Heavyweight Mandate: Keep It Moving & Keep It Fresh
The heavyweight division is primed for an incredible year and sustained stretch of exciting matchups, so how can the UFC make the most of it?
These are exciting days in the UFC heavyweight division.
For the third time in four weeks, heavyweights are slated to headline this weekend at the Apex, as Jairzinho Rozenstruik and Ciryl Gane follow in the footsteps of Curtis Blaydes and Derrick Lewis, who followed in the footsteps of Alistair Overeem and Alexander Volkov in being the final pair of fighters to walk to the cage and sling sledgehammers at one another.
In addition to those six Top 10 fighters that headlined events over the course of this month, last weekend’s event also featured Serghei Spivac mauling Jared Vanderaa for his second straight victory and third win in four fights, Tom Aspinall submitting Andrei Arlovski for his third consecutive stoppage win, and Chris Daukaus running through Aleksi Oleinik to go 3-for-3 with three first-round finishes.
What’s more is that next month also includes matchups featuring veteran stalwart Ben Rothwell, 27-year-old Australian Tai Tuivasa, and a championship rematch between Stipe Miocic and Francis Ngannou.
Oh, and arguably the greatest fighter in the history of the sport, Jon Jones, is poised to make his debut in the division later this year, most likely against the Miocic-Ngannou II winner.
If that ain’t enough to get your motor racing about the future of the heavyweight division, well… well I completely understand because the last few years haven’t exactly been a rip-roaring good time despite there being a bunch of intriguing talents and established veterans milling about the Top 15.
There have been five UFC heavyweight title fights since the start of 2018, three of which featured Miocic doing battle with Daniel Cormier, and the first of which is getting a sequel at the end of next month; the other bout was a hastily tossed together pairing between Cormier and Lewis, who fought a month earlier and was quickly out-classed.
Three of those fights happened in 2018 and the division has seen the title defended only once each of the last two years.
While the overall number isn’t out of line with any of the other divisions, the frequency of the title defenses and the freshness of the matchups has made it feel like the heavyweight division has been stagnant compared to every other weight class, but now is the time to remedy the situation.
This month’s slate of heavyweight matchups has provided greater delineation in a division that felt congested and muddled for far too long, and regardless of how things play out in the rematch between Miocic and Ngannou, the UFC has to take advantage of this reset and keep the division moving forward and feeling fresh.
Miocic is already in a similar situation as Cain Velasquez was in when he ascended to the top of the division a decade ago, and dragging it out even further by having he and Ngannou square off for a third time would just be overkill.
When he steps into the Octagon against “The Predator” on March 27, the 38-year-old champion will have faced two opponents a combined five times over the last three-and-a-half years, which is one more fight and 18 months longer than Velasquez’s run of alternating between facing Dos Santos and Antonio “Bigfoot” Silva.
In addition to needing to get out of the cycle of having the same three people fighting for the title time and again, a championship fight involving Jones is too appealing, too compelling, and too intriguing to be delayed in order to have another championship trilogy.
But the need to keep things fresh and flowing smoothly extends beyond the championship picture, as the unnecessary second bout between Ngannou and Blaydes in November 2018 also contributed to the divisional gridlock that is just now getting cleared up.
The fight didn’t make sense at the time because there was limited upside and a whole lot of downside.
Ngannou beat Blaydes early in their UFC careers, but was on a two-fight losing streak and coming off his inexplicable staring contest with Derrick Lewis at UFC 226. Blaydes, on the other hand, was only a couple months removed from mauling Alistair Overeem at home in Chicago, which pushed his unbeaten streak to six.
While beating Ngannou would have been a nice way to add to his run, it would have come when the hulking heavyweight from Cameroon was at his lowest point, and therefore carried its lowest value. Although a win for Ngannou would halt talk that he was “never that good to begin with” or “never going to be the same after being outworked by Miocic at UFC 220,” he’d already pieced up Blaydes once before and doing it for a second time would only make it so that the two top emerging fighters in the division couldn’t really share the Octagon again any time soon.
And that’s what happened: Ngannou blew Blaydes out of the water, earning the finish in 45 seconds in the early morning hours on a fight card in Beijing, creating a situation where two of the top contenders in the division had already fought twice and one guy was up two-love, with no one particularly interested in seeing them face off for a third time.
Lewis took the potential of dealing with that headache off the table by becoming the first person other than Ngannou to beat Blaydes last weekend, but even that effort puts a potential rematch near the top of the list of championship possibilities in the heavyweight division and as much as their first meeting was an aberration, the possibility of a second action-less encounter between the two knockout artists is there and something most would likely want to avoid if at all possible.
Thankfully, the UFC has options, regardless of how things shake out over the next several weeks.
First, let’s run through the fights to make should Miocic retain the title at UFC 260:
Stipe Miocic vs. Jon Jones in July / August
There is no other option — the long-time light heavyweight champion vacated the title and has been bulking up for his long-anticipated shift to the heavyweight division and it would be dereliction of duty if the UFC attempted to book Jones in anything other than a championship fight right out of the gate.
Provided Miocic comes away from next month’s rematch with Ngannou without any injuries that are going to sideline him for an extended period, it can’t be another seven months before he competes again. A four- or five-month turnaround gives him a chance to put his feet up and work in the fire hall for a bit, log some family time, and still be back in the Octagon in the summer for a massive showdown with “Bones.”
Francis Ngannou vs. Alexander Volkov
If Ngannou moves to 0-2 in championship opportunities next month, he needs to have little bit of a reset, which means facing someone outside of title contention, while still not venturing too far down the competitive ladder for a guy that just fought for the title.
