Punch Drunk Predictions: UFC 263
Adesanya or Vettori? Figueiredo or Moreno? Edwards or Diaz? Who will emerge victorious?
Last weekend, I only selected four winners; it was the fifth time that has happened this year.
In the previous instances, fewer total fights meant that the damage wasn’t that bad, but there were 13 fights last weekend and while one those ended as a No Contest, there were eight more that I was wrong about, and that is not a pleasant feeling.
Now, in my defence, it was a competitive card with more than a couple fights on paper that could have gone either way, but the theme of the night seemed to be going the other way than my selections, though I did still manage to hit on the Montana De La Rosa upset to kick off the main card. As I said after the event ended, the saving grace of my night is that we got pizza from our neighbourhood joint on the corner and it was amazing, as always, which meant the night wasn’t a total disaster.
So here were are, back looking to rebound from an ugly evening of picks with another pay-per-view card, only flush with competitive, compelling matchups, including a pair of championship grudge matches.
We’re getting close to the midway point of the year, and while it will be extremely difficult to get to a .600 winning percentage before the end of the month, I’d at least like to try and get close. (Note: I would need to go 36-4 over the next three shows to get there, so I’m not going to get there.)
Let’s get after it, shall we?
These are the Punch Drunk Predictions for UFC 263
Israel Adesanya vs. Marvin Vettori
A lot of folks don’t appreciate how good Vettori is because he’s not a prolific finisher and instead has been deploying more of a Jon Fitch, grind you into oblivion approach as of late. On top of that, he’s perpetually angry and aggrieved, which is never helpful, and when you add that to the fact he’s facing one of the more popular and charismatic fighters on the roster, it makes for a situation where too many people are giving him little to no chance of beating Adesanya on Saturday and I think that is a mistake.
Vettori is a live dog here because he can wrestle, and because he genuinely believes he is the better man, and that belief is enough to propel him to new heights this weekend. That said, I thin Adesanya knows he needs to make a statement and he’ll rise to the challenge.
Izzy can frame it as people unjustifiably doubting his talents after catching his first MMA loss, but you know he’s feeling it too a little, even though the last time he fought at this weight, he absolutely styled on Paulo Costa. For every great performance, there is a middling effort and for someone who commands the spotlight and carries himself like one of the apex predators in the MMA jungle, Adesanya knows he needs to keep turning in great performances unless he wants folks to really start wondering if the lion is no longer that ferocious.
The key for Adesanya is going to be his ability to make Vettori pay for trying to get inside — he can snipe it him from range and do some cumulative damage, but if he wants to get him out of there, the champion will need to find something in those close quarters situations when the challenger is looking to close the distance and grappler. Vettori has never been finished, so this isn’t an easy task, but if anyone is up for it, my money is on “The Last Stylebender.”
Prediction: Israel Adesanya by TKO
Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Brandon Moreno
I feel like a bit of an asshole for repeatedly point out that Moreno came away with a draw and we’re getting this rematch on Saturday because Figueiredo kicked him in the balls really, really hard midway through the fight, but it kind of feels like a critical note to remember.
As great as the first fight was — and it was tremendously entertaining — the outcome wasn’t decided by a 10-8 round for Moreno or the judges failing to come to a consensus on how things played out; the champion would have won at least three round on all three scorecards, and therefore the fight, if not for the foul.
If the reports that Figueiredo was seriously ill and considering pulling out of the last fight are true — and I have no real reason to suspect otherwise — that coupled with the above makes me lean heavily towards the champion retaining and doing so in violence fashion this weekend.
Moreno fought to the best of his abilities and still only came away with a draw, and he only came away with a draw because he took one in the mommy-daddy button midway through the fight. He’s game, tough, and talented, and should remain a fixture in the division for the foreseeable future — he might even end up being the heir to the throne — but I genuinely believe Figueiredo is on a different level than everyone else in the 125-pound weight class and he’ll show it by ending this one early and impressively.
Prediction: Deiveson Figueiredo by TKO
Leon Edwards vs. Nathan Diaz
I just don’t know how Diaz wins this fight.
