Fighters to Watch 2021, Part 6: Middleweights
Dropping in on the penultimate group of face-punchers I'm paying attention to this year with a look at the 185-pound weight division
MIDDLEWEIGHTS
CHAMPION
ISRAEL ADESANYA: “The Last Stylebender” took things to the next level in his second fight of 2020, picking apart Paulo Costa in a successful title defense that looked as easy as he said it would be throughout the preamble to the pair hitting the Octagon at UFC 253.
Adesanya is now 20-0 as a mixed martial artist and running out of challengers in the middleweight division, which is why he’s set his sights on Jan Blachowicz and the light heavyweight title.
I’m usually not a fan of champions venturing outside of their division to chase additional fights and we’ve seen the “Champ-Champ” thing go poorly more often than naught, but in this instance, I get it and I’m riveted by why the Nigerian-born, New Zealand-based standout could do in the 205-pound ranks. He has the frame to add the requisite mass and the skill to be a serious threat, so after a year where he proved his dominance in the 185-pound ranks, I’m definitely interested to see if he can replicate that success up a division in 2021.
CONTENDERS
PAULO COSTA: “Borrachinha” is too dangerous, too talented, too established to simply fade into the background after suffering the first loss of his career against Adesanya last year, and he’s proven himself to be one of the top contenders in the division.
But like I’ve said numerous times throughout the previous parts of this series, I’m fascinated by how fighters rebound from their first taste of defeat and embarrassing losses, and this feels like a rare two-for-one situation on that front. While Costa didn’t get fully clowned in the cage, the fact that he was carrying on before hand with props and insults and whatnot only to turn around and criticize Adesanya’s victory celebration where he humped him in the center of the Octagon was laughable, and adds to the embarrassing part of this.
I’m curious to see how the matchmakers opt to book the top end of the division in 2021 with Adesanya seemingly set to venture to light heavyweight because they have the opportunity to split the contenders and would-be contenders into two groups and have a little four-man or eight-man play down, with Costa being the top seed in either instance.
Regardless of who he gets paired off with first this year, I’ll be watching to see if he’s a tennis ball or a football when he bounces back:
ROBERT WHITTAKER: the man affectionately known as “Bobby Knuckles” reminded everyone (perhaps even himself) of his greatness in 2020, posting consecutive decision wins over Darren Till and Jared Cannonier to enter 2021 as the top contender in the middleweight division.
As much as I’m eager to see a second fight between the current champ and the former champ, I actually like the idea of keeping Adesanya and Whittaker apart for a little longer so that we don’t run into a Cain Velasquez / Junior Dos Santos situation where their trilogy plays out too quickly and the division suffers as a result.
The trouble is that Whittaker doesn’t have many fresh options left at the moment other than Costa, which would then leave him with nothing but “high risk, no reward” matchups the rest of the year.
This could be a year where Whittaker has to tread water by taking on a couple guys on the come-up, but I’m totally here for it because I really quite enjoy watching him compete and like nothing more than an undisputed top contender.
IN THE MIX
DEREK BRUNSON: as much as Brunson kind of balked at being a labelled a “gatekeeper” going into his fight with Edmen Shahbazyan last summer, that’s exactly what he is and I really hope we can de-stigmatize that word because it doesn’t have to be considered a negative label.
Look — the 37-year-old has been a fixture in the Top 15 pretty much from the time he reached the UFC, but has never climbed beyond No. 6 in the rankings while turning back various hopefuls and losing to superior competition. That’s a gatekeeper, and it’s a great job if you can get it.
He’s matched up against Kevin Holland in late March and I’m desperate to see how it plays out because Brunson is the ultimate litmus test for these surging upstarts with championship ambitions. If he wins that one, the veteran from North Carolina will be in the thick of the title conversation and earn a leave of absence from his gatekeeping duties, so it’s a massive fight for both men, and one I’m really looking forward to seeing.
JARED CANNONIER: the 36-year-old Cannonier had his three-fight winning streak snapped by Whittaker in October, sending him into this year needing to cement his place in the division.
Is he perennial fringe contender? Another Brunson? A guy that got hot for a couple fights and then topped out? What?
These are the things that perpetually excite and intrigue me about this sport: Cannonier looked so good over his first three middleweight appearances, earning stoppage wins over David Branch, Anderson Silva, and Jack Hermansson, but had little to offer Whittaker.
He’s had a rise and a fall and I want to see what happens next because I’m genuinely not sure where he fits in this division at the moment.
