Fighters to Watch 2021, Part 4: Lightweights
Diving head-first into the deepest division in the UFC in our ongoing look at who to track in the year ahead
LIGHTWEIGHT
CHAMPION EMERITUS
KHABIB NURMAGOMEDOV: “The Eagle” announced his retirement following his UFC 254 victory over Justin Gaethje and despite no indications from Nurmagomedov himself, many continue looking to a future where a return to the Octagon happens.
Personally, I think he stays retired and hope we reach a point soon where the speculation ends and Khabib is allowed to move on to the next stage in his life, one that includes continuing to grieve the loss of his father and spend uninterrupted time with his family.
But the speculation about a possible return and his name being bandied about by competitors, media members, and Dana White isn’t going to subside any time soon, so he has to be included on this list.
Note: if and when he’s removed as champion, you won’t see me doing the whole, “Yeah, but he never beat Khabib” routine with whomever claims the vacant title. Winning a championship is hard and deserves to be celebrated, not discredited or diminished.
CONTENDERS
JUSTIN GAETHJE: Gaethje has been everything the UFC could hope for since joining the ranks in the summer of 2017 and his victory over Tony Ferguson last spring was one of the more memorable and unexpected big fight performances I can remember.
It’s not that I didn’t think he could win, it’s that I didn’t think it would look the way it did and watching it again now, eight months later, it still blows me away.
I’m really curious to see what this version of Gaethje can do against the elites in the division because the guy that beat Ferguson looked like he could beat anyone, save for Khabib, and there are some mighty tasty matchups out there for him later this year.
CONOR MCGREGOR: strange as this may sound to some, McGregor is the biggest question mark in the division to me heading into this year, as he’s four years removed from his lightweight title win over Eddie Alvarez and it’s impossible to know with any certainty whether he’s still capable of hanging with the very best the division has to offer.
We’ll get an answer to that shortly when he squares off with Dustin Poirier for a second time, and I’m all-in on that fight, largely because I’m genuinely interested in seeing if the 32-year-old Irishman can summon the dynamic skills that previously carried him to the top.
There is no denying McGregor’s abilities, but skills atrophy over time and you lose a little off your fastball every year, especially when you’re not throwing it all that often, and I really want to see if “The Notorious” one can still dial it up.
CHARLES OLIVEIRA: when a guy is on the kind of roll Oliveira is on right now, having won eight straight, all bets are off for me in terms of putting caps on what he can and can’t do. Four weeks ago, no one thought he could dominate Ferguson the way he did, but then he went out and dominated Ferguson at UFC 256 and now he feels like the new boogeyman of the division.
Think about it: Oliveira has been around forever and is just now reaching this point; he’s on an incredible winning streak, but there is limited upside for one of the other contenders to face him because he’s never been seen as a legitimate title threat or even a serious contender in the past.
But “Do Bronx” feels like someone who has just taken a little longer to figure himself out and hit his stride and it wouldn’t be at all surprising to me if he continues his run of success and eventually forces his way into a title shot, either this year or next.
DUSTIN POIRIER: the way Poirier has re-invented himself over the last four years is outstanding, and speaks to his dedication as a fighter and understanding that he needed to make significant changes in order to reach his full potential.
He out-gritted Gaethje, boxed up Eddie Alvarez, out-powered Max Holloway, and out-foxed Dan Hooker over his last four victories and the only things left for him to do are (1) avenge his loss to McGregor with a victory at UFC 257, and (2) claim the undisputed lightweight title.
McGregor has a way of making opponents get in their own heads, but I think Poirier has matured beyond that point, and I’m so intrigued to see how the sequel plays out in a couple weeks.
IN THE MIX
MICHAEL CHANDLER: I thought about listing Chandler as a wild card since he has yet to fight in the UFC, but regardless of how his debut against Dan Hooker plays out in a couple weeks, you know the former Bellator champ is going to be a permanent fixture in this range at the very least.
Chandler always felt a little undersized, a little underwhelming to me when he was leading the charge in Bellator’s 155-pound weight class, and I’m absolutely open to admitting I was wrong depending on how things shake out against Hooker.
The last few fighters to transition for Bellator into the Octagon haven’t been able to replicate their success, so it’s going to be real interesting to see how Chandler does the first time out.
