Punch Drunk Predictions: UFC Vegas 22
Will Derek Brunson turn back another upstart or will Kevin Holland continue his incredible ascent up the middleweight ranks?
It’s been a weird couple of weeks in terms of picking fights and the final outcomes, as three weeks ago featured the first draw of the year, UFC 259 delivered a disqualification loss two weeks ago, and last weekend’s show featured not one, but two No Contest verdicts.
The upside is that the overall results have been positive — 21 wins against 37 total fights — to get things moving in the right direction again, getting the percentage up over .500 and climbing.
And now that it’s going comparatively well, here’s a highly competitive, low-key fight card stacked with tough fights to pick that could produce a positive result — 8-3 would be nice, 9-2 would be great — but could also go the opposite way in a hurry if these reads are bad and things break against my expectation on Saturday night.
Which is why I love sitting here writing this piece, looking forward to the action getting underway tomorrow evening.
As much as I want to get things right, chase that .700 winning percentage, and give you great insights and picks, I also love the chaos and embrace the excitement of sitting down every weekend to see how things play out.
Here’s how I think things will go.
These are the Punch Drunk Predictions for UFC Vegas 22.
Derek Brunson vs. Kevin Holland
This is one of those perfect matchups where every element of it just fits beautifully.
Brunson is the perennial litmus test for guys like Holland, and Holland went on an absolute tear last year, winning five fights in seven months capped by a ridiculous knockout from his knees against “Jacare,” which makes this the exact time that he should be taking “The DBT” to see if he’s ready to really run with the big boys in the middleweight division.
Given how great he looked last year, it’s tempting to just roll with Holland, who looks the part of the emerging talent on that steady, unstoppable climb to title contention, however I’m going the other way for a couple reasons.
First, Holland struggled against Darren Stewart, the only experienced fighter he faced during his run prior to beating Souza in spectacular fashion.
Second, he’s a bit of a slow starter, and Brunson comes out of the corner looking to end things in a hurry.
Third, Derek Brunson is really, really good.
It’s not that I don’t think Holland is capable of winning this fight or being a Top 7 middleweight, I just think that his momentum and buzz has gotten a little bigger than his actual accomplishments and people are overlooking the totality of what Brunson has accomplished because Holland spits better game.
While I don’t think it will be as lopsided and ugly as Brunson’s win over Edmen Shahbazyan last summer, I do think the veteran gets in done inside the distance.
Prediction: Derek Brunson by TKO
Gregor Gillespie vs. Brad Riddell
This is one of those fights where I have to just turn off the little voice in my head that raises a ton of questions about Gillespie because I know they’re just minor points of skepticism designed to make me second-guess my natural inclination to side with “The Gift.”
At the end of the day, the layoff isn’t that big of a deal and I really liked his stance on why getting over his first career loss — and losing the way he did — was relatively easy, plus, he has massive advantage in the grappling department and this is a matchup where I think he can ride that edge to victory.
Riddell has looked good, but not great in each of his three UFC appearances thus far, but he’s facing a different kind of problem on Saturday night than he’s faced to date, and I don’t think he can deal with it. He may stuff the initial entry, but Gillespie is unrelenting and will just chain together attempts, making little adjustments until he puts him on the deck.
I don’t believe we’ll see a finish, but this should be a one-sided win for the returning Gillespie.
Prediction: Gregor Gillespie by unanimous decision
Cheyanne Buys vs. Montserrat “Conejo” Ruiz
I’m going with my gut on this one because neither woman has had much top end experience yet, so there isn’t a lot of tape to build a real strong opinion from.
In situations like this, I tend to side with the person who has the more elements I can point to working in their favor, and in this case, that’s Buys because I know she can go three hard rounds at a good clip, I know she trains with a tremendous team, and I have to believe that her defensive wrestling and grappling is on point given her husband’s background and the quality talent around her at Fortis MMA.
As much as I want to give Ruiz a ton of credit for her win over Janaisa Morandin, I think my opinion of the Brazilian is inflated by who she’s shared the cage with, rather than paying more attention to the fact that she went 0-3 against those quality opponents before losing to Ruiz as well.
I’ve seen Buys’ tenacity and drive in action and I believe it will be enough to carry the day.
Prediction: Cheyanne Buys by unanimous decision
Adrian Yanez vs. Gustavo Lopez
It always make me laugh a little when someone drops the “Who’s he fought?” line about their opponent and the best names on their own resume are all the people that beat them.
Lopez pulled this move earlier in the week when downplaying Yanez’ hype and while I love the moxie, a quick scan of his resume shows his best win came against either Jose Alday or Joey Roquet, two solid, but unspectacular fighters under the Combate Americas banner. He’s fought bigger names, but landed on the wrong side of the results against both of them, and as good as he looked against Anthony Birchak last time out, I’m not sure I’d be peacocking after putting away Birchak on short notice.
Yanez has lost to the top competition he’s faced as well, but I’ll take a narrow defeat to Miles Johns the day after his 25th birthday and the back-to-back blistering finishes he delivered last year than anything I’ve seen out of the 31-year-old Lopez thus far.
Maybe the Xtreme Couture representative proves me wrong, but I’ll side with the younger, more explosive fighter to get the job done here and silence the boisterous veteran.
Prediction: Adrian Yanez by TKO
Song Kenan vs. Max Griffin
Song has done very well for himself in putting together four wins in five UFC appearances, but he’s faced mostly lower tier talent and the one experienced UFC competitor he face, Alex Morono, beat him handily.
Last time out, Griffin looked outstanding in literally beating the ear off Ramiz Brahimaj’s face, and while I don’t think we’re going to see any pieces of Song’s person nearly falling off, I do believe Griffin will have a similarly dominant showing on Saturday.
Griffin is a very solid all-around talent walking around with a record that is below .500 in the Octagon, and that trips people up at times. Look at the quality of competition he’s faced and some of the guys he’s beaten, and you’ll see that all of them are higher caliber than anyone Song has beaten to date.
I anticipate a second straight “best performance of his career” from “Max Pain” this weekend.
Prediction: Max Griffin by TKO
Tai Tuivasa vs. Harry Hunsacker
I’ll keep this brief: Tai Tuivasa has beaten Andrei Arlovski and pummelled Stefan Struve last time out; he ain’t having any problems getting Harry Hunsacker out of there in a hurry.
“Shoeys” all around on Saturday night!
Prediction: Tai Tuivasa by TKO
Preliminary Card Predictions
Macy Chiasson def. Marion Reneau
Grant Dawson def. Leo Santos
Trevin Giles def. Roman Dolidze
Montel Jackson def. Jesse Strader
JP Buys def. Bruno Silva
2021 PDP Record: 56-47-1, 2 NC (.528)
Enjoy the fights!