Fighters to Watch 2022: Lightweights

The most populous division in the UFC offers the most fighters to keep tabs on in the coming year

How everybody enjoying the series so far?

It’s a bear to write, but I’m going to be honest with you: I love it.

Even if no one read this thing (and I know people are reading it and I appreciate you all), I would still do it because I like there being a written record of my thoughts on fighters heading into the year. It’s the same reason I publicly keep track of my prediction record here as well: there is something important to me about showing your work, keeping receipts, identifying times where you got things right, and acknowledging all the times you got things wrong as well.

That’s not a shot at or a knock on anyone else either, just so we’re clear — that’s a 100% pure me-focused statement, because ultimately, I’m the only person I’m worried about when it comes to this stuff and the only one I can hold accountable.

Lightweight offers the greater collection of fighters in one divisions in this series — flyweight and bantamweight have more combined, but represent two divisions each — and there are lot more long-range, pivotal year guys than I thought there would be when I was putting this list together initially.

Because we’ve all been so focused on the top end of the division for the last couple years (understandably), it didn’t quite register to me that there are still a bunch of up-and-coming talents making their way up the ranks with the potential to make some noise in 2022 and beyond.

So let’s get to it!

Check out previous instalments in the Fighters to Watch 2022 series here (number of athletes discussed in parenthesis):

Strawweights (29)
Flyweights (41)
Bantamweights (43)
Featherweights (31)

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LIGHTWEIGHT

CHAMPION: CHARLES OLIVEIRA

It’s impossible not to be happy for Charles Oliveira heading into 2022.

Even if you’re the biggest Dustin Poirier fan on the planet (or Dustin Poirier himself), there still has to be a piece of you that is happy for the Brazilian veteran, who became the fighter with the most appearances before claiming championship gold, and then solidified his standing atop the division with a third-round submission win over “The Diamond” to close out 2021.

This next year feels like it’s going to be extremely interesting from a prediction standpoint with Oliveira, as there are multiple dangerous challengers (and Conor McGregor) angling for championship opportunities, while he still carries a little of that “are we sure he’s the best lightweight in the world?” hesitancy because it’s really hard to re-shape what you think about an athlete more than 10 years into their careers, even when they’ve given you plenty of reasons to re-shape your thinking about them.

What has really stood out for me over the last year with Oliveira is that he’s weathering damage and battling back in an entirely different way than he did early in his career. The dynamic finishing has always been there and he’s an absolute monster when he’s the hammer, but he used to search for exits when he was stuck being the nail, but that isn’t the case any more. That dude is gone, replaced by someone that took the best Michael Chandler and Poirier had to offer, navigated the rough terrain, and finished them both.

It’s been incredible to watch his continued ascent and I look forward to seeing where he takes things in 2022.

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JOEL ALVAREZ: the streaking Spaniard has won four straight, all by stoppage, but he’s missed weight in each of his last two appearances, which is sure to slow his ascent. Alvarez has incredible size for the division, clearly has a nose for finishing fights, and could be a problem for a lot of people, but he has to make weight. One more miss and he’s going to get banished to welterweight, where his advantages aren’t as great.

RAFAEL ALVES: I wasn’t going to include Alves because he’s 31, has 30 fights under his belt, missed weight horribly for his featherweight debut, and lost to Damir Ismagulov in his first UFC lightweight appearance, but the finishing sequence he put together against Marc Diakiese made me reconsider. He may not make a run at the Top 15, but Alves could spoil some plans and put forth some impressive efforts in 2022.

IGNACIO BAHAMONDES: I don’t want to put too much stock into his spinning wheel kick finish of Roosevelt Roberts because expected finishes like that is unreasonable. The reason I’m including Bahamondes is because he’s 24 years old and still developing as a fighter, and if he ever figures out how to use his considerable length and avoid getting into wars with much smaller fighters, he could be dangerous. Of course, we said that about Stefan Struve for years and it never happened, so proceed with caution when it comes to attaching yourself to Bahamondes’ upside.

MICHAEL CHANDLER: watching Michael Chandler fight is a must; it’s as simple as that. He went 1-for-3 in his first year in the UFC and I still picked him as my Top Newcomer when we did our staff picks for the UFC website because all three fights were must-see affairs, plus losing to Oliveira and Justin Gaethje is no reason to hang your head. He’s in a weird spot heading into 2022, but more than capable of collecting a couple big wins and being right back in the thick of the chase.

