Punch Drunk Predictions for UFC Vegas 20
Will it be "Bigi Boy" or "Bon Gamin" on Saturday night at the UFC Apex?
I’m going to be straight with you: it’s been a rough start to the 2021 fight-picking campaign.
Through the first six UFC events of the year, I’m one fight to the good — ONE! — and have had just two events where I’ve been above .500 on the night, plus I split a dozen picks on the Overeem-Volkov card.
As I’ve said before, the fact that I’m struggling right now doesn’t fully bum me out because there have been a ton of ultra-competitive fights taking place over the first eight weeks of the year and I value watching entertaining fights above correctly forecasting how a bunch of squash matches are going to play out.
But it also bums me out a little because do you really think I want to be hovering around .500 for very much longer? Not only do I want to start posting some winning evenings, I wouldn’t mind a little hot streak that brings me closer to .600 or at least makes falling below .500 less of a realistic possibility.
Of course, the UFC isn’t doing me any favors because this weekend features another collection of “I could legit seeing this playing out several different ways” matchups that mean no possible final tally is out of the question.
11-0? It could happen.
0-11? That could happen too, though it’s slightly less likely… I think.
Once more unto the breach, dear friends; once more.
Here are the UFC Vegas 20 Punch Drunk Predictions
Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs. Ciryl Gane
In the third heavyweight main event of the month, once-beaten Jairzinho Rozenstruik squares off with undefeated Ciryl Gane in a battle to determine who will be the No. 1 contender amongst current active UFC heavyweights.
Sure, they’ll be waiting behind Jon “Big Bones” Jones as the former light heavyweight ruler finally moves up a division after transforming his body into an amalgamation of his two football-playing brothers, but they’ll be right there waiting in case something goes sideways with the next championship pairing and ready to throw down with another Top 5 opponent if the UFC wants to see them stay busy.
There are three points that have shaped my decision-making process when it comes to this fight:
1) Rozenstruik got outworked and outclassed by Alistair Overeem for 24 minutes and change before he connected on a last second bomb that brought the fight to a halt.
2) Should that really have been a stoppage though? Rozenstruik walked off like he had left Overeem motionless on the canvas, but “The Reem” was still very much conscious when “Bigi Boy” walked away celebrating and referee Dan Miragliotta belatedly stepped in. There were four seconds left in the contest — you mean to tell me Overeem couldn’t have stood up while Rozenstruik was nowhere near him and avoided having a victory snatched away in the final seconds because his opponent acted like the fight was over?
3) Rozenstruik backed up in a straight line, swinging wildly when he was pressured by Francis Ngannou and “The Predator” eventually put one on his chin and sent him to Dreamland. I get that having that gigantic human wrecking ball swinging sledgehammers at you is a terrifying proposition that makes you do things incorrectly, but it’s something that has stuck in my head because elite heavyweights will test those defensive fundamentals and they looked shaky there.
When you take all that and combine it with Gane being a well-rounded, technical fighter who moves well and has a more complete arsenal than Rozenstruik, I land on the side of “Bon Gamin” continuing his unbeaten run and earning the biggest victory of his career with a stoppage somewhere in the middle three rounds.
Prediction: Ciryl Gane by TKO
Nikita Krylov vs. Magomed Ankalaev
The co-main event takes place in the light heavyweight division, where fan favorite Nikita Krylov (Nicky Thrills to those in the know) takes on Magomed Ankalaev.
This is a really important matchup for both men as the work to establish their position in the pecking order in the intriguing and somewhat open 205-pound weight class. Krylov has struggled to score the big victory that would transform him into a fringe contender (though he did out-hustle Johnny Walker last time out), while Ankalaev has dispatched a bunch of middle-tier or lower talents since losing his debut against Paul Craig at literally the last second.
As much as I still think Krylov can carve out a nice career for himself as someone who lives in the 7-12 range in the division for the next five or six years, I believe this is a bad matchup for him and one where Ankalaev will show he’s just a more complete, more sophisticated fighter than his Ukrainian counterpart.
Ankalaev mixes everything up nicely and that variety should force Krylov to be a little hesitant out of the gate, which will only create more opportunities for Ankalaev to attack. Another finished triggered by a thunderous kick feels like the most likely way this one ends.
