Punch Drunk Predictions: UFC Vegas 33
The card has been altered, but we've still got to pick winners
This card was supposed to be better, but sometimes, the MMA gods just have to interfere.
Saturday’s event at the UFC APEX was also supposed to include a heavyweight clash between Top 10 fighters Shamil Abdurakhimov and Chris Daukaus, a likely flyweight title eliminator between Askar Askarov and Alex Perez, a lightweight scrap between Sam Alvey and Roman Kopylov, and bouts involving Dooho Choi and Mounir Lazzez.
If you add those three fights and two names back into the mix, this weekend’s card moves up a couple letter grades; it’s not an A+ show by any means, but it also isn’t coming with a note from the professor that says, “Come speak with me after class” where they talk to you about getting extra help and thinking long and hard about changing your major.
As has been discussed and stated ad nauseam this week, this UFC event isn’t Saturday’s top event (though outside of the headliners, the gap isn’t as drastic as folks tend to imply) and the main event carries amorphous stakes, but we’re still going to find out a little something something about a whole bunch of different fighters and probably get a few terrific scraps and/or finishes along the way.
And at the end of the day, that’s all I’m looking for on a Saturday evening — a little punchy-kicky, a couple “circle that one for later” performances, and a solid night with the selections.
So here they are.
Please enjoy responsibly.
Update: so between the time I started writing this post this morning and when I’m here now to publish it, we lost two more fights, with the bantamweight scraps between Ronnie Lawrence and Trevin Jones getting binned for “health reasons,” and Nicco Montano missing weight by eight pounds for her bout with Wu Yanan, resulting in the fight getting called off.
This card, man…
Uriah Hall vs. Sean Strickland
Strickland has looked really good since coming back — working from a fundamentally sound approach, chirping at guys a little, staying within himself — and he has the ability to do that against just about anyone with reasonable success. I honestly would not be surprised at all to see him work those one-twos, press forward with shots, and just kind of grind down and beat up Hall with the basics for five rounds.
I wouldn’t be surprised, but that’s not what I see happening.
Hall has been pretty good himself as of late and I think there is even more there than we’ve seen. Between being the more active kicker and a terrific counter-striker, I think what we’ll end up seeing is Strickland having success early as Hall gets his range and timing down, but as the low kicks add up and Strickland starts reaching just a little too much, the Fortis MMA product will find an opening an exploit it, securing the finish.
It might be a left hand. It might be a high kick. It might be a spinning attack like the one Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos used to fell Strickland several years ago.
Whatever it is, it’s going to come, it’s going to land, and it’s going to put Strickland down.
Prediction: Uriah Hall by TKO
Kyung Ho Kang vs. Rani Yahya
We’ve seen in recent weeks that extended layoffs are no longer a major factor in determining the outcome of a fight, as Miesha Tate and TJ Dillashaw came back from long absences to secure victories on consecutive weekends. I was siding with Kang initially, and seeing those efforts helped confirm my feeling.
Yahya could certainly catch him with something — the guy is a soaking wet blanket on the canvas and as deft a submission fighter as there is in the division — but he’s also got about seven or eight minutes of gas in his tank, at most, and Kang is a solid scrambler with vastly superior striking skills.
My belief is that Kang will work from range, be super-attentive to his defensive requirements early, and then look to turn it up and seal the deal over the second half of the fight. He has a monster reach advantage, is the far more physical fighter of the two, and as long as he doesn’t get sloppy or overconfident, he should secure his fourth straight victory on Saturday.
Prediction: Kyung Ho Kang by unanimous decision
Cheyanne Buys vs. Gloria de Paula
This is a coin-flip to me.
My natural inclination is to lean Buys because she had a solid stretch at the start of the third round last time out against Montserrat Ruiz, while de Paula only had momentary flashes in the second round of her fight with Jinh Yu Frey, but that might just be because I know more about Buys, interviewed her ahead of this fight, and have convinced myself that she’s the superior striker here.
Watching de Paula’s debut back this morning, I can see her having success here, especially if Buys is too confident, too static in her approach, as the Brazilian has a longer reach, is the quicker of the two, and can do better work in the clinch.
But I actually think we’ll see a little wrestling out of Buys here, as Frey was able to take de Paula down with relative ease in the first and third rounds, keeping her there for long stretches to secure the victory. As longs the Xtreme Couture product keeps things varied, keeps her head moving, I believe we’ll see her mess with de Paula’s timing, get her guessing, and deliver a more complete effort to secure her first UFC win.
Prediction: Cheyanne Buys by unanimous decision
Jared Gooden vs. Niklas Stoltze
Shouts to Gooden for taking this fight on short notice and making weight, but I just don’t think it’s going to work out for him.
Stoltze is by no means the best grappler in the world, but I think he’s more than capable of dragging Gooden to the canvas and either keeping him there or finding a finish. We saw Abubakar Nurmagomedov do it last time out, Gooden has looked a little gun shy in each of his two previous UFC outings, and I can’t see why “Green Mask” wouldn’t just go get on them hips early and often to avoid prolonged periods of trading with this man at range.
I get why Gooden took this fight, but I think the end result is the same as his first two appearances.
Prediction: Niklas Stoltze by submission
Zarrukh Adashev vs. Ryan Benoit
I’m feeling frisky with this one and going to side with Adashev, in part because Benoit never has an easy time making weight and has always struck me as someone who is better in theory and on paper than he is once the cage door closes. He’s still trading off that random win over Sergio Pettis all these years later and I’m not sure we should still be giving him credit for that victory in the year of our Lord 2021.
Adashev isn’t a world-beater, but he looked much better in his sophomore outing against Sumudaerji earlier this year, and if he can have another little improvement this time around, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him out-work Benoit on the feet and secure the win. He’ll need to maintain space and hustle back to his feet if he does get taken down, but again, we haven’t really seen Benoit, who is held out as a quality grappler because of who he trains with, ever really put that into practice.
Writing all these fights up, even I’m starting to lose some of the zeal I had for this event at the start of the week because it could end up being a real slog.
Prediction: Zarrukh Adashev by unanimous decision
Bryan Barberena vs. Jason Witt
Witt is a “kill or be killed” fighter who has been stopped in less than a minute in each of his two UFC losses, most recently getting dropped in 16 seconds by Matthew Semelsberger.
Barberena is a battle-tested caveman (and I mean that in the best way possible) returning from a gnarly emergency surgery late last year, looking to build off a victory over Anthony Ivy.
This to me is all about what we’ve seen from these two in the past and if there is any reason to believe that data is produce something different this time around and the answer for me is, “No — no it will not.”
Barberena has faced superior competition and battled to the bitter end with them more often than naught, going shot-for-shot with Vicente Luque a couple years ago in an early Fight of the Year contender and giving Randy Brown plenty to deal with before eventually getting finished there too. Witt profiles as the Triple-A version of “Bam Bam” to me, but this is the big leagues, and Barberena should come away with a second straight win.
Prediction: Bryan Barberena by TKO
Preliminary Card Picks
Collin Anglin def. Melsik Baghdasaryan
Rafa Garcia def. Chris Gruetzemacher
Danny Chavez def. Kai Kamaka III
Jinh Yu Frey def. Ashley Yoder
Orion Cosce def. Philip Rowe
2021 PDP Record: 161-123-2, 4 NC (.555)