Punch Drunk Predictions: UFC 261
Will the champions at the start of the night be the champions once the dust settles?
In the immortal words of Frank “The Tank” Ricard, “We’re going streaking!”
While the force of nature in Old School was talking about getting down to his birthday suit and running through the quad, I’m talking about a hot streak with these here predictions because over the last four events, your favorite Western Canadian writer friend has gone 30/43 with his selections, good for a .698 winning percentage, which is just a couple ticks shy of the target mark for the year.
Now, four weeks isn’t the same as an entire year and this quality run comes after a rugged start to the 2021 campaign, so believe me, I know things can go sideways in a hurry and will continue to heed my mom’s favorite bit of advice: “Don’t get too high with the highs or too low with the lows.”
As a fan, I love this weekend’s lineup — the main card is stacked with terrific fights, and the prelims offer some intrigue, especially with the debuting Chinese triumvirate — and from a prediction standpoint, I think it’s another week to keep cranking out positive numbers and bring the overall totals for the year closer to where I’d like them to be when it’s all said and done.
There is plenty to unpack, so let’s get to it.
These are the UFC 261 Punch Drunk Predictions.
Please enjoy responsibly.
Kamaru Usman vs. Jorge Masvidal
I know the Masvidal acolytes want to believe that a full training camp is going to dramatically alter how things play out in the rematch, but I just don’t see it.
As much as conditioning played a factor the first time around, the stylistic complexion of this matchup is the real problem for Masvidal because over 25 minutes, I don’t see him being able to keep Usman from wrestling him enough to win this one in space. Even if he doesn’t get taken down and roughed up on the ground a ton, I still envision this one being similar to their first encounter, with Usman closing the distance and forcing the Miami native to carry his weight, battle out of the clinch, and deal with constant, unrelenting pressure.
Can Masvidal land something sneaky and sharp that ends the fight? Of course, and we saw Usman get stung early in his fight with Gilbert Burns, so we know he can get hit and hurt.
But the pace and style of fight Usman can impose on Masvidal is the perfect recipe for tiring out the challenger, leaving him with diminished weapons and a diminished spirit as the rounds progress.
And once he gets “Gamebred” annoyed and accepting defeat, I think Usman will take him down and secure the finish.
And still.
Prediction: Kamaru Usman by TKO
Zhang Weili vs. Rose Namajunas
The more I think about this fight, the more Round 3 of Namajunas’ second bout with Jessica Andrade sticks in my head.
If you’ll recall, Namajunas looked crisp to begin that fight, controlling the action with her jab and her footwork, replicating her start from their first fight and sprinting out to an early lead on the scorecards. In the third, however, Andrade rallied back, having a ton of success with his own punches as Namajunas began to fade.
When the fight ended, Andrade was in complete control and Namajunas was hanging on for dear life. If it were a five-round fight, I believe the Brazilian would have ended it in the fourth. Instead, Namajunas earned a split decision victory to secure this championship opportunity, but I think we’ll see something similar here.
From a technical standpoint, Namajunas is outstanding, and she should have success early against Zhang, who takes too many punches for my liking, but is such a goddamn tank that it doesn’t seem to matter.
But as the fight goes on and the champion’s pressure and output do not let up, I believe Zhang will really start to distance herself from Namajunas, picking her apart with power shots and smothering volume until the referee is forced to step in and halt the fight.
And still.
Prediction: Zhang Weili by TKO
Valentina Shevchenko vs. Jessica Andrade
I actually think this fight is closer than most other people and feel that if any title is going to change hands on Saturday night, this is the one.
Andrade fights with a “Devil May Care” attitude, pressing forward no matter what, launching soul-crushers every time she cocks back and fires, and if she gets Shevchenko hurt, the diminutive Brazilian wrecking machine will not stop throwing until the referee waves it off.
I can totally see the challenger landing a rib-roaster in the midst of a back-and-forth exchange that buckles Shevchenko or even Andrade elevating the champion for one of her trademark slams, which are disorienting and devastating.
All of that being said, I think the most likely outcome is Shevchenko retaining her title with another sound, smart, technical victory on the feet.
The blueprint is already there for how to beat the hyper-aggressive Andrade if you’re a counter-fighter with a reach advantage — keep her outside, keep moving, and force her to chase, limiting her ability to land anything hefty, just like Joanna Jedrzejczyk did at UFC 211.
Shevchenko is a sharp tactician and as fundamentally sound as they come, so it wouldn’t surprise me at all to see her follow that approach from start to finish and coast to another successful title defence.
And still.
Prediction: Valentina Shevchenko by unanimous decision
Uriah Hall vs. Chris Weidman
I’m genuinely shocked that Hall is the underdog in this one because as much as Weidman got back in the win column last time out, it was 1-1 heading into the third and we’re only one fight removed from the former middleweight champion having been knocked out in back-to-back outings.
On top of that, Hall has never looked better, entering Saturday’s contest on a three-fight winning streak and brimming with confidence.
Weidman certainly has the edge in the grappling department and should be selling out to get inside and get this to the ground, but if I know that, Hall knows that, and “Prime Time” is just too quick, too powerful, too explosive for the Long Island native to contend with at this stage of his career.
As focused and healthy and ready to go as Weidman looks right now, I honestly think this one could end in sudden, violent fashion and rekindle the “should Weidman hang’em up” conversations everyone was having before he beat Omari Akhmedov last year.
Prediction: Uriah Hall by TKO
Anthony Smith vs. Jimmy Crute
I love me a good “Veteran vs. Prospect” matchup and I think this is the perfect step up for Crute at this time after consecutive first-round stoppage wins last year.
But just because I think it’s the fight he needs at this moment doesn’t mean I think he’s going to win.
Look man: Anthony Smith isn’t the inconsistent dude he was in the early stages of his career; he’s a legitimate Top 5 light heavyweight who only loses to other legitimate Top 5 light heavyweights, and while I think Crute has the potential to get there at some point, I don’t think that point is Saturday.
We’re less than two years removed from Crute making some technical mistakes and getting tapped out by Misha Cirkunov, and while Smith isn’t the same type of powerhouse grappler as the Latvian-Canadian judoka, he’s slick on the canvas and more aggressive and effective with his striking as well.
This feels like another “teachable moment” for the 25-year-old Australian, who should have flashes like he does in every fight, but he will ultimately end up on the wrong side of the a crafty, veteran effort from “Lionheart” on Saturday.
Prediction: Anthony Smith by TKO
Preliminary Card Picks
Randy Brown def. Alex Oliveira
Stefan Sekulic def. Dwight Grant
Brendan Allen def. Karl Roberson
Patrick Sabatini def. Tristan Connelly
Danaa Batgerel def. Kevin Natividad
Rongzhu def. Kazula Vargas
Jeffrey Molina def. Aoriqileng
Na Liang def. Ariane Carnelossi
2021 PDP Record: 86-60-1, 2 NC (.577)