The Conundrum Continues: Unpacking Another Kevin Holland Loss
Following a second loss in three weeks, it's time to have a deeper conversation about how this year has gone sideways for 2020's breakthrough middleweight and how we're talking about him
Check out my column following Holland’s loss to Derek Brunson: The Kevin Holland Conundrum
Saturday afternoon, Kevin Holland did what Kevin Holland does when faced with a dangerous foe looking to put him on the canvas — he got taken down, repeatedly, showing little understanding of what was transpiring before landing on the business end of a unanimous decision loss for the second time in three weeks.
After Derek Brunson laid the blueprint for how to neutralize the surging 2020 breakout fighter’s offensive weaponry, Marvin Vettori waltzed into the Octagon on Saturday and took it up a notch, recording the most successful takedowns in the history of the UFC middleweight division (11) while busting Holland up a little and looking far more fresh than Brunson did by the time things were done.
In the wake of Saturday’s contest, the majority of the discussion has centered around Holland — (1) what went wrong, (2) what he should do next, and (3) how much his stock has dropped following his five-win campaign last year?
Vettori, who pushed his winning streak to five by successfully navigating a risky short-notice assignment, has become the secondary figure in the fallout; a compelling, emerging threat whose triumph isn’t being given as much weight as Brunson’s was three weeks earlier because the blueprint had already been laid.
It makes sense given how much attention was on Holland coming out of last year and the lofty expectations many had for him coming into his 2021 campaign, but the holes in his game are now glaring and can’t be ignored, plus the discussions around what comes next and how to fix things also highlights some of the reasons we fail to appreciate many of the proven, tenured competitors that sit just outside of title contention in every weight class.
It also illustrates how much we need to learn to acknowledge when we get one wrong.
Wrestling Isn’t the Only Problem
It’s easy to look at how Holland’s last two fights played out and point to his shoddy takedown defence as the reason for his struggles, and that’s certainly part of it, but it’s not the only problem.
Spending the next six months getting beaten up in a quality wrestling room, with experienced, committed coaches putting him through drill upon drill upon drill so that he gets the reps he needs to start feeling comfortable with those positions is a major step in the right direction, but it’s not a cure-all.
Before even addressing the takedown defence itself, Holland needs to work on his ability to read and react to situations accordingly, as that feels like the root of all his problems to me. There is a general lack of awareness when it comes to spatial recognition and understanding processes that are apparent not only in his poor takedown defence, but that manifest elsewhere in his fights as well.
If you watch Holland strike, there are far too many times where he puts himself off balance, lunging forward on strikes that are easy-to-read and therefore have a low percentage chance of landing effectively, which in turn leaves him out of position and unable to defend whatever comes his way in return. Lately, that has been body lock takedowns, but against a quality striker, it will be a heavy shot that will likely land flush.
Against the cage, he’s throwing strikes to the ribs and boxing his opponent’s ears when he should be digging underhooks and trying to get his back off the fence. When he is taken down, the Brazilian jiu jitsu black belt has little to offer, even though his frame should, in theory, provide him with opportunities to attack submissions or at least create room to move or potentially sweep.
The more I watch Holland, the more I see a natural athlete with poor fundamentals who is running into trouble now that he can’t out-athlete the competition. Either he doesn’t understand how to use his skills to their maximum effectiveness or he doesn’t care to, neither of which are good when you’re fighting at this level, and while his takedown defence has been the glaring hole in his game these last two fights, it’s an overall understanding of situations, spacing, and simple fundamentals that look like the greater overall issue to me.
Welterweight Isn’t the Answer
Holland has talked about wanting to move to welterweight in the past, and after these last two losses and tipping the scales below the 185-pound championship limit on Saturday, more and more people seem to believe that a move down a division is the right thing for the 28-year-old at this moment.
I disagree, because there are still wrestlers at welterweight.
In fact, there are probably more capable wrestlers in the 170-pound ranks than there are at middleweight, so it’s not like Holland is going to move down and never have to worry about defending a takedown again. He has basic flaws and gaps in his understanding that need to be addressed, regardless of where he competes, and while his size would, in theory, be an even bigger asset at welterweight, it’s not like he’s shown a great mastery at utilizing his reach either.
After his loss to Brunson, when he again floated the idea of changing divisions, I tweeted that Holland should compete at middleweight and focus on his wrestling. After watching the sequel against Vettori on Saturday, I still think that is the case, though I’d like to add that he needs to add a serious strength and conditioning routine to his weekly activities as well.
I would also recommend finding a coach / team that can teach him how to utilize his reach and play to his strengths, because despite how bad he’s looked over his last two outings, Holland does have considerable natural talent; he’s just doesn’t know how to deploy them effectively.
Moving to welterweight as-is doesn’t change that he’s too willing to let opponents come forward and dictate the terms of engagement even though he’s not a great counter striker.
It doesn’t remedy the fact that he often tries to land one clean, punishing shot when volume and variety would be a solid starting point for keeping guys from getting into clinch positions and taking him down.
It doesn’t do anything about how willing he’s been to accept being on bottom or that he’d rather box a guy’s ears than try to work off the fence.
Rather than cutting down, Holland should stay at middleweight, work on getting stronger, and start addressing the issues that will continue to keep him from being successful against top competition.
Show Neil Magny Some Respect
On Monday’s episode of The Man & The MITH, Shaheen Al-Shatti drew a comparison to Top 10 fixture Neil Magny when discussing Holland’s potential move to welterweight, and while I understand the comp from a “tale of the tape” perspective, that’s where it ends for me.
Now, maybe I’m misinterpreting what Shaheen was saying — I’ve reached out seeking clarification — but here’s what was said in discussing Holland’s potential move to welterweight and the comparison to Magny:
“… you look at his six-foot-three frame, and it’s not what you expect for a welterweight, but there is a guy right out there at welterweight who is the exact same frame, Neil Magny. Neil Magny is the exact same height, basically the exact same measurements; he has found tons of success at 170, especially at the higher levels.”
If the argument is that Holland should aspire to be more like Magny and work to replicate what the former Ultimate Fighter contestant and current Elevation Fight Team member does, I can get with that, but a strict “If Magny can do it, so can Holland” suggestion