Fighters to Watch 2021, Part 7: Light Heavyweights & Heavyweights
Wrapping up the series with a look at the big boys divisions in the UFC
LIGHT HEAVYWEIGHTS
CHAMPION
JAN BLACHOWICZ: if you can’t feel good for Blachowicz and look forward to seeing what he can do as champion, I don’t think we can be friends.
Here’s a guy that started 2-4, determined that he needed to re-connect with his old coach and team, and then put together an 8-1 run to claim the vacant light heavyweight title, earning his place in the championship pairing and winning the belt with vicious displays of his “legendary Polish power.”
He’s penciled in to face middleweight kingpin Israel Adesanya in his first title defense in March and while everyone is talking about Izzy moving up and claiming a second title, few people are considering the other side of the coin — Blachowicz becoming the first person to defeat “The Last Stylebender.”
I’m in.
That’s all there is to it.
I’m in. On all of it.
CONTENDER
GLOVER TEXEIRA: starting in 2016, Teixeira went six consecutive fights alternating results, chasing each victory with a defeat while looking like a guy whose best days were behind him. Since the start of 2019, the Brazilian veteran is 5-0 and enters 2021 standing as the top contender in the light heavyweight division.
Teixeira turned in two vintage performances last year, getting caught early before rallying to finish Anthony Smith and Thiago Santos in consecutive bouts while showing that he’s still got plenty of fight left in him. In each contest, there were instances where he could have exited the fray, but instead, he pushed through, pushed back, and picked up the victory.
And I kind of want to see how long he can keep doing it and think it would be really goddamn cool if Teixeira rose to the top of the division at age 41, seven years after he first challenged for UFC gold and long after most expected him to fall from contention in the 205-pound weight class.
IN THE MIX
MISHA CIRKUNOV: the Latvian-born Cirkunov is one of a host of Top 15 stalwarts operating just outside of contention as he’s struggled to find consistency since beginning his UFC tenure with four straight victories.
He got back in the win column following a 1-3 stretch in the fall of 2019 with a first-round submission win over Jimmy Crute, but didn’t compete in 2020 after being forced out of a December date against Ryan Spann.
I’ve known and tracked Cirkunov’s career since he was a twenty-something newcomer with a little bit of buzz and will continue watching to see if he can turn his athleticism, grappling acumen, and obvious explosiveness into an approach that allows him to string together enough wins to climb into the Top 5 and title contention.
VOLKAN OEZDEMIR: “No Time” is just 2-3 since challenging for UFC gold at the start of 2018, but he’s continued to face nothing but a steady diet of Top 10 talent. In 2020, he welcomed Jiri Prochazka to the Octagon for the first time and was stopped by the Czech newcomer in the second round.
Oezdemir is the kind of veteran competitor every division needs — an established hand who serves as a measuring stick for newcomers and hopefuls without dropping so many consecutive fights that the value of those matchups is lost.
Yes, that’s a polite way of calling him a gatekeeper, and yes, I love watching guys like this because they help me refine my opinions and perceptions of other fighters, so thank you, Volkan.
JIRI PROCHAZKA: as mentioned above, Prochazka debuted in the UFC with a second-round stoppage win over Oezdemir, showcasing the awkward, somewhat wild, always entertaining style that made him an exciting addition to the division when he was signed.
Just 28, but already 31 fights deep into his career, “Denisa” is one of the few fresh names working his way up the rankings, and he has a chance to establish himself as a legitimate title threat in the first quarter of 2021 as he’s slated to share the cage with recent title challenger Dominick Reyes.
Prochazka has the kind of style that should make him a must-see attraction regardless of whether he’s in the thick of the title chase or not, but now that he is — or could be in a month’s time — that should only increase how closely you’re watching him this year and going forward.
ALEKSANDAR RAKIC: the 28-year-old Austrian is another of the limited number of new names climbing the ranks, though he doesn’t carry as much buzz as Prochazka.
