Punch Drunk Predictions: UFC 258
Who will walk away with the welterweight title — Kamaru Usman or Gilbert Burns?
You know you’re having a rough start to the fight-picking year when you go .500 and think, “That’s better,” but that’s exactly where I’m at right now.
A 6-6 performance on last weekend’s first Las Vegas card of the year brought me ever so slightly closer to even for the year and I’m hopeful that the minor turnaround last week leads to a major swing in the right direction this week as we dive into the slate at UFC 258.
I know it’s not a great pay-per-view card, however there are still a bunch of things I like, competitive matchups, and quality fighters slated to hit the Octagon on Saturday and I’m genuinely excited to see how everything shakes out… but I’m weird that way.
Here’s what I see transpiring on the main card and my selections for the prelims.
These are the UFC 258 Punch Drunk Predictions.
Please enjoy responsibly.
Kamaru Usman vs. Gilbert Burns
UFC Welterweight Championship Fight
I adore this fight.
I think these two are very well-matched, I love the “teammates facing off” element to it because that familiarity with one another is an interesting wrinkle we don’t see play out in the Octagon all that often, and Burns just might be the best fighter in the division at the moment other than Usman, which is saying something because welterweight has some quality talent at the top end.
I can honestly say that I can see this fight playing out in myriad different ways with either man winning; no outcome would surprise me on Saturday night.
But I’m siding with Usman.
Burns may be the more dynamic of the two and have the greater finishing abilities, but Usman has a way of shutting people down and suffocating them that is difficult to deal with an unlike anything the Brazilian challenger has been faced with inside the cage during his ascent to this championship matchup. Sure, he’s done rounds in the gym with Usman and maybe he even got the better of them on a regular basis, but this isn’t the training, and I believe Usman is one of those fighters that elevates his game when the lights come on and we’ll see that on Saturday night.
I also don’t want to downplay the potential influence of Trevor Wittman in the champion’s corner.
I know it’s only been a couple of camps that they’ve worked together, but Wittman is a brilliant tactician and tremendous in-fight coach and I don’t think Usman chose to work with him randomly. This feels like a situation where an already elite fighter could have just levelled up because he’s added a sharp mind into his corner, and I’m really curious to see if that plays out this weekend.
As for how things transpire once the action gets underway, I feel like we’re going to see a lot of Usman controlling things in the clinch, doing grimy work against the cage, and just dragging the life out of Burns minute-by-minute, round-by-round. Playing with him in space is risky, and messing around on the ground with him presents dangerous potential as well, but snugged up along the fence, beating up his thighs with knees, landing short punches and elbows, dumping him to the mat on occasion — that feels like the winning recipe.
Prediction: Kamaru Usman by unanimous decision
Maycee Barber vs. Alexa Grasso
This one is intriguing to me because Barber has a little more pop and a little more grit to her game, but Grasso is the cleaner, more polished striker.
The thing I can’t get out of my head as I try to think about how this one plays out is that Roxanne Modafferi’s herky-jerky, rudimentary striking was giving Barber fits in the early striking exchanges during their meeting last year, and that was before she jacked up her knee.
Grasso has some defensive flaws in the striking department — she keeps her head on the center line too much — but she also has solid quickness, good footwork, and clean striking technique, which, honestly, could be all that it takes to beat Barber at this stage, especially when she hasn’t fought in over a year.
Now, Barber could come out and have made some key improvements or adjustments, tightened a couple things up, and taken a step forward, but after how things went on the feet against Modafferi last year and how solid Grasso looked in her flyweight debut, I’m siding with the more experienced, more technical fighter here.
Prediction: Alexa Grasso by unanimous decision
Kelvin Gastelum vs. Ian Heinisch
While this looks like fighters headed in different directions on paper — Gastelum entering on a three-fight slide, Heinisch arriving off a 74-second knockout win — it feels like a classic “you have to look beyond just the results” situation to me.
Gastelum has struggled over the last two years in terms of his results, no doubt, but those losses came in a close, competitive interim title fight against Israel Adesanya, a split decision setback to Darren Till, and a first-round submission loss to Jack Hermansson, who was stationed in the Top 5 at the time. Heinisch, conversely, clobbered Gerald Meerschaert.
Heinisch has been a ranked fighter with upward ambitions before and it resulted in consecutive defeats at the hands of Derek Brunson and Omari Akhmedov, so I’m curious to see what lessons he learned from those outings, if any, and whether he can step it up against a fighter in dire need of a win on Saturday.
Despite his recent poor results, I can’t bring myself to pick against Gastelum because I believe the deck is stacked in his favor. He’s the better wrestler and has the more diverse offensive repertoire, plus he’s got a great chin and all the motivation in the world to go out and have a good performance.
I think we see something closer to the guy that was 2-2 with Adesanya heading into the fifth than the guy who looked completely flummoxed against Hermansson last summer, and the former TUF winner gets back into the win column.
Prediction: Kelvin Gastelum by unanimous decision
Maki Pitolo vs. Julian Marquez
This one is tough because Marquez has been out of action for well over two years and it’s difficult to know what to expect from a fighter when they’ve been sidelined and dealing with injuries for such a prolonged period of time.
On top of that, he dropped a split decision, so it’s not like there is a wealth of positive results to pull from that get you real excited about his prospects upon his return.
Pitolo has struggled in his last two outings, first walking into a guillotine choke loss against Darren Stewart, and then hustling back into the Octagon three weeks later and losing a listless performance to Impa Kasanganay, which dropped his record to 1-3 inside the Octagon.
The Hawaiian’s best shot is to come out quickly and try to swarm Marquez, using his speed advantage to try and light him up before the burly Las Vegas native gets his legs under him again, but if that doesn’t happen, it could be a long night for Pitolo.
Marquez is “just a guy” to me right now, but I do think he’s just a little bit better than Pitolo when it comes to the entirety of his skill set and his upside in the division. I believe it’ll take him a couple minutes, maybe even the first round, to shake off the rust and get into a rhythm, but once he gets there, I expect he’ll be able to grind out a win.
Prediction: Julian Marquez by unanimous decision
Bobby Green vs. Jim Miller
Veteran lightweights clash in what should be a fun kickoff to the main card as both Green and Miller look to rebound from losses in their most recent appearances.
This one is tricky because there are a lot of things that Green does well — crisp boxer, underrated grappler and wrestler — that have proven to give Miller struggles in recent outings, but he can also be too willing to let his opponents lead and play around in there, and Miller isn’t someone you want to mess around with in the Octagon.
I have a feeling this one plays out a lot like Miller’s fight against Scott Holtzman, where he’s just not able to close the distance enough to turn it into a grappling match, nor is he able to land enough on the feet to get the better of the exchanges.
Green is the livelier fighter at this point and has been facing slightly better competition, and I expect that to be on display this weekend.
Prediction: Bobby Green by unanimous decision
Preliminary Card Picks
Rodolfo Vieira def. Anthony Hernandez
Belal Muhammad def. Dhiego Lima
Mallory Martin def. Polyana Viana
Chris Gutierrez def. Andre Ewell
Ricky Simon def. Brian Kelleher
Gabriel Green def. Philip Rowe
Miranda Maverick def. Gillian Robertson
2021 PDP Record: 22-25-0 (.468)