Punch Drunk Predictions: UFC Vegas 59
Will it be Thiago Santos or Jamahal Hill? And which two hopefuls will leave Las Vegas as the newest additions to the Ultimate Fighter family?
Through the first seven months of action inside the Octagon, I’ve managed to amass a .645 winning percentage with my picks, which if pretty damn good if I do say so myself.
To put that into greater context for folks, I’m nearly 100 wins above .500 for the year (93 to be exact) through 318 fights. There have been more events where I’ve had double digit wins (five) than shows where I’ve had a losing record (four) and seven instances where I’ve gotten 75% or more of my selections correct on a given card.
While I always strive for perfection and maintain my year-long goal of a .700 winning percentage, I am quite happy with the way things have gone so far… which is why I’m introducing a new wrinkle to things by including betting selections into the mix, because who doesn’t like additional challenges?
Now, let me start by stating that all these selections are my own thoughts, I’m not responsible for any losses you incur from following these selections, and please — PLEASE — wager responsibly.
Each week, I’ll keep track of my plays just like I do my picks so you’ll know how I’m doing for the year, and we’ll see if we can’t turn a little play money profit before the year is out. More details in the betting section following the predictions.
Let’s have some fun, shall we?
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Thiago Santos vs. Jamahal Hill
This feels like Jamahal Hill’s fight to lose.
As much as I respect Santos and the run he had to reach a championship fight, he understandably hasn’t been the same since, and I don’t see that turning around; not here, and probably not ever if I’m being completely honest. He’s 38, had surgery on both knees, has been through a bunch of battles, and just welcomed a new child… things in his life are different, and it’s okay that his time as a top contender is coming to a close.
My sense is that Hill wants to make another statement here, but I also think he’ll be smart about it — biding his time similar to the way he did against Johnny Walker rather than crashing forward and putting himself at risk of getting clipped. I actually think this will look something like the Ovince Saint Preux fight, where Hill used the opening round to make his reads, get a sense of OSP’s timing and find his range before getting loose with his hands and finding a finish.
Only Glover Teixeira has stopped Santos since his move to light heavyweight, but I feel like that has more to do with his opponents choosing safety over his ability to avoid getting finished, and I don’t believe Hill will make those same types of business decisions this weekend.
Prediction: Jamahal Hill
Vicente Luque vs. Geoff Neal
So I think we’ve all slightly overvalued Luque and undervalued Neal, and I’m picking the Fortis MMA man to score the upset and collect the biggest win of his career this weekend.
As I said on Thursday, I think there is no way for any of us to know how debilitating Neal’s medical issues from 2020 were and how long it has taken him to get back to feeling like himself again, mostly because he’s a pretty quiet dude who isn’t going to get into all that, even if you ask him. But in addition to having gotten right with a win over Santiago Ponzinibbio last December, I think folks forget how good he looked before things went sideways for him.
He completely out-worked and fended off Belal Muhammad at the start of 2019 and then earned back-to-back stoppage wins over Niko Price and Mike Perry, four months after “Platinum” went the distance with Luque, if those sorts of things matter to you.
On the other side, I think we give Luque way too much credit for a win over Tyron Woodley (in a fight where he was getting tagged) and a run of finishes against a similar level of competition than Neal has beaten as well. The one real good feather in his cap is the win over Michael Chiesa at UFC 265, but even that was a bit of a “well look what I’ve found” finish, as opposed to Luque running through the Spokane native.
They’ve got a lot of shared opponents, comparable wins, and similar setbacks. I think we see the best version of Geoff Neal on Saturday night, and I think that guy beats Vicente Luque.
Prediction: Geoff Neal
Mohammed Usman vs. Zac Pauga
Pauga is just such a more fluid, dynamic athlete than Usman, who has cobbled together a 7-2 professional record and squeaked by Eduardo Perez in the semifinals to reach this moment.
Their last fights before entering the competition tell me everything I need to know about this contest: while Pauga defeated former UFC competitor Markus Perez to push his record to 5-0, Usman lost to 41-year-old Brandon Sayles by rear-naked choke.