BENEIL DARIUSH: Dariush is a perfect example of how folks can get too far ahead of themselves at times and not look at the bigger picture when talking about these athletes.
The 31-year-old is on a five-fight winning streak, having earned stoppages in the last four, and climbed back into the rankings. It’s a far cry from his 12-month, three-fight winless run between March 2017 and March 2018, but that’s to be expected when you understand that he was dealing with persistent injuries and barely training during the time.
This healthy version of Dariush is back to being a problem in the lower to middle third of the Top 15 and could climb his way into contention with a couple more quality wins in 2021.
DREW DOBER: the Elevation Fight Team member is one of those guys that hung around, bouncing between divisions, showing flashes, but never quite putting it together until it all started to click a couple years back.
Those initial impressions allowed him to register a pair of high profile upsets in 2020 when he snuffed out Nasrat Haqparast and Alexander Hernandez in back-to-back outings, and now the Nebraska native has a chance to propel himself further up the rankings with a victory over Islam Makhachev in March.
He has a little Charles Oliveira feel with some Anthony “Lionheart” Smith mixed in and I really want to see if Dober has another level to go to in 2021.
RAFAEL DOS ANJOS: after a four-year, eight-fight departure to welterweight, RDA returned to the lightweight ranks in the late stages of 2020 and put himself right back into the thick of the chase in the division he once ruled with a dominant victory over Paul Felder.
The Brazilian is at the point in his career where a decline is likely on the horizon, but that didn’t appear to be the case last time out. Even though he’s 36 and 43 fights deep, the former champion looked the part of a contender and it’s going to be very, very curious to see if he can recapture the form that helped him capture gold in the first place.
It’s crazy looking back now and knowing he left the division following losses to Alvarez and Ferguson, believing the weight cut was limiting his performance. If he’s on form and Father Time doesn’t rear his head, Dos Anjos could be a dark horse contender in the 155-pound weight class this year.
PAUL FELDER: this is the sweet spot for Felder, who pondered retirement following his narrow loss to Dan Hooker in February, then showed he’s got more than a little something left when he stepped up and went 25-minutes with RDA on less than a week’s notice.
“The Irish Dragon” isn’t going to be a title contender, but he can thrive in high profile, highly entertaining pairings just outside the Top 5 if he’s so inclined.
What makes him an interesting fighter to watch this year is that he has options outside of the cage, so I’m curious to see which matchup entice him to step out of the booth and into the Octagon again.
DIEGO FERREIRA: Ferreira is one of those guys all kinds of people were sleeping on for far too long because when they initially paid attention, he dropped back-to-back contests to Dariush and Poirier.
Since then, however, the Fortis MMA representative has put together a six-fight winning streak, capped by a second-round submission win over Anthony Pettis at UFC 246 last January. He slated to run it back with Dariush in early February, and a victory there would catapult him into contender… and set up a future trilogy bout down the road.
It’s weird to say he reminds me of Oliveira because he’s four years older than his countryman, but he reminds me of Oliveira in that folks thought they knew what they had in both, only to be proven wrong.
DAN HOOKER: he won’t like being positioned as the guy at the door to the VIP, but that’s exactly how I envision Hooker in the lightweight division: he’s the guy you have to beat in order to be considered elite or prove you still belong in the title conversation.
Since returning to lightweight in the summer of 2017, the 30-year-old New Zealander is 7-2 with wins over Felder, Al Iaquinta, James Vick, Gilbert Burns, and Jim Miller, and losses to Poirier and Edson Barboza. He’s the perfect top-end litmus test and the exact right guy to welcome Chandler to the UFC.
Edging out Felder cemented his standing as a Top 10 fixture, and his effort against Poirier showed he’s on the cusp of contention already, which is why his bout with Chandler is of critical importance.
EMERGING
JOEL ALVAREZ: when you post three straight finishes and back-to-back first-round submission wins in the lightweight division, you’re going to have my attention.
Alvarez tapped Joseph Duffy and Alexander Yakovlev in 2020, has tremendous size for the division, and feels like one of those guy, still developing fighters that could take a major step forward in the next couple of years.
