Punch Drunk Predictions: UFC Vegas 21
Will Leon Edwards have a triumphant return or will Belal Muhammad make the absolute most of his short-notice opportunity?
I know I say it a lot, but I really do feel like this is going to be one of those cards we look back on in 12-18 months and think, “Oh, that’s where (insert fighter here) really started their run” as said athlete closes in on contention or has a transcendent moment inside the Octagon.
The main event will have immediate ramifications on the welterweight title picture, the co-main event will propel the victor into the thick of the chase in the seemingly wide-open division, and the featherweight clash sitting third from the top features a Top 10 talent against an intriguing upstart in one of the most talent-rich divisions in the sport.
And then there are still crucial contests at bantamweight, flyweight and strawweight, plus a couple additional “You’ve got to show me something” matchup scattered throughout the call sheet.
I’ve heard this weekend’s event described as “an okay card” and not to go all Lieutenant Commander JoAnne Galloway on everyone but I “strenuously object” to that classification.
Blaydes vs. Lewis was “an okay card.” Next month’s event headlined by Robert Whittaker and Paulo Costa currently looks like it will end up being “an okay card.”
This is a terrific collection of compelling, intriguing matchups that should produce a ton of action and if you disagree, well then I think it just means that you can’t handle the truth.
How good is A Few Good Men, right?
Here are the UFC Vegas 21 Punch Drunk Predictions
Leon Edwards vs. Belal Muhammad
The big question with this one is whether Edwards’ extended layoff is going to be a major factor, especially against someone who does a great job of weaponizing pace like Muhammad?
As much as I love what the upstart brings to the table and his eagerness to jump at this opportunity, I don’t believe the layoff is going to be that big of a factor for Edwards and that we’ll see the Jamaican-born welterweight prove once again that he’s deserving of a championship opportunity.
The challenge for Muhammad is that there isn’t anything he does at a high enough level that is going to really threaten the welterweight elite — he’s a good striker, but not a great striker; he’s a good wrestler, but not a great wrestler — and when there isn’t one element a well-rounded, highly skilled fighter has to really worry about, it comes down to whether they can handle the pace or not and we’ve seen Edwards put forth high-volume efforts over 25 minutes in the past.
Now, he took the lead in those dances and his road to eight straight wins hasn’t been without a few bumps, but on the whole, he’s the more skilled, more complete fighter in my books and that should carry him to victory here.
I do think this is going to be a competitive fight because Muhammad is tough as nails and won’t stop pressing forward, but as long as Edwards is fit and his gas tank holds up, I think he should be able to outwork Muhammad on the feet and earn a victory on the scorecards.
Prediction: Leon Edwards by unanimous decision
Misha Cirkunov vs. Ryan Spann
The only thing I know about this fight with any certainty is that it isn’t going to go beyond the first round, because win or lose, Cirkunov doesn’t like spending more than five minutes in the Octagon and Spann is more than capable of obliging the Latvian-Canadian’s desire to get things done quickly.
This is such a difficult fight for me to pick because when you really dig into each man’s UFC resume, there are good moments, bad moments, and a lot of “how much do I really want to read into that?” moments that leave me feeling like this is pretty close to a coin flip.
Cirkunov is an absolute brute of a human being inside the Octagon and his submission game is top notch, however he’s really struggled with taking big shots from big dudes and Spann is a legitimate big dude with legitimate big dude power, plus, he has the wrestling and submission skills needed to really make Cirkunov work should they end up in the clinch or on the ground.
Spann got a little out in front of his skis last time out against Johnny Walker, casting fundamentals and patience aside once he had the lanky Brazilian on roller skates, and it ended up costing him, but the positives that came before the finish are what have me leaning in his direction here.
The Fortis MMA product feels like one of those guys that hasn’t quite figured out or accepted that he really has a great deal of the skills and abilities you need to excel in this sport, but he’s got Sayif Saud coaching him up and pointing him in that direction, and I think we see him take a step forward on Saturday night.
If he stays within himself and fights to his full abilities, I believe we’ll see a breakout performance from “Superman” here.
Prediction: Ryan Spann by TKO
Dan Ige vs. Gavin Tucker
In terms of whom they’ve faced over the last couple years, this is a considerable step up in competition for Tucker, as Ige has faced Top 15 opponents in each of his last three outings, while the Canadian is coming off 2020 wins over Justin Jaynes and Billy Quarantillo. That’s not to say Tucker isn’t capable of hanging with Ige and others in the Top 10, Top 15 — it’s just that we haven’t seen it yet, which is why this fight is so intriguing to me.