While I don’t think Pauga will necessarily get the finish, I do believe he will dominate from the outset, earn the victory, and be an intriguing addition to the light heavyweight division going forward.
Prediction: Zac Pauga
Brogan Walker vs. Juliana Miller
This one profiles to me as a fighter that has reached their peak (Walker) taking on an ascending talent (Miller) and we’re going to find out if the emerging athlete is ready to beat a seasoned veteran.
And I believe Miller is, in fact, ready to take that step.
Look — Walker has been in there with some good fighters and her win over Miranda Maverick is a real quality victory that has aged exceptionally well, but that was four years ago, her last fight came against an opponent with a .500 record (who has since dropped another fight), and I wonder if Miller will be able to follow a similar approach to what Hannah Guy showed against Walker inside the house?
The two have been training together — Miller and Guy — and the 26-year-old strikes me as someone capable of joining that collection of up-and-coming women in the 125-pound weight class looking to make waves, and a win over Walker would be a good way to start.
A finish might be asking too much, but I think “Killer Miller” collects a quality win to become the sixth female Ultimate Fighter winner.
Prediction: Juliana Miller
Augusto Sakai vs. Serghei Spivac
These two enter heading in opposite directions, and I believe that is going to continue through Saturday.
Sakai enters on a three-fight slide, having been finished in each, while Spivac comes in off a first-round stoppage victory, having won four of his last five. While Sakai has faced the tougher competition by far, those two split decision wins in his four-fight run of success really change the way he was perceived heading into these last couple, and I think they say more about the general parity below the heavyweight elite than anything else.
I don’t think that much actually separates these two, and I’m going to side with the younger fighter who has a clearer path to victory in my opinion.
This isn’t a date against a quick, fluid, dynamic prospect like Tom Aspinall — it’s a matchup with a plodding heavyweight that I think Spivac will be able to take down and maul.
Prediction: Serghei Spivac
Ariane Lipski vs. Priscila Cachoeira
Lipski doesn’t exactly need a win her two maintain her place on the roster, but it kind of feels like an “If not now, when?” situation for the former KSW standout. Fortunately for her, Cachoeira is exactly the type of opponent she’s been able to beat in the past, and that should continue on Saturday.
As long as Lipski sticks to what she does well — working from range, attacking from top position if it goes to the ground — she should be able to get the better of the limited, but durable Cachoeira.
This is going to be the fight that tells us whether we’ve all been waiting for a breakout that isn’t going to happen for Lipski, as she needs to start stringing wins together if she wants to have long-term success in the Octagon and come anywhere close to living up to the hype that accompanied her when she crossed over from KSW.
I think she gets it done, but I don’t feel particularly confident in saying that either.
Prediction: Ariane Lipski
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Preliminary Card Picks
Michał Oleksiejczuk def. Sam Alvey
Terrance McKinney def. Erick Gonzalez
Bryan Battle def. Takashi Sato
Josh Quinlan def. Jason Witt
Miranda Granger def. Cory McKenna
Stephanie Egger def. Mayra Bueno Silva
2022 PDP Record: 205-112-0, 1 NC (.645)
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Wanna Make a Bet?
Alright, so here how this is going to work:
Starting with a $10,000 bankroll and one unit will therefore represent $100 (one percent of said bankroll)
All bets and odds will be based on lines at bet365.com because that may or may not be where I make the occasional wager
No maximums, no minimums — just making bets based on my feel for things
Wager at your own risk; I’m not responsible if you lose, just as you won’t give me a cut if you win
This is all meant to be fun, so be chill and we won’t have any problems
UFC Vegas 59 Wagers
Current Bankroll: $10,000
1.00u Geoff Neal win +150
1.00u Serghei Spivac by T/KO -120
0.50u Serghei Spivac win R1 +210
0.50u Serghei Spivac win R2 +500
1.00u Zac Pauga decision +162
1.00u Juliana Miller decision +150
1.50u Pauga/Miller win +152
1.25u Miranda Granger win +175
0.25u PDP 12-fight parlay +24420
Total Wagers: 8.00u
Total Returns: ?