BENEIL DARIUSH: Dariush is the new Oliveira — the latest low-key grappler that is having to win more fights than he should in order to earn a championship opportunity. “Benny” has won seven straight, including two in 2021, and yet his path to a title opportunity still goes through Islam Makhachev, which would feel like a cruel joke if it wasn’t what seemingly happens to one or two lightweight contenders every couple of years.

MIKE DAVIS: “Beast Boy” returned after a year on the sidelines to register a unanimous decision win over the debuting Mason Jones in an early 2021 Fight of the Year contender that people forgot about once the year really got rolling. Davis has slick boxing, good power, and a bushel of upside, but he needs to stay healthy and active in order to maximize things. His two career losses came to Sodiq Yusuff on DWCS and Gilbert Burns in a short-notice assignment, so I’m real curious to see what he can do if he fights two or three times in 2022.

GRANT DAWSON: a graduate of DWCS, Dawson’s momentum slowed in 2021 despite the fact that he didn’t lose a fight, posting a 1-0-1 record in two starts. He struggled a little with Leo Santos before getting the Brazilian veteran out of there at the very last minute, and then faded hard in a matchup with tough Midwest grinder Ricky Glenn in October. He’s 17-1-1 for his career, works with a great camp at Glory MMA & Fitness, and is still one of the better prospects in the division, but 2022 is a critical year in his development.

RAFAEL DOS ANJOS: RDA is a hard guy to rate for me at this stage in his career, because with all due respect to Paul Felder, I think a lot of people are giving the former champ too much credit for beating “The Iron Lung” on short notice. He didn’t fight in 2021, and, despite that win over Felder, is still just 5-6 over the last six years. I know, I know, he was at welterweight for much of that, but still — I need to see him beat someone in the Top 15 before I’m ready to include him as a contender in the loaded lightweight division.

TONY FERGUSON: I believe that Ferguson is no longer the fighter he once was and he will not be able to recapture that form; he’ll be 38 in February, he took a lot of damage over the years, and he’s lost three straight, showing little push-back in the last two appearances. Are there still some interesting matchups out there for him? Sure, if you’re into seeing a dude trade on his name against others doing the same, but that’s not all that appealing to me. I’m including him on the off chance — I’d set it at 10% — the last two years were a blip and he has a resurgence, but I really don’t think that is the case.

RAFAEL FIZIEV: currently positioned just outside the Top 10 after earning two more victories in 2021, Fiziev should get a big test in his first appearance of 2022, and I’m curious to see both whom he’s paired off with and how he does. He’s undeniably one of the best strikers in the division, and his defensive movements are deft, but as with everyone in this weight class, I’m going to reserve judgement on where they stand and their ability to be a contender until I see them face someone that has already been established as such.

JUSTIN GAETHJE: Gaethje will raise hell if he doesn’t get the next title shot, but I’d be more than okay with seeing him compete again before fighting for the belt, just because he went a year without fighting and then won a slobberknocker with Chandler where it seemed like the former Bellator champ decided he’d rather entertain than win. His approach makes him a threat to everyone in the division, but with each passing brawl, I wonder more and more about when his ability to engage in those kinds of battles begins to recede because I think when it goes, it’s going to just suddenly be gone, kind of like it has with Ferguson.

MATEUSZ GAMROT: “Gamer” was one of my favorite fighters to watch and write about in 2021 and his trio of stoppage victories established him as a Top 15 talent in the UFC. I love that after his win over Diego Ferreira in December he said he’d fight for the title (and win it) in 2023 because it shows he’s aware of how the division shapes up and what’s still in front of him. More than any other emerging competitor in the division, he’s the one I would want to avoid if I were an established fighter in the Top 10; I think he’s that good and expect to see him challenging for gold in the next two years.

GREGOR GILLESPIE: the 34-year-old returned to action in May and gutted out a second-round stoppage win over Ferreira, emerging exhausted after the first five minutes of scrambling, but digging deep to out-hustle his equally spent opponent in the second. His wrestling ability and overall resolve will keep him in a lot of fights and make him an intriguing figure on the fringes of contention, but Gillespie is another one of those guys that needs a marquee win over an even more established name than Ferreira before I will start considering him as a contender in the 155-pound weight class.