KELVIN GASTELUM: there are few fighters in the UFC entering 2021 with as much pressure on them as Gastelum, who has dropped three straight to tumble out of contention and into a place where most of us have more questions than answers about where he stands at the moment.
After going toe-to-toe with Adesanya in a classic interim title fight loss at UFC 236, the former TUF winner dropped a split decision to Darren Till at UFC 244, then got quickly tapped by Jack Hermansson in July, and just like that, rising fortunes turned into a three-fight slide.
I always thought Gastelum had championship potential, but believed welterweight was his best chance to reach those heights. He’s shown flashes of that upside at ‘85, but now I just want to see if he can get back on track and become someone that holds down a permanent position in the Top 10.
If you look closely, his record at middleweight isn’t as impressive as you might think — he’s 5-4 with a no contest, including his TUF win over Uriah Hall, a split decision win over Jacare, and that terrible Michael Bisping fight that never should have happened — and he really needs to solidify his place in the division because there are a ton of new names looking to take his spot.
URIAH HALL: if you’re looking for a dark horse contender to back in 2021, you could do a lot worse than pinning your hopes to Hall.
He’s looked outstanding since connecting with Sayif Saud and the team at Fortis MMA and is scheduled to face off with former champ Chris Weidman in a rematch of their regional clash from more than a decade ago. While a win there isn’t going to carry him to a title shot, it will bring him another step closer, and as one of the more established names on the rise in the rankings, it could give him a leg up over some of the young bucks looking to get ahead.
It’s never been a question of skill or talent with Hall — it’s always been about mindset and coaching, and he’s got both on lock now, which makes him very, very dangerous. He was a little hesitant in his emotional win over Silva on Halloween, but that was a difficult assignment for non-traditional reasons.
If we see the best version of Hall on February 13 against Weidman, we could see a new contender emerge.
JACK HERMANSSON: “The Joker” was in a position to move one step closer to contention late in the year after lacing up a 78-second submission win over Gastelum in the summer, but he came out flat and ran head-first into the hard-charging Marvin Vettori.
The loss completely shifted Hermansson’s trajectory, as instead of being on a two-fight winning streak, he’s now 1-2 in his last three fights with losses to guys that aren’t quite contenders themselves just yet. He’s still “in the mix” as his inclusion in this grouping suggests, but he also really needs to show deserves to maintain this designation going forward.
I think Hermansson will be one of the veterans paired off with someone from the “Emerging” set in the first half of 2021 and how that one plays out will determine his fate in the middleweight divisions.
KEVIN HOLLAND: “Trailbazer” turned in a record-setting year in 2020, posting five wins in seven months to move into the Top 10 in the middleweight division. He’s slated to face Brunson in March, as stated above, and it feels like the right fight because Brunson isn’t the kind of guy you beat if you’re not a contender.
I honestly think Holland is super-talented and we’ve seen that in flashes over this last year. I also think that he “plays with his food” a little too much for my liking, and while I get that it’s part of who he is, I do believe it will get him in trouble at some point in 2021 because it’s not like last year was the culmination of an extended rise that started a year or two ago.
He closed out 2019 getting submitted by Brendan Allen and earned two real narrow decision wins before that against Alessio Di Chirico and Gerald Meerschaert, either of which could have gone the other way.
I’m not trying to rain on the guy’s parade, but I am watching closely to see if his approach ends up costing him as he tries to maintain his momentum in the coming year.
EDMEN SHAHBAZYAN: “The Golden Boy” rocketed up the ranks in 2019, posting three straight first-round stoppage wins to earn a step up in competition in 2020, eventually landing in the Octagon opposite Brunson on August 1.
Things didn’t go his way and he ended up getting stopped in the third, bringing his unbeaten run to begin his career to a screeching halt.
This year is about regrouping for Shahbazyan, who profiles as a Top 10 fixture going forward, but needs more seasoning, which is why who he’s paired off with to start his 2021 campaign is crucial.
It’s tricky because he looked so good against a pair of experienced hands down the stretch in 2019 that moving him too far back doesn’t make a lot of sense, but at the same time, he just turned 23 and would really benefit from logging a bunch of rounds against seasoned professionals before getting hustled into the deep end of the talent pool again.
DARREN TILL: in my opinion, 2021 is a make-or-break year for Darren Till, as the 28-year-old Liverpool native comes in having lost three of his last four and his last two victories being close, debatable decisions.