As much as this has the potential to be a back-and-forth boxing match, I think the real deciding point could end up being whether or not Ige wants to try and wrestle Tucker to the canvas and use his grappling because as much as he’s kept things standing and traded with each of his last four opponents, the Hawaiian is an excellent grappler and that could be a path to victory for him here.
If it remains a boxing match, I actually think Tucker is the more technical of the two, but he’s got a slight reach disadvantage to make up, which means he’s going to need to be the one leading the dance and wading into the fire. Again, not that he can’t do it, but it’s just an element to consider.
The deciding factor in this for me though is that whether you agree with the verdicts in the Mirsad Bektic and Edson Barboza fights or not, Ige has been in there and shown he can hang with some very good fighters of late, and Tucker just hasn’t. This is his opportunity to prove that he’s on the same level as someone like Ige and earn a place in the Top 15, but until I see it, I have to side with the more proven commodity, even when it means picking against a fellow Canadian.
Prediction: Dan Ige by unanimous decision
Jonathan Martinez vs. Davey Grant
As much as Davey Grant is one of my all-time favorite good dudes and his unwavering perseverance is motivating, this is a bad matchup and I think it is going to end horribly for him.
Martinez is quietly becoming someone to keep tabs on in the bantamweight division, as he should be heading into this weekend’s contest on a five-fight winning streak, which would probably mean he would be facing someone further up the food chain than the 35-year-old Grant, which is one of those things that seems to be getting overlooked in this overlooked pairing.
The 26-year-old Texan, who trains with Marc Montoya at Factory X Muay Thai, has a massive reach advantage, plus he’s shown improved confidence and fluidity in his striking, two things that are big positives against someone like Grant who is often willing to eat one to land one.
Even if Martinez wants to be conservative and work from range behind a long jab, he should be able to get it done, but I think the more likely outcome is Grant biting down on his gum shield and running onto something that ends the night once he’s fully frustrated with getting worked over from distance.
Pay attention to “The Dragon” because he’s going to be giving one of your favorite bantamweight upstarts a run for their money in the very near future.
Prediction: Jonathan Martinez by TKO
Matheus Nicolau vs. Manel Kape
I have to think that Kape jumping at the opportunity to get back into the Octagon this quickly after his disappointing debut speaks to the sense of urgency and frustration he feels coming off his loss to Alexandre Pantoja, and that doesn’t bode well for the returning Nicolau, who is a quality fighter in his own right.
The fight with Pantoja just kind of slipped away from Kape, who was too hesitant and threw too little volume early before finally showing a little more aggression in the third. After promising a quick, violent finish, he was too laid back and it cost him, but I think that will also lead to a different approach here.
Between wanting to get the sour taste of defeat out of his mouth and Nicolau coming off a lengthy layoff, I believe we’ll see a more aggressive Kape press forward and secure a finish, providing a little bit of after-the-fact justification for the hype that accompanied him into the Octagon the first time around and setting up some bigger matchups later in the year.
Prediction: Manel Kape by TKO
Eryk Anders vs. Darren Stewart
Middleweights get the main card started in that “You’ve gotta show me something” fight I was alluding to off the top.
Anders has been hit and miss since starting his career with 10 straight wins and a main event assignment opposite Lyoto Machida — which I will still argue he won, BTW — while Stewart has bounced back from an ugly start to his UFC tenure (0-3, 1 NC) to establish himself as a solid, middle-of-the-pack member of the 185-pound weight class. There is nothing wrong with either guy maintaining this form, staying basically in the same places they are now, and grinding out a couple more years being just above or just below .500 while turning in some entertaining fights…
But if they want to move forward in the division, they need to show it here.
I’m siding with Stewart here because I think he has more avenues to victory and, unfair as it may be, I have never been able to shake the fact that Anders was getting thoroughly out-hustled by Tim Williams in their August 2018 fight before hitting a perfectly timed kick in the final 20 seconds to steal the victory.
Stewart has good pop in his hands, a sneaky little guillotine, and we’ve seen him grit his way through tough fights, where as I feel like I’ve seen Anders stall and fade too often to back him.
Prediction: Darren Stewart by unanimous decision
Preliminary Card Picks
Angela Hill def. Ashley Yoder
Charles Jourdain def. Marcelo Rojo
Rani Yahya def. Ray Rodriguez
Nasrat Haqparast def. Rafa Garcia
Cortney Casey def. JJ Aldrich
Gloria de Paula def. Jinh Yu Frey
Jason Witt def. Matthew Semelsberger
2021 PDP Record: 50-42-1 (.538)