Punch Drunk Predictions: UFC Vegas 18
Who will emerge victorious and how inside the Octagon this weekend
This is going to make me sound like a masochist, but part of the reason I really like doing predictions, setting a lofty goal for myself (.700 win percentage), and keeping track of my record is that when things go sideways — and they invariably do at some point — it makes the climb back towards that target even more interesting and exciting.
Through the first three events of the year, I’m hitting .457, which would be the most amazing thing ever if this were baseball, but is significant less appealing given that I’m picking fights.
UFC 257 got away from me.
I was on the wrong side of every close fight. The things I thought would happen, didn’t happen, and fight-by-fight, the losses mounted, until Dustin Poirier dropped Conor McGregor and my results for the night landed at 4-7. Ouch.
But here’s the great thing about this venture: there is another card — and therefore another chance to get moving in the right direction — pretty much every week.
And so let’s get to it.
These are the Punch Drunk Predictions for UFC Vegas 18.
Alistair Overeem vs. Alexander Volkov
It just feels like there are a number of things working against Volkov in this one:
it’s at the Apex, which means they’re fighting in the small cage
the small cage means he has a reduced ability to operate at range
he’s stuck fighting in close with one of the best heavyweight clinch-fighters in MMA history
his opponent also happens to train with the last guy to beat him
that guy wrestled him into oblivion and this guy he’s facing on Saturday could opt to change levels too
The fact that Overeem’s chin is papier-marche means that Volkov will have 25 minutes to pierce his guard and find the target, however, the towering Russian hasn’t really been much of a one-hitter-quitter kind of guy over the course of his career.
For me, the more likely scenario is Overeem fighting a smart, strategic bout where he works the body in the clinch, throws in a handful of trips and dumps, bullies Volkov on the mat a little, and wins a clear, but still competitive decision.
Prediction: Alistair Overeem by unanimous decision
Cory Sandhagen vs. Frankie Edgar
So at the end of last year, I landed on the wrong side of the two “veteran vs. younger guy” results, picking both Geoff Neal and Chito Vera to beat Stephen Thompson and Jose Aldo respectively, and I vowed never to make that same mistake again.
As an old guy myself, I owed it to my brethren to back them in combat…
But yeah, that ain’t happening here.
Look, I think Edgar is amazing and the fact that he’s still this competitive at 39 is incredible, though not surprising if you know his work ethic and mindset, but I thought that Pedro Munhoz did enough to earn the victory in his bantamweight debut and that Sandhagen will be too much for him on Saturday night.
The fact that this is a three-round fights makes it a little more complicated because a couple close rounds can create chaos on the scorecards, but I do believe we’ll see Sandhagen use his fluid striking to chip away at Edgar, who can’t do the “stick and move” thing as well at ‘35 because his speed advantage isn’t as great as it was at lightweight or featherweight.
“The Answer” will have his moments because he almost always does, but Sandhagen is the better fighter of the two at this stage (IMO) and will out-land him on the way to a victory on the scorecards.
Prediction: Cory Sandhagen by unanimous decision
Michael Johnson vs. Clay Guida
This is one of those pairings where you just can’t feel uber-confident picking either man.
Johnson is on a three-fight slide and his last win came in October 2018 against Artem Lobov, while Guida is 1-3 over his last four, with his lone victory coming against the re-animated corpse of BJ Penn. The former has an innate ability to freeze and make mistakes at the absolute worst possible moment, and the latter has never really developed beyond being an Energizer Bunny with long hair and an affinity for The Big Lebowski.
On paper, this is a fight Johnson should win — he the vastly superior striker, has solid takedown defense, and is the younger, quicker, more fluid athlete by a considerable margin. The guy has wins over Tony Ferguson, Edson Barboza, and Dustin Poirier, for chrissakes, and yet he’s also fumbled away quality starts against Darren Elkins and Thiago Moises over the last handful of years.
I’m siding with Johnson to use his footwork, reach, and varied striking to get the victory, but I’m not sold on the fact that he’s a little better than a 2:1 favorite.
Prediction: Michael Johnson by TKO
Alexandre Pantoja vs. Manel Kape
I absolutely love this matchup between the flyweight stalwart Pantoja, who has settled in nicely as the best non-contender in the division, and the newcomer Kape, who made waves and had some success under the RIZIN banner before being on the sidelines all last year.
This one really comes down to how Pantoja chooses to fight because if he looks to close the distance and turn this into a grappling match, he should be the considerably grappler of the two… but he might get a alpha and want to stand with Kape, and then things get much, much closer because “Starboy” can crack.
The fights that Pantoja has lost in the UFC are the ones where he can’t dominate the wrestling, either because he can’t get the other guy down or they’re too aggressive and attacking and he’s forced to be on the back foot the whole time.
I think that will be the approach Kape tries to utilize — come forward, pressure him, and make him exchange — but I believe the Brazilian veteran will wisely look to clinch and wrestle and will come away with the victory.
Prediction: Alexandre Pantoja by unanimous decision
Cody Stamann vs. Askar Askar
I’m glad to see that Stamann will still get to compete this weekend after his original opponent, Andre Ewell, was forced out, and that neither he nor his opponent, Askar, will have to make the cut to ‘35, as this will instead be a featherweight contest.
This should be a fairly standard, routine victory for Stamann, who is the better athlete, better wrestler, and far more experienced of the two, and Askar doesn’t bring anything to the table that is particularly worrisome.
Look for Stamann to fight a safe, conservative fight, working behind his strikes, mixing in takedowns, but not taking any big chances in order to get back in the win column and get things moving in the right direction again to start 2021.
Prediction: Cody Stamann by unanimous decision
Carlos Diego Ferreira vs. Beneil Dariush
When these two fought for the first time (October 2014), both were relatively new to the UFC and just starting to make their way up the lightweight ranks. Six years and some change later, they’re Top 15 fighters in one of the deepest divisions in the sport and running back to determine which one will insert themselves into the frenzied battle for position atop the 155-pound weight class to start 2021.
Ferreira arrives on a six-fight winning streak, most recently having choked out Anthony Pettis last January, while Dariush pushed his winning streak to five with a spinning backfist knockout of Scott Holtzman in August.
As much as Dariush got the better of things the first time, I lean Ferreira here because the Brazilian has shored up some of the deficiencies that were present in their initial encounter and I’m just not sold on Dariush’s ability to weather big shots and rally against someone as skilled as Ferreira.
While he’s done a great job of working out of trouble and securing finishes in his last four, Ferreira won’t give him the opportunity to get off the hook if he hurts him, and I have a sneaky suspicion that the Fortis MMA product finds a home for a big shot early that opens the door to a finish.
Prediction: Carlos Diego Ferreira by TKO
Preliminary Card Picks
Mike Rodriguez def. Danilo Marques
Timur Valiev def. Martin Day
Devonte Smith def. Justin Jaynes
Joselyne Edwards def. Karol Rosa
Molly McCann def. Lara Procopio
Youssef Zalal def. SeungWoo Choi
Ode Osbourne def. Jerome Rivera
2021 PDP Record: 16-19-0 (.457)