Edwards is the superior athlete with the more diverse collection of weapons, and for the frequent talk of Diaz’s vaunted conditioning and high-volume approach, when’s the last time he actually deployed that style and won a fight? It’s probably the Michael Johnson fight, which was five years ago, and it’s not 30-year-old Nathan Diaz walking into the Octagon tomorrow night in Phoenix.
While I think he’ll be more engaged and active than he was last time he fought at this venue, I honestly think Edwards can beat him in multiple ways, and it will all come down to whether Diaz gets busted up or not.
The Birmingham man will surely look to open him up with a steady diet of jabs, crosses, elbows, and high kicks, any number of which could do the trick. He might choose to battered Diaz’s lead leg with a series of low kicks, deadening the limb and taking away his opponent’s mobility and stability. He could also look to grapple, as Diaz is not a fan of getting put on his back by more athletic, stronger wrestlers. And honestly, I think Edwards could just pick at Diaz and win a straight up boxing match from range if he was so inclined because as good as Diaz’s boxing is (and it is good), the surging Briton is significantly quicker and more powerful, both of which would allow him to get the better of things in space, even if he is giving up two inches in reach.
My sense is that this will look similar to Diaz’s encounter with Jorge Masvidal, where “Gamebred” used his superior fluidity and ability to vary his attacks to piece up Stockton’s favorite son and eventually leave him in no state to continue.
I’m not calling for a doctor’s stoppage, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it happened either, and I do think Edwards gets a finish.
Prediction: Leon Edwards by TKO
Demian Maia vs. Belal Muhammad
This is one of those instances where despite being the lower-ranked fighter, Muhammad enters as the favorite, and rightfully so.
While I could see Maia doing his thing and springing a submission on Muhammad, the far more likely scenario is that the Chicagoland standout does a good job of maintaining distance and working at a steady clip, attacking from range, out-hustling Maia for three rounds. Muhammad as very good takedown defence, tremendous pressure, and enough of a diverse arsenal of strikes that Maia has to be defensively sound, which limits how much offence he can send Muhammad’s way.
This is the big, winnable fight the engaging 32-year-old has needed and I do believe he’ll make the most of it.
Prediction: Belal Muhammad by unanimous decision
Paul Craig vs. Jamahal Hill
Jamahal Hill is a problem.
While his resume doesn't necessarily bowl you over, the fact that he lands roughly eight strikes per minute while connecting at a greater than 50% clip means he’s in your face, battering you with punches at a rate of roughly one every seven seconds or so, and he’s not just flicking out some nothing jab or range-finding low kick. You could see Hill’s confidence growing in real time during his stoppage win over Ovince Saint Preux last year and it should be more of the same here.
As much as I respect Craig’s submission game, he’s never quite figured out the thing that makes Maia so dangerous, and that is how to force things to the ground or at least into the clinch in such a way that he can get into his offence quickly and effectively. Maia accumulated a series of trips and takedowns that made it so all he needed to do was get his hands on you and you were already partially hooped, but Craig hasn’t added that to his repertoire yet, and that means he’s going to need to work behind his hands in order to close the distance and clinch up, and I just don’t think he can do that effectively enough to alter the way this fight plays out.
The one X-factor to watch for, however, is if Hill comes in too emotional and that leads to openings that otherwise wouldn’t have existed. As long as he can keep things in check and stick to the game plan, “Sweet Dreams” should send the Scottish submission ace to sleep inside of the first two rounds.
Prediction: Jamahal Hill by TKO
Preliminary Card Picks
Drew Dober def. Brad Riddell
Eryk Anders def. Darren Stewart
Joanne Calderwood def. Lauren Murphy
Movsar Evloev def. Hakeem Dawodu
Pannie Kianzad def. Alexis Davis
Matt Frevola def. Terrance McKinney
Steven Peterson def. Chase Hooper
Luigi Vendramini def. Fares Ziam
Carlos Felipe def. Jake Collier
2021 PDP Record: 119-94-2, 3 NC (.546)