Volkov is coming off a very good win over Overeem, but has lost each of his last two elimination bouts against fellow contenders. This is the kind of marquee victory he needs to be consider a legitimate title challenger, while also serving as the type of pairing Ngannou needs to stay tethered to the Top 5 without being right back in the championship mix.
Derrick Lewis vs. Rozenstruik / Gane Winner
With Miocic facing Jones, Lewis needs to stay busy and the only fight that would make sense is a matchup against the winner of this weekend’s main event.
Rozenstruik is 11-1 overall and 5-1 in the UFC after rebounding from his loss to Ngannou with a second-round stoppage win over Junior Dos Santos last August. Gane is 7-0 overall and 4-0 in the UFC, having most recently dispatched JDS in December. They are the top two emerging fighters in the division at the moment and the winner would be an intriguing dance partner for the stripped down, straight power stylings of “The Black Beast.”
Curtis Blaydes vs. Rozenstruik / Gane Loser
Blaydes shouldn’t tumble too far down the hierarchy because he got molly-whopped by Lewis last weekend. His next fight will also be the final bout of his UFC contract, so he’ll certainly want to hit free agency coming off the biggest victory possible, which is why his management should already be angling for this matchup.
In addition to being a quality bout for Blaydes, it’s a great opportunity for the loser of this weekend’s main event to potentially get right back into the thick of the chase by facing off with the Top 5 staple in hopes of sending him to the open market on a two-fight skid.
If Blaydes wins and bolts, it leaves the UFC with a quality heavyweight that’s lost two straight against Top 5 competition, which isn’t the end of the world, and if he loses, the either Rozenstruik or Gane has quickly bounced back from a loss to a legitimate title contender by beating a very talented fighter.
As for the rest of the division…
Augusto Sakai and Shamil Abdurakhimov are slated to fight in May; Chris Daukaus gets the winner or subs in for either man should either be forced to withdraw for some reason.
Walt Harris vs. Tom Aspinall: Harris has lost two straight to Top 10 competition, but is more lively and dangerous than Andrei Arlovski, whom Aspinall just beat, at this point, plus he’s ranked, which makes him a solid little step up for the streaking British heavyweight.
Blagoy Ivanov / Marcin Tybura Winner vs. Sergey Pavlovich: the young Russian hasn’t fought since trouncing Maurice Greene in October 2019, but is still only 28 years old and his only setback came when he was thrown into the deep end against Alistair Overeem in his UFC debut. Facing whomever emerges with the “European Title” between Ivanov and Tybura, provided their fight gets rescheduled quickly, is a solid get-back assignment for the promising Pavlovich.
And then there are still veterans like Arlovski, Dos Santos, Overeem, and Rothwell, younger talents like Tanner Boser, Carlos Felipe, Serghei Spivac, Justin Tafa, and Tai Tuivasa, and complete wild cards like TUF winner Juan Espino and Moldovan submission ace Alexander Romanov to consider as well.
Now, let’s run the matchups to make if Bruce Buffer bellows, “And NEW!” to wrap up the night at UFC 260:
Ngannou vs. Jones: again, it’s too big a fight not to make, plus this version carries the added bonus of being something both guys wanted last year. And just like with Miocic winning, it needs to happen in the summer, health allowing, so that the winner could potentially defend the title before the year is out.
Here’s where it gets a little more complicated because if Miocic loses, there is a real possibility that he calls it a career.
There’s an outside shot he walks with a victory over Ngannou on March 27 as well, but would he really ride off into the sunset leaving a massive payday on the table? Probably not. But if he loses, why would he stick around if an immediate rematch with Ngannou isn’t on the table?
Even if it were, he’s beaten him once already, so why risk losing the series when he can bounce as the clubhouse leader in the best UFC heavyweight of all time conversation?
Going off the idea that Miocic retires, the rest of the matchups shake out like this:
Lewis vs. Rozenstruik / Gane Winner
This one stays intact as the bout to determine the next title challenger in the division. It makes complete sense and is a compelling fight regardless of who wins this weekend.
Blaydes vs. Chris Daukaus
With Blaydes coming off a loss and potentially headed to free agency, why not see if you can’t get Daukaus a massive follow-up win to his recent first-round knockout victory over Oleinik? Worst-case scenario: he loses to a Top 5 fighter, takes a small step back, and tries to re-start his climb later int he year.
Volkov vs. Rozenstruik / Gane Loser
While it doesn’t carry as much upside for Volkov as a matchup with Ngannou coming off a title fight loss, this also feels like a more winnable fight for the towering Russian, who has shown greater aggression and finishing power in his last two victories.
As for the rest of the division…
Book the Sakai / Abdurakhimov winner against whoever holds the “European title” after Ivanov and Tybura mix it up, if they mix it up. If they don’t, slide Pavlovich in there and see if the young Russian powerhouse can pick up a victory over a Top 10 opponent.
Walt Harris vs. Tom Aspinall: this just feels like the right fight to make for both parties, even if Harris isn’t as big a name as Arlovski. “The Big Ticket” gets a chance to break out of his funk against a promising upstart, and Aspinall can potentially register his first win over a ranked opponent and keep things moving in the right direction.
And then there are still the same assortment of additional names to play around with in the lower-third of the Top 15 and outside of the rankings.
This is the first time in a long time that heavyweight has felt lively and intriguing, with a bunch of new names on the rise, new contenders in the mix, and fresh matchup potential up and down the division.
It’s nice, and the UFC absolutely has to do whatever it can to maintain this feeling for as long as possible because a thriving, active heavyweight division emits a different kind of energy and gets people excited in a way they just don’t get excited about other divisions.
The first two heavyweight main events of the year delivered, and Saturday’s headlining act and the UFC 260 championship clash should each deliver as well, setting the table for a potentially electric second half of 2021.
This should be the start of a heavyweight renaissance in the UFC.
Here’s hoping that how it turns out.