I always thought the push he received was premature and forced and it feels like that has been proven to be true over the last couple years, as he’s struggled against top-end competition. That’s not to say he’s not talented and capable of being a contender because I think both of those things are valid; it’s just that it all came before he really proved himself and now he’s kind of scuffling a little.
I’ll be honest: Till feels like one of those guys that has a bigger name than his results merit and I need to see him justify that attention in 2021.
Again, I think he’s very talented and capable of being a real threat at ‘85 or even 205, but I need to see it. I need to see a couple quality efforts against solid opposition before anyone talks about his place in the title picture or refers to the Scouser as a star.
MARVIN VETTORI: I didn’t see the Marvin Vettori leap coming. Heading into his fight with Jack Hermansson, I thought he was getting too much praise, too much hype for a guy whose best win came against either Cezar Mutante, Andrew Sanchez, or Karl Roberson.
And I was wrong.
“The Italian Dream” dominated from start to finish, taking a massive step forward in the division and positioning himself for more marquee opportunities in 2021. He’s now won four straight and his last loss is a split decision setback against the reigning champ. Even if you don’t think it was as close as the scores indicate, it’s something to keep in the back of your head as we enter a year where the next title challenger position is wide open.
What I’m looking for from Vettori in 2021 is simply a continuation of what he showed last year — more progress, more development, more refinement — because if he can do that, he will earn a place in the “Contenders” group on the 2022 version of this list.
EMERGING
BRENDAN ALLEN: even though he got beaten pretty handily in his final appearance of 2020, I still think Allen has the potential to be a Top 15 fixture in this division.
I though he hustled back into the cage too quickly in each of his last two appearances and it showed in his performance, but each of those outings can be a learning experience for the talented 25-year-old. I like the move to Sanford MMA for him too — better training partners, terrific coaches, good change of scenery after a number of years in Milwaukee at Roufusport, which is something fighters need from time-to-time.
It’s easy to dismiss a guy like Allen after a bad loss like the one he had against Sean Strickland, but it was just 16 months earlier that he was choking out Holland, so the potential is obviously there and I’ll be paying close attention to see if he can make the necessary adjustments to maximize his talent and make a little run in 2021.
TOM BREESE: the Birmingham native ended another almost two-year hiatus in February, landing on the wrong side of things against Allen before bouncing back with a blistering effort against KB Bhullar in October. He was slated to go this weekend against Omari Akhmedov, but the bout was pushed back a few days to the January 20th card instead.
I think the world of Breese as a fighter and hope we get to see him at his best in 2021 because when he’s on, when he’s healthy, when he’s locked in, the 29-year-old is a complete fighter with abundant potential; it’s just that those moments have been few and far between over the last four or five years.
A win over Akhmedov would be a big step in the right direction for Breese and potentially even carry him into the “in the mix” group. He looked phenomenal against Bhullar, dropping him with a jab, and I’ll be watching to see if he can replicate that effort on Wednesday and set himself up for a big year in the process.
JOAQUIN BUCKLEY: all eyes will be on Buckley this year after his Knockout of the Year effort against Impa Kasanganay and follow-up win over Jordan Wright.
He’s on the main card on Saturday against Alessio Di Chirico and how that one goes will have a major impact on what comes next for “New Mansa” as he looks to climb the rankings.
Buckley feels a little like Kevin Holland to me, which is ironic since that’s who he faced and lost to in his short-notice debut. The talent is there, but he’s missing a little of the refinement at times, which cost him against Holland, but wasn’t a factor in his next two fights. If he can dial that in this year, he could continue following a similar trajectory as Holland in 2021.
PHILLIP HAWES: as I said in laying out the 10 Things I Like about this weekend’s debut show of 2021, I’m all-in on Hawes.
It’s taken much longer than most anticipated it would, but he looks to have finally put it all together and reached the biggest stage in the sport and after an 18-second knockout win in his debut, a big effort on Saturday against Nassourdine Imavov could earn him an expedited push in the wide open and fluid middleweight division.
From this point forward, it’s all about seeing consistency and confidence from Hawes because when he has both of those things, he’s very, very dangerous.
ANDRE MUNIZ: the 30-year-old Brazilian is quietly 2-0 in the UFC and riding a six-fight winning streak overall, making him a sneaky name to track in 2021.
Muniz earned his contract with a quick submission win on the Contender Series, and collected his second UFC victory in similar fashion in September against Bartosz Fabinski, one of those “better than you remember” middleweights stationed in the middle of the division.