Prediction: Magomed Ankalaev by TKO
Montana De La Rosa vs. Mayra Bueno Silva
I honestly think this one is pretty straightforward, which could turn into one of those lines that comes back to bite me in the ass late in Saturday night’s fight card or that shows I’m not a total dipshit when it comes to diagnosing how things could play out in the Octagon.
Although Mayra Bueno Silva will be giving up an inch in height and a couple inches in reach against Montana De La Rosa, I believe she’s the more aggressive fighter and the better grappler and that will serve her well this weekend.
In terms of raw talent and the tools she has to work with, I think De La Rosa has the foundational pieces to be a very good fighter, but it just seems like she’s missing a little something in terms of ferocity. She strikes me as the kind of person who is just happy to be on the court and moving around at the random Tuesday night basketball games in the LDS church, which is perfectly acceptable and fine, except there are also folks there who take that shit seriously and want to destroy you and the four clowns you call teammates.
If she can ever tap into that killer instinct and heightened aggression, she could be a real interesting name in the flyweight division, but since it hasn’t really been present thus far, I have a feeling that Silva will close the distance, initiate a grappling exchange, and control things on the ground until De La Rosa gives her an opponent to secure the finish.
Like I said, this is one where I could end up being completely wrong, but we’ll see.
Prediction: Mayra Bueno Silva by submission
Pedro Munhoz vs. Jimmie Rivera
This is easily my favorite fight on the card because I know exactly what I’m going to get out of these two, and not just because we’ve seen this fight before. Pedro Munhoz and Jimmie Rivera are each consistently entertaining, tough-nosed fixtures in the bantamweight Top 10 and individually, they always deliver the good. Put them together and a thoroughly entertaining scrap is almost a sure thing.
Given that I thought Munhoz beat Frankie Edgar last year, I’m siding with “The Young Punisher” here.
As much as I respect Rivera’s toughness and willingness to stand in the pocket and swing, Munhoz has a little more pop and is a little less cautious than he was the first time they shared the cage back in 2015 and I think those shifts will serve him well here. He’s going to take him lumps like he always does, but over 15 hard-fought minutes, I believe he’ll land the more impactful blows and connect at a great clip, earning the victory to draw level in their personal series.
Prediction: Pedro Munhoz by unanimous decision
Angela Hill vs. Ashley Yoder
This fight between Angela Hill and Ashley Yoder came together last minute, but it’s a massive fight for both women nonetheless.
For Hill, this is an opportunity to get back into the win column following a pair of frustrating split decision losses and to potentially make a statement. She’s been very vocal about how her last two fights were scored and was trying to entice Tecia Torres to run things back before this fight was booked, and now it’s time to back up all the stuff she’s been saying with some action inside the Octagon. As for Yoder, it’s a chance to upset a ranked opponent and earn a second consecutive victory inside the Octagon, which would push her to 4-2 in her last six.
While I think there will be at least one tense moment where Yoder attacks in a grappling exchange and everyone wonders for a minute if Hill is going to get beat, “Overkill” is the more experienced, more polished fighter and should pick Yoder apart on the feet en route to victory.
Prediction: Angela Hill by unanimous decision
Alex Caceres vs. Kevin Croom
As someone that admitted yesterday to being unable to quit Alex Caceres, this fight with Kevin Croom feels like a trap, as Caceres has been known to flake out in the past and Croom is a seasoned, savvy regional veteran who made quick work of Roosevelt Roberts in his short-notice debut before the result was overturned because “The Hard Hitting Hillbilly” popped for weed in his post-fight drug screening.
Roberts has a little bit of Caceres in him and Croom brought nunchucks with him to his media availability earlier this week, neither of which should have any real impact on the fight, but are still kind of stuck in my head as things I need to consider when making this pick.
Nervous as I am, I’m siding with Caceres.
If he fights the way he has over his last three appearances, he wins going away because he’s been smart, efficient, and effective. If he gets a little too playful, a little too cute, Croom could snatch up that neck and make me shake my head in unsurprising disappointment.
I’m hoping for the former, but in no way discounting that the latter could happen as well.
Prediction: Alex Caceres by submission
Preliminary Card Picks
Alexander Hernandez def. Thiago Moises
Sabina Mazo def. Alexis Davis
Vince Cachero def. Ronnie Lawrence
Dustin Jacoby def. Maxim Grishin
2021 PDP Record: 35-34-0 (.507)