Punch Drunk Predictions: UFC Vegas 19
Which heavyweight will emerge victorious: Curtis Blaydes or Derrick Lewis?
Going 8-2 last weekend finally brought me back over .500 for the year, but I’m not letting that effort make me over-confident; it was a good night of selections, chalk mostly dominated, but now it’s on to the next.
This week’s massive 15-fight card offers a chance to put up a real big number that could really get me moving towards that .700 winning percentage I want to have by the end of the year, but the flips-side, of course, is that it also represents a chance for things to really get away from me and make it damn near impossible to hit that mark unless I go on a year-long heater from here on out.
But as I say every time in the opening to a new prediction piece: that’s the fun of doing this, at least for me.
Sure, I want to get as many predictions correct as possible, but I’m also not so maniacal about it all that I’m going to get really down on myself if things go sideways and I end up with a miserable record when December rolls around.
I’m going to be watching the fights, I have thoughts on how they’re going to play out, so why not share them with you here, and keep track of how I do while I’m at it?
Last week was a good show. Let’s see how we do this time around.
Here are the UFC Vegas 19 Punch Drunk Predictions.
Curtis Blaydes vs. Derrick Lewis
I’ve been going back and forth on this one for more than a week, initially feeling extremely confident in one side before slowly working through possibilities and landing in a place where I have real mixed feelings about how this will actually play out.
The obvious thinking is that Blaydes uses his tremendous grappling advantage to put Lewis on the canvas repeatedly, neutralizing his power and forcing the Houston native to expend a great deal of energy to either defend on the ground or scramble back to his feet. Blaydes has also talked about wanting to be more aggressive when he does get opponents to the ground, so the potential is there for him to attack submissions as well.
What slowly crept into my head during the course of this week, however, is that even an exhausted Lewis has hellacious power and we saw Blaydes slow down and ultimately lose the final round of his clash with Alexander Volkov last year. If the same happens here and “The Black Beast” gets a chance to sling them sledgehammers, he could put Blaydes down.
Add in there that the one dude that has been able to get the better of Blaydes is the biggest power hitter he’s faced, Francis Ngannou, and I have to wonder if Lewis doesn’t take a page from Ngannou’s blueprint and bring the fight to Blaydes right out of the chute, hoping to catch him with something funky before he has a chance to settle in and start wrestling.
But now here we are, at the time when I’ve got to make it official, and I’m going with Blaydes.
By no means am I counting Lewis out here, but I do think that Blaydes will put him on the deck early and is much better at controlling opponents on the canvas than the myriad folks Lewis was able to simply muscle his way out from under, and if he does plan on attacking more, I believe submission opportunities will present themselves.
He’ll need to get it done inside of three rounds because once his energy reserves start to fade and those entries start to get a little sloppy and telegraphed, Lewis will be looking to launch his head into the 17th row and only needs to land one to erase a quality effort and steal Blaydes’ place in the pecking order.
Prediction: Curtis Blaydes by submission
Ketlen Vieira vs. Yana Kunitskaya
Vieira missed weight by a couple of pounds on Friday morning, but it’s not nearly as big a concern as Rafael Alves missing the lightweight mark for his featherweight fight with Pat Sabatini… yikes!
I don’t see the Brazilian having too much trouble in this one, as Kunitskaya has a point-fighting style on the feet and not the kind of knockout power than proved to be Vieira’s downfall in her loss to Irene Aldana. More importantly, she doesn’t have the kind of takedown defense that is going to allow her to keep this fight standing, and I think once it gets to the ground, Vieira will dominate.
Though I believe she’ll be conservative in her approach, Vieira will methodically work her way into a position to finish, either forcing Kunitskaya to give up her back or attacking with an arm-triangle choke like she did against Sara McMann a couple years back.
Either way, I think we’ll see a dominant grappling performance from the Brazilian, putting her in a position to face one of the four women stationed ahead of her in the rankings early in the second half of the year.
Prediction: Ketlen Vieira by submission
Charles Rosa vs. Darrick Minner
This one feels pretty straightforward to me and I don’t mean that as a knock on Minner, who snatched up T.J. Laramie’s neck in under a minute last time out.
Rosa isn’t a newcomer in his early 20s that is going to leave his neck exposed on a bad takedown attempt; he’s a legit Brazilian jiu jitsu black belt and I think he’ll roll here.