OTTMAN AZAITAR: the younger half of The Azaitar Brothers, Ottman is 13-0 with a dozen finishes, including consecutive first-round finishes in his first two UFC appearances. As I said with Alvarez, if you do that kind of thing, I’m going to make a point of paying attention and seeing what else you can bring to the table.
The 30-year-old faces Matt Frevola on the UFC 257 undercard and another victory could bring a major step up in competition for the unbeaten Moroccan fighter who has only been out of the first round three times in his career.
RAFAEL FIZIEV: just before Fiziev knocked out Renato Moicano at UFC 256, I was starting to type out a tweet about how I thought the broadcast team was overselling Fiziev’s striking and underselling Moicano’s experience and standing.
Before I could hit “tweet,” the Brazilian hit the deck and I was spared the embarrassment… until now.
I don’t know how far “Ataman” can take things, but you better believe I’m coming along for the ride in 2021.
He’s poised to get a solid push and each bout will provide a greater understanding of where his ceiling rests and the full extent of the arsenal he brings to the table with him, which means this is going to be a very informative year in terms of figuring out where Fiziev fits within the divisional hierarchy and how high he could potentially climb.
ALEXANDER HERNANDEZ: there was a rush to make Hernandez the “next big thing” in the lightweight division following his debut knockout win over Dariush and subsequent victory over Olivier Aubin-Mercier, but stoppage losses to Donald Cerrone and Drew Dober with a good, but not great decision victory over Francisco Trinaldo prompted everyone to cool their jets and walk back their positions on the occasionally abrasive lightweight.
He’s since shifted his camp to Colorado to train at Factory X and registered a first-round stoppage win on Halloween to get back in the win column and put himself back on the radar.
I think Hernandez is one of those kids that needed to be humbled a little and be given time to grow up and mature. I believe working with Marc Montoya will be a great fit and I believe now is the time to start investing in the 28-year-old as a future contender.
DAMIR ISMAGULOV: the 29-year-old Ismagulov beat Alvarez before the Spaniard began his three-fight winning streak, and followed that up with a unanimous decision win over another solid emerging talent in the lightweight ranks, Thiago Moises.
Now 19-1 overall, the Kazakhstani competitor is another of those up-and-comers with an undefined ceiling and mess of uncertainty swirling around them and the only way to get any clarity or answers is to see them compete.
Honestly, given how good Alvarez has looked since and the success he’s had overall thus far, it wouldn’t be shocking to me if Ismagulov worked his way into the rankings in 2021 and was a fringe contender in 2022. At the same time, I also wouldn’t be shocked if he stumbled against a couple tenured veterans and became a middle of the pack lightweight for the next three or four years.
That unknown is exciting to me and I can’t wait to see what we can learn about him in 2021.
MARK O. MADSEN: the Danish wrestler probably has a limited amount of time left in his career given that he’s already 36 and logged a lot of miles on the wrestling mats, but that’s also why I’m so intrigued about him as a member of this division.
Madsen has been all-in on his transition to MMA since opting to leave wrestling and he isn’t going to be one of these guys that tries to slow-play things and methodically work his way to the top. He’s more of a “dive into the deep end” type and with his legitimate world-class grappling skills, I’m curious to see how far he can go.
He struggled a little with Austin Hubbard last time out and doesn’t have another fight booked yet, but if he can address the conditioning issue that limited him against “Thud,” the potential is there for Madsen to get a stern test in the first half of the year, which would provide another indication of where he fits at the moment and what may lie ahead.
THIAGO MOISES: although he lost two of three to start his UFC tenure, Moises has bounced back with consecutive victories over Michael Johnson and Bobby Green to re-establish himself as someone to track in the lightweight ranks.
He’s still only 25 years old and works with the great group at American Top Team, which means we could be a couple years away from the Brazilian reaching his prime and really starting to find the consistency needed to make a run at the rankings, but the interceding years should be worth the wait.
Even if he tops out at being a Rani Yahya-type, how many fun fights and entertaining scrambles did Yahya deliver during his career?
BRAD RIDDELL: the least talked about member of the City Kickboxing team is on a six-fight winning streak overall, with his last three victories coming inside the Octagon.
