Punch Drunk Predictions: UFC Vegas 37
Will Anthony Smith continue his resurgence or can Ryan Spann take another step towards contention?
Here’s the funny thing about doing predictions and breaking down fights: you can get all the beats right, forecast how the fight is going to play out almost letter-perfect, and still make the wrong selection in the end.
That’s what happened for me in the last main event, where I said there were three ways I could see it playing out — Darren Till early, Derek Brunson in the middle rounds, or Darren Till late — and I rolled the dice on Darren Till getting the job done late.
What happened? Brunson fought the exact type of fight I projected he would fight, doing exactly what he needed to do in order to secure the third-round stoppage win.
This racket is funny that way.
Here are my picks for tomorrow’s card.
Anthony Smith vs. Ryan Spann
This is the most difficult fight on the slate for me because it pits a fighter looking to re-stake his claim to being a contender against someone aiming to make that case for the first time, and in these types of matchups, all kinds of options are on the table.
As much as I believe Spann has the goods to be a contender in this division one day — and maybe soon — I’m still taking an “I have to see it first” approach, which means I’m siding with Smith.
I think there are ways Spann wins this fight and I honestly wouldn’t be surprised to see any of them play out — he could catch Smith coming forward with a power shot; he could catch him in a submission on a takedown attempt or scramble; he could sting him and swarm — but we haven’t seen that from him yet, at least not against an opponent of this caliber.
Conversely, we’ve seen Smith win this fight more than a few times, and he too has multiple paths to victory, including, and I think this is the biggest positive in his favor, later in the fight when Spann, who has tired in the past, ventures into those deep main event waters that are unfamiliar to him. What I have really appreciated about Smith through this little two-fight rebuild is that he’s made the right choices in terms of how to deploy his weapons — wrestling Devin Clark when Clark hit him with a good right out of the gate, chopping at Jimmy Crute’s legs from range rather than getting in tight and swinging with the powerful Aussie — and I think we’ll see something similar here.
I think this will look similar to Smith’s fight with Volkan Oezdemir — close early, but as Spann begins to fade, Smith takes control, and I do think he finds a finish later in the fight too.
Prediction: Anthony Smith by TKO
Ion Cutelaba vs. Devin Clark
Clark is going to need to weather an early storm in order to win this one, because if there is one thing we know for sure, it’s that Cutelaba is going to come out hot and throwing hammers.
The real interesting inflection point of this fight to me isn’t so much whether Clark can wrestle Cutelaba to the ground, as it is whether he can control him on the fence and do enough work there in order to maintain the position and grind precious time off the clock, because that’s how I think he wins this one, if he’s going to win this one.
Cutelaba has solid takedown defense and a decent ability to work back to his feet, and despite his “balls to the wall” approach to start every fight, he tends to hold up okay over three rounds, so it will be imperative for Clark to avoid getting clipped and finished early, and then deploy the same approach he used to grind out Alonzo Menifield two fights back.
I believe he’s ready to take another step forward and capable of implementing this strategy, and I think we see him turn in one of the better performances of his career on Saturday.
Prediction: Devin Clark by unanimous decision
Ariane Lipski vs. Mandy Bohm
This is one of those matchups where I have to side with the more established, more proven commodity, and as much as she’s been mostly underwhelming through her first six UFC starts, that means I’m siding with Lipski.
Look, “The Violence Queen” hasn’t been particularly violent through her initial half-dozen appearances, registering just two victories, though one of those was violent (shouts to Luana Carolina’s knee!), and she’s been stopped in each of her last two outings by good, but uneven talents Antonina Shevchenko and Montana De La Rosa, but at least she’s been fighting uneven UFC talents.
Bohm’s unbeaten professional record has been built facing “professional opponents” and women who fought once, lost, and thought, “Yeah, this isn’t for me.” Her best win came under the TKO banner against Jade Mason-Wong, who is a perfectly competent regional talent, but not the kind of fighter that makes you think, “Yep, Bohm is going to waltz into the UFC and dominate.”