Given how wide open things are at the moment, Muniz should get an opportunity against another member of this group or perhaps a veteran on a skid, which would provide a little more clarification about where he fits at the moment and where his ceiling might sit.
MAKHMUD MURADOV: the 30-year-old Muradov has won 13 consecutive fights, including each of his first two UFC appearance, yet I’m not exactly sure what to think of him as we head into 2021.
He’s had some solid victories during that run and I don't want to dismiss wins over Trevor Smith and Alessio Di Chirico as unimportant or lacking value, it’s just that the only real way to tell where a guy like “Mach” stands is to finally see him in there with someone on the upswing, which is why I’m very much interested in his UFC 257 pairing with Andrew Sanchez.
I didn’t include “El Dirte” in this list because at 32, I think he’s firmly established as a 16-25 guy in the division, but that also makes him the perfect litmus test for Muradov as the year begins, as he’s won three of his last four.
If Muradov is someone I need to be paying more attention to going forward, he’ll prove it next Saturday night.
SEAN STRICKLAND: returning after a two-year absence following a gruesome motorcycle accident, Strickland moved back up to middleweight and posted back-to-back impressive wins over Jack Marshman and Brendan Allen three weeks apart to establish himself as one of the top emerging threats in the 185-pound weight class.
People seem to have forgotten that the Californian was a highly regarded prospect before dropping to welterweight and catching a couple losses, but he’s now 17-0 when fighting at middleweight and arguably the most intriguing guy in this “emerging” class heading into 2021.
His striking is crisp, clean, and technical, he’s tough as nails, and with the right matchups and results, he could be knocking on the door of the Top 10 before the year is out; he’s that damn good.
RODOLFO VIEIRA: I really want Vieira to be the next Demian Maia. I don’t think it’s going to happen because he’s a little older than most guys with just seven professional appearances and his transition to MMA hasn't been as fluid as Maia’s was back in the day, but a boy can dream, can’t he?
So far, the 31-year-old is 7-0 overall and 2-for-2 in the UFC, having subbed out Oskar Piechota and Saparbeg Safarov. He’s slated to face Anthony “Fluffy” Hernandez in mid-February, which represents the first small step up in competition for Vieira, and how that one plays out will help determine how to project what the rest of the year could look like for him.
There are some defensive deficiencies that Vieira needs to work on, but he’s so skilled on the ground that it’s hard not to envision him just dominating fools and making a run towards title contention; at least that’s what I hope for him.
PROSPECTS
KYLE DAUKAUS: the younger half of the UFC’s “Fighting Daukaus Brothers,” the 27-year-old middleweight rebounded from a loss to Allen in his debut with a solid win over newcomer Dustin Stoltzfus in November.
I thought he deserved a contract following his quality effort on Season 3 of the Contender Series, but he earned his way into the Octagon nonetheless with two more stoppage wins under the CFFC banner to earn the call-up instead.
Daukaus has very strong grappling and showed better hands than most anticipated in his bout with Allen, which makes him a solid all-around prospect to track at this point. He teased a new assignment on Twitter Thursday morning and I’m curious to see who he’s facing as that initial 2021 showing will dictate how things shake out for him the rest of the year.
I like Daukaus’ upside and am really curious to see what he can do this year because there should be plenty of opportunities for a young, talented fighter like him to make some headway in the division.
DRICUS DU PLESSIS: the former EFC two-weight champ made a splash in his UFC debut, knocking out Markus Perez in October, and he’s slated to face Trevin Giles in March in what should be an intriguing clash of power hitters with potential.
I’m not 100% sure what to expect or how to project “Stillknocks” at this point because he dominated good, but not great competition in EFC, yet split a pair of bouts with KSW standout Roberto Soldic.
My inclination is that the 27-year-old South African will settle in somewhere in the 12-25 range in the division (I know, that’s a wide range) and deliver a few memorable knockouts, but I’m open to him proving me wrong and making a run at title contention.
NASSOURDINE IMAVOV: it’s probably unfair of me to have Imavov’s opponent, Phillip Hawes, in the “Emerging” category and him stationed here, but it’s my list and life isn’t fair.
The Russian-born, Paris-based middleweight defeated Jordan Williams in his promotional debut and is 9-2 overall, riding a six-fight winning streak into his bout with Hawes on Saturday. A win there accelerates his rise in the rankings and changes his outlook for 2021, but a setback won’t change things too much.