While I’m quite certain “Quake” doesn’t have the championship upside of Israel Adesanya or even the “Gatekeeper to the Stars” potential of Dan Hooker, I can see him being a pain-in-the-ass Darren Elkins type on the fringes of the Top 15 for the next three or four years, landing the odd marquee assignment and making life difficult for overhyped hopefuls and veterans looking to get back in the chase.
Plus, given the quality he’s around on a day-to-day basis, it’s entirely possible that he exceeds my expectations and becomes a contender; after all, it wasn’t that long ago that Hooker was in the “tough out outside of the rankings” position.
ARMAN TSARUKYAN: I love guys like Tsarukyan because they feel like fun little reminders of my attention to detail.
People were over the moon about his potential when he went the distance in a losing effort against Islam Makhachev in his promotional debut. Since then, he’s won two straight, but the attention and excitement has dissipated, leaving guys like me to continue being really excited about the 24-year-old’s potential within the division.
He’s paired off with Nasrat Haqparast at UFC 257 and will likely be the B-side of that conversation, but a win should bring people flooding back to the bandwagon, where I’ll be happy to offer them the seat next to me. I get a strong Leon Edwards vibe from Armenian upstart and look forward to seeing how that read pans out over the next couple of years.
PROSPECTS
GRANT DAWSON: I’m honestly surprised there isn’t a little more buzz surrounding Dawson given that the 26-year-old James Krause protege is 4-0 in the UFC and 16-1 overall.
Maybe it’s that he hasn’t officially competed at lightweight yet or his past missteps with USADA and missing weight, but whatever it is, it feels like an opportunity to get in early on a guy with the potential to be a contender within the next couple years.
Dawson has been dominant in his four outings to date, and while it’s tougher sledding in the lightweight ranks, he’s shown no reason to believe he’s not capable to competing in this division. There might be a couple setbacks along the way as he adjusts to a new weight class and facing more seasoned foes, but from a skills and talent standpoint, “KGD” has the look of Top 10 fixture to me.
MATEUSZ GAMROT: “Gamer” had his 17-fight winning streak snapped with a split decision loss to Guram Kutateladze in October, but that doesn’t mean the former two-division KSW champ can’t still develop into a factor in the UFC lightweight division.
Anyone that expected Gamrot to come in and roll right to the top of the 155-pound ranks was kidding themselves — no one does that, and despite an unblemished record coming in, the 30-year-old Pole still needs to get acclimated to fighting at the highest level in the sport.
Heading into 2021, what I really want to see is how he responds to the first loss of his career and if he can use that setback as a catalyst to start a quality run of success inside the Octagon.
NASRAT HAQPARAST: there was a ton of hype behind Haqparast coming into 2020 after he sparked Joaquim Silva in the summer of 2019, but the five-eighths scale model of Kelvin Gastelum got finished in 70 seconds on the first show of the year, sending everyone scurrying off the bandwagon.
To his credit, Haqparast responded with a workmanlike win over Alexander Munoz in August and has a chance to reclaim some of that buzz in his showdown with Tsarukyan in a couple weeks.
He feels like the Triple-A equivalent of Alexander Hernandez at the moment — someone people got too high on, too quickly who fell back down to earth and is now starting to rebuild. I’m here to observe the construction because I think those early flashes of promise were real and the loss to Dober is just one of those things that happens along the way for most talented, young fighters.
MASON JONES: the Welsh newcomer, who debuts this weekend against Mike “Beast Boy” Davis, is only the second fighter in Cage Warriors history to hold titles in two divisions simultaneously. Given that the first went on to have a little success inside the Octagon, I’m certainly going to pay attention to the second.
I really like Jones — I think Cage Warriors is a tremendous proving ground, I appreciate that he wasn’t just running through fools there, and that he’s saved his best performances for the biggest fights of his career thus far.
Saturday’s fight with Davis is a great initial test and opportunity to get another read on his skills and where he fits in the division going forward.
GURAM KUTATELADZE: given that he beat someone in this group, I felt it was mandatory to include Kutateladze in this collection as well.
The 29-year-old from Georgia, who trains in Sweden alongside Khamzat Chimaev, landed on the happy side of a split decision verdict in a short-notice pairing with Gamrot in October, pushing his record to 12-2 in the process. He split time between Superior Challenge and Brave CF prior to getting the call to the Octagon and has won nine straight overall, which is no easy feat.
