff out is to keep watching them fight and adjusting my impressions and expectations, and it’s honestly the thing that brings me the most enjoyment from year-to-year.
So with all that said, here are my selections for the best prospects in each division as we embark on a new year inside the UFC Octagon.
Remember: lists like this are subjective, so while you might not agree with every name featured below, that’s okay — it’s my list, not yours, and we’re allowed to have different opinions.
The Khamzat Chimaev Challenge
Before getting to the division-by-division list, I want to tackle Chimaev, who presents myriad issues for me when it comes to figuring out where he fits and whether to consider him a prospect or an emerging contender or, as some would choose, the best fighter on the face of the Earth and someone destined to hold UFC gold by the end of 2021.
I kid because I’m confused about what to do with the obviously talented newcomer.
He’s made three UFC appearances to date, winning each of them in dominant fashion, but has split time between middleweight and welterweight, literally going back-and-forth between the two. He hasn’t faced any ranked opposition and his best performance to date came in a standard “veteran litmus test” type assignment, all of which are classic signs that someone is clearly a prospect, and a very good one at that.
But he’s also booked (or going to be re-booked) to face No. 3 welterweight Leon Edwards in the first half of 2020 and generally speaking, prospects don’t fight guys on eight-fight winning streaks that are stationed at No. 3 in their respective divisions; that’s an assignment for a contender.
When I break out my list of Fighters to Watch in 2021 next week, I’m breaking everything down into categories, with one being “Emerging” and I think that’s where Chimaev really fits — he’s done enough to jettison the prospect label, but he’s not yet proven himself to be a legitimate contender or even someone who is “In the Mix” at either welterweight or middleweight.
The result of his eventual bout with Edwards will be tremendously instructive, so hopefully it comes together in the next three or four months.
And now with that clear, onto the divisions!
Strawweight: Kay Hansen
Coming right out of the gate with a pick I know some people are going to disagree with simply because Hansen lost her last bout to Cory McKenna, who was definitely in consideration for this spot, but hear me out:
1) it was an extremely close, competitive fight, with the majority of folks scoring at home awarding the decision to Hansen.
2) the toughness and tenacity she showed earning third-round submission wins over Sharon Jacobson and Jinh Yu Frey are the kind of things you can’t teach; you either have that in you or you don’t and Hansen does.
3) she’s the more athletic and fluid of the two, and while McKenna is the more powerful, I see Hansen’s all-around game progressing more than McKenna’s over the next 3-5 years.
Next Up: Hansen is scheduled to face fellow prospect Cheyanne Buys on March 20
Flyweight: Miranda Maverick
Maycee Barber being ranked in the Top 10 and already posting three UFC victories felt like enough to elevate her from prospect status, so I’m going with Maverick here.
The 23-year-old had a strong year in 2019, avenging an early loss to DeAnna Bennett in the finals of the second Invicta FC Phoenix Series tournament, and started 2020 with a decision win over UFC vet Pearl Gonzalez.
Maverick made her Octagon debut on “Fight Island” in October, earning a stoppage victory over Liana Jojua at the end of the first. While you can certainly quibble with the stoppage (the cut wasn’t bad, it just wouldn’t stop bleeding), there was plenty to like about the newcomer’s first five minutes inside the UFC cage.
Athleticism and fluidity are two things I’ve been trying to pay closer attention to of late, and Maverick exhibits both. She moves well, mixes up her strikes, and has some clear pop in her hands, along with a solid ground game, and has looked better and better with each subsequent appearance, which is something you want to see from young fighters.
She needs to continue working on her striking defence, as Jojua was having some success early and more seasoned opponents will make her pay for keeping her head on the center line and offering the same attacks, but she even switched that up on the fly in her debut, which is another big positive to see from someone so young and early in their careers.
Flyweight: Sumudaerji
I talked about my interest in the Tibetan flyweight ahead of his bout against Malcolm Gordon at the end of November and that fight only furthered my belief that he’s one of the more intriguing prospects on the roster.
The 24-year-old has tremendous height and reach for the division, a long, powerful left hand, and has already logged 17 professional fights, amassing a 13-4 record, including back-to-back wins inside the Octagon.