Rakic landed on the wrong side of a questionable split decision verdict at the end of 2019, but got back into the win column with a wrestling-heavy unanimous decision win over Anthony Smith at the end of August. It was a tepid affair that helped Rakic climb the ranks, but it didn’t do him any favors with fans, which means he heads into this year needing to win them back before they can start to rally behind him as he looks to make a case for contention.
He’s paired off with Thiago Santos at UFC 259 and you know that “Marreta” isn’t going to let himself be wrestled into oblivion, so it should be the type of fight Rakic needs in order to take that next step forward in his pursuit of gold.
DOMINICK REYES: I honestly feel for Reyes because I will go to my grave arguing that he did enough to defeat Jon Jones and win the light heavyweight title at UFC 247 last February and I can’t imagine how disheartening and demoralizing it is to come away empty handed.
That was supposed to be his “rocket to stardom” moment and the judges hosed him, and then Blachowicz knocked him out, and now he heads into 2021 on a two-fight skid with guys like me wondering if he’s ever going to be able to get back to being a bona fide contender?
I wasn’t joking earlier in this series when I said I think bad losses can mess with people long term and I’m not convinced that Reyes isn’t still grappling with what happened against Jones and how he was denied his history-making victory.
He’s going to need to get over it before February 27 if he wants to beat Prochazka and avoid a three-fight slide, but I’m not sure he will, which is why I will be pulling up a seat on the daybed I’m ordering for my office and watching intently.
ANTHONY SMITH: losses to Teixeira and Rakic left Smith reeling coming out of the summer, but a get-right win over Devin Clark showed that the gritty Nebraska native isn’t ready to fade from contention yet.
When he’s sharp, Smith is one of the most dangerous fighters in the division and I actually really like him in this spot heading into 2021 — a little doubted, a little under-appreciated, a little chip on his shoulder, with a little something to prove again.
He should face someone else from this range — or maybe one of the upstarts in the grouping below — in his first appearance of 2021 and how that one shakes out will dictate what the remainder of his year inside the Octagon will look like.
JOHNNY WALKER: I wasn’t part of the group that was over-the-moon about Walker following his first three UFC wins and I refused to get too excited about him being “back” after he rallied to stop Ryan Spann in September.
There are obvious elements of Walker’s offensive arsenal that are impressive and make him an intriguing member of this group, but the charismatic, some may say crazy Brazilian also has some flaws, and I’m not sure he’ll ever address them enough to rise above this position in the division.
But I’m certainly going to watch him try.
Walker takes on Jimmy Crute in a very intriguing, very important fight for both men on March 27.
EMERGING
MAGOMED ANKALAEV: I’m honestly surprised there isn’t more buzz about Ankalaev heading into 2021 given how much folks love to moan about the dearth of talent in the light heavyweight division. I mean, what’s not to like?
Ankalaev is 28 years old, 14-1 overall, and riding a five-fight winning streak after earning a pair of victories over Ion Cutelaba in 2020 — one where “The Hulk” was playing too much, and the other where Ankalaev was over the constant matchups against the muscular fighter from Moldova.
He’s literally two seconds away from being undefeated and a perfect 6-0 inside the Octagon and yet there is little-to-no buzz about him as he readies to face Nikita Krylov at the end of February.
Hopefully if he beats “Nicky Thrills” people will start getting excited because honestly, Ankalaev has the skills to establish himself as a contender by the end of this year and I don’t want to hear any “where did this guy come from?” nonsense when it happens.
PAUL CRAIG: you’ve got to give it to the Scottish submission ace, who persevered through an ugly six-fight stretch where he went 2-4 and was constantly being sent in against the next emerging youngster in the division to come out the other side and rattle off a 3-0-1 run over his last four fights.
Craig earned two more finishes in 2020, tapping both Gadzhimurad Antigulov (triangle choke) and Shogun Rua (strikes!) to push his record to 14-4-1 overall. He’s once again been enlisted to face an emerging threat, as he’s slated to take on Jamahal Hill in mid-March, but the 33-year-old feels like he’s in a better position to potentially maintain his winning ways than he did earlier in his career.