Coupled with fighting Gamrot close, it makes “The Georgian Viking” an obvious “why not take another look” candidate in 2021.
JORDAN LEAVITT: I really like Leavitt’s upside heading into his Contender Series appearance this summer and liked it even more after he made quick work of Luke Flores to earn a contract.
But then he went out and slammed Matt Wiman in 22 seconds in his debut and now I’m fully committed to track the progress of “The Monkey King” because this wasn’t some haphazard, unplanned slam KO — Leavitt framed up Wiman as he was walking him over to his corner and planted him into the canvas with authority.
It was intentional. It was nasty. And it was the kind of “Oh Shit!” moment that should have everyone eagerly awaiting his sophomore appearance in the Octagon.
UROS MEDIC: another member of the Contender Series Class of ‘20, Medic is 6-0 with six finishes and has relocated to Orange County to train at Kings MMA.
Between that and the fact that he casually dropped the best line of summer — “That’s why they call me ‘The Doctor,’ I bring in the nurse!” — following his win over Mikey Gonzalez, I’m all-in on this dude, especially given the major strides we’ve seen from Marvin Vettori over the last couple years.
DEVONTE SMITH: “King Cage” caught a knockout loss last time out, but that doesn’t mean he’s not capable of bouncing back and making noise in the lightweight division in the future.
That fight was all kinds of awkward, as he ended up taking on his friend and former training partner, Khama Worthy, on super-short-notice after a couple different opponents fell out. Given how good he looked in his previous two Octagon appearances, I’m willing to give him a pass.
The Factory X product is scheduled to return in early February against Alex da Silva, and how he performs there will go a long way to determine what kind of future he may have in the 155-pound weight class.
JOE SOLECKI: a member of the Class of ‘19, Solecki was the first Contender Series alum paired with Wiman in his debut, and while he didn’t beat the veteran with the same impact and panache as Leavitt, Solecki still got the job done.
He followed up that victory with a first-round submission win over Austin Hubbard in August to move to 2-0 in the Octagon and 10-2 overall, showcasing his quality submission game. He trains with the Gym-O crew and John Salter down in Wilmington, North Carolina, and is just now hitting his athletic prime.
While he doesn’t profile (to me) as a top-end talent in the lightweight division, I could definitely see Solecki growing into a Joe Lauzon-type, and I don’t know about you, but I would certain welcome more Joe Lauzon types in my fight-watching life.
JALIN TURNER: the thing to remember at all times with Turner is that he’s still only 25. I stress that because he’s already 10-5 overall and 3-2 in the UFC, but his first fight came on short notice, up a division, against Vicente goddamn Luque, and he’s earned stoppages in each of those three victories.
Turner is freakishly long and tall for the division and is working with a crew of coaches who will help him maximize that instant advantage.
He’s been a name on the rise for a number of years now, dating back to his days training in Albuquerque, and it feels like he took a step forward in 2020, which means another big leap could be on the horizon in 2021.
LUIGI VENDRAMINI: here’s another case of someone who got thrown into the thick of it in his debut, but should still be on everyone’s radar as a name on the rise.
Vendramini jumped at a short notice opportunity in 2018 and looked good in his opening round in the UFC before Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos put him away in the second. A knee injury sidelined him for the entirety of 2019, but he returned in October and scored a first round stoppage win over Jessin Ayari to push his record to 9-1 overall.
He turns 25 in a couple of days, so just like Turner, there are still a few years left before he reaches what it traditionally considered his athletic prime, meaning there are two or three years for him to garner additional experience and grow as an athlete before anyone would really be starting to look for him to be making major moves in the division.
Vendramini is the exact type of guy more people should be keeping tabs on long term because he’s shown flashes of potential and is still really young with plenty of room to grow.
FARES ZIAM: let’s close out this section with another young (24), tall (6’2”), developing fighter.
Like Vendramini, Ziam debuted on short notice, landing on the wrong side of the results against Don Madge at UFC 242. He returned last fall after a 13 month absence, registering his first win with a victory over Jamie Mullarky.