NASRAT HAQPARAST: if Haqparast is going to become someone of note in the division, this is the year he has to really start moving in that direction. He’s had some good wins, but each time the 26-year-old has faced someone of real note, Haqparast has stumbled, including last year against Dan Hooker. And there is nothing wrong with losing to Dan Hooker, it’s just that after years of being one of the top young talents in the lightweight ranks, Haqparast is starting to feel like that senior that keeps coming back for one more year of high school just so he can keep playing football and hitting on underclassmen.

DAMIR ISMAGULOV: I really want to crown Ismagulov as my favorite dark horse in the division heading into the 2022 campaign, but dude missed weight by 7.5 pounds in October and even a 4-0 record in the Octagon and 15 consecutive victories aren’t enough to rid you of that kind of stink. He’s still someone to pay close attention to though, as the 30-year-old already has wins over Joel Alvarez and Thiago Moises, but he needs to make up for his miscue and post another quality win before he starts getting a chance to challenge the established set in the 155-pound ranks.

MASON JONES: after one year, my read on Jones is that he’s going to be a consistently entertaining, but limited fighter in the lightweight division, simply because he can’t seem to avoid getting into brawls. His fight with David Onama in October had no business being as close at it was, but Jones was a little too sloppy and willing to trade against the short-notice featherweight, and it left me a little hesitant to really back the Welshman in 2022. If he can dial that side in and play to his strengths more, fighting a little more tactically, “The Dragon” could surprise, but I believe he’s more likely to be a Fight of the Night fixture and than Top 15 fighters going forward.

GURAM KUTATELADZE: even if you think his split decision win over Gamrot was a bad decision or the wrong decision, I have to include Kutateladze here because he battled the Polish emerging contender close, is 12-2 overall, and has won nine straight. He had one fight scuttled twice in 2021, so I’m eager to get a second look at “The Georgian Viking” as soon as possible in 2022.

MARK O. MADSEN: “The Olympian” pushed his record to 11-0 overall with a narrow decision win over Clay Guida in August, and is inked to fight Vinc Pichel in February, which should serve as another measuring stick opportunity. It’s hard to know what to expect or where to position the 37-year-old Danish wrestler because of his age and limited MMA experience, but he continues to find a way to win, so I continue to watch and react.

ISLAM MAKHACHEV: after years of being heralded as the next big thing by his teammates and training partners, Makhachev showed it was more than talk in 2021, registering three stoppage wins to climb into title contention. It pains me that he’s not even in consideration for the next title opportunity — partially because I’d love to see him and Oliveira battle it out — even though he has nine straight victories, but such is life in the 155-pound weight class at the moment. Given what he did last year, it’s hard not to see Makhachev getting a championship opportunity at some point in the next 18 months.

CONOR MCGREGOR: the Irishman has to be included in this list because in addition to being the biggest star in the sport, the standard rules don’t apply to him, and there is a very real possibility that despite suffering a pair of stoppage losses in 2021 and his lone lightweight win coming when he claimed the title at UFC 205, McGregor fights for the belt as soon as he returns to action. We all know it’s dumb, but it also makes tremendous business sense. I don’t think he can hang with the best in the division any more, I don’t think he really wants to, but we’re going to see him fight someone of note in Q2 or Q3, so buckle up and enjoy the ride.

TERRANCE MCKINNEY: McKinney won four fights in the first half of 2021, three of them in less than 20 seconds, including earning a seven-second knockout win in his promotional debut. He’s explosive and dynamic and everyone I’ve talked to about him, including McKinney himself, says his wrestling is even better than his striking, so I’m dying to see what he can do for an encore. If he’s as good as advertised, he should be a Top 15 fighter in the next three years.

UROS MEDIC: I was all the way in on Medic heading into 2021, and after winning his debut in impressive fashion, he got steamrolled by Jalin Turner in his sophomore showing, leaving me wondering how he’ll bounce back and whether I made a terrible read on the DWCS graduate. I still love that he connected with a great team at Kings MMA and believe he has impact striking, so I’m willing to pass off that Turner result as too much, too soon, but “The Doctor” needs a good win in the first half of 2022 in order to regain his momentum and remain a person of interest going forward.

