Punch Drunk Predictions: UFC Vegas 32
Will Cory Sandhagen keep rolling or can TJ Dillashaw return to the Octagon and the win column this weekend?
Saturday’s fight card may have taken a late hit with the unfortunate removal of the bantamweight co-main event between Aspen Ladd and Macy Chiasson, but this card is still chock full of talent and rich with compelling matchups and stories that I can’t wait to see play out.
Obviously the main event has garnered the lion’s share of the attention throughout the buildup to this show, and rightfully so, but it’s heartening to see how many people in the MMA Twitter space are genuinely pumped for some of the other fights on this card and to see some of the less established competitors make the walk this weekend.
“The People’s Main Event” (registered trademark of The Ariel Helwani Corp.) between Adrian Yanez and Randy Costa got bumped to the main card simply through social media interest.
I’ve had conversations about Kyler Phillips, who was an unheralded underdog heading into his last fight.
Folks genuinely dig the “Highlander battles,” as I’ve taken to calling them, at flyweight and middleweight.
This card has something for everybody and it should still be electric.
How do I think things shake out?
Keep reading — this is the UFC Vegas 32 edition of the Punch Drunk Predictions.
Cory Sandhagen vs. TJ Dillashaw
This comes down to the layoff for me because I think timing is a critical factor in every matchup and doubly so in a bout against a guy like Sandhagen, who comes out of the back ready to start firing from Jump Street.
Dillashaw will be in great shape, he’ll be prepared, and he is, in my opinion, still an elite bantamweight until his performances show me otherwise, but there is a difference between going hard rounds with training partners in preparation for your return and getting right into the swing of things as someone like Sandhagen is flicking out long jabs and kicks, trying to rope you into a counter you didn’t see coming.
I wouldn’t be at all surprised if Dillashaw came out and proved me wrong — if he looked every bit as quick and nimble as he did before his hiatus, mixing strikes in unique combinations from different setups before leaning on his wrestling to drag this into the later rounds in hopes of exhausting Sandhagen.
But until I see it, I have to side with the guy that I know is locked in and firing on all cylinders at the moment, looking every bit like a future champion.
Prediction: Cory Sandhagen by TKO
Kyler Phillips vs. Raulivan Paiva
If you want to know why athletes put themselves through the often torturous process of cutting weight, look no further than Paiva.
At flyweight, his height and reach made him an outlier and gave him an edge, an advantage he could potentially exploit against shorter opponents. But after missing weight in his last official appearance and not making to the scale for the fight after that, the Brazilian now resides at bantamweight, where he’s no longer taller, longer, rangier than the majority of his opponents. Those advantages are gone and he instantly goes from being an intriguing ranked fighter to just another guy in the 135-pound weight class.
Phillips should dominate here and I expect a performance that is the pumped up version of what he showed against Song Yadong earlier this year. That was a tough fight and Phillips needed to pick his spots and be careful, as Song is a legit Top 15 talent with good power and zero quit. This is a downgrade from that matchup and as such, I think we see Phillips get a little more flowy, a little more aggressive with his offence and really chase a finish.
I’m not sure he’ll get one because Paiva isn’t one to go away easily, but “The Matrix” should get put forth a dominant showing in securing another victory on Saturday night.
Prediction: Kyler Phillips by unanimous decision
Darren Elkins vs. Darrick Minner
I love this fight because it’s two junkyard dogs getting after the same bone and it should be scrambly and grimy and bloody and gritty and all kinds of fun.
Elkins has said he was probably gonna call it if he didn’t get the win last time out, and that would have been a real blow because this dude is the quintessential fighter you need in every division and after a dozen years of knowing what I’m getting every time “The Damage” steps into the Octagon, I wouldn’t know what to do with myself if he didn’t bleed all over the Octagon two or three times a year, getting the hell kicked out of him early before making a furious rally down the stretch.
Minner is one of those guys that if he’s going to catch you, he’s going to catch you early, and if he doesn’t, all bets are off. While he’s had success in each of his last two outings and has been solid over his last five, I like the way Elkins matches up with him and believe the veteran, who is damn-near impossible to put away, should be able to grind out a win in typical Darren Elkins fashion this weekend.
Prediction: Darren Elkins by unanimous decision
Miranda Maverick vs. Maycee Barber
I think Miranda Maverick rolls here; like comes out, dominates, and finishes things early.
As solid as Barber looked in those early days of her UFC career, she hasn’t evolved beyond that point and it has cost her. Some of that, in my opinion, is because she’s bounced from camp-to-camp following each fight, rather than settling in somewhere, building a long-term relationship with a coaching staff and training partners that can help you improve, and just drilling the ever-loving Christ out of all the things she needs to improve.
Conversely, Maverick is someone that knows what she does well, trusts herself and her skills, and knows how to execute inside the Octagon. We saw it with the adjustments she made mid-round of her debut, and again last time in her ability to routinely navigate tricky spots against Gillian Robertson.
I really believe she can go out there on Saturday and bully Barber — get in her face, back her up with crisp striking, put her on the deck, and get her out of there with a submission, all before the first round ends.
Prediction: Miranda Maverick by submission
Adrian Yanez vs. Randy Costa
I think Randy Costa is going to have a lengthy career as an entertaining, all-action, “kill or be killed” fighter in the bantamweight division, rising to somewhere in the 18-25 range in the division, maybe going on a little run that gets him into the Top 15 for a piece, but ultimately settling into a very Joe Lauzon-like career, which is a great career.
I think Adrian Yanez is going to be a contender, and I think he’s going to stop Costa in relatively quick fashion this weekend.
The striking we’ve seen from Yanez thus far, both as the aggressor and as a counter-fighter, has been outstanding, and while Costa certainly has power in his strikes, I believe the tight fundamentals, more developed and sophisticated striking of Yanez will win out.
I’m interested to see if their friendliness throughout the build to this fight makes either of them a little hesitant early on or whether it sends them out there all fired up and ready to put on a show, but no matter how it starts, I believe it will end with another Yanez stoppage victory on Saturday.
Prediction: Adrian Yanez by TKO
Preliminary Card Picks
Punahele Soriano def. Brendan Allen
Nassourdine Imavov def. Ian Heinisch
Jordan Williams def. Mickey Gall
Julio Arce def. Andre Ewell
Siraja Eubanks def. Elise Reed
Diana Belbita def. Hannah Goldy
2021 PDP Record: 155-118-2, 4 NC (.556)