Punch Drunk Predictions: UFC Vegas 26
"Why do we fall, Bruce?"
While a lot of people love to quote the Japanese proverb “Nana korobi, ya oki” (fall down seven times, stand up eight), I’ve always been more partial to Thomas Wayne’s question to his young son Bruce in Christopher Nolan’s Batman Begins.
“Why do we fall, Bruce?” asks the patriarch of Gotham’s most influential family.
“So that we learn to pick ourselves up,” answers the future Dark Knight.
Last week, I fell, registering a 4-6-1 record with my picks to bring my five-event run of momentum to a screeching halt.
It sucked. It stung. It hurt a little, but like the proverb where the math doesn’t quite work right and the father-to-son lessons at Wayne Manor, I’m back on my feet ready to attack another week of predictions, fully cognizant of the fact that by the time the dust settles on Saturday night, I might be on the floor once more.
And if that happens, I’ll pick myself up, dust myself off, and be right back here next Friday.
A back week isn’t going to derail me, and coming up short on my goal for the year won’t deter me from setting the same lofty target for myself next year — and yes, I will be here next year too.
And the year after that.
And the year after that.
And I hope you get the picture.
Good week or bad week, I’ll be here the next week because staying down and scurrying away has never been my style.
Here’s this week’s edition of the Punch Drunk Predictions.
Marina Rodriguez vs. Michelle Waterson
I think the consensus thinking is that where this one takes place will dictate who wins, with Rodriguez being tabbed as a victor if she can keep it standing and Waterson likely to get the nod if she can get it to the ground. While I generally think that’s reasonable, I also think (a) Waterson will struggle to get this fight to the canvas, and (b) Rodriguez is more than capable of winning this fight by striking off her back, which I thought she did in the deciding round of her fight with Carla Esparza.
Ultimately, I don’t think it gets to the canvas for any long stretches though, as Waterson isn’t a particularly dynamic wrestler and has been struggling to get fights to the ground as of late, as Richard Mann pointed out in his outstanding Fight Forecast post this week. Even if she does manage to get Rodriguez down once or twice, I feel like the Brazilian is the much more effective striker and will do enough in the other moments of this fight to win a clear decision, though I will concede that judges seem to like Waterson’s brand of activity and air-punching.
The real key to me is going to be how well Rodriguez utilizes her five-inch reach advantage. If she can keep Waterson on the end of her strikes, she should be able to stick and move, avoiding the hurried charges and desperate attempts to get the fight to the canvas and chip away from the outside, round-after-round until the final horn.
Prediction: Marina Rodriguez by unanimous decision
Donald Cerrone vs. Alex Morono
This one is tough because “Cowboy” hasn’t even looked good in a minute, but he fought a tough slate and went hard in this training camp believing he was preparing to get in a fist-fight with former teammate Diego Sanchez.
Now he’s facing Morono, a game, feisty welterweight that lives in the 20-30 range in the division on short notice, and I’m not sure if the veteran gunslinger will be able to bring the same ferocity he was planning on carrying into the fight with Sanchez into the Octagon for this short-notice, no-stakes fight with “The Great White” on Saturday.
My gut says yes, in part because I talked to Cerrone on Wednesday and he sounded more locked in than he did when we spoke before his last few fights, but also because I’ve seen Morono in there with a guys with a comparable skill set to the 38-year-old WEC alum a handful of times and it hasn’t gone all that well for him.
Now, it’s possible that Cerrone’s abilities have eroded to the point where he’s just not physically capable of getting the job done even against a good, but not great opponent like Morono, and his listless effort against Niko Price last time out makes that a real concern. However, I think the combination of prepping for Sanchez and wanting to get at least one more win under his belt now that he’s got a second son at home will be enough to carry him to victory this weekend.
It’ll probably be more competitive than most would anticipate on name recognition alone, but I think “Cowboy” gets back in the win column.
Prediction: Donald Cerrone by unanimous decision
Neil Magny vs. Geoff Neal
Do I really have to pick one?