Minner has struggled throughout his career against the best fighters he’s faced, and while h always starts quickly, he fades quickly as well, and I believe Rosa will be ready for that, looking to weather the inevitable early rush before getting into his own offense and bringing the fight to Minner.
Only three of Minner’s 36 fights have gone to the scorecards, so I think we’ll see Rosa get a finish, likely on the ground in the second or third rounds. He’s just a more complete, more savvy, more experienced fighter and that should shine through on Saturday.
Prediction: Charles Rosa by submission
Aleksei Oleinik vs. Chris Daukaus
This is one of those fights where I’m pretty confident about how it’s going to play out, but I’m also completely aware that it could go pear-shaped in a hurry because Oleinik is that dude.
Look, I’ve really enjoyed watching the 43-year-old trudge around the Octagon and choke people out, and loved — LOVED — his performance against Fabricio Werdum at UFC 249, but I think there are fighter who are always going to give Oleinik problems and Daukaus fits that profile.
The Philadelphia cop moves significantly better than Oleinik and has legitimate pop in his hands, and that’s been a pretty clear recipe for disaster for “The Boa Constrictor” over the last couple years. Even with having a solid base on the ground himself, I anticipate Daukaus fighting this one from range, looking to sting Oleinik from the outside before moving in for the finish.
Could the veteran get his paws on the 31-year-old upstart, drag him to the canvas, and slap on an Ezekiel choke or a scarf-hold to get the submission? Of course he could, but I think the more likely outcome is Daukaus busting Oleinik up and putting him away with punches.
Prediction: Chris Daukaus by TKO
Phillip Hawes vs. Nassourdine Imavov
I’m so amped for this fight and I’m honestly probably overlooking Imavov a little because I’m so completely and utterly behind Phillip Hawes finally reaching this level and putting everything together as a professional fighter.
Hawes was hyped to the gills when he first showed up at Jackson-Wink back in the day and struggled in his most high-profile opportunities, as many young, inexperienced fighters do. He receded into the background, but never stopped working and now feels poised (to me, at least) to make a quick climb up the middleweight ranks.
Imavov is a legit prospect as well and looked solid in his debut win over Jordan Williams, showcasing good footwork and fluidity with his striking, however his three-inch height advantage won’t translate into any edge in the reach department, as Hawes actually has a slight advantage.
I genuinely believe that Hawes has top tier potential and a rare mix of skills and abilities, which I think we’ll see on Saturday.
The power Hawes has exhibited over his last two victories will make another appearance this weekend, and Imavov won’t be able to clinch up and avoid further punishment like he did in his debut win over Jordan Williams.
Prediction: Phillip Hawes by TKO
Andrei Arlovski vs. Tom Aspinall
This is the kind of fight that Andrei Arlovski has been penciled in to lose too many times for me to remember over the last four years, and while he’s landed on the wrong side of the results a couple times, it’s not as often as one would think and he seldom gets blown out of the water.
But I think he gets blown out of the water here.
Aspinall has a different level of quickness and fluidity to his striking than some of the other younger upstarts that have been sent in to potentially get a bump by beating Arlovski, and as much as the former heavyweight champion and divisional staple has continued to impress by remaining relevant and posting wins, this feels like one of those instances where there isn’t a happy ending for the veteran from Belarus.
While I’m still not sure exactly where Aspinall fits in terms of the heavyweight hierarchy, I think the potential is there for him to be a Top 10 fixture going forward and we’ll see why this weekend. I anticipate a lot of early pressure and aggressiveness as he looks to land one on Arlovski’s chin and continue his run of first-round finishes since arriving in the UFC.
Arlovski has only been stopped by Francis Ngannou and Jairzinho Rozenstruik over the last four years, but even though I don’t necessarily put Aspinall in that power bracket, I do think he has what it takes to put the 42-year-old on the deck for his third straight triumph inside the Octagon.
Prediction: Tom Aspinall by TKO
Preliminary Card Picks
Jared Gordon def. Danny Chavez
Drakkar Klose def. Luis Pena
Eddie Wineland def. John Casteneda
Nate Landwehr def. Julian Erosa
Shana Dobson def. Casey O’Neill
Chas Skelly def. Jamall Emmers
Aiemann Zahabi def. Drako Rodriguez
Jared Vanderaa def. Serghei Spivac
2021 PDP Record: 30-27-0 (.526)