Punch Drunk Predictions for UFC 259
How many new champs will we have? Zero? One? Two? THREE?
One more sleep.
One more sleep and then the biggest fight card of the year is upon us.
Four champions, three title fights, and one massive 15-fight card that features intriguing matchups from start to finish, and it’s one more sleep away.
This weekend, it doesn’t matter that my picks have been mediocre at best (but trending up after a 5-3-1 week last week) or what the next fight card looks like; all that matters is the here and now.
I’m so excited and I know you are too.
This is going to be so much fun.
One more sleep.
Here are my picks.
One More Sleep!
Jan Blachowicz vs. Israel Adesanya for the UFC light heavyweight title
This is such an intriguing fight for to me for a number of reasons, including, but not limited to:
We really don’t know how Adesanya will handle Blachowicz’s power
We don’t know how Blachowicz will contend with Adesanya’s speed and precision
We have no idea going in if the size / weight difference will actually be a factor
Where Adesanya’s ceiling actually sits
Of all of those, the last one is the one that informs this choice more than any other because I genuinely believe that Israel Adesanya is a special, special talent and any gap in size / weight on Saturday night will be countered by his considerable advantage in terms of speed and precision.
Shaheen Al-Shatti and Chuck Mindenhall talked about this as Adesanya’s “Forrest Griffin” moment on Thursday edition of The Man & The MITH, referencing the night Anderson Silva ventured up to 205 and embarrassed the former champion, and I had an immediate, “Yeah, that’s kind of how I’ve been envisioning it playing out too” reaction.
I think Blachowicz is an excellent fighter who found an incredible groove and rode it all the way to the top of the light heavyweight division, and he is certainly capable of winning this fight; I just don’t think that will happen.
For me, this ends up being Adesanya’s real breakout moment — the “Holy Shit!” performance where you really have to start thinking about him in terms of the all-time greats, and not just a dominant force at middleweight. He was too quick, too smooth, too fluid for Paulo Costa and I think this plays out somewhat similarly, minus the defending champ calling the challenger in to engage as much.
I don’t think it will be easy, per se, but I think it will be precise and thorough and leave us all shaking our heads at how damn good Adesanya looked while becoming the fifth “Champ-Champ” in UFC history and the first to achieve the feat with a perfect record.
Prediction: Israel Adesanya by TKO
Amanda Nunes vs. Megan Anderson for the UFC featherweight title
I’m not trying to be disrespectful and I’ll be the first to run out and acknowledge that I was all the way wrong if Megan Anderson shocks the world on Saturday night, but the challenger’s two wins over Zarah Fairn dos Santos and Norma Dumont to secure this title shot give me no reason to believe she’s capable of beating Nunes.
Nothing she’s done to this point in her career does, and unless James Krause has unlocked something previously unseen in Anderson over these last 12 months, I just don’t know what her path to victory is here beyond landing a wild haymaker that Nunes doesn’t see coming.
Even if you want to set aside Anderson’s struggles against better competition and make this strictly about the champion, what exactly has she done that would lead anyone to believe she’ll be anything other than dominant on Saturday night? Nunes enters this event on an 11-fight winning streak with a perfect 8-0 mark in UFC title fights.
She’s compiled the greatest resume of any female fighter in history, and has been saying and doing the right things to remain atop the division during the nine months since her last appearance. Yes, this has “trap game” written all over it, but in talking to Nunes both before this fight and frequently over the last several years, I can say with confidence that she’s not going to fall prey to under-estimating anyone, including Anderson.
“The Lioness” is too skilled, too powerful, too focused, too committed, too next level to lose this fight.
Prediction: Amanda Nunes by submission
Petr Yan vs. Aljamain Sterling for the UFC bantamweight title
I’m looking forward to literally every fight on this card, but this is the one that really stands out for me.
Yan had a weird route to the title and hasn’t beaten a Top 5 bantamweight yet, while Sterling has been on a tear over his last five and has the kind of grappling acumen that many believe will give the champion fits and result in the title changing hands.
I am not one of those people.