I don’t look to beg out of making picks ever, but this is just such a close fight between two guys (and two teams) I have the utmost respect and admiration for that I feel like this is the one and only time I want to say, “I just hope everyone has fun and comes out healthy” and call it a day.
Alas, I’m here to make predictions, so here goes: before I can pick Neal to beat a Top 10 welterweight, I need to see him beat a Top 10 welterweight; not because I don’t think he’s capable, but because I know how goddamn good Neil Magny is and while there is nothing flashy to his game whatsoever, he’s the exact type of polished, fundamentally sound, do-everything-correctly type of dude that can beat all but the absolute best fighters in the division.
Magny knows who he is and what he is, and he also knows how to fight to his strengths, which means footwork, movement, and staying long, as well as wrestling when he needs to, which could be often in this one.
Look: I think Neal is going to be a contender and he could very well make that jump here by knocking out Magny or dominating him for 15 minutes on the feet; I wouldn’t be surprised if that’s how this played out and you shouldn’t be either. But I need to see it happen before I can be completely on board with it.
Prediction: Neil Magny by unanimous decision
Marcos Rogerio de Lima vs. Maurice Greene
I love this tweet from my guy Dan Tom earlier this week because it makes me feel seen:
This is one of those matchups where you can’t feel particularly good picking either man because of the myriad times they’ve let you down in the past. Combined with the fact that both have multiple paths to victory and neither is going to win any awards for their Fight IQ, and you have a situation where siding with either guy feels uncomfortable.
Like Dan, I’m siding with de Lima because he’s a little more experienced, a little more powerful and capable with his striking, and Greene is a giant, upright target that doesn’t use his length well at all and is probably going to get hit with a bungalow on Saturday night.
Like I said, I don’t feel good about it, but I think de Lima gets it done inside the distance.
Prediction: Marcos Rogerio de Lima by TKO
Carlos Diego Ferreira vs. Gregor Gillespie
I had this whole thing written out about how I thought it was wild that Ferreira was the underdog against Gillespie given that he’d been more active, had a style that matched up well with “The Gift” and that his loss to Beneil Dariush earlier this year likely lit a fire under his ass…
And then Ferreira missed weight by a healthy margin and I threw that write-up in the trash.
I now believe Gillespie is going to win this fight handily because you can’t show a guy that always operates at a high pace, with a takedown-heavy game plan that you struggled with your weight cut and expect him to not be in your face, in on your hips, all up in your business from the jump on Saturday night and think you’re going to survive. He won’t let you because you didn’t hold up your end of the bargain and he did and now you have to pay for being undisciplined and missing weight.
This is just how it is, especially with wrestlers.
Gillespie in a route.
Prediction: Gregor Gillespie by unanimous decision
Amanda Ribas vs. Angela Hill
Fact 1: How you did against one fighter with a particular set of skills is not necessarily a predictor of how things will go the next time you face someone with a comparable set of skills.
Fact 2: Angela Hill got submitted by Randa Markos.
As much as I know Fact 1 to be true and valid and legit, I also know the same about Fact 2 and I just don’t see how Hill avoids a comparable fate against Ribas on Saturday, as the Brazilian is a significantly better grappler than Markos and should, in theory, be a little tighter with her striking defence and aggressive with his grappling after getting blasted and stopped by Rodriguez last time out.
Hill has made a ton of improvements since landing on TUF 20 with one professional fight, and she’s done most of that work while fighting at the highest level, which is doubly commendable, however I think there is a level where she tops out in terms of the rankings and I think it’s the 7-10 range.
While these two are side-by-side in the standings currently, I genuinely believe Ribas has championship potential and the gap between the two will show on Saturday. I expect a quick takedown, transition to a dominant position, and a submission finish, if not in the first round, definitely in the second.
Prediction: Amanda Ribas by submission
Preliminary Card Picks
Kyle Daukaus def. Phil Hawes
L’udovit Klein def. Mike Trizano
Tafon Nchukwi def. Junyong Park
Christian Aguilera def. Carlston Harris
2021 PDP Record: 99-70-2, 2 NC (.572)