Punch Drunk Predictions: UFC Vegas 23
Can Marvin Vettori keep things rolling or will Kevin Holland step in and step back into contention in the middleweight division?
Things are trending in the right direction.
Not to get too far ahead of myself, but after a poor start to the year on the prediction front, the month of March yielded 30 correct predictions from 48 bouts across four events, good for a .625 winning percentage. While that’s not quite the .700 I’m always gunning for, given that I was hovering around .500 for most of the first two months, I’m not going to be grumpy about hitting at a 62.5% clip over the last four fight cards.
I’m not grumpy about the slate on tap for tomorrow either, as this weekend’s early morning fight card offers — in my opinion, at least — a chance to put up a big number of things go according to Hoyle.
Perhaps the most challenging fight to diagnose out of the entire collection is the main event, largely because it’s so damn difficult to know what to expect from Kevin Holland, the talkative talent who steps in opposite Marvin Vettori for his second headlining turn in 21 days. Last time out, he looked disinterested in chasing down a victory, and Vettori isn’t the kind of guy you want to let hang around too long, so seeing what version of Holland shows up on Saturday should go a long way to determining the outcome of the final fight of the night.
As for everything else before that, well, I love a lot of the matchups and think there are some clear winners out there, so let’s stop with the chattering and get on with the forecasting.
Here are the UFC Vegas 23 Punch Drunk Predictions.
Please enjoy responsibly.
Marvin Vettori vs. Kevin Holland
Look: Holland could show up focused, with his mouth shut and his mind right, and get right back into the win column by frustrating Vettori at range and getting the naturally aggressive and annoyed Italian more annoyed and aggressive, which would open up opportunities to finish.
That is a very real possibility and one I wouldn’t be surprised to see play out on Saturday night, but I can’t pick Holland; not after his fight with Derek Brunson, and not against a fighter like Vettori who is already very good and only continues to get better.
People seem to believe Vettori is a striker, but he foundation of the 27-year-old’s game is his grappling, and just as he was able to grind down Jack Hermansson over five rounds, I believe he’ll deploy the same approach against Holland, who showed against Brunson that his takedown defence isn’t great, his eagerness to get back to his feet isn’t any better, and he has a tendency to over-extend on his strikes, putting himself off balance, which makes taking him down even easier.
If I saw that three weeks ago, Master Rafael Cordeiro saw that three weeks ago, and Vettori will be ready to take full advantage of it this weekend.
Vettori hasn’t been a big finisher thus far in the UFC, and I don’t see that changing here, as Holland is also tough to put away. That being said, I do see a dominant victory for Vettori, who will then call for a title shot, prompting Israel Adesanya to post something borderline on Twitter almost immediately because you know “Stylebender” is sure to be watching.
Prediction: Marvin Vettori by unanimous decision
Arnold Allen vs. Sodiq Yusuff
As I said in 10 Things I Love earlier in the week, I adore the timing of this terrific pairing because neither guy is going to lose any ground in the rankings if they land on the unhappy side of the results. This is a perfect matchup between two upstarts looking to take a step forward and I think we come away with a clearer understanding of just how skilled the victor is, while still being thoroughly impressed by the guy that ends up catching a loss.
While it’s entirely possible that Yusuff just jabs up the streaking Brit, I think we’re more likely to get a back-and-forth boxing match than a stick-and-move fight, and if that’s how things play out, I believe Allen packing superior pop and having more additional avenues to victory at his disposal will be the difference-maker here.
Similar to Vettori, I think there is a misconception of Allen as a grappler because he’s caught a few submissions and hasn’t registered any clean kills on the feet, but he’s got clean, crisp hands of his own and if Yusuff tries to go shot-for-shot with him, I believe the firepower coming back his way will be too much. It may not put him down for the count, but it could open opportunities for Allen to grapple, where the Tristar Gym representative should have a considerable advantage.
More ways to win the fight makes Allen the pick for me, but I expect this one to be thoroughly entertaining from start to finish, whether I’m correct in my analysis or not.
