Punch Drunk Predictions: UFC Vegas 27
After three rough weeks, it's time to get out of this funk and start giving you some quality insights again
Things haven’t completely gone off the rails because there haven’t been any “didn’t get any right” events, but it’s been a struggle over the last three shows, in part because of awesome matchmaking and competitive fights, but also in part because I took a couple risks with a couple picks that raced beyond “got this one wrong” and landing in “that turned out terribly” territory.
Yes, I’m talking about my pick of Tony Ferguson over Beneil Dariush last week, which I knew was the incorrect selection about 18 seconds into that fight, which is a real shitty feeling.
But as I’ve kept saying over the course of this three-event slide, poor results aren’t ever going to get me too down and they’re never going to make me want to stop doing this because (a) I enjoy it too much, (b) I know I’m actually better at it than my record for the year indicates, and (c) I’m super-stubborn and not working to prove Point B is literally the worst thing imaginable to me, so yeah, we’re still doing this.
Saturday’s card is a little less coin-flip than UFC 262, where the biggest favourite (Gina Mazany) was -200 or -300 and got beaten, but it’s still a competitive fight card with a couple “not really sure how this is going to shake out” matchups that will either be wins that elevate my overall total for the week or losses that turn this into another ugly evening.
Either way, this should be fun.
These are the Punch Drunk Predictions for UFC Vegas 27
Rob Font vs. Cody Garbrandt
This one feels like it’s going to go one of two ways:
Font wins by staying technical, using his reach advantage, sniping at Garbrandt from range, either winning a wide decision or finishing him when Garbrandt makes a mistake
Garbrandt bangs home a power hook in the midst of an early exchange, hurting Font and getting the finish
There are other possibilities, obviously, but I just don’t really see Garbrandt winning a five-round decision by fighting patiently, picking his spots, and staying mobile; it’s just not what we’re seen from him outside of his championship fight with Dominick Cruz, and even there, he was still trying to find that kill shot. Font is a finisher, but he’s not a “land that one single shot” finisher; he’s much more of a sting you, piling up the punishment, and capitalize when your health meter is low kind of guy.
Every time I think about this fight, I come back to Option 1, not because I don’t think Garbrandt is capable of making Option 2 happen, but because his aggressive approach coupled with the way he can get drawn into chasing, rushing, reaching makes me believe that Font will stick-and-move, popping out the jab and authoring a “death by a thousand cuts” performance.
If he’s going to get a finish, my feeling is it will be later in the fight, but given how good he looked against Marlon Moraes, a quicker finish isn’t out of the question.
Prediction: Rob Font by unanimous decision
Yan Xiaonan vs. Carla Esparza
The general sentiment is that this is a “striker vs. grappler” contest where Yan wins if she can keep it standing and Esparza wins if she can keep this fight on the canvas for long stretches. In terms of a basic assessment, sure, it works, but I also think it downplays the totality of what Yan brings to the table.
While she is very much a volume striker and uses her pace and pressure as a quality weapon, she also put Karolina Kowalkiewicz on the deck five times in their fight and handily won a decision against Claudia Gadelha in a bout where the Brazilian took her down a couple times. Additionally, Gadelha was 2-for-10 with her takedowns, so banking on Esparza, who is a low-percentage takedown artist, turning this into a ground battle is a great idea in theory, but maybe not application.
Esparza feels like a fighter competing in the wrong generation now — she was successful earlier in her career when her strength was such a major outlier strength, and she exploited it, made the most of it, and had a great deal of success as a result. But everyone’s takedown defence is considerably better now, her wrestling has never been about athleticism and explosiveness, and now we’re seeing more and more competitors giving her fits by being able to stuff takedowns and force her to strike.
That’s how I think this one plays out: Yan thwarts Esparza’s naked shots, picks her apart on the feet, and wins a clean, clear decision to secure her seventh consecutive UFC victory.
Prediction: Yan Xiaonan by unanimous decision
Justin Tafa vs. Jared Vanderaa
Someone is getting knocked out, and as long as Justin Tafa doesn’t make the same mistake he made in his debut, where he rushed in a little too loose and got popped, that someone is going to be Jared Vanderaa.