She still might win — she has a height and reach advantage, Lipski has holes in her ground game, especially defensively, and she’s never come close to living up to the hype that accompanied her arrival — but much like the main event, I need to see her win in the UFC before I can pick her to win in the UFC.
Prediction: Ariane Lipski by unanimous decision
Arman Tsarukyan vs. Christos Giagos
Tsarukyan is going to roll here.
I think Giagos is a quality, mid-pack lightweight who should be able to continue putting together 3-1, 3-2, 2-1 runs in the UFC for the next couple years, pulling some upsets, turning in some impressive outings, and making like the Joey Knish of the 155-pound weight class, but I think Tsarukyan is special and we’re going to see that here.
The 24-year-old isn’t going to wow you with highlight reel knockouts or even high amplitude throws (though he has big takedowns in his arsenal) — he’s just going to methodically break you down and wear you out until you’re either too tired to keep fighting him off and give up a submission or the final horn sounds.
I really do think he’s the heir to Islam Makhachev’s role as the dangerous, ultra-talented guy no one with real upward ambitions wants to face, and this becomes his version of Makhachev’s fights with Nik Lentz or Davi Ramos — a one-sided win over a quality opponent that makes you really sit up and take notice of this emerging talent patiently working his way up the divisional ladder in one of the deepest, most competitive weight classes in the UFC.
Prediction: Arman Tsarukyan by submission
Joaquin Buckley vs. Antonio Arroyo
I believe Buckley is going to win this fight and I think he’ll actually win handily, as he’s too powerful, too dynamic on the feet for Arroyo, who is one of those Brazilian jiu jitsu players that hasn’t quite figured out how to quickly and efficiently get into his game.
While it would be ridiculous to suggest Buckley is going to deliver another all-time highlight reel finish like the one he delivered against Impa Kasanganay, I do believe that a stoppage is coming.
What I’m really going to be watching for in this fight is improvements from Buckley, who got kicked upside his head in January by Alessio Di Chirico, a steady, but limited veteran. If Buckley is going to make waves in this division and eventually develop into a Top 15 talent — and he believes he’s destined for even greater heights — I need to see it here. I need to see him go in and wipe out Arroyo, and not have any of those moments where he gets hit with something spicy or has more struggles than anticipated.
We shall see.
Prediction: Joaquin Buckley by TKO
Nate Maness vs. Tony Gravely
As I said yesterday, I’m happy this fight is getting main card real estate and I think it’s going to be more competitive and more entertaining than people might think initially, as Maness is just one of those game, tough sumbitches who finds ways to win, while Gravely has built a pretty solid resume while only losing to real quality opponents earlier in his career.
The deciding factor here is going to be the wrestling — can Maness keep it standing and get back to his feet quickly if taken down or will Gravely be able to close the distance and turn this into a grappling match? — and I think the latter is the more likely outcome of the two.
I really like Maness as a fighter — I think he’s going to be a perpetual tough out that logs a bunch of wins in the thick of this division for the next several years — but I think Gravely has the potential to be a ranked fighter in the 135-pound weight class, which is saying something because bantamweight is loaded. He’s just relentless and as he continues to build and grow with more time at American Top Team, I think we see him carve out a Cody Stamann, Brad Riddell-esque role for himself in the bantamweight ranks.
Prediction: Tony Gravely by unanimous decision
Preliminary Card Picks
Tafon Nchukwi def. Mike Rodriguez
Pannie Kianzad def. Raquel Pennington
Brandon Jenkins def. Rongzhu
Montel Jackson def. JP Buys
Erin Blanchfield def. Sarah Alpar
Impa Kasanganay def. Carlston Harris
Gustavo Lopez def. Alatangheili
Emily Whitmire def. Hannah Goldy
2021 PDP Record: 191-148-3, 4 NC (.552)