Fighters to Watch 2021, Part 5: Welterweights
Breaking down the collection of 170-pound bad asses I'm keeping tabs on in the coming year inside the UFC cage
WELTERWEIGHT
CHAMPION
KAMARU USMAN: I really want to see if this is the year everyone else starts to recognize just how goddamn good Kamaru Usman is at dominating grown-ass professional cage fighters.
Seriously.
You don’t have to like Usman or his style, but you do have to give it up to the undisputed champion because you don’t go 12-0 in the UFC without being le-git, and when that run includes fellow prospects (at the time) Leon Edwards, Warlley Alves, and Sean Strickland, followed by Demian Maia —> Rafael Dos Anjos —>Tyron Woodley —> Colby Covington —> Jorge Masvidal to move into contention, earn a title shot, win the title, silence your biggest critic, and turn back the most popular fighter in the sport at the time, you’ve got to give it up.
Additionally, I want to see what a year of working with mad strategist Trevor Wittman does for Usman’s striking and overall repertoire in the cage. Coach Wittman doesn’t train a whole mess of people, and when he opts to work with someone, it’s usually because he sees something special in them.
CONTENDERS
GILBERT BURNS: the Brazilian’s rise to challenging for championship gold is one of those “you’ve gotta love it” stories:
After settling in as a very good, but not great lightweight, “Durinho” took a short-notice fight up in weight, beat a previously undefeated fighter (Alexey Kunchenko) and hasn’t looks back since, staying at welterweight and rattling off four straight victories in the 170-pound weight class to land opposite Usman on February 13 at UFC 258.
Burns is an absolute menace on the ground and his hands continue to improve, so it’s going to be all kinds of interesting to see how he matches up with the champion and what he can do after that high profile pairing, regardless of whether he wins or loses.
COLBY COVINGTON: there is a part of me that actually feels sorry for Covington, because he’s always been an outstanding talent, but he wasn’t getting anywhere by simply being really good at his job, and now he’s morphed into a unlikeable douche-nozzle whose skills are overshadowed by just how completely insufferable he is.
Look, as someone who also covets acceptance and recognition for being good at what he does, I understand the impulse to be a try-hard and find a lane that works. I also know that I’d rather be criminally under-appreciated than go the Covington route.
The dude fought Usman shot-for-shot into the late stages of the fifth round, then came out and dominated Tyron Woodley last time out. I loathe seeing him behind a microphone or on camera in general, but I really want to see what he’s going to do for an encore after beating the former champ because he’s very much still in the thick of the title chase and the kind of fighter who will be a problem for just about everyone in the division.
LEON EDWARDS: every time someone other than Edwards gets mentioned as a potential title challenger, I shout out “What about Leon goddamn Edwards!?” as if the powers that be are going to hear my cries through the television or computer screen and address the travesty that is “Rocky” being on an eight-fight winning streak and still apparently needing to do more in order to secure a championship opportunity.
The sucky thing is that because he didn’t compete in 2020 due to numerous coronavirus-related issues, he’s now closing in on being 18 months removed from his last win, which then makes it easy to say he needs to get another win to remind people how good he is, as if winning eight straight doesn’t say that loudly enough.
My hope is that Edwards doesn’t end up getting Raphael Assuncao’ed, which is where you’ve done enough to merit a title shot, only to have politics, popularity, and poor timing conspire against you until you catch a loss in a fight you never should have been required to take and get bounced from the title picture.
Honestly, the one thing I want more than anything in 2021 is for Edwards to get the respect he deserves and the opportunity he’s earned.
JORGE MASVIDAL: has anyone got from searing hot to stone cold quicker than Masvidal in 2020?
Dude was the star of 2019, but between a lethargic showing against Usman (on short notice, but still), campaigning hard for Donald Trump, and not getting back into the cage in the final five months of the year, I feel like all that juice “Gamebred” carried into last year has been spilled.
What the fight with Usman showed is that Masvidal is a matchup fighter — he shines against certain guys and looks mediocre against others — and unfortunately for him, there are a couple bad matchups for him at the top of the food chain.
I want to see what comes next — does he lobby for a rematch with Nathan Diaz? Does he take the Covington fight that makes a ton of sense, but is a by stylistic pairing? Does he look to mix it up with Edwards? Does he keep waiting until the perfect opportunity comes along and end up losing the last few drops of juice he has left without cashing in by stepping into the cage?
STEPHEN THOMPSON: “Wonderboy” reminded everyone (me included) that he’s still a championship-level talent with a unanimous decision win over Geoff Neal to close out the UFC’s 2020 campaign, sending him into this year on a tidy two-fight winning streak.
