As the inimitable Jon Anik would say, “One more sleep.”
Tomorrow evening in Las Vegas, the loaded UFC 266 lineup will enter the Octagon, one-by-one in two-by-two pairings, culminating in a pair of championship fights that will have a significant on the shape of those divisions going forward.
Though it has taken a couple hits already this week, Saturday’s card is still packed with compelling, competitive fights and should be another one of those nights filled with tight contests that could go either way.
Not great when you’re trying to pick winners, but so much fun to watch that it outweighs the agony of barely breaking .500 or coming away with a losing record.
With a packed schedule the rest of the way, my aim is to hit at a 60% clip the rest of the year, if not better, obviously, and see if I can’t get up near that number for my overall year-to-date results as well, starting with this event.
Let’s go!
Alexander Volkanovski vs. Brian Ortega
And Still — that’s my call.
As much as I loved what Ortega did last time out against Chan Sung Jung and recognize that he’s a finishing threat at all times and in different realms, the one time he was in there with a complete fighter that was at the top of his game, he got beaten to a pulp. I know he’s changed everything up since then, tightened up the defense since then, built a better crew around himself since then, but none of that changes the fact that Volkanovski is a hyper-active, ultra-technical, supremely tactical fighter who knows how to win close contests.
Regardless of how you feel his two fights with Max Holloway should have been scored, you have to give Volkanovski his due for constantly touching the Hawaiian and making the necessary adjustments to either keep himself in the fight or get himself back into the fight, as was the case with the second meeting. He finds ways to disrupt what his opponents want to do, hits you with a ton of sharp, sneaky stuff that can often go unnoticed if you’re not paying close enough attention, and has the kind of freakish conditioning you need to do it for five five minute rounds without letting up.
I’m not sure Ortega can contend with all that, not in a five round contest where the champion is focused on making a statement.
I think Volkanovski works as the aggressor, keeps Ortega off balance and out of rhythm, piles up the punishment, and finishes him late.
Prediction: Alexander Volkanovski by TKO
Valentina Shevchenko vs. Lauren Murphy
I love Lauren Murphy’s origin story.
I love how much she believes in herself, the grit and drive she’s shown to constantly pull out these close decision wins and keep moving herself forward in the division, and I love that she’s getting this championship opportunity.
But she’s going to get trounced.
Shevchenko has lost one round in her flyweight career, and that came in a fight against a strong Brazilian veteran who is great in the clinch, great from top position, and after the champion had a minor knee surgery. Everyone overreacted to it because they hadn’t seen Shevchenko lose a round before, but it was one round, and she came out in her next fight and dismissed any notions that she might be slowing down by pulverizing a more complete, more dangerous, more talented fighter in Jessica Andrade.
I think Shevchenko can win this any way she wants, and while Murphy is tough as nails and never been finished in her career, there is a first time for everything.
Prediction: Valentina Shevchenko by TKO
Nick Diaz vs. Robbie Lawler
I just can’t pick Nick Diaz off a six-year layoff when he hasn’t won a fight in nearly a decade.
I just can’t.
If he’d even been as active as his brother, who hasn’t been particularly active, I could maybe convince myself that over five rounds, with Lawler up in age and having struggled in his last few fights, Diaz would be able to hang around early and turn up the tempo and volume late to win a decision, but six years is a lot of rust to shake off, and I just don’t know that Diaz has the same drive to win as he once did.
Lawler hasn’t looked great lately either, but at least he’s been in there and putting in the work at Sanford MMA this whole time, staying in shape, helping guys get ready, working hard to prepare for this one. I also think not having to put himself through a real strenuous weight cut this week will give him an added edge as well.
Diaz has only been finished twice in his career — once by strikes and once by a cut — but I have a hunch we see a third stoppage here, with a cut coming into play and Lawler pouring it on to the point where either the doctor or the referee has no choice but to step in and halt the action.
Prediction: Robbie Lawler by TKO
Curtis Blaydes vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik
Curtis Blaydes needs to wrestle, period.
I know he needed to develop his hands and they’ve come a long way since his first couple UFC starts, but those hands need to be a set-up to his wrestling, not his primary approach, and I think he and his coaches will be especially cognizant of that going forward given how things played out in his fight with Derrick Lewis.
I think it’s especially important in three-round fights like this one, because he has the gas to push hard for those 15 minutes — we’ve seen him do it a number of times, against more complete fighters than Rozenstruik. Where he’s gotten caught or into trouble is either (a) when he doesn’t wrestle or (b) in the fourth and fifth rounds when he’s too gassed from wrestling to wrestle any more.
In a three-round fight, Blaydes needs to work his way in behind his strikes, put Rozenstruik on the canvas, and keep him there; mauling him with punches and elbows when the opportunity is there, and grinding out control time when it’s not. When he gets back up, put him back down; lather, rinse, repeat.
Prediction: Curtis Blaydes by unanimous decision
Jessica Andrade vs. Cynthia Calvillo
I think Calvillo is going to get tuned up here.
As much as Andrade got pummelled by Shevchenko last time out, it’s her fight with Katlyn Chookagian that is more instructive here, and coupled with Calvillo’s bout with the perennial contender, I just can’t see a way that the former strawweight titleholder loses this fight.
I don’t think Calvillo can strike with Andrade. I don’t think she can take her down and control her on the ground either, at least not enough times or for long enough stretches that it really changes things. And I just don’t think she has the athleticism, the speed, the crispness to hang with “Bate Estaca” in general, plus I think Andrade is eager to remind everyone of just how good she is after getting embarrassed last time out.
Gimme the Brazilian by stoppage, late first or early second, with the kind of hellacious shot that dropped Chookagian and Karolina Kowalkiewicz.
Prediction: Jessica Andrade by TKO
Preliminary Card Picks
Merab Dvalishvili def. Marlon Moraes
Dan Hooker def. Nasrat Haqparast
Chris Daukaus def. Shamil Abdurakhimov
Taila Santos def. Roxanne Modafferi
Uros Medic def. Jalin Turner
Nick Maximov def. Cody Brundage
Matthew Semelsberger def. Martin Sano Jr.
Jonathan Pearce def. Omar Morales
2021 PDP Record: 198-154-4, 4 NC (.550)