Punch Drunk Predictions: UFC Vegas 24
Will it be Robert Whittaker or Kelvin Gastelum that gets their hand raised on Saturday night?
They say that poker players can’t tell you much about the hands where they won the most money or earned the biggest victories of their careers, but they can tell you everything about the collection of bad beats that sunk them over the years.
I would argue the same is true about folks that pick fights or offer up betting advice for a living — it’s the ones you missed that stick with you the most.
Last weekend, I went 8-5 with my picks — the third straight week at or above 60 percent — but it’s the three poor decisions I made that stick out to me the most. I can live with failing to pick Jarjis Danho and going against Canadian veteran John Makdessi, but ignoring my instincts and better judgment to pick Sasha Palatnikov, William Knight, and Mike Perry resulted in a good night instead of a great night and I’ve been kicking myself ever since.
It doesn’t matter that Mackenzie Dern and Arnold Allen were main card ‘dogs that landed; those three bad calls continue to bother me more than any correct upset call this year.
Still, three straight weeks at 60 percent or better and 38 wins in the last 61 fights dating back to UFC 259 ain’t to shabby.
Now let’s see if I can keep it up.
Here are the Punch Drunk Predictions for UFC Vegas 24.
Robert Whittaker vs. Kelvin Gastelum
As happy as I am for Gastelum that he got back into the win column and feels like he’s primed to turn things around, there is no way for me to pick against Whittaker here; not with how good he looked last time out and not with Gastelum being one good, but not great win removed from a three-fight skid.
Whittaker is the more active, more dynamic fighter, and what makes him such a clear choice here is that his tremendous wrestling defence actually takes away what would normally be a potential path to victory for Gastelum. Without being able to get this fight to the ground and control it on the canvas consistently — and I don’t think he’ll be able to — the 29-year-old American will be forced to stand and trade with the ex-middleweight champion, and that’s not something I see working out favourably for Gastelum, given his hesitancy and low striking rates in recent outings.
But this isn’t just a pick based on Gastelum’s recent sluggish outings — he could be top form and I would still pick Whittaker because he’s a conditioning machine, as tough as they come mentally, and now a full year removed from feeling burnt out.
I think this is going to be a “death by a thousand cuts” fight where Whittaker picks and picks and picks and picks until Gastelum finally collapses, giving “Bobby Knuckles” a third straight win and an unassailable case for challenging for the title later this year.
Prediction: Robert Whittaker by TKO
Drakkar Klose vs. Jeremy Stephens
It feels really weird to be leaning towards a guy that is without a victory in his last five fights and hasn’t had his hand raised since February 2018, but here we are.
Klose was on the brink of beating Beneil Dariush last March, but he got loose and a little sloppy when he had him hurt and paid for it, getting cracked in return and eventually finished a minute into the second round. After watching that sequence again a few times over the last couple weeks, I just can’t bring myself to pick him because I don’t see him being able to turn this into a grappling match, which means he’s going to have to stand with Stephens, and that’s not a spot I favour him in.
As much as Stephens has struggled in terms of results, all of those setbacks came against ranked opponents and he has a more diverse striking attack than Dariush, who was able to find Klose’s chin and put him to sleep. While I’m super-hesitant to put much stock in the 34-year-old veteran’s pre-fight talk about feeling better than ever and being ready to go on a run, I do believe he has more than enough talent, power, and experience to get the job done on Saturday night.
Whether that grows into something bigger is a different question for a different day.
Prediction: Jeremy Stephens by TKO
Andrei Arlovski vs. Chase Sherman
This one feels like a coin-flip to me, which is probably unfair to Arlovski, who has historically done well in these matchups. But we’re at the point in his career where I just can’t shake the “but what if he eats a big shot?” question every time he steps in there with someone who can crack, and while there are definitely holes in his game, Sherman can indeed sling it.
While I think there is danger for Arlovski should he engage in any extended striking exchanges, I actually think we’ll see him rely on his wrestling and grappling here more than anything else, as he should have a considerable edge in the clinch and on the ground, which also works to neutralize Sherman’s power.
After all these years, Arlovski is too smart, too savvy, too experienced to go out there trying to trade blows with a big hitter who is more than decade his junior.
It could be a slog, but the elder statesman of the division should get it done.
Prediction: Andrei Arlovski by unanimous decision
Abdul Razak Alhassan vs. Jacob Malkoun
On the surface, this looks like a potentially dangerous matchup for Malkoun, who was overwhelmed by Phillip Hawes in his debut and now faces notorious quick starter Alhassan in his middleweight debut.
Taking a closer look, this still feels like a really dangerous matchup for Malkoun, who faced limited competition on his way to the UFC and while Alhassan is limited, I do think the move to middleweight will help with his cardio issues and the dude has always hit like a tank, so that should carry over to enough to remain a threat, especially here.
Maybe Malkoun just froze up and needed to get that first one out of the way in a “Well, it couldn’t be any worse than the last one!” kind of way, and he comes out and looks great, proving me wrong, but I’m going to need to see something from him before I can feel comfortable picking him to win a fight in the UFC.
Prediction: Abdul Razak Alhassan by TKO
Luis Pena vs. Alexander Munoz
This one is tricky to me because Pena’s size and all-around awkwardness make him a weird matchup for just about anyone in this tier of the lightweight division, while Munoz has faced and beaten more experienced foes prior to reaching the UFC, but is more of a grinder than anything else.
Both come from good camps — Pena is now at American Top Team, while Munoz is a Team Alpha Male staple — and should come in ready to go, so it comes down to potential avenues to victory for me and Pena has the edge.
Let me be clear: I can 100 percent see Munoz coming out and wrestling “Violent Bob Ross” into oblivion; it would not surprise me at all if that is how things played out on Saturday night.
However, Pena has always shown potential, he’ll have a massive height advantage and solid three-inch reach advantage, plus Munoz got lit up by a southpaw last time out, and while Pena isn’t as polished a striker as Nasrat Haqparast, he should be able to find success on the feet.
Again, it wouldn’t be surprised if Pena got taken down a bunch of times and controlled on the canvas, but I’m banking on him actually taking a step forward and earning an impressive victory this weekend.
Prediction: Luis Pena by unanimous decision
Preliminary Card Picks
Tracy Cortez def. Justine Kish
Alexander Romanov def. Juan Espino
Lupita Godinez def. Jessica Penne
Gerald Meerschaert def. Bartosz Fabinski
Austin Hubbard def. Dakota Bush
Josiane Nunes def. Zarah Fairn
Tony Gravely def. Anthony Birchak
2021 PDP Record: 78-58-1, 2 No Contests (0.561)