The karate stylist is always going to be a difficult matchup for opponents who can’t effectively close the distance or strike with him at range, which honestly makes him one of the more interesting potential matchups for Usman in my opinion.
He feels a little “odd man out” to me simply because he’s fought for the title twice before and is genuinely the nicest human being in the sport, which doesn’t play all that well with audiences. But that gives him the opportunity to play spoiler and I really want to see if “Mr. Stephen” as the kids in his karate classes call him can ruin a couple peoples’ title dreams in 2021.
IN THE MIX
MICHAEL CHIESA: the only part of Chiesa’s move to welterweight that hasn’t gone perfectly is the fact that he’s only been able to make three appearances thus far.
Last January, the former TUF winner and lightweight stalwart out-hustled Rafael Dos Anjos to earn his third straight victory and put himself in the mix before COVID hit and he opted to wait for the right matchup to come along while also taking the time to deal with a couple lingering injuries. He’s now scheduled to headline the second event of the year against Neil Magny in a fight that should elevate the winner to contender status and answer any lingering questions about where “Maverick” fits in the 170-pound ranks.
While I’ve certainly been impressed thus far, Chiesa has reached the point a bunch of former lightweights have hit upon changing divisions, and I’m curious to see if he can clear that final hurdle to become a bona fide contender. Magny is the real deal and a perfect opponent at this juncture, so if Chiesa can beat him, he could have a couple more big fights on his calendar later in the year.
VICENTE LUQUE: “The Silent Assassin” got back to doing what he does best in 2020 — finishing dudes and doing it with style — as he posted back-to-back stoppage wins over Niko Price and Randy Brown.
Luque is built to live in the 7-12 range in the welterweight rankings as a guy who snuffs out unqualified hopefuls and less complete action fighters, while also struggling against the cream of the crop. He’s basically a better, far more likeable version of Jeremy Stephens and I’m 100% here for it.
He’ll likely get another chance to beat a Top 7 fighter later this year simply because of how the division currently stacks up, and I think he has the potential to get the job done. He essentially got paired with the worst possible dance partner for him the last time he was in this position against “Wonderboy” and still looked okay in defeat, but against the likes of Masvidal or Tyron Woodley or the Chiesa/Magny winner?
I’d toss $20 on Luque and see what happens.
NEIL MAGNY: you have to hand it to Magny, man — dude misses essentially 16 months of action because of a janky USADA suspension, comes back, and posts three wins five months to get right back into the thick of the chase in the welterweight division.
The Elevation Fight Team member is one of those guys people are never going to appreciate enough because there is nothing sexy or flashy or even really memorable about his game; he just gets the job done. This upcoming fight with Chiesa is a chance to expand his reach with the audience that doesn’t see him as even a fringe contender yet (which he is) and to take another step towards true contender status, and I can’t think of many fighters who are better equipped to deal with the logjam at the top of the division than Magny, who will just keep fighting and beating whomever, if that’s what is required.
Guys like him deserve more attention, more praise, more recognition, and I hope 2021 is the year that happens for him and his ilk.
GEOFF NEAL: in August, Neal was in a hospital bed, septic, and dealing with serious medical issues, so the fact that he dropped a unanimous decision to Thompson in the final UFC fight of 2020 doesn’t change my opinion of him as someone who is in the mix in the division.
I feel the same way about Neal as I do about Luque — “Wonderboy” was a terrible matchup and he’s all but assured a lengthy career winning 75-80% of his fights in the 6-12 range in the division, with the potential to pull off an upset or two against Top 5 talents, depending on the matchup.
What I want to see this year is whether he can take the next step forward in his development and make a push for a place in the Top 5 himself. If we toss out 2020 and just look at how he was trending before last year, all signs pointed to a guy who could become a contender, and I’m curious to see if he can regain that form over the next 12 months, now that he’s healthy and actually able to push himself properly in the gym.
EMERGING
MIGUEL BAEZA: if I were to put together a list of the 25 fighters I’m paying the closest attention to in 2021, Baeza would be on that list. I think he’s a special talent and that he’ll show that over the next 12 months, and I will be sitting in the front row to watch it all happen.
He’s shown everything you could possibly want to see from an up-and-coming talent in his three UFC appearances: quality striking and good power, solid grappling, toughness, resiliency, that little uptick in output and confidence you get when you know you’re clearly better than the guy standing across from you.
Baeza is 3-0 with three finishes since graduating from the Contender Series (Class of ‘19) and has the potential to crack the Top 15 this year with the right matchups and results.