Listen, I though Tafa beat Carlos Felipe last time out and wasn’t particularly high on Vanderaa coming off the Contender Series, so when you combine that with the fact that he got mauled by Serghei Spivac last time out, I have a difficult time forecasting a path to victory for him here. Can he land a bomb that creates a finish or an opening to finish? Of course, these are heavyweights, but I think we’re more likely to see Tafa stinging him in an early exchange and securing the finish than anything else.
Prediction: Justin Tafa by TKO
Felicia Spencer vs. Norma Dumont
Is Spencer fighting a luminary of the sport?
No?
Then she’s going to win, and probably pretty handily.
While I’m doing a little bit of a reductio ad absurdum bit here based on Spencer’s track record in the UFC and her career overall, it’s also factually correct because Spencer has only lost twice — once to Cris Cyborg, once to Amanda Nunes — and since Dumont is not even close to that level, I can’t see the Canadian having much difficulty getting it done here.
Dumont is undersized for the division, but was banished to featherweight after missing the mark at bantamweight a couple different times, and as we saw in her debut against Megan Anderson, it’s really hard for inexperienced, undersized fighters to contend with actual real life featherweights that have legitimate skill.
Even though the Brazilian comes from a Sanda background and therefore should be a little better at keeping things standing, I believe Spencer will get this to the ground and find a finish once she’s there, either lacing up a rear-naked choke or pounding out a victory from some variation of mount.
Prediction: Felicia Spencer by submission
David Dvorak vs. Juancamilo Ronderos
Originally slated to be a matchup between Top 15 flyweights David Dvorak and Raulian Paiva, the Brazilian was pulled from the card on Friday morning after being taken to the hospital as a result of a brutal weight cut, opening the door for Juancamilo Ronderos to make his short-notice promotional debut. The Las Vegas-based 26-year-old is a perfect 4-0 in his career and earned a win over UFC vet Eric Shelton last time out, but that was December 2019.
Listen, I think it’s great the UFC found someone so quickly in order to keep Dvorak on the card, and Ronderos works with a great crew at Xtreme Couture and will surely be prepared to the best of his abilities on Saturday night, but you’re not going from just being in the gym to beating a ranked flyweight — and one with Top 5 potential in my opinion — on 36 hours notice. If he does, I’ll eat my hat.
Dvorak cruised behind the smooth, technical boxing he would have beaten Paiva with as well.
Prediction: David Dvorak by unanimous decision
Jack Hermansson vs. Edmen Shahbazyan
This is the one I’ve had the most trouble with because Jack Hermansson is a wily son-of-a-gun and Edmen Shahbazyan is coming back off the first loss of his career, and it was a bad loss, and those things can be hard to shake at times, especially when you’re jumping right back into the deep end. I commend him for doing so, no doubt, but it’s also a real easy way to go from “has only lost once” to “on a two-fight skid” in a maximum of 15 minutes.
Honestly, it feels like whoever I pick, the other one is going to win; that’s just the way things have been shaking out of late.
I’m going with Shahbazyan and here’s why: as much as he hit the wall and then got bullied by Derek Brunson last time out, I can’t just allow that effort to wash out what he’d done before that, which was win three straight by first-round stoppage, including knocking out the ultra-tough, ultra-durable Brad Tavares.
While I think a lot of people, including Hermansson, think Shahbazyan is this striker that is easy to take down, those numbers are skewed because Brunson landed four takedowns last time out and no one else got a chance in his previous three outings. On top of that, the Armenian-American actually has some solid wrestling of his own, and I genuinely wouldn’t be surprised if we saw him try to emulate what Marvin Vettori did to Hermansson back in December.
There are ways this could go sideways for Shahbazyan and I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if Hermansson came away with the win, but I think the 23-year-old is a special talent, and he’ll have grown since that loss, allowing him to get back in the win column with the best performance of his career on Saturday.
Prediction: Edmen Shahbazyan by TKO
Preliminary Card Picks
Bill Algeo def. Ricardo Ramos
Ben Rothwell def. Chris Barnett
Court McGee def. Claudio Silva
Bruno Silva def. Victor Rodriguez
Josh Culibao def. Shayilan
Yancy Medeiros def. Damir Hadzovic
Damir Ismagulov def. Rafael Alves
2021 PDP Record: 108-81-2, 2 NC (.560)