It’s “finish or be finished” with Craig, who has only been to the cards once in his career, which makes him the exact type of action fighter everyone claims they want to see compete all the time.
JIMMY CRUTE: the talented Australian upstart got a little unfairly meme’d when Dana White used him as a main selling point for UFC 234 a couple years back, resulting in him temporarily being referred to as Jimmy Fucking Crute, like it was his proper name.
The 24-year-old bounced back from his first loss with a pair of first-round finishes in 2020, graduating from the prospect class and into this emerging category by dispatching Michel Oleksiejcsuk and Modestas Bukauskas in a combined five and a half minutes.
Now 12-1 overall, he’s penciled in against Walker at the end of March and a win there will force people to begrudgingly acknowledge that they should have listened to White all the way back in February 2019 when he told them to be excited about Jimmy Fucking Crute.
ROMAN DOLIDZE: the 32-year-old Dolidze is one of those “I don’t know what to make of him yet” guys for me, which is why he’s on this list.
On one hand, he’s 8-0 with consecutive UFC wins. On the other hand, he’s 32 and faded hard down the stretch of his last fight against John Allan.
Could he be a late bloomer who emerges as a solid addition to the light heavyweight ranks? Yes, absolutely. Could he be a guy that gets wiped out in his next two outings, never to be heard from again? That is a possibility as well.
When you have that kind of potential variance and uncertainty, I’m going to make a point of paying attention to see which of those outcomes or any of the dozens of other possibilities plays out.
JAMAHAL HILL: after graduating from the Contender Series in 2019, Hill quickly found his footing in the Octagon in 2020, registering three wins (well, two and a NC because he popped for weed), closing out the year with a second-round technical knockout win over Ovince Saint Preux.
The quiet Michigan native has looked progressively better with each appearance and earned a place in the Top 15 in his rookie season. While that’s an easier feat to accomplish at LHW than say welterweight, it’s an accomplishment nonetheless, and establishes Hill as a potential Top 10 talent people should be paying close attention to in 2021.
If he keeps it rolling against Craig in March, don’t be surprised if he gets paired off with one of those dudes from the “in the mix” department next.
PROSPECTS
MODESTAS BUKAUSKAS: the former Cage Warriors titleholder fell prey to the shallowness of the light heavyweight division in 2020, getting thrown in with Crute following his tremendous debut win over Andreas Michailidis in June. He lasted two minutes and a tick and had his seven-fight winning streak halted in the process, but it doesn’t mean he’s not capable of bouncing back and still becoming a factor in the division down the line.
With a couple strong outings in 2021, Bukauskas could position himself as Crute’s replacement in the “dangerous young fighter to track” in the 205-pound ranks. He’s expected to face Michel Oleksiejczuk in his first appearance of the year, and how that one plays out will go a long way to clarifying where he fits in the division and what kind of potential he carries.
WILLIAM KNIGHT: the best thing that happened for Knight in 2020 is that Tafon Nchukwi made his way to the UFC and won his debut in impressive fashion because his first-round stoppage loss to the hulking prospect had looked like a red flag warning observers not to get too hyped on the Contender Series grad, but now it just looks like one of those losses that you can totally understand.
After landing a development deal following his win on Season 3 of the summer talent search series, Knight scored a first-round stoppage win and a UFC contract in his return to the Apex, then scored a unanimous decision victory over Aleksa Camur in his promotional debut.
He’s clearly talented and brandishes a bunch of power, but is a little older than typical prospects (32), which means Knight is kind of already on the clock and won’t have as much time to figure things out in the cage.
His matchup with Alonzo Menifield in late February should be an excellent litmus test as the Fortis MMA product was in the same position a couple years ago.