Imavov trains with Fernand Lopez at Paris’ MMA Factory, which has a great track record with talented prospects, so it wouldn’t be surprising to me to see him make a steady climb up the divisional ranks over the next couple years and settle in as a fringe Top 15 guy going forward, with obvious room to better that projection.
IMPA KASANGANAY: while he landed on the wrong side of a highlight reel finish in 2020, I still believe Kasanganay has the potential to become a very good fighter and steady member of the middleweight division.
He’s got good size and athleticism, plus he’s shown solid fundamentals for a guy who is only nine fights into his career. He dominated Maki Pitolo in his debut and I genuinely believe that with a couple years of steady experience and strong work in the gym, the 26-year-old could blossom into someone of interest in the 185-pound ranks.
His next appearance is crucial though, because right now, he’s the guy that got put on a highlight reel, and he needs to prove he can rebound from that experience and not let it define his career. One good win won’t change it, but it will give people something else to talk about going forward.
ALIASHKHAB KHIZRIEV: “The Black Wolf” pushed his record to 13-0 and claimed a spot on the UFC roster with a 50-second submission win on Season 4 of the Contender Series, sending him into 2021 as one of the most intriguing new additions to the division.
I got a Rustam Khabilov vibe from him watching his Contender Series fight, but know he has a little more striking offense as well, which is why I’m so intrigued by him heading into this year. I just don’t know where he tops out and I’m hesitant to put a cap on his upside because he feels like a guy that might quickly blow that projection out of the water.
As with most of these prospects and fighters in this series overall, his first appearance of 2021 is critical because that will provide more information about what to expect, where he fits at the moment, and how high up the rankings he could climb in the next 3-5 years.
TAFON NCHUKWI: if you’re not already paying close attention to Nchukwi, remedy that, because “Da Don” is one of the most promising new additions to the roster in quite some time.
Now, I’m never going to be the guy who forecasts championship glory for someone after one outing and before we’ve seen them share the cage with established, seasoned competition; it’s just not my style. What I will say, however, is that I really like a lot of the foundational pieces Nchukwi showed against Jamie Pickett and believe that with more experience and more time in the gym, he could develop into something special.
I was really glad to see him move down to middleweight after earning a contract as a light heavyweight because I think it’s a better fit for him given his size, and his power should translate a little better.
He has the potential to be a Top 5 middleweight down the road, but it’s all going to come down to his training, how he gets booked, and his ability to continue making big strides in his development as he faces tougher competition.
PUNAHELE SORIANO: a member of the Class of ‘19 on the Contender Series, Soriano validated his contract with a first-round stoppage win over Oskar Piechota at the end of 2019, but then spent the whole of 2020 on the sidelines dealing with event cancellations and injuries.
He’s slated to face Dusko Todorovic (see below) on Saturday in a “Prospect vs. Prospect” clash and how that one shakes out will help inform my projections for the Hawaiian going forward. Right now, I see him maxing out as a Brad Tavares type, which is pretty solid, but his age (28) and limited experience (seven pro fights) to this point lead me to think he’s more likely to be a mid-pack middleweight for the next couple years.
We’ll know more after Saturday.
DUSKO TODOROVIC: the 26-year-old Serbian also graduated from the Contender Series in 2019 and also scored a stoppage win in his debut, putting away Dequan Townsend in the second round back in October.
He’s faced slightly better competition than Soriano on his way to the UFC, including Michel Pereira, which is why I’m a little higher on his upside, but Todorovic is also the more unpolished of the two, which is one of those things that you can certainly out-grow and improve upon, though some guys always just remain a little loose.
As I said in 10 Things I Like, I think this is the perfect time to pair these prospects off against one another and find out which one is more prepared to take a step forward in 2021.
WILD CARDS
IAN HEINISCH: I can’t tell if Heinisch got a little ahead of himself after a great start to his UFC career or whether he tops out as someone who resides in the lower third of the rankings, which is why he lands as the lone wild card in the middleweight division.
He looked very good in wins over Cezar Mutante and Antonio Carlos Junior right out of the gate, but then dropped consecutive decisions to Brunson and Akhmedov before rebounding with a 74-second knockout win over Gerald Meerschaert in June. Now he’s penciled in opposite Gastelum in mid-February in a fight that should tell us a lot about where each man stands in 2021.
I lean towards Heinisch being an 11-20 guy in the division because he’s a little limited in terms of his athleticism and overall arsenal, but if he can get back to weaponizing his conditioning and remain focused on the next fight, “The Hurricane” could prove me wrong.
Next Up: Light Heavyweights & Heavyweights to wrap things up