Punch Drunk Predictions: UFC 257 Edition

After evening out thanks to the Wednesday slate, it's time to start pushing towards my goals

Can you feel it — that little tingle running down your spine that comes with a big fight card?

Saturday night, the UFC kicks off its 2021 pay-per-view slate with a crackerjack of a card from Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi capped by a pair of critical lightweight matchups, as Dan Hooker welcomes Michael Chandler to the Octagon for the first time in the co-main event, and Dustin Poirier and Conor McGregor run it back in the finale.

From start-to-finish, UFC 257 is stacked with exciting, competitive bouts that make picking winners a challenge, but that’s what makes this venture interesting to me.

I don’t know how these bouts are going to play out, but I’d rather take a stab at solving some difficult riddles and be wrong than roll through a whole bunch of one-sided affairs where the outcomes seem pre-ordained.

Additionally, as Alessio Di Chirico reminded everyone last weekend, there are no guarantees in this game, so even the layups are going to bounce out every once in a while.

Back at .500 after an 8-6 day on Wednesday, this is where I start my climb to .700… or tumble further away; one or the other.

Here we go.

These are the UFC 257 Punch Drunk Predictions.

Dustin Poirier vs. Conor McGregor

There are some fighters who are just stylistic nightmares for others, and I think Conor McGregor might be that guy for Dustin Poirier.

As much as Poirier has made serious improvements inside the Octagon since their first meeting, McGregor’s range management, defensive wrestling, and precision striking remain elite and continue to be major problems for everyone that shares the cage with the original “Champ-Champ,” save for Khabib Nurmagomedov, who may very well be a fighting cyborg sent from the future to rule us all.

In Poirier’s best performances, he’s been the better striker — more precise, more accurate, more varied — and while I think he can hang with McGregor out of the gate, especially if he utilizes low kicks, I’m not sure he can survive the first 10 minutes of going shot-for-shot with the Irish standout.

As much as some people like to diminish his abilities and undersell his talent because he’s so popular, McGregor is an absolutely phenomenal fighter with excellent striking, and he’s more than capable of getting Poirier out of there before “The Diamond” can really start making hay as McGregor slows.

It’s going to last longer than the first fight, but I think the end result is the same.

Prediction: Conor McGregor by TKO

Dan Hooker vs. Michael Chandler

I love this fight so much, and part of the reason is that it really is one of those fights that could play out in any number of ways.

I could see Chandler coming in and beating Hooker using a combination of wrestling and striking, changing levels when things get a little hot on the feet, and working inside when “The Hangman” gets back to his feet. I could see Hooker picking apart the former Bellator champion at range, using his reach advantage and the adjustments he’d made after a pair of challenging, punishing instant classics last year. I could see an absolute war.

My thinking is that we get elements of all three — a few periods where they bomb on each other; a few points where Chandler puts Hooker on the canvas with his wrestling; a few instances where Hooker is a sniper and picks Chandler apart.

Of the three, I think Hooker out-striking Chandler and winning a battle on the feet is the most likely — his takedown defence is solid, especially when he’s firing that knee up the middle, and he’s a marksman on the feet. While Chandler can pop too, he’s slightly undersized and less of a power hitter than some of the dudes Hooker has been in there with recently, and I think that leads to a clean decision win for the New Zealander.

Prediction: Dan Hooker by unanimous decision

Jessica Eye vs. Joanne Calderwood

A lot of people seem to actively dislike — or at least root against — Jessica Eye. Admittedly, she can be a bit of a try-hard at times, but we’ve all been try-hards at some point, for some reason, and that doesn't have any impact on her ability as a fighter.

And as a fighter, she’s pretty good, even if people don’t want to acknowledge that.

Eye was sluggish and inactive last time out against Cynthia Calvillo, but I’m betting that remedying her medical / health issues will help straighten her out. Calderwood hasn’t been particularly strong in fights carrying elevated pressure or stakes over the course of her career, and I think that Eye is better equipped to rise above the noise here and have a strong performance.

Prediction: Jessica Eye by unanimous decision

Arman Tsarukyan vs. Matt Frevola

The hastily put together pairing between Tsarukyan and Frevola will be an interesting test for each lightweight, as Frevola is a grittier, grimier dance partner for Tsarukyan than Nasrat Haqparast, while he’s a far more technical fighter than “The SteamRolla” was initially set to face in Ottman Azaitar.

Zero prep on either side means you have to roll with the fighter you think has the most singularly dominant or effective skill, and for me, that’s Tsarukyan and his wrestling.

Frevola isn’t an easy out, but I’m fairly confident the young Armenian will grapple his way to victory.

Prediction: Arman Tsarukyan by unanimous decision

Marina Rodriguez vs. Amanda Ribas

I thought Rodriguez deserved the nod in her fight with Carla Esparza — damage over position — and believe she’s one of the better fighters in the division; a durable, tough out with excellent striking and tenacity.

But I think Ribas has superstar potential.

The key to me when it comes to grapplers is their ability to dictate where fights take place and then control position, and Ribas has shown she’s capable of doing both, in part because of her judo background, but also because she’s a pretty solid athlete too.

I anticipate Ribas timing a takedown early, putting Rodriguez on the canvas and methodically searching for a submission while doing a better job of avoiding the elbows that cut up Esparza. I’m not sure she finds one and it won’t be an easy battle, but I see Ribas collecting a fifth straight victory and earning a Top 5 assignment next time out.

Prediction: Amanda Ribas by unanimous decision

Preliminary Card Picks

Antonio Carlos Junior def. Brad Tavares
Julianna Pena def. Sara McMann
Khalil Rountree Jr. def. Marcin Prachnio
Andrew Sanchez def. Makhmud Muradov
Movsar Evloev def. Nik Lentz
Amir Albazi def. Zhalgas Zhumagulov

2021 PDP Record: 12-12-0 (.500)