WILD CARDS
SHAMIL GAMZATOV: Gamzatov is a lot like Dolidze in that I just have no clue what to expect from him because he’s 30 years old, 14-0 overall, and coming off a split decision win in his promotional debut.
But that fight was 13 months ago and he’s since pulled out of two additional assignments with nothing on the books for the first quarter of 2021.
Dudes like this will forever intriguing me, so if you need to find me, I’ll be here, patiently waiting to see if Gamzatov ever resurfaces and what he looks like if he does.
TYSON PEDRO: he’s still just 29 years old and he showed some promise early in his UFC career, but Pedro has dropped two straight, three of his last four, and last fought on December 1, 2018.
Two full years on the sidelines is tough to come back from, even in a division as shallow and starved for talent as the light heavyweight ranks.
Real curious to see if Pedro can get back into the Octagon in 2021 and wouldn’t be surprised if he made a little noise if he does.
HEAVYWEIGHTS
CHAMPION
STIPE MIOCIC: Miocic solidified his place atop the division by winning the rubber match in his trilogy with Daniel Cormier last summer.
While most forecast a second meeting with Francis Ngannou, the champion hasn’t tipped his hand at all, which makes him one of the most interesting names to follow heading into this year.
The risk-reward of facing Ngannou is extremely high, especially for Miocic, who already outworked the powerhouse at UFC 220, but it doesn't seem like there are many other options for him at this time, which could result in his absence stretching out into the summer.
Miocic has already accomplished all he could hope for in the Octagon, so it wouldn’t be overly surprising to me if he just bounced at some point this year, but I could also see him lobbying hard for the chance to fight Jon Jones before calling it a day.
Whatever happens, I’m going to be paying attention and you should too.
CONTENDERS
CURTIS BLAYDES: the UFC screwed up booking Blaydes and Ngannou together for a second time in November 2018 because now that potential top-end rivalry is already washed since Ngannou is up 2-0.
The Elevation Fight Team member has beaten literally everyone else he’s faced and enters 2021 on a four-fight winning streak, with a date with Derrick Lewis on the books for late February after being scuttled at the 11th hour at the end of November.
Blaydes continues to improve between each fight and has the potential to be a dominant force in the division (he kind of is already), but the real question mark is always going to be whether he can hang with Ngannou or another powerhouse like him… not like there is anyone like Ngannou.
FRANCIS NGANNOU: if you want to know why Miocic is in no hurry to hustle into the Octagon with Ngannou for a second time, consider this: the Cameroonian heavyweight has earned four consecutive victories over Blaydes, Cain Velasquez, Junior Dos Santos, and Jairzinho Rozenstruik in a combined 162 seconds.
That’s two minutes and 42 seconds, total, to lay out two former champions and two potential contenders, and he’s hasn’t broken a sweat in any of those engagements.
Ngannou is the scariest fighter on the roster and I really, really, really hope we see him a couple times in 2021.
IN THE MIX
CIRYL GANE: the 30-year-old Frenchman pushed his record to 7-0 overall with a second-round stoppage win over Junior Dos Santos in December, earning a place on the fringes of contention and setting himself up for additional marquee assignments in the year ahead.
Gane moves differently than most heavyweights — he’s more fluid, more athletic, more bouncy — and has shown the kind of diverse arsenal you don’t often see in the big boy division, all of which makes him a compelling figure in a division that has grown a little stagnant in recent years.
He’s signed on to face Rozenstruik in mid-March and a win there would put him within range of a title shot, should things ever get moving at the top end again.
DERRICK LEWIS: every time I want to say that Lewis tops out as the VIP gatekeeper in the heavyweight division, I think about his inhuman power and the fact that he rose to earn a place in the Top 5 on a balky knee that is no longer causing him various injuries and ailments.
He’s 3-0 since getting his knee fixed and looks to be in tremendous shape if his IG posts are any indication. If this dude is finally able to take his conditioning seriously and is putting in the work — and I have no reason to doubt that he isn’t — all bets are off because there are things Lewis brings to the Octagon you just can’t prepare for in the gym.
