Punch Drunk Predictions: UFC Vegas 29
Will The Korean Zombie bounce back or can Dan Ige collect the biggest win of his career?
I’ve been going about this all wrong.
After each week where I’ve struggled, I’ve come back here thinking about how to make up that ground, which is a classic bad gambler mistake that I actually learned to avoid when I was 12 or 13 and betting on the ponies pretty much every day.
Yes, I’m serious.
I grew up at the track. My first real job was at the track. A healthy portion of my friend group throughout high school and my first serious girlfriend were all people I knew from the track. I called out of work the next day from the track once because my brother and I were rolling and there was no way I was leaving when I was supposed to leave in order to get a proper night’s sleep and go to work the next day.
I blew a lot of money at the track. I made a bunch of money too, mind you, but I knew then and should remember now that there is no reason to chase after losses; just be done with ‘em and move on to the next race… or fight card.
So that’s what I’m going to do.
No more worrying about getting to a .600 winning percentage or chasing that .700 target; just one week at a time with good analysis, smart choices, and hopefully some wins.
Good luck.
These are the Punch Drunk Predictions for UFC Vegas 29.
Chan Sung Jung vs. Dan Ige
I think youth prevails here.
As much as my initial inclination is to side with the veteran Jung because he’s more experienced, more savvy, my tested, I genuinely believe he’s heading in the wrong direction career-wise now and that Ige’s volume, quickness, and overall toughness will prove to be a bad matchup for the venerable South Korean.
While I don’t think Ige is going to land another “clean kill” as he and his coach Eric Nicksick called his win over Gavin Tucker, I do believe he’s capable of doing a pretty sound recreation of Brian Ortega’s performance last time out, where he picked apart Jung from range and just walloped him with volume and precision and timing and more volume. The fact that Ige has never been finished and has shown he’s more than capable of hanging tough against the likes of Calvin Kattar and Edson Barboza only serve to bolster my belief that he can get it done this weekend.
Fair or not, Jung hasn’t won a fight outside of the first round in a long, long time and since I don’t see him getting Ige out of there in the opening five minutes, I’m playing the percentages and banking on the younger, fresher fighter with the more diverse skill set to get the job done on Saturday.
Prediction: Dan Ige by unanimous decision
Aleksei Oleinik vs. Serghei Spivac
As much as I should side with Spivac as the guy coming in on a two-fight winning streak, this feels like one of those spots where the younger, less experienced fighter is going to fuck around and end up getting caught in an Ezekiel choke or something like that.
Spivac hasn’t shown one-shot power since graduating to the UFC, and while he could certainly chip away and wear Oleinik down, I think the crafty veteran will come out quickly and find a way to get this to the canvas, probably by pulling guard, and once it gets there, all bets are off because “The Boa Constrictor” can make you feel you’re in control right up until the point where you’re struggling to breath and somehow tapping.
This feels reminiscent of the Junior Albini fight to me in that Spivac is okay, but nothing special, and while a win would be huge for him, it’s the kind of spot where Oleinik shows he really does still have plenty of gas left in the tank and collects his 60th professional win… and 47th submission finish.
Prediction: Aleksei Oleinik by submission
Marlon Vera vs. Davey Grant
My heart wants to pick Davey Grant, the infinitely likeable Brit who has persevered through myriad injuries to emerge on the other side and string together three straight wins heading into this one.
But my head knows Vera is the right choice here, despite his poor third-round calculation last time out against Jose Aldo.
Grant doesn’t mind a good dust-up and Vera will oblige him, but that’s a poor tradeoff to me because “Chito” has more weapons and a more expansive arsenal than the former TUF finalist. There have been too many instances where Grant has been touched up by less talented fighters than Vera for me to believe he will safely navigate three rounds against the Team Oyama representative, who should come out firing off low kicks, snapping out jabs, and looking to hurt Grant early and often.
Somewhere later in the fight, Vera stings him with something heavy and clamps onto a choke to get the finish.
Prediction: Marlon Vera by submission
Julian Erosa vs. SeungWoo Choi
Erosa’s tidy two-fight winning streak has been fun to watch, but dude just eats too many shots for me to side with him here.
In a fight where some of his usual advantages (or at least pluses) like height and reach aren’t factors, I have to go with the numbers and while he throws big volume, he also eats big volume in return, and a smoother, more fluid, more fundamental striker like Choi is going to take advantage of that.
Could Erosa land something funky that puts the South Korean down and out? Of course, and he’ll be looking for those kill shots from the jump, but my guess is this looks a lot more like Erosa’s loss to Julio Arce, where the East Coast regional veteran peppered from range and avoided those tricky spots where he could get popped and stopped, leading to an eventual finish.
I don’t think Choi puts him away, but I think he wins handily on the scorecards.
Prediction: SeungWoo Choi by unanimous decision
Wellington Turman vs. Bruno Silva
This is such a miserable fight to pick.
Turman is 24 and coming off consecutive fights being cancelled, one because of lingering COVID issues and the other after he contracted pneumonia. Silva, on the other hand, is 31 and coming off a two-year suspension, having last fought towards the end of 2018, meaning he’s got 31 months of rust to shake off on Saturday.
I’m going to base my pick on the fact that Turman got knocked out by noted grinder and non-knockout merchant Andrew Sanchez in the first round the last time he did compete and pick Silva to get it done early, before the extended hiatus catches up to him.
Prediction: Bruno Silva by TKO
Matt Brown vs. Dhiego Lima
If Brown is going to collect one more UFC victory before riding off into the sunset, this is his best chance in a little bit, and even then, I’m not sure he can get it done.
After being an all-action wild man for much of his career, the 40-year-old’s pace has slowed to a crawl in recent outings, and while Lima isn’t a world-beater, he is good enough to come forward, chop at your legs, and beat you on volume alone. He got walked down and picked apart a little against Belal Muhammad, but Brown can no longer replicate that type of performance, not that he’s ever really wanted to fight that way in the first place.
While he might be able to land one big blow and get Lima out of there, I think the more likely outcome is Lima maintaining space, keeping Brown outside, and out-pointing him in a less exciting than you would envision fight, kind of like how Brown’s matchup with Carlos Condit played out last time.
Prediction: Dhiego Lima by unanimous decision
Preliminary Card Picks
Aleksa Camur def. Nicolae Negumereanu
Kanako Murata def. Virna Jandiroba
Matthew Semelsberger def. Khaos Williams
Josh Parisian def. Roque Martinez
Ricky Glenn def. Joaquim Silva
Casey O’Neill def. Lara Procopio
2021 PDP Record: 126-101-2, 3 NC (.543)