Folks got jazzed when Sean O’Malley beat Andre Soukhamthath, but said little with Sumudaerji did the same thing less than 18 months later, but his quick, precise demolition of Gordon in November in his flyweight debut made it clear that “The Tibetan Eagle” is someone worth paying close attention to in 2021.
Next Up: Sumudaerji faces Zarrukh Adashev on January 20
Bantamweight: Sabina Mazo
“The Colombian Queen” has yet to make her debut in the 135-pound weight class, but it’s on the books for the end of February and she’ll enter that contest on a three-fight winning streak.
Because she’s spent the last two years competing inside the Octagon, it’s easy to forget that Mazo is just 23, meaning her best years are still very much in front of her and her potential for growth and development are high. After looking tentative in her debut loss to Maryna Moroz, the Kings MMA representative has started to find her footing inside the UFC cage, delivering increasingly impressive performances each time out, capped by her first finish — a third-round submission win over veteran Justine Kish — last time out.
Between her obvious talent, the excellent coaching she receives, and the shallowness of the prospect pool in the bantamweight division at the moment, Mazo felt like an obvious choice and one of the few younger, less experienced competitors in the division with the potential to close out the year as a Top 10 fighter.
Bantamweight: Jack Shore
Shore is my pick for the best prospect in the UFC, as the 25-year-old former Cage Warriors champion is 13-0 with consecutive stoppage wins inside the Octagon. If you add in his amateur career, “Tank” is 25-0 with 17 finishes in his last 18 fights.
I honestly don’t know why more people are shouting about Shore and his obvious potential from the rooftops and it drove me batty when he submitted Aaron Phillips in the first fight of the card that featured Chimaev’s debut and got little to no attention because I don’t know what more this dude needs to do in order to get people to pay attention.
He has the Cage Warriors pedigree that produced a number of top contenders and future champions, he’s undefeated and has faced solid competition on the way up, and is a specialist without being one-dimensional, if that makes sense.
Bantamweight is loaded with talent at the moment, so there is no reason to rush Shore into the deep end just yet, but his efforts merit a step up in competition and it honestly wouldn’t surprise me if he took up residency in the Top 15 before the year is out; I think he’s that good.
Featherweight: Ilia Topuria
Here’s what I wrote about Topuria ahead of his sophomore appearance in the Octagon at the start of December:
Look — if you show me a 23-year-old with an unblemished record, a host of stoppages, many in the first round, and coming off a good win over a talented prospect in his debut, I’m automatically in. As soon as Topuria started to out-hustle (Youssef) Zalal in their October meeting, I knew I was going to be looking forward to his next appearance because a guy like that is someone I want to know more about.
The undefeated 23-year-old then promptly went out and wiped out veteran Damon Jackson with a right hand to the dome midway through the first round after getting the better of the exchanges throughout the contest.
His record is littered with submission wins, he out-hustled the very highly regarded Zalal on short notice in his debut, and showed very sharp striking in his win over Jackson — what more do you need to see in order to be all-in on this guy as someone to pay close attention to going forward and the top prospect in the 145-pound weight class?
Lightweight: Grant Dawson
Similarly to Mazo, Dawson has yet to actually compete at lightweight, but after missing weight in his last featherweight assignment and looking strong in a catchweight affair during the summer, all signs point to the Contender Series grad (Class of ‘17) moving to the 155-pound weight class.
The 26-year-old Glory MMA & Fitness representative garnered a lot of attention during his days on the regional scene and has maintained his success since matriculating to the Octagon, posting a 4-0 record consisting of two submission finishes and a couple of clear decision wins over tough veterans.
What I really like about Dawson is that he knows who he is as a fighter and doesn’t try to mess around and be someone he’s not. His grappling acumen is what got him to this point and it’s what is going to carry him to whatever heights he’s going to reach, and he doesn’t go out there looking to showcase his improving kickboxing skills — he closes the distance, puts people on the canvas, and starts trying to strangle them as quickly as possible, shifting to ground-and-pound if needed.
He has an excellent coach guiding him forward in James Krause, a great team around him in Missouri, and the chance to develop into a better version of Al Iaquinta in the not-too-distant future.
Welterweight: Sean Brady
I honestly wasn’t totally sold on Brady after his first two UFC appearances, where he earned unanimous decision victories over Court McGee and Ismail Naurdiev. They were solid efforts, but nothing that really made me think he was someone that was going to maintain his unbeaten record too far into his climb up the welterweight ladder.
