Punch Drunk Predictions: UFC Vegas 46
It's the start of a brand new year of picking fights, and after a strong close to 2021, it's time to start chasing lofty goals once more
Here we fucking go!
It’s the start of a brand new year picking fights, and after closing out 2021 with a nice little run of results that carried me over the .600 mark for the year, it’s time to start chasing that same lofty goal I set out for myself last year one more time.
In case this is your first time tuning into the Punch Drunk Predictions (PDP) series, my aim at the outset of every year is to finish the year with a .700 winning percentage or better.
That’s a crazy high number, and I came up short of it last year, but what’s the point of doing this if I’m not going to set a wild goal for myself?
Additionally — and this is just a me thing, not a dig at anyone else that does predictions or anything like that — I make a point to keep track of my results from week-to-week and post them at the end of each piece in the series so that you can see how I’m doing throughout the year and use that as a metric to judge whether my insights or worth following or I’m completely full of shit.
Here’s the thing: as much as I feel like I had a bad year last year, I still got 60% of my predictions correct, and if I had gotten 1.28 more fights correct each card, I would have reached the .700 winning percentage I set out to achieve.
And while getting one more fight correct every week is challenging, it isn’t out of the realm of possibilities, especially considering there were a handful of shows where I got less than 50% of my picks correct. A few more instances of making the smart choice, a couple less crazy upsets, and I think I can hit that number.
If I reach my goal, great, and if I don’t, so be it… we’ll have fun either way!
Calvin Kattar vs. Giga Chikadze
I genuinely think that folks are either underestimating Kattar here or giving Chikadze too much credit, because I believe this will be a more competitive fight than the prevailing narrative seems to suggest. That said, I still have to pick Chikadze.
Stylistically, there is the potential for this to get ugly in a hurry for Kattar, who does his best work in boxing range and against opponents that are happy to stand in there with him, but Chikadze isn’t going to do that. Instead, the Georgian kickboxer will operate at kicking distance, keeping Kattar at bay with kicks to all levels and swift jabs, looking to set up power shots that create finishing opportunities.
Now, I do think Kattar has the potential to muck this up, get in Chikadze’s face, and drag this into deep water, where we’ll really get a chance to see if the streaking hopeful can swim. But in order to do that, he’s going to need to avoid taking too much damage in the first few round, and I’m not convinced that will happen.
Chikadze gets another victory, moves into the Top 5, and waits to see if he can land a championship opportunity before Max Holloway is ready to return.
Prediction: Giga Chikadze
Jake Collier vs. Chase Sherman
This one feels fairly straightforward to me, which is a dangerous thing to say about a pair of middling low-end heavyweights with sub-.500 UFC records, however I just feel like Collier is too smart to not beat the hell out of Sherman’s lead leg and turn him into a stationary target.
Again, these are two guys that have struggled to earn victories inside the Octagon, so Sherman could very well go out and look like a million bucks, making me look like an idiot, but the truth of the matter is that this is a coin-flip fight and I’m banking on Collier having the better approach.
Prediction: Jake Collier
Brandon Royval vs. Rogerio Bontorin
Bontorin has yet to replicate the finishing success he had prior to reaching the UFC since arriving in the Octagon, and after coming off a bantamweight fight where he missed weight, I just can’t trust him against a talented fighter and dynamic scrambler like Royval.
As much as the Factory X Muay Thai representative has lost two straight, who he fought is arguably more important than the result, as he dropped those contests to current champ Brandon Moreno (after suffering an injury) and Alexandre Pantoja, who would have been challenging Moreno for the belt if not for a knee injury. Losing to those two gentlemen doesn’t change how I feel about Royval as a fighter; it just suggests that he wasn’t quite ready to be a part of the elite class at that time.
Maybe he’s not there yet, but he’s already shown that he can beat Top 10 talents, as he did in his first two appearances against Tim Elliott and Kai Kara-France. Conversely, Bontorin hasn’t done that yet, and I don’t see that changing here.
Prediction: Brandon Royval
Katlyn Chookagian vs. Jennifer Maia
I’m not sure there is any real reason to believe the result of this one will differ from their initial encounter.
The 33-year-old “Blonde Fighter” won the first two rounds of that contest by establishing her range and deploying her trademark style before Maia was able to nab the final round. Two-plus years and a handful of fights later, there hasn’t been anything I’ve seen from Maia that suggests to me that she’s going to start quicker, have greater success hemming Chookagian in or catching her with something sharp that ends the fight suddenly.
Fighting Chookagian has to be tremendously annoying if you’re anyone but the absolute bests in the division because it’s not like you ever feel like you’re in too much trouble, getting hurt too badly, but next thing you know, two rounds are gone, you’re down on the cards, and you’re stuck needing a finish to earn a victory. And she’s tough to finish, unless you’re Valentina Shevchenko or Jessica Andrade.
I foresee a stick-and-move clinic with a lot of audible “hups” that irritate fans even more than her style will irritate Maia.
Prediction: Katlyn Chookagian
Dakota Bush vs. Viacheslav Borshchev
If I’m being a little short with these explanations, it’s not because I don’t like the fights or don’t have much to say: it’s because I’m on a little getaway with my family to Tofino and as much as I love writing this series, I love exploring here and hanging out with them more.
Sorry, but not really.
Anyway, Bush dropped his debut against Austin Hubbard, getting the nod in a close first round on all three cards before “Thud” took the final two stanzas and the fight, and I think this fight will look fairly similar.
Borshchev is a technically sound striker with solid power, a little more life experience, and a great camp behind him. I know Bush comes from an excellent team as well, but I genuinely believe that “Slava Claus” being 30 years old and having a little more overall combat sports experience and maturity will help him win the day.
Prediction: Viacheslav Borshchev
Bill Algeo vs. Joanderson Brito
I’ve been dancing around this pick all week and I just have to pull the trigger — I think Algeo gets it done.
It’s not that I don’t think Brito is talented or lacks upside, it’s just that I want to see more from him before I establish a real opinion about him, and I believe that a savvy, well-rounded veteran fighter like Algeo has the wherewithal to hand him a loss in his promotional debut.
This feels to me like one of those instances where the NKOTB looks sharp early, but fades after five minutes when the adrenaline is gone and the emotion of the moment starts eating away at those energy reserves. Algeo has shown he can go three hard rounds against more experienced, more dynamic opposition, and unless Brito is able to wrestle the life out of him and control him on canvas for long stretches, I think the Pennsylvania native will navigate the opening five minutes, win the next two rounds, and secure the victory.
Prediction: Bill Algeo
Preliminary Card Picks
Joseph Holmes def. Jamie Pickett
Ramiz Brahimaj def. Court McGee
Brian Kelleher def. Kevin Croom
Charles Rosa def. TJ Brown
2022 PDP Record: N/A
2021 PDP Record: 278-173-5, 5 NC (.603)