KHAMZAT CHIMAEV: I’ve been super-hesitant to get too excited about Chimaev because — and I mean this with no disrespect to the guys he’s faced — beating the snot out of those dudes is great and all, but it doesn’t prove to me that this guy is a Top 5 talent and future champion.
John Phillips is 1-5 in the UFC. Rhys McKee is now 0-2. Gerald Meerschaert is 6-6 overall, but 2-5 in his last seven, and was stopped in 74 seconds the fight before he faced Chimaev.
Part of me loves the fight with Edwards because I think it’s a chance for everyone to see that he’s not at the championship level far too many people are suggesting he’s at already, but I also hate it because Edwards shouldn’t be facing a guy with three wins over guys with a combined 7-13 record inside the Octagon in order to maintain his place in the pecking order.
I think Chimaev could be really good, but the key would there is could, as in “somewhere down the line when he gets a little more seasoning, a little more experience, and we see him face something other than middling competition.”
The folks that want to rank this dude off because he mauled that uninspiring trio and he has a ton of hype drive me insane, but I’m genuinely pulling for Chimaev to be everything they believe him to be and more because otherwise, I’m probably going to have an aneurysm when it becomes apparent that maybe — just maybe — everyone got a little ahead of themselves in forecasting championship success for this guy after three goddamn appearances.
/rant
JAKE MATTHEWS: I always believed Matthews would grow into his body, figure out how to best deploy his skills, and become a very solid, steady member of the welterweight class, which he’s done.
I also have long believed that he’s capable of more and this is the year where I want to see if he can prove me right.
There have been some stumbles along the way, but Matthews has shown in his last three outings (all wins) that he understands how to play to his strengths, minimize risk, and grind out wins, which might not make for great television, but is kind of the point of all this in some ways.
He has a delicious matchup with Sean Brady on deck at the start of March and if he wins that one, expect there to be a lot more talk about the 26-year-old veteran.
BELAL MUHAMMAD: joke all you want about the nickname or think he’s just a colourful personality because of his social media work, but understand this: Muhammad is 7-1 over his last eight fights, with the lone setback coming by decision against Geoff Neal.
The 32-year-old Chicago native has limitless cardio and an unbreakable spirit, which he’s weaponized to grind out welterweights. Outside of his short-notice debut loss to Alan Jouban, where he looked good, Muhammad is 8-2 with wins over Randy Brown, Tim Means, and Lyman Good, and losses to Neal and Vicente Luque.
Like a lot of the people in this grouping, 2021 is about seeing if Muhammad can take it up another notch and get a couple more high profile wins. Even if he can’t, the charismatic and engaging veteran should get more attention than he does because he’s a damn good fighter.
NIKO PRICE: “The Hybrid” is on this list because literally every time he fights, I’m tuning in; it’s just that simple.
The dude is never in a boring fight, absolutely loves what he does, and has delivered some of the most unexpected finishes of the last couple years with his wins over Randy Brown, Tim Means, and James Vick.
I don’t think he ever rises above the level he’s at now as a wildly entertaining journeyman hanging out in the 16-25 range in the division, but you absolutely need guys like that and if you don’t get hyped every time Price is on a card, we can’t be friends.
Sorry, those are the rules.
KHAOS WILLIAMS: I know he lost last time out, but Williams had a really good rookie year nonetheless and I’m really interested to know if he can elevate his game and make adjustments coming out of that setback in 2021.
Maybe he’s nothing more than a power hitter who is going to spark a few guys from time-to-time, but I think the potential is there for Williams to learn from his loss to Michel Pereira, trust his athleticism and obvious talents a little more, and use his menacing power and presence to his advantage more in the year ahead.
Are you telling me you couldn't see Williams developing into a welterweight version of Thiago Santos in the next couple years?
PROSPECTS
IGNACIO BAHAMONDES: the towering 23-year-old went all “Anderson Silva on Vitor Belfort” in his Contender Series appearance last summer, earning a contract and establishing himself as someone to definitely keep tabs on going forward.
There is a lot to like about Bahamondes as a prospect, from the fact that he’s only 23, but already has 14 fights and that he’s 6’2” to him working with Mike Valle and a quality crew in the Chicagoland area. He’s not someone who is going to make an immediate climb up the rankings, but over the next couple years, it wouldn’t surprise me to see Bahamondes become a tough out who works behind a long jab and steady diet of kicks comparable to how Neil Magny operates.
Personally, I love tracking guys like this, and I genuinely wish more people either (a) paid closer attention to prospects or (b) talked about it / wrote about it more frequently because this is the good stuff to me.