His bout with Blaydes on February 20 will dictate where he ends up in the second half of the year.
ALEKSEI OLEINIK: the 43-year-old isn’t going to be challenging for gold, but he’s an entertaining specialist who is perfectly suited to play the gatekeeper role in the heavyweight division, turning back has-beens, never-weres, and over-eager upstarts looking to build a name by beating him.
Between his lumbering striking style and assortment of creative chokes, Oleinik is must-see TV, especially for a guy like me that is a year younger than “The Boa Constrictor” and could always use a little more motivation to hit the gym.
ALISTAIR OVEREEM: whenever you want to write off “The Reem,” he finds a way to pivot and get you excited again.
His year-end loss to Rozenstruik in 2019 felt like his swan song as a potential contender, but back-to-back stoppage wins over Walt Harris and Augusto Sakai in 2020 showed Overeem might just have one more run left in him.
His early February matchup against Alexander Volkov will be telling because that’s the kind of fight the 40-year-old veteran needs to win if he wants to keep marching towards another shot at the UFC heavyweight title, the one belt that is missing from his mantle.
JAIRZINHO ROZENSTRUIK: “Bigi Boy” had his unbeaten run halted in devastating fashion in May when Ngannou chased him backwards into the fence and put him on the deck in 20 seconds, but he rebounded with a very good effort against Junior Dos Santos in August to re-affirm his position as a Top 10 heavyweight.
Next up is a meeting with Gane in March, which could determine whether Rozenstruik remains a contender or shuffles into a gatekeeper role in the division, at least for the time being.
All six of his UFC appearances have ended inside the distance, so at the very least, you know you’re going to be entertained whenever the big man from Suriname steps into the Octagon.
AUGUSTO SAKAI: the Brazilian had his four-fight UFC winning streak snapped by Overeem in September and probably tops out in the 8-12 range in the division, but a guy like that is always going to get solid assignments in the shallow heavyweight ranks and be a part of some important fights that determine who moves forward in the division and takes a step back.
Additionally, Sakai is only 29, so it’s not out of the realm of possibility that he makes some adjustments, learns from his loss, and embarks on another solid run of success in 2021 and beyond that carries him into contention.
Again, it’s heavyweight and it only takes a couple quality wins to land in the mix, so why not track as many of these dudes as possible so you know what’s up when one of them pops up in a pivotal fight?
ALEXANDER VOLKOV: “Drago” is one of those guys that people just don’t appreciate enough.
The 32-year-old Russian is 32-8, looked tremendous in his win over Walt Harris in October, where he earned the finish with a front kick to the solar plexus, and is one Derrick Lewis ‘Hail Mary’ away from being 6-1 in the UFC with his lone loss coming against Curtis Blaydes.
If he adds a victory over Overeem to his resume in February, the towering former Bellator champ with the re-worked back tattoo will be back in the thick of the chase in the heavyweight division.
EMERGING
TANNER BOSER: everyone’s favorite Albertan earned consecutive stoppage wins in the summer to land on the heavyweight radar, but then pooped the bed a little against Andrei Arlovski, dropping a unanimous decision to the veteran holdover where he was a little to hesitant with his hands.
Now 2-2 in the UFC, I’m going to give Boser the benefit of the doubt coming out of his last fight because (a) it’s my list and I can do what I want, (b) I think you can make a case for him winning the contest, and (c) he immediately acknowledged having messed things up, and that kind of self-reflection and recognition goes a long way with me.
A couple quality wins in 2021 combined with more can opening tricks and general Letterkenny-ness will get Boser moving in the right direction both inside and outside of the Octagon.
SERGEI PAVLOVICH: the former Fight Nights Global champ got done dirty in his UFC debut, as he was thrown in with Overeem, who bounced him from the ranks of the unbeaten in less than around.