JAMIE MULLARKEY: after losing his first two UFC outings, the 27-year-old Australian registered a pair of first-round stoppage wins in 2021 to confirm that he can hang on the biggest stage in the sport, but now comes the hard part. The middle of the lightweight division is so flush with talent that it will chew up and spit out anyone that doesn’t belong rather easily, so I’m interested to see (1) who Mullarkey is paired off with next, and (2) how he makes out because his next fight feels like it will be tremendously instructive in terms of assessing where he fits within the hierarchy.

VINC PICHEL: Pichel is 7-2 in the UFC, and yet I’m still not sure if he’s someone that can thrive on the fringes of the Top 15 or not. His two losses have come against the best opposition he’s faced — and the two guys that could combat his wrestling best as well — and he hasn’t really beaten anyone close to being in the mix because each time he gets a little momentum, he gets hurt. Beating Madsen in February would be a great step and earn him a more marquee assignment next time out.

PADDY PIMBLETT: I’m not as hyped on “Paddy the Baddy” as some people, largely because, well, how can I put this? I don’t think he’s that good, frankly. Listen, he can have a long career living int he middle off the pack in the lightweight division, getting more high profile opportunities than he should, a la Mike Perry, but I just don’t see the Scouser making a serious run at the Top 15 when he got stung a couple times by Luigi Vendramini in his debut. That said, I’m willing to be proven wrong and will be paying close attention to the 27-year-old in 2022 just to see if he can change my mind.

DUSTIN POIRIER: still great, still a must-watch fighter; there is nothing more than needs to be said.

CLAUDIO PUELLES: the 25-year-old Peruvian has won four straight and has two kneebar finishes in the UFC. I was surprised more people weren’t talking about him heading into his win over Chris Gruetzemacher in December and I’m still surprised more people aren’t talking about him as one of the top emerging talents to watch on the UFC roster, though I greatly appreciate all the leg room there still is on the bandwagon, so maybe I should just shut up and enjoy it.

RHONGZHU: it would be foolhardy to put too much stock in the 21-year-old’s win over Brandon Jenkins in September because — sorry dude — it’s Brandon Jenkins, but I am intrigued by a 21-year-old fighter that has already amassed 22 fights and 18 wins. Obviously, the Chinese lightweight is a long, long-term prospect to watch, but if he goes out and gets a win over Ignacio Bahamondes in February, things will get a whole lot more interesting real quickly.

BRAD RIDDELL: I struggled with whether or not to include Riddell in this list because I think I have a good read on who he is as a fighter and where he fits in the division. I don’t foresee either changing too drastically in 2022 or beyond, but given that he was running tight with Rafael Fiziev through two rounds of their December 4 clash, his overall talent, and the team around him, I figured why not add “Quake” into the collection because he’s someone that always engages in entertaining fights and could crack the Top 10 with the right couple victories.

ARMAN TSARUKYAN: the 25-year-old Tsarukyan is my dark horse contender to watch in this division in 2022 because he’s the successor to Makhachev, and might actually be better than the streaking contender by the time he’s 27 or 28 years old. He’s won four straight since losing to Makhachev in his debut, including two in 2021, and is slated to face Joel Alvarez in February. It’s a great fight and one I’m excited for, but it’s also not the kind of high profile pairing Tsarukyan needs in order to take a real step forward in the division. Hopefully he’ll get that chance in the second half of the year if he gets by Alvarez.

JALIN TURNER: I have to admit that I’ve been kind of sleeping on Turner a little these last couple years, partially because I forget he’s still young (26) and partially because I’ve anchored myself to his loss against Matt Frevola, which is just dumb. “The Tarantula” looked outstanding against Uros Medic in September and has won three straight heading into 2022, where I hope he gets a quality step up in competition and a chance to prove that he’s one of the best younger talents in the 155-pound weight class.

FARES ZIAM: the 24-year-old French prospect is another fighter I admittedly undervalued heading into last year, as he was 1-1 in the UFC and felt, to me, like he had limited upside. He held on to edge out Luigi Vendramini in June, but why I’m making a point to pay closer attention in 2022 is because (a) he’s now training at Sanford MMA, which is a big shift, and (b) he’s facing Terrance McKinney in February, and a win there is a big deal, at least to me. Ziam tall and long for the division (six-one, 75” reach) and he’s still growing in this sport, so it shouldn’t surprise anyone if he has a couple major developmental leaps in the next couple of years.

Tune in tomorrow for the next instalment in the Fighters to Watch 2022 series, where we’ll take a look at the welterweight division.