Punch Drunk Predictions: UFC Fight Island 8
Looking to rebound after a rough start to the 2021 prediction campaign
Saturday didn’t go so well.
The fights were terrific and it was nice to get back to watching action inside the Octagon after the first real layoff since the six week break in March and April, but my picks came up short.
Significantly short.
Five straight losses in the middle of the card short.
But as Gus Johnson once famously said, “These things happen in MMA” and so I’m back for more, hoping to turn things around, while knowing that I could be heading into the first pay-per-view of the year later this week in a significant hole when it comes to attempting to amass a .700 win percentage with my picks this year.
Only way to get there is to keep making predictions and let the results fall where they may.
Here are the Punch Drunk Predictions for UFC Fight Island 8.
Michael Chiesa vs. Neil Magny
Magny is 16-4 over his last 20 appearances inside the Octagon, a run that dates back to the start of 2014, but as good as he’s been, I think there are two losses in there that can be instructive when it comes to how things shake out on Wednesday against Chiesa.
At UFC 190, Magny lost to Demian Maia, who used his superior grappling skills to drag Magny to the canvas and eventually submit him in the second round. Two years and one month later, Rafael Dos Anjos did the same thing, only quicker, at UFC 215 in Edmonton, getting Magny out of there in the first round.
While Chiesa might not be as decorated on the ground as the two Brazilian veterans, I expect him to deploy a comparable approach when he hits the cage on Wednesday night: force his way inside, get ahold of Magny, drag him to the ground, and hunt submissions.
Standing with Magny is a fools errand unless you have a significant edge in quickness or power, and Chiesa has neither. He’s giving up four-and-a-half inches in reach, and is at a disadvantage in the conditioning department, simply because everyone is at a disadvantage in the conditioning department against Magny, so the best course of action for “Maverick” is to get inside and make it a grappling match.
I don’t think it will be easy, I don't think it will be a particularly pretty fight either, but I do think Chiesa will get the job done and secure his fourth consecutive win at welterweight.
Prediction: Michael Chiesa by submission
Warlley Alves vs. Mounir Lazzez
Fights like this are a nightmare for me as a prognosticator because I’m really not sure where Lazzez fits in the division, but everything leads me towards picking him.
“The Sniper” is 10-1 overall, but has fought three people with reasonable MMA experience, losing to one of them. He looked solid in his promotional debut against Abdul Razak Alhassan, but that was a one-dimensional fight where he wasn’t forced to defend takedowns or do much of anything other than let go of his offense after Alhassan began to fade midway through the first, and I expect this fight to be very different.
Alves hasn’t become the superstar talent his TUF: Brazil coach Chael Sonnen suggested he would become, and lost two of his last three by stoppage coming into this one. He also hasn’t fought since November 2019, which means he’s the second straight opponent Lazzez is getting off an extended hiatus.
I’m still not sold on the 33-year-old Team Nogueira Abu Dhabi member being another beyond a middle-tier welterweight in the UFC, but this feels like another favorable assignment that he’ll win.
Prediction: Mounir Lazzez by TKO
Isaac Villanueva vs. Vinicius Moreira
Speaking of nightmare matchups to pick…
Villanueva is 0-2 in the UFC, spending a combined 7:20 in the Octagon between stoppage losses to Chase Sherman and Jordan Wright. Moreira is 0-3 and hasn’t made it out of the first yet, suffering consecutive stoppage losses to Alonzo Menifield, Eryk Anders, and Paul Craig during an ugly nine-month stretch of 2019.
I know it’s not the first time two winless fighters have clashed in the Octagon, but it’s actually kind of nice that this version of “Someone’s 0 has got to go” means that one of these guys is walking out of Etihad Arena with their first UFC victory.
This really is a coin-flip fight that could end any number of ways, but I’m going to side with Moreira, crossing my fingers that he closes the distance, puts Villanueva on the canvas, and submits him.
Prediction: Vinicius Moreira by submission
Roxanne Modafferi vs. Viviane Araujo
As I said at the end of last month/year, speaking with Roxanne Modafferi twice in 2020 was one of the highlights of my year writing features because each time, a tremendous story was produced that reminded me of my instincts and skills as an interviewer and writer.
We spoke again ahead of this one and had another terrific conversation about rediscovering her balance and venturing to Fight Island, and she continues to be a marvel to me for her perseverance, constant improvements, and mostly unwavering positivity.
But I think this is a bad matchup for her and 2021 isn’t going to start off with the same kind of exuberance that last year began with, unfortunately.
Araujo has proven herself to be a legitimate Top 10 flyweight and could realistically be ranked higher than she is now, considering she’s 2-1 in the division and her loss came to Jessica Eye in her first fight after challenging for the title. She moves well, is a fluid striker, and a superior athlete to Modafferi, all of which I believe will carry her to victory.
Now, “The Happy Warrior” will make it interesting because she’s a perennial tough out and I’ll be interested to see if she can turn this into a grappling match, which would obviously change the dynamics of this pairing, however if it stays standing — and I think it will — I believe Araujo will stick-and-move to a sweep of the scorecards.
Prediction: Viviane Araujo by unanimous decision
Matt Schnell vs. Tyson Nam
This is my favorite sneaky-good fight that no one is talking about from this opening tetra-pack of events on Fight Island — a clash between Top 15 flyweights and proven finishers that should be all kinds of fun from the outset.
Stylistically, it’s “Grappler vs. Striker” and the outcome absolutely hinges on Schnell’s ability to get this one to the ground… and I’m not sold on his ability to get it there before Nam detonates a bomb on his chin.
The 37-year-old veteran has earned back-to-back stoppage wins after going the distance in each of his first two UFC appearances, while Scnhell is returning for the first time in over a year after getting clocked by Alexandre Pantoja at the end of 2019 in Busan. Each of his three losses in the UFC have been knockouts, and while A+B doesn’t have to equal C, this feels like one of those cases where it holds up to me.
Nam gets his range, slings some dynamite, and scores a third straight stoppage win.
Prediction: Tyson Nam by TKO
Lerone Murphy vs. Douglas Silva de Andrade
Murphy makes his third appearance in the Octagon and third trip to Fight Island to face off with the 35-year-old Brazilian veteran, who returned to featherweight last time out (November 2019) with a victory over former bantamweight champ Renan Barao.
“D’Silva” is a marauder — he presses forward relentlessly and throws nothing but heaters, which makes him fun to watch, but susceptible to (1) getting tired quickly, and (2) getting cracked by counters, both of which work to Murphy’s favor here.
I believe Murphy is a potential breakout candidate this year and someone who could prove to be a Leon Edwards replica at featherweight, and I think we see more evidence to support that here.
I expect “The Miracle” to box up the Brazilian and secure the finish, positioning himself for a significant step up in competition next time out.
Prediction: Lerone Murphy by TKO
Preliminary Card Picks
Tom Breese def. Omari Akhmedov
Ricky Simon def. Gaetano Pirrello
Sumudaerji def. Zarrukh Adashev
Dalcha Lungiambula def. Markus Perez
Francisco Figueiredo def. Jerome Rivera
Mason Jones def. Mike Davis
Umar Nurmagomedov def. Sergey Morozov
Victoria Leonardo def. Manon Fiorot
2021 PDP Record: 4-6-0 (.400)