Will Stipe Miocic earn a second consecutive victory over Francis Ngannou, further cementing his status as the greatest UFC heavyweight of all time and establishing himself as an MMA immortal?
Can Francis Ngannou avenge his earlier loss to the reigning heavyweight champion, securing the victory that eluded him in Boston at UFC 220, ascending to the top of the division he’s long been projected to rule?
Those are the two questions that are at odds with each other as we head into fight night tomorrow evening in Las Vegas, where these two familiar foes run it back in the main event of UFC 260 with the UFC heavyweight title hanging in the balance.
There are subplots and secondary storylines that are compelling — the looming arrival of Jon Jones, Tyron Woodley looking to avoid a fourth consecutive loss, a host of solid prospects getting a bigger chance to show out — but the main focus is on the main event (as it should be) and the fact that we’re one more sleep away from seeing “Miocic vs. Ngannou II” has got me all kinds of fired up.
Additionally — and this is self-serving, but you know, it’s my blog — it seems I’ve shaken out of that early season funk that had me questioning my sanity and selection skills to start the year, posting an 8-2 mark last week, and a 24-12, 2 NC (.632) record record for the month of February.
So without any further ado, here are the UFC 260 Punch Drunk Predictions.
(all photos by Jeff Bottari courtesy of Zuffa LLC)
Stipe Miocic vs. Francis Ngannou
I feel like people want to read any pick against the reigning champ as disrespectful of what Miocic brings to the table or ignoring what transpired the first time around, but it’s doesn’t actually have to be either (or both) of those things; it can simply be a numbers game, as in, do you think Miocic can avoid getting hit with one of those Ngannou concussion grenades while trying to close the distance and wrestle?
He did an admirable job with it the first time around, getting into the challenger’s hips, getting him to the ground, and neutralizing his power, and he’s more than capable of doing it again.
But Ngannou has also shown better command of his weapons over his last four fights, exhibiting greater patience, a greater understanding of when to attack and how to attack, and the same ferocious power that has always made him a massive threat to anyone standing across from him. Outside of his forward onslaught against Jairzinho Rozenstruik, he’s been more technical with his strikes, waiting for openings to present themselves, rather than chasing opportunities that aren’t there like he did in the first meeting with Miocic.
And that to me is the difference in this fight.
As great as Miocic is — and he is rightfully regarded as the best heavyweight in UFC history and he’s shown tremendous growth and development in his own right — that freakish power Ngannou possesses, combined with improved fundamentals, increased understanding of situations, and his rare brand of athleticism leads me to believe we see a new champion crowned on Saturday night.
Prediction: Francis Ngannou by TKO
Tyron Woodley vs. Vicente Luque
Tyron Woodley’s last two fights are a perfect example of the “move them further back in the deck” theory I’ve talked about a couple times here over the last month when assessing matchmaking and rankings and how things get stagnant in a given division.
After losing the belt to Kamaru Usman, he was out for more than a year and then fought the surging Gilbert Burns, who clipped him early and shut him out across five rounds. Less than four months later, he faced Colby Covington, who hadn’t fought since challenging for the title at the end of 2019, and got wiped out again, sending him into Saturday’s meeting with Vicente Luque on a three-fight slide as tons of people question whether this will be his final appearance inside the Octagon.
I can’t help but wonder how differently things may have played out if instead of facing a murderer’s row of competition, Woodley actually got a chance to potentially reset with a fight against the No. 11 guy in the division or the No. 14 guy in the division or an unranked, but talented competitor looking to make a real jump into contention.
As it stands, I think Woodley’s confidence is shot and despite saying all the right things heading into this one, I believe Luque will hand him a fourth straight loss, leaving “The Chosen One” to question what comes next.
While Luque isn’t going to grind on Woodley the way Usman, Burns, and Covington have over his last three fights, the Brazilian remains a miserable matchup for the former titleholder (and plenty of others) because he’s an in-your-face action fighter that isn’t worried about getting taken down because he’s also super-slick off his back and real good at locking up chokes if you leave your neck exposed for a fraction too long.