SEAN BRADY: I wasn’t completely sold on Brady, even after good wins over Court McGee and Ismail Naurdiev in his first two UFC appearances, but then he trucked Christian Aguilera, showing a little more aggression and fire and some of that “I’m clearly better than this guy” vibe I talked about with Miguel Baeza and I became a convert.
I still need to see more, but if you told me he was 16-0 and stationed at No. 12 in the rankings on December 31, I wouldn’t be shocked. I think the potential is there for Brady to become a real threat in the next couple years and his bout with Jake Matthews in March should provide a little more clarity on how close he is to reaching that point.
SHAVKAT RAKHMONOV: even if you wanted to downplay that Rakhmonov was 12-0 entering the UFC with a dozen finishes, the fact that he went out and submitted Alex “Cowboy” Oliveira in the first round in his debut makes him an absolute “must follow” in 2021.
Heading into 2021, I feel like you could tell me just about anything short of being a Top 10 fighter regarding where Rakhmonov will be at the end of the year and I would consider it.
Three more wins and a spot alongside Brady in the lower third of the rankings? Sure.
Two losses and his back is against the wall next time out? Okay.
A mixed bag where he still flashes potential, but also some flaws? I’m with you.
Again, guys like this are who I love to watch because there is just so much uncertainty about where they end up and tracking the journey is so much fun.
WILD CARDS
NATHAN DIAZ: Dana White said he’s talking to the younger Diaz about a really promising matchup at lightweight, so his year could be spent at ‘55, but honestly, I’m just really interested to see what he brings to the table this year, if anything.
Diaz is the proto-Masvidal — someone with undeniable charisma and appeal that looks great against some opponents and not so hot against anyone who doesn’t want to just stand in the center of the Octagon with him.
His popularity will get him marquee assignments, obviously, but man, I still kind of think Diaz is just an solid fighter who gets pushed as a superstar because folks like him. I get it, but I also get why dudes like Magny or Edwards or whatever lightweights get bumped from the mix because Diaz moves back down think that all this sucks.
JAMES KRAUSE: I really enjoy living in a world where Krause turns up every four-to-six months, picks up another win, and goes back to being one of the best emerging coaches in the sport as he did in 2020.
The fact that he’s actively campaigning to face Joaquin Buckley is delightful, as is the fact that his only loss since coming off TUF 25 is a suspect split decision loss to Trevin Giles in a middleweight fight he took on literally 24-hours notice.
Krause is just one of those good dudes that is always fun to watch, and if he stacks up a couple more wins, he could become a real interesting potential “agent of chaos” in the welterweight ranks.
MOUNIR LAZZEZ: on the same night that Chimaev debuted against John Phillips, a bunch of people got really excited about Lazzez earning a unanimous decision win over Abdul Razak Alhassan. I didn’t see what all the fuss was about, but I’m certainly willing to take a second look and see if I missed something.
Sidenote: that night also featured quality wins from Jack Shore and Lerone Murphy, two fighters I believe have higher upsides than Lazzez, and no one said boo about either of them.
He’s matched up with Warlley Alves next week and how that one plays out will clarify where the Tunisian striker is genuinely someone to watch or just someone a lot of people got prematurely excited about off one good, but not great performance.
MICHEL PEREIRA: a lot of people were bummed that Pereira didn’t do his standard tumbling routine against Khaos Williams on last year’s final show, but I actually like the idea of the Brazilian lunatic (and I mean that with as much love as possible) dials it back a little and puts his considerable talents to better use for a couple fights.
I’d much rather see Pereira not tire himself out doing backflips and cartwheels and just trying to knock dudes out, but that’s me.
After a couple low key performances that resulted in victories, I want to see if “Demolidor” can maintain his current approach and keep climbing the rankings because I honestly believe he’s a difficult matchup and potential Top 15 fighter when he’s a little less of a gymnast.
SANTIAGO PONZINIBBIO: after more than two years on the sidelines, “Gente Boa” looks to resume his run towards the top of the welterweight division on Saturday night when he takes on Li Jingliang.
Ponzinibbio had won seven straight before myriad injuries and illnesses and infections put him out of action, including stoppage wins over Gunnar Nelson and Neil Magny, and he looked like someone who was going to be a real factor at the top of the division.
The fight with “The Leech” will be tremendously instructive and determine what can be expected out of Ponzinibbio in 2021.
How much fun would it be to throw a guy with an eight-fight winning streak right into the thick of things to start the year?
Next Up: Middleweights