Punch Drunk Predictions: UFC Vegas 56

Volkov or Rozenstruik? Ige or Evloev? Who will get their hand raised in victory on Saturday in Las Vegas?

Five months into the year and I’m hitting at exactly 65% with my predictions.

I’ll take it.

While I absolutely will continue striving to finish the year at 70% and genuinely try to get all my picks right every week, I also take great pride in the fact that in a sport where so many things can happen that dictate the outcome of the fight, I’m able to select the eventual winner far more often than not. I don’t know how that stacks up against the folks that take this even more seriously than me — not that I don’t take it seriously — but I think it’s a pretty solid clip and one I’m pleased with through the first 206 UFC fights of the year.

This weekend’s event is one of those shows where I’m fairly confident that I have a strong read on how a number of these fights will play out, but there are still one or two that make me a little nervous, either because it’s a big step up for one party or it involves a gigantic question mark of a fighter.

But trying to figure those fights out is what makes this fun.

Let’s go!

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Alexander Volkov vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik

I can certainly see a path to victory for Rozenstruik, as he has power in his hands and can, at times, be an aggressive, attacking fighter. That being said, we haven’t seen that from him in his toughest matchups and over five rounds, I think Volkov will prove to be too much.

For whatever Volkov is not, he’s long, he’s active, and he’s got strong conditioning, and I think those three elements combine to lead him to victory.

This feels like a fight where the Russian veteran will be able to use long-range attacks, including a bevy of kicks, to keep Rozenstruik on the outside, allowing him to avoid the big swings that can be problematic to his health if they land. Volkov may only have a two-inch reach advantage in terms of their arms, but “he’s a big tree” as Rozenstruik called him when we spoke last week, and he’ll use those long legs to land kicks to all levels and batter “Bigi Boy” from a distance.

Between the diversity of his attacks, his ability to keep this fight at range, and his superior conditioning and output, I think Volkov pulls away in the later rounds to earn the main event victory.

Prediction: Alexander Volkov

Dan Ige vs. Movsar Evloev

This was easily the hardest fight for me to pick, because I love what Ige brings to the table, both in terms of skills and intangibles, but Evloev has looked like a next-level guy to me for some time.

I’m siding with the emerging fighter because there are just more ways for him to score points and be effective in this fight. While I don’t think standing with Ige is the best course of action, Evloev is comfortable throwing hands and can find some success there. But he can also wrestle and grapple, and I think there will be opportunities for him to work in the clinch along the fence, drag this to the canvas, and potentially submission hunt.

Ige can crack and I would not be at all surprised if he rattled Evloev a time or two, or if he finished in one of those instances. However, this feels like one of those instances where the Russian has a little more to offer overall and should be able to secure the victory.

Prediction: Movsar Evloev

Michael Trizano vs. Lucas Almeida

This is a fight Trizano should win.

Almeida is a DWCS alum who showed some grit against Daniel Zellhuber in a losing effort, but he’s mostly just a guy and as long as Trizano comes out looking to work at a good clip and mixing up his attacks, he should be able to get the job done here.

Pace and activity are the keys for the TUF 27 lightweight winner — he needs to throw more and constantly be working forward, not allowing Almeida to dictate where the fight is contested like he did against Hakeem Dawodu, where he connected with more than 50% of his strikes, but simply wasn’t throwing enough to keep the Calgary native from firing back and controlling the exchanges. He also has to wrestle more, or at least threaten to wrestle more, because it’s a solid part of his game and it keeps him from being one dimensional.

Historically speaking, these are the types of fights that Trizano wins, and I think history will repeat itself again this weekend.

Prediction: Michael Trizano

Poliana Botelho vs. Karine Silva

Watching Silva’s win on DWCS back this morning, I can’t in good conscious pick her to win this fight; not because I think Botelho is some kind of terrific fighter, but she’s proven herself to be superior to Silva from what I’ve seen.

Silva spent a good portion of the first round on bottom, and while she was active with a rubber guard and short punches, she wasn’t close on anything, and looked spent early in the second before finding a guillotine choke gift-wrapped in front of her. Botelho won’t make those basic mistakes and has shown that against better competition than Silva already, plus she’s actually proven herself capable of winning fights in the UFC.

This is another one of those instances from the start of the year where I was real leery about backing members of the DWCS Class of ‘21 because many of them have very limited experience, and Silva is one of those fighters. Unless she’s improved by leaps and bounds since the end of October, I think Botelho should be able to secure a victory on Saturday.

Prediction: Poliana Botelho

Zarrukh Adashev vs. Ode’ Osbourne

Speed is a key variable in a lot of fights, and I think it really stands out even more in a division like flyweight, where everyone is pretty quick, but a noticeable gap between two competitors can be a critical factor in determining the outcome of a fight.

I think we’ll see that here.

Osbourne is lightning quick and Adashev is a little heavier afoot than his flyweight counterparts, and I think the DWCS grad will be able to exploit that speed difference early and often to land good shots and put himself in a position to secure another victory. Osbourne is more of an opportunistic finisher than a “create finishing opportunities” guy (if that makes sense), so I’m no sure he’ll be able to get it done inside the distance, but he throws and lands at a better clip than Adashev, has a little bit of a grappling game he can get into if need be, and profiles as the deserving favourite and likely victor.

Prediction: Ode’ Osbourne

Alonzo Menifield vs. Askar Mozharov

While the news and developments surrounding Mozharov and his continually worsening record is intriguing to follow, the fact of the matter is that this dude is going to get smashed on Saturday, and I’m not just saying that because I’m the lone remaining resident on Zo Island.

Menifield has legitimate UFC victories, real power, and trains with a great team. Mozharov hasn’t fought in 19 months, has a resume littered with suspect results, and, honestly, is the spitting image of someone that tells you they’re a fighter and wears all the gear, but has never competed beyond the lowest levels, all while being quick to explain how it was a big conspiracy to keep him down because he’s too good.

Early pressure, early finish for Menifield, and then we can all be done with Mozharov.

Prediction: Alonzo Menifield

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Preliminary Card Picks

Felice Herrig def. Karolina Kowalkiewicz
Joe Solecki def. Alex da Silva
Damon Jackson def. Dan Argueta
Benoit Saint Denis def. Niklas Stolze
Tony Gravely def. Johnny Munoz Jr.
Jeff Molina def. Zhalgas Zhumagulov
Rinat Fakhretdinov def. Andreas Michailidis
Erin Blanchfield def. JJ Aldrich

2022 PDP Record: 134-72-0 (.650)