Even when things were going well for Woodley, he had a tendency to back himself into the fence and look to counter, and if he does that here, Luque could very well suffocate him with pace and pressure and an endless string of punches and knees and elbows that once again leave the former champion shell-shocked.
Maybe Woodley has actually made real changes, real adjustments that allow him to return to his championship form, but at this stage, he has to prove that’s true before I’m willing to believe it.
Prediction: Vicente Luque by TKO
Sean O’Malley vs. Thomas Almeida
I don’t mean to be disrespectful or flippant, but I think it’s cute that anyone thinks Thomas Almeida has the potential to come out here and whip on Sean O’Malley. He’s lost three straight and four of his last five, and while I was a huge believer in the young man when he was on the come up and I dubbed him “The Brazilian Prince of Violence,” those days are long gone and there are only two real outcomes here:
1) O’Malley smashes Almeida
2) O’Malley’s body gives out in some way that results in Almeida getting the win
You may think I’m joking with No. 2 but he’s been unable to walk out of the Octagon under his own power in 40% of his fights (small sample size, I know) and you best believe that Almeida will come out targeting that lower leg hoping to replicate the success “Chito” Vera had last time out.
And look, me saying his body gives out isn’t meant to take away from Vera’s efforts either — he threw and landed the kicks that either caused or exacerbated whatever issues O’Malley was having with his foot / ankle and deserves full credit for the win. That said, I also think there is an element to this where we have to wonder if “Suga Sean” has a little of that Dominick Cruz thing going on where his body — and in particular, his lower extremities — are going to constantly rebel against him, limiting what he can do inside the Octagon?
With all of that set forth, I think we get Ending No. 1 without any real issue on Saturday night.
When he’s right, O’Malley is a devastatingly sharp striker with tremendous speed, accuracy, and precision, and combined with the fact that Almeida has always been extremely hittable, it should result in another sniper-like finish for the flamboyant bantamweight from Montana.
Prediction: Sean O’Malley by TKO
Gillian Robertson vs. Miranda Maverick
This is the most challenging fight to dissect on the main card for me because every time I think I have Robertson figured out, she zigs when I thought she was going to zag and I have to recalibrate my opinions and ideas about where she fits in the division. On top of that, I’m exceptionally high on Maverick as a prospect, but this is also a solid step up in competition after having moments where she struggled initially in her promotional debut.
I think this is going to be one of those fights where we see the difference between a tough, game fighter with a sharp top game (Robertson) and an athletic, fluid fighter with a more complete arsenal (Maverick) and how the latter has a significant advantage.
There is no quit in Robertson, but she’s one of those competitors that needs things going in her favor, especially early, in order to have success, where as Maverick has shown a greater ability to adjust on the fly and have success in different phases. She’s the more dynamic talent, the more fluid athlete and I think those things will outweigh Robertson’s edge in UFC experience, resulting in a second straight impressive outing for the 23-year-old PhD student at Old Dominion University.
Prediction: Miranda Maverick by TKO
Jamie Mullarky vs. Khama Worthy
This is one of those weird matchups where everything points towards Worthy getting back into the win column and Mullarky catching a third consecutive loss, but there is that little sliver of doubt that you have to consider because so many of Worthy’s losses have been of the flash knockout variety.
While I acknowledge the potential of Mullarky catching Worthy with something sharp that leads him to victory, the more likely outcome is the Pittsburgh-based veteran getting the better of things and finding a finish of his own.
Worthy has simply faced much better competition throughout his career and during their equally brief UFC tenures for me to pick against him at this point, especially considering he earned stoppage victories in his first two showings, where the Australian landed on the wrong side of one-sided decisions.
Mullarky profiles as a solid regional fighter who can grind out a good living as the best guy in his local area, whereas Worthy has already proven he belongs at this level, and will do so again on Saturday.
Prediction: Khama Worthy by TKO
Preliminary Card Picks
Alonzo Menifield def. Fabio Cherant
Jared Gooden def. Abubakar Nurmagomedov
Modestas Bukauskas def. Michal Oleksiejczuk
Omar Morales def. Shane Young
Abu Azaitar def. Marc-Andre Barriault
2021 PDP Record: 64-49-1, 2 NC (.552)
Enjoy the fights!