Pavlovich has since rebounded with consecutive first-round stoppage wins of his own over Marcelo Golm and Maurice Greene, before a date with Gane was scrapped, preventing him from completing his sweep of UFC heavyweights whose last names begin with the letter G.
He’s 28, he looks the part, and his results show that it isn’t all smoke and mirrors. He’s already landed a place in the Top 15 and with a couple strong performances against established talents in the year ahead, Pavlovich is poised to crack the Top 10.
TAI TUIVASA: I tend to feel like Tuivasa got hustled into the deep end too quickly while also getting high on his own supply a little, resulting in a three-fight slide that had him looking like a dude that was going to wash out of the UFC just as quickly as he rolled in.
But he got back into the win column in 2020 and is still only 27, so I’m willing to roll the dice on the man who introduced the MMA audience to “the shoey” and see if he can parlay some of the natural talent and athleticism he has into another quality run inside the cage.
PROSPECTS
TOM ASPINALL: this dude looks like he could be a future problem in the heavyweight division — 27 years old and sporting quick, powerful, polished hands, Aspinall made quick work of his first two UFC opponents in 2020 and is getting fast-tracked towards contention with a first-quarter pairing against Andrei Arlovski on deck.
The Team Kaobon member pressed pause on his MMA career to explore a boxing career a few years back and he’s used the skills he sharpened in the cage to make himself into a live prospect inside the Octagon.
Like Gane, he moves differently than most heavyweights and if he can work on all the things that usually trip up talented, emerging strikers like wrestling and takedown defense, Aspinall could make some waves in the heavyweight ranks.
CHRIS DAUKAUS: when you earn a pair of first-round stoppage wins inside the Octagon during your rookie campaign, I’m going to pay attention to you as a sophomore.
Daukaus joined his kid brother Kyle on the UFC roster in August, and has a 2-0 record by mid-October, following up his debut win over Parker Porter with a 45-second knockout victory over Rodrigo Nascimento.
He’s got a “let’s see where you stand” fight against Oleinik booked for late February and if he passes that test, people are going to have to acknowledge that the generic looking Philadelphia area police officer is one of the top emerging talents in the UFC heavyweight division.
ALEXANDER ROMANOV: let me do the math for you on why I’m all-in on Romanov heading into 2020:
HW + unbeaten (13-0) + all finishes + “King Kong” + Foundation Style: Sumo + forearm choke = One of My Guys
In addition to all that, Romanov is only 32, which is like 25 in heavyweight years, so the better question is why aren’t you more excited to track his progress?
JUSTIN TAFA: here’s what I said about Tafa heading into his 2021 debut against Carlos Felipe this weekend:
The 27-year-old “Bad Man” is one of those random dudes I’m always going to want to see fight because his approach is pretty simple: step in, step up, and smash.
He ran onto a counter right hand against Yorgan De Castro in his debut, but mauled Juan Adams in his sophomore appearance last February to push his record to 4-1. This weekend, he faces fellow neophyte Carlos Felipe in one of those preliminary card heavyweight pairings that will either be wildly entertaining and end with something memorable or descend into sloppy, lumbering awfulness.
I believe his sophomore showing is more representative of who he is as a fighter and I’m willing to tune in this weekend and be proven wrong more than I want to overlook him and miss out on an intriguing, developing heavyweight.
WILD CARD
JUAN ESPINO: “El Guapo” has a little Leo Santos to him in that he won his season of The Ultimate Fighter and now feels like someone that will turn up every couple of years, submit a random, and recede into the darkness once again.
Espino made his post-TUF debut in September, quickly choking out Jeff Hughes with a scarf hold for his 10th consecutive win. His only loss to date came in his debut, against Vitaly Minakov, who is really, really good, and I want with all my heart for the UFC to find a way to get Espino in the cage regularly because at the very least, he’s a Spanish Oleinik and that is really interesting to me.
We’ll see if they can make it happen, though I’m not holding my breath.
Thanks for reading this long, intensive labour of love; I really appreciate it! ESK