Yes, Sterling is an outstanding grappler and I fully anticipate he will try to close the distance and initiate a takedown right out of the chute, just as he did with Cory Sandhagen. He might even be successful and put Yan on the defensive early. But if he’s not able to put the champion away in the initial stages, I think we’ll see this one get away from him and become a one-sided affair.
The reason so many people think Sterling will be able to out-grapple Yan is because we haven’t really seen Yan be forced to wrestle much at all since arriving in the UFC. Some of that is because he hasn’t faced a wrestler, some of that is because he’s so good at dictating the terms of engagement, and some of it still is because in those few grappling interactions we’ve seen, Yan has shown a strong ability to defend takedowns, work out of the clinch, and get back into space.
He’s also shown that he can take one to land one and that he gets better as the fight goes on, turning up his pace, persistence, and intensity with each passing round. His title win over Jose Aldo began as a close fight and became a drubbing, and I think that is similar to what we’ll see here unless Sterling can get the champion out of there quickly.
Just as I feel like Adesanya will have his “Holy Shit!” moment on Saturday night, I believe Yan will have a comparable type of performance, answering he lingering questions that remain about his game and leaving people wondering if the Russian titleholder is set to begin a lengthy reign over the bantamweight division.
Prediction: Petr Yan by unanimous decision
Islam Makhachev vs. Drew Dober
This is one of those fights where I think I know how it will play out and what we’re going to see, but until I actually see it happen, I’m not confident that it is going to happen. D’you know what I mean?
Dober’s three-fight winning streak has been impressive and I think he’s made genuine, sustainable, appreciative improvements since hooking up with the Elevation Fight Team crew. I think he’s a tough out for a ton of people in the lightweight division and someone that should continue to get quality assignments like this going forward.
But I think Makhachev is on a different level.
Other than getting caught by Adriano Martins — I was there, it was nasty — this guy has been perfect and I think he’s still just scratching the surface. While I won’t go as far as to call him “the next Khabib” because I think too highly of Khabib and hate putting that kind of pressure on another fighter, I do think he has a many of the same weapons and options as his long-time training partner and we’ll start seeing more of that now that he’s beginning to work his way up the rankings.
As good as Dober has been, he still lost — and lost rather handily — against Beneil Dariush not that long ago. Dariush is a different level of talent, and I think Makhachev is on that same level, if not even better than the streaking Dariush.
I anticipate a wrestling-heavy approach — Father’s Plan in action — and a convincing victory for Makhachev on the scorecards.
Prediction: Islam Makhachev by unanimous decision
Thiago Santos vs. Aleksandar Rakic
I want to pick Aleksandar Rakic because I think he’s a very skilled, very promising fighter and he should be unbeaten in the UFC and I’ve really enjoyed speaking with him and chronicling his rise over the last couple years.
I want to pick Rakic because I want to see more new names enter the championship mix in the light heavyweight division and I believe he’s capable of being a contender in the very near future.
I want to pick Rakic, but I can’t because if Thiago Santos was fighting anyone other than “The Unkillable” Glover Teixeira last time out, the Brazilian powerhouse is coming off an impressive stoppage win after an extended stint on the sidelines recovering from multiple knee surgeries and geeking out about how good he looked and how he holds a stoppage win over the current champion.
But because Teixeira did what Teixeira does, a lot of people are acting like Santos has somehow fallen off and this is going to be Rakic’s coming out party. That might be the case, but I have this feeling in the pit of my stomach that has me leaning towards “Marreta” blasting the Austrian upstart with one of those sledgehammer kicks and a flurry of punches to secure the emphatic stoppage win.
Prediction: Thiago Santos by TKO
Preliminary Card Picks
Dominick Cruz def. Casey Kenney
Kyler Phillips def. Song Yadong
Askar Askarov def. Joseph Benavidez
Kai Kara France def. Rogerio Bontorin
Tim Elliott def. Jordan Espinosa
Kennedy Nzechukwu def. Carlos Ulberg
Sean Brady def. Jake Matthews
Livinha Souza def. Amanda Lemos
Uros Medic def. Aalon Cruz
Mario Bautista def. Trevin Jones
2021 Punch Drunk Prediction Record: 40-37-1 (.513)