Prediction: Arnold Allen by unanimous decision
Sam Alvey vs. Julian Marquez
As much as I want to pick against Julian Marquez purely out of spite because he fumbled away a grand opportunity to get some TMZ headlines courtesy of his Miley Cyrus callout and subsequent bungling, “The Cuban Missile Crisis” should get the better of things here with relative ease.
Sam Alvey is a nice dude — a bit weird if I’m being honest, but a nice enough guy — and a real veteran of the sport, but he’s also 34 years old, making the walk for the 50th time in his professional career, and doing so on a five-fight run without a victory. He’s 3-6-1 over his last 10 fights and now he’s returning to middleweight for the first time since October 2017.
None of that sounds good to me.
Marquez looked rusty back in February against Maki Pitolo, but he found a way to get the job done, stealing victory from the jaws of defeat by wrapping up the Hawaiian’s neck late. Now, with a fight under his belt, another full camp working with James Krause, and a vulnerable opponent in front of him, this should be a chance for the 30-year-old Contender Series graduate (Class of ‘17) to show his full compliment of skills and secure another win.
Prediction: Julian Marquez by TKO
Nina Nunes vs. Mackenzie Dern
Love, love, love this fight and don’t have a real good sense of how it’s going to play out, so I’m siding simply with activity for now.
Nunes was on a nice run before she ran into Tatiana Suarez, but that fight was nearly two years ago now, and as much as I believe her experience could be a factor here, I’m not sure she can walk back into the Octagon and grab up a victory against a skilled and improving fighter like Dern without a get-right fight in there first. She could certainly prove me wrong, but I just don't think that’s what is going to happen.
While I do think Nunes will use an assortment of kicks to try to keep Dern at range, the world-class jiu jitsu player has shown that she doesn’t need to get the fight to the canvas in order to be effective, as she’s continued working on her hands with Jason Parillo and isn’t afraid to mix it up on the feet. Although I don’t favor her in a 15-minute striking battle with the more polished, more seasoned Nunes, I do think the pop she carries and her willingness to trade will create opportunities for her to get inside, work in the clinch, and eventually get this to the canvas where she can dominate.
Dern’s grappling pedigree always made her an intriguing prospect, but what has taken her to the next level is the development she’s shown over the last year, and between her steady improvements and Nunes stepping back into the cage for the first time in almost two years, I believe we’ll see the 28-year-old emerging star get the biggest win of her career this weekend.
Prediction: Mackenzie Dern by unanimous decision
Mike Perry vs. Daniel Rodriguez
The main card should get off to an electric start with these two welterweight hammer-throwers mixing things up in the opener.
Rodriguez had a great start to his rookie campaign in 2020, winning three straight before running dropping a decision to Nicolas Dalby in November, while Perry continued to be himself, beating an overmatched Mickey Gall before turning up over-weight and getting out-worked by Tim Means at UFC 255.
Since his back-to-back knockout wins over Jake Ellenberger and Alex Reyes in 2017, “Platinum” is 3-6 inside the Octagon… and yet I’m still picking him to win here.
As much as this goes against my general “don’t pick Mike Perry” belief system, I actually like that he’s done his training camp with the MMA Masters crew this time around and think that he has the power and tenacity needed to wear down Rodriguez and put him away.
Perry has gotten too many opportunities for a guy that is a middling fighter and has some maddening moments outside the cage, but he’s mixed it up with much better talent over the years, has absolutely zero quit in him, and is rugged enough to take the best Rodriguez has to offer and return fire every single time.
Eventually, he lands something that “D-Rod” can’t deal with and gets the victory.
Prediction: Mike Perry by TKO
Preliminary Card Picks
Joe Solecki def. Jim Miller
Mateusz Gamrot def. Scott Holtzman
Ignacio Bahamondes def. John Makdessi
Yorgan De Castro def. Jarjis Danho
Jack Shore def. Hunter Azure
Luis Saldana def. Jordan Griffin
William Knight def. Da Un Jung
Sasha Palatnikov def. Impa Kasanganay
2021 PDP Record: 70-53-1, 2 NC (.556)