But he looked terrific in his third outing, showcasing his submission game and putting Christian Aguilera to sleep with an arm-triangle choke early in the second round after dominating the first.
Maybe he needed a couple fights to get comfortable (he wouldn’t be the first) or maybe I wasn’t giving McGee and Naurdiev enough credit (that’s not out of the question either), but whatever it was, Brady’s third effort was the kind of performance that has me eagerly awaiting his first appearance of 2021.
Now 13-0, the Daniel Gracie student has a strong regional pedigree, a strong ground game, a little pop in his hands, and the potential to be a Leon Edwards type who never really blows you away, but then you look up and he’s won eight straight fights and landed a place in the Top 5.
Next Up: Brady is penciled in to face Jake Matthews at UFC 259 on March 3
Middleweight: Tafon Nchukwi
This one was easy.
Here’s what I said ahead of Nchukwi’s UFC debut:
At 26 and looking like he’s sculpted out of granite, it’s easy to understand why plenty of people are excited about Nchukwi’s prospects and this fight with Pickett will be a solid initial measuring stick for where he stands in his development and what the next couple years could look like.
And here’s what I said after he collected a unanimous decision win on December 19:
The middleweight newcomer looked excellent over 15 minutes against Jamie Pickett, registering the first decision win and fifth consecutive victory of his career. The 26-year-old is built like a truck, works with a very good team, and is too athletic, too quick for a guy his size, which is going to make him a problem going forward.
Beyond the obvious stuff like the fact that he looks the part and is unbeaten in five starts, there were little elements of his performance against Pickett that really impressed me — the foot sweep attempts, his activity in the clinch, his patience — and make me believe that as much as no one is going to be rushing to face him now, even fewer people will want to deal with this man in two or three years time.
Light Heavyweight: Modestas Bukauskas
Only the second fighter on this list coming off a loss, Bukauskas is one of only a couple fighters I would identify as “prospects” in the light heavyweight division, but that depends on how you want to characterize Jamahal Hill and Jimmy Crute, the man he handed “The Baltic Gladiator” his first UFC defeat last time out.
Personally, I think both are more “Emerging” or even “In the Mix,” in part because the division is shallow, but also because they’ve done enough thus far to crack the Top 15, leaving Bukauskas as my selection here.
Like Shore, he’s a former Cage Warriors champion, and he’s faced solid competition on his way to the Octagon. He left Andreas Michailidis slumped against the fence at the end of the first round of their shared UFC debut, and probably got moved up too far, too fast when he was paired off with Crute for his sophomore outing, but the loss isn’t the end of the world.
The 26-year-old Lithuanian has good size, solid power, and a lot of room to grow, especially if he gets the chance to log some cage time against the host of steady, but unspectacular veterans that make up the middle tier of talent in the 205-pound ranks.
Unfortunately, there isn’t much depth in the division and that could lead to a quicker ascent than would be optimal for Bukauskas, but all that means is that he it could take a little longer for him to show his full potential inside the Octagon.
Heavyweight: Tom Aspinall
As much as I am intrigued by Alexander Romanov, selecting Aspinall as the top prospect in the heavyweight division was a no-brainer.
The 27-year-old needed a combined 140 seconds to dispatch Jake Collier and Alan Bedout in his first two UFC appearances, showcasing the swift, powerful hands that prompted him to pause his MMA career to pursue boxing and landed him as a training partner for Tyson Fury.
He caught a couple losses early in his career — one because of an illegal elbow, the other by submission against a far more seasoned opponent — but hasn’t needed more than 95 seconds in order to earn a victory in each of his four fights since returning to the cage.
Training out of Team Kaobon in Liverpool, you know he’s getting top tier instruction and training, and for as big as he is, Aspinall doesn’t look like or move like a six-five heavyweight who tipped the scales at 252 pounds before his last fight.
It’s going to be interesting to see how he does once he’s thrown in there with (a) someone who can withstand that first big shot crashing home, (b) someone capable, at least in theory, of taking him to the ground, (c) someone with a gang of experience, or (d) all of the above, but the early returns have been extremely positive and put Aspinall near the top of the list of Fighters to Watch in 2021.