Fighter to Watch at UFC Vegas 49: Arman Tsarukyan

Streaking lightweight faces his toughest test since his debut on Saturday, as he steps in with fellow surging hopeful Joel Alvarez

Name: Arman Tsarukyan
Nickname: Ahalkalakets
Record: 17-2 overall, 4-1 UFC
Division: Lightweight
Team: Various
Opponent: Joel Alvarez (19-2 overall, 4-1 UFC)

Last weekend, David Onama came through as a fighter that showed a ton of promise despite losing his promotional debut. After giving Mason Jones all he could handle on short notice and up a division in October, Onama returned to featherweight and went head-to-head with veteran Gabriel Benitez, navigating some tricky spots to continually push forward and ultimately secure a first-round stoppage win.

A shade under three years ago, Arman Tsarukyan did the same thing.

Paired off with Islam Makhachev in April 2019, the young newcomer gave the highly-regarded emerging talent all he could handle, going the distance in a losing effort. At the time, some viewed the contest as a means of questioning whether Makhachev was truly as good as his coaches and teammates had long insisted, while others knew the quiet fighter from Dagestan was the real deal and Tsarukyan’s efforts were a sign of good things to come.

Fast forward three years and the 25-year-old has a number next to his name and rides a four-fight winning streak into Saturday’s critical showdown with Joel Alvarez.

Just as Makhachev has continued to show his coaches and teammates were right in suggesting he had championship potential all those years ago, Tsarukyan has shown does as well. He followed up his debut loss with decision wins over Olivier Aubin-Mercier, Davi Ramos, and Matt Frevola before scoring a first-round stoppage win over Christos Giagos last time out. Along the way, the 25-year-old has continued to display the slick grappling that opened eyes during his fight with Makhachev and steadily improving striking, while fighting with the confidence of someone that knows he’s the better man each time he steps into the Octagon.

The broadcast team talked about this a little last weekend in regards to Mario Bautista debuting on short notice against Cory Sandhagen, but I want to expand on it a little here because I thought it was a great point that doesn’t get discussed enough when we talk about these athletes and why it’s not always the result that matters most. Here goes:

No one likes to lose, but regardless of the result in his matchup with Makhachev, there is no way that Tsarukyan came away from that fight feeling anything but excited, as he went 15 hard minutes with one of the top emerging talents in the division at the time. In that time, he found out right away that he can hang with someone on a five-fight winning streak in one of the deepest, most competitive divisions in the sport, which does nothing but bolster your confidence.

Just like Bautista had to feel tremendous confidence stepping with Jin Soo Son after having shared the Octagon with Sandhagen, imagine what hanging with Makhachev over the course of 15 minutes did for Tsarukyan ahead of his fight with Aubin-Mercier, who is a good grappler, but struggled to find consistency in the UFC? He rolled into Edmonton and claimed a unanimous decision win over the former TUF: Nations finalist, and has continued rolling ever since.

Those moments are huge, even if the result isn’t what those athletes were hoping for, and as observers, we need to do a better job of looking beyond just the outcome and seeing the bigger picture, because those fights were terrific indicators of future potential. It doesn’t always work out that way, but that’s where doing all the other scouting and analysis come into play, and looking at fighters like Tsarukyan and Onama and Bautista, those initial setbacks proved to be moments that benefitted them long term and set them up for future success.

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I think Tsarukyan can be a title contender within the next couple years.

It would be sooner if the division wasn’t flush with established veterans and a little backed up at the moment, but in the next three years, provided he remains healthy, I don’t see why he’s not challenging for championship gold.

He has all the tools and talents, plus some of those intangible pieces that you just can’t teach, like unshakeable confidence in himself and a little of that “Lemme show you how good I am” thing that comes out of real contenders and superstar prospects when someone that isn’t on their level steps to them, talking like they’re going to be the one to stop their rise.

We saw it from Tsarukyan in his fight with Giagos, who went into the fight talking about how he was ready to show he was deserving of a place in the Top 15 despite being 5-5 in the UFC and his last two wins coming against Sean Soriano and Carlton Minus, two guys with a combined 0-7 record inside the Octagon.

If you’re someone that has faced and beaten better competition and worked very hard to earn your spot in the Top 15 or still couldn’t crack the rankings despite three solid wins, hearing a guy that had already washed out of the promotion once and looked good, but not great in wins over two competitors with zero UFC wins talk about taking my place in the pecking order would light even more of a fire under my ass, and it felt like that’s how Tsarukyan fought. It was his version of Frankie Edgar’s “There Are Levels to This” win over Yair Rodriguez at UFC 211, and that little bit “let me make an example of this guy” is a piece of what makes me believe Tsarukyan can be a fixture in the title chase within the next 36 months, max.

Saturday’s fight with Alvarez should help clarify that timeline a little as well, as the Spanish standout is also on a four-fight winning streak after losing his promotional debut. He’s earned first-round stoppage wins in each of his last three outings, most recently defeating Thiago Moises, however, Alvarez missed weight for both that fight and his bout with Alexander Yakovlev before that, which takes some of the shine off of those performances for me.

He’s a formidable talent with tremendous size for the division and a diverse skill set that makes him another dangerous, ascending competitor to watch closely going forward, but I do think Tsarukyan has the repertoire to contend with whatever Alvarez has to offer and the overall depth of skills to keep things moving in the right direction through this weekend.

What’s most exciting about Tsarukyan as a prospect and a potential contender is that he only turned 25 in October. As good as he is now, imagine where he is in two or three years, when he’s garnered more experience, refined his skills a little more, added some cage craft and veteran savvy to his game. As hyped as we get for ultra-skilled young talents, most fighters don’t reach the peak of their powers until their late 20s or early 30s, so there is still more time for Tsarukyan to keep improving, keep building, keep learning and still only be at the outset of his athletic prime.

There may be a stumble or two along the way — maybe even this weekend — but I truly believe that in the next three years, Arman Tsarukyan will be in the championship mix in the UFC lightweight division, so make sure you keep an eye on him going forward.