France’s “Smile Killer” feels like one of those baseball prospects whose name will pop up for a couple consecutive springs and then all of a sudden, he has a monster year at Double-A, has a cup of coffee in September, and makes the every-day lineup the following year.
Now, Ziam could just as easily become that prospect that never pans out and never hits more than .195 in the bigs, but at this stage, what’s the harm is keeping his name in mind?
WILD CARDS
TONY FERGUSON: I don’t want to say definitively that Ferguson’s days as a lightweight contender are behind him after two losses, but he certainly didn’t look like the guy that won 12 consecutive fighter prior to 2020.
Maybe he moves to welterweight because cutting weight sucks and he wants a fresh start. Maybe this year turns out to be an aberration and he gets back to his winning ways in the first half of 2021 and we allow ourselves to believe in “El Cucuy” again. Maybe this is the start of a sad, disheartening slide into the twilight of his career after a decade of bangers against elite-level talent.
Whatever this year is, I want a front row seat to see what happens.
GREGOR GILLESPIE: “The Best Fisherman in MMA” didn’t compete in 2020 and since he’s coming off the first loss of his career, it lands him squarely in the wild card column.
Gillespie didn’t just lose last time out — he got blasted by Kevin Lee; knocked out cold against the fence and knocked from the ranks of the unbeaten at the same time. Those kinds of things can shake you and carry lingering effects, so it will be real interesting to see what he does when (if?) he returns to action in 2021.
This is another one of those guys that we all got too excited about too soon, further illustrating the need to be patient with fighters and not hype them to the gills before they’re really been tested inside the cage.
AL IAQUINTA: you could tell me that Iaquinta is done fighting and I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised, but at the same time, you could tell me he’s fighting a Top 10 opponent in May and that would make sense too.
The Serra-Longo Fight Team member has taken long breaks before and is on one now, having last fought in October 2019 when he dropped his second straight decision to Dan Hooker. He’s 1-3 over his last four fights and often clashed with the UFC, so would it really shock you if the Long Island native simply left without officially telling anybody to continue selling houses and cornering his friends and teammates?
DON MADGE: the 30-year-old South African is an enigma to me. He’s 2-0 in the UFC and won six straight overall, but he fought once in 2018, once in 2019, and not at all last year, yet there has been no “so I caught this injury and had to have surgery” posts on his IG to explain the absence.
He just hasn’t fought.
Now, there is bound to be some kind of explanation, but I’m not going to hunt it down, at least not right now and for the purposes of this series. I am, however, going to keep his name on my list of Fighters to Watch, just as I did last year, because he’s looked good in each of his two UFC appearances thus far and I want to see more from him.
VINC PICHEL: did you know that Vinc Pichel is 13-2 overall and and 6-2 in the UFC, having won six of his last seven?
Injuries have stalled his progress at times, but the TUF 15 alum scored the biggest win of his career in 2020 with a dominant decision victory over Jim Miller, and if he can stay healthy and fight like that every time out, we could be looking at a long shot worth a good, long look in the lightweight division.
LEO SANTOS: at this point, it almost feels like a recurring gag with Santos, who seems to turn up once a year, extend his unbeaten streak in the UFC, and then disappear for another 10-15 months.
The 40-year-old Brazilian is 7-0-1 in the Octagon and has won six straight, including wins over Anthony Rocco Martin and Kevin Lee, yet he fights far too infrequently to ever really consider him anything more than a wild card.
On one hand, you have to love it because it’s a cool little once a year moment, but on the other hand, why can’t we just get him booked a couple times a year against solid competition to find out just how good the Brazilian mystery man really is.
DAVID TEYMUR: Teymur was on the cusp of cracking the Top 15 after rattling off five straight wins to begin his UFC career, but he hasn’t fought since getting submitted by Charles Oliveira nearly two years ago.
Like Madge, there are no IG posts or media stories explaining his absence; he just hasn’t been competing for some reason or another, and that sucks, because he was really fun to watch and felt like he was capable of making a little noise in the lightweight division.
If he came back in 2021, he’d obviously have to make up the ground he’s lost over these last 23 months of inactivity, but he sure would be an interesting name to drop back into the thick of things in the 155-pound ranks if you ask me.
Next Up: Welterweight