Punch Drunk Predictions: UFC 262 Edition
A new lightweight champion will be crowned at the close of the toughest fight card to pick all year.
Part of why I have always wanted to consistently put out a version of the Punch Drunk Predictions and keep a running tally of my results is show how difficult it is to predict fights, and do so by offering complete transparency when it comes to my overall results.
Now, maybe I’m the only one that ventures down these roads who struggles at times because I see an awful lot of self-congratulatory “I called that one right!” tweets on Saturday night, but I rarely see those same folks talking about the different picks and props and wagers they got wrong.
Meanwhile, I’m out here cracking jokes about losing streaks, like the 8-11-1 run I’m on over the last two weeks, and posting the full-year total at the end of each of these weekly offerings because trying to figure out how a fight is going to play out and then actually having it transpire that way is difficult and I want to acknowledge that regularly.
It’s easy to shout about your successes — the upset picks you nail, the underdogs that cash, the night you went perfect with your selections or sure came close — but no one is successful all the time, and I’ve always believed that if you’re going to shout about your successes, you should share you struggles too so that everyone knows it’s not all sunshine and rainbows and winning tickets all the time.
But maybe that’s just me.
Anyway, this weekend’s card is arguably the most competitive collection of fights of the year, so there is a real chance this is the “darkest before the dawn” event in terms of selections… or maybe this is where I come roaring back with a vengeance; we shall see.
This is the UFC 262 edition of the Punch Drunk Predictions.
Charles Oliveira vs. Michael Chandler
Like every fight on this card, the lightweight championship main event is a doozy to dissect because there are so many lingering questions that just can’t be answered with any real confidence right now. We can all do our best to forecast how we think the fight will play out, who will have the advantages where, and which of these two men is in the better position career-wise heading into this weekend’s finale, but all of that is really conjecture for the moment, and we won’t know for sure until the dust settles on Saturday.
Oliveira’s dominant effort against Tony Ferguson comes under scrutiny because “El Cucuy” might just be in decline, while concerns Chandler’s age and recent level of competition get blown up because he clocked Dan Hooker in his debut. Oliveira has been great over his last eight, but he only has one Top 10 win in that stretch, and Chandler looked great in his debut, but it’s hard to know whether he can hang with a dangerous all-rounder like “do Bronx” for 25 minutes after all the battles he’s been through.
Getting answers to these questions is why I love watching fights.
So who am I taking? I’m taking Chandler, and here’s why:
As terrible as this is going to sound, I still think Oliveira has a little bit of a front-runner mentality, in that he does exceptionally well when things are going his way and he’s dictating the terms of engagement, but when someone weathers that storm or takes it to him, he’s a different fighter. We haven't seen it of late because things have been going swimmingly, but Chandler isn’t the type to let the Brazilian come out, get comfortable, and control the exchanges.
I also think the former Bellator standout will be looking to light Oliveira up early, attacking with big strikes out of the chute, including working to the body, which should, in theory, slow him down, take away some of his energy, and perhaps open the door for an early stoppage.
Chandler strikes me as a guy that got a little complacent during his final couple years under the Bellator banner — there was nothing new for him to fight, nothing exciting for him to chase — and moving to the UFC has renewed his passion and ferocity, and we’ll see that on Saturday.
Prediction: Michael Chandler by TKO
Tony Ferguson vs. Beneil Dariush
Screw it — I’m taking Ferguson, against my better judgment.
If I could count on Dariush to fight a strategic, patient fight like the one Oliveira delivered last December, I’d take the Kings MMA representative in a heartbeat, because I think that’s the way to beat Ferguson at this point, but he’s said he’s going to do the opposite, we’ve seen him get drawn into brawls, and I think you can’t out-crazy “El Cucuy,” even if he is in decline.
As great as Dariush has looked at times during his current six-fight winning streak, his best efforts are actually the earlier ones, where he played to his grappling strengths, stayed technical, and methodically dismantled Thiago Moises and Drew Dober. The knockouts of Drakkar Klose and Scott Holtzman got the greater attention, but he was perilously close to getting put away in the former and landed a perfect shot in the latter.
Ferguson was too good for too long for me to believe he’s just lost it all, and in a fight against someone I’ve seen get stopped a couple times who is going to engage on his terms, I’m banking on the mercurial Ultimate Fighter winner dialling it up one more time and getting a stoppage win.
Prediction: Tony Ferguson by TKO
Katlyn Chookagian vs. Viviane Araujo
This feels like a textbook Chookagian victory in the making.
Araujo has done well when she can control the distance and get the better of the striking exchanges, but Chookagian is taller, has a slight reach advantage, and knows how to utilize her length and footwork better than most. When she has been beaten, it’s by athletes that charge inside and never back down — Valentina Shevchenko, Jessica Andrade — and that’s just not who Araujo is as a fighter.
My assumption is we’ll see Chookagian throwing a lot of kicks from range, sticking the jab, and not letting Araujo get into a rhythm, much like what she did to Cynthia Calvillo last time out.
Prediction: Katlyn Chookagian by unanimous decision
Shane Burgos vs. Edson Barboza
This is the one I’ve had the hardest time with this week, because I think both men are terrific talents and I’m genuinely unsure of how this one will play out. I can see two or three different scenarios playing out, but I have about the same amount of conviction about each one being the actual way things go — very little.
The consensus seems to be that Burgos gets it done by staying technical and walking down Barboza, as he’s struggled against under those circumstances in the past, but Burgos isn’t Justin Gaethje. I also wonder how differently people would be talking about Barboza if his janky split decision losses to Paul Felder and Dan Ige were scored accordingly and registered as victories for the Brazilian veteran?
Of the different ways I can see this going, I actually lean towards it being similar to the fight between Neil Magny and Geoff Neal last week, not in execution, but in terms of needing to see Burgos get a win of this magnitude before I can confidently side with him getting it done, especially because he can be a bit of a slow starter at times and Barboza has a chance to get out ahead of him early.
This might be the fight where it happens — and I genuinely wouldn’t be surprised if that were the case — but I believe Barboza is still a legit contender and I need to see Burgos beat a guy like that before I see him the same way.
Prediction: Edson Barboza by unanimous decision
Matt Schnell vs. Rogerio Bontorin
I was picking Schnell from the jump — I thought he looked really great against Tyson Nam, I love that he’s working with Sayif Saud and the team at Fortis MMA, and I believe he’s one of those guys that is finally putting it together and poised to go on a little run.
Then Bontorin missed the bantamweight mark on the scales and it just solidified my faith in picking Schnell even more.
Between struggling with the weight and Schnell being the far more well-rounded fighter, I think we could see a real breakthrough performance from “Danger” in this one.
Prediction: Matt Schnell by TKO
Preliminary Card Picks
Andre Muniz def. Jacare Souza
Lando Vannata def. Mike Grundy
Antonina Shevchenko def. Andrea Lee
Jamie Pickett def. Jordan Wright
Gina Mazany def. Priscila Cachoeira
Kevin Aguilar def. Tucker Lutz
Christos Giagos def. Sean Soriano
2021 PDP Record: 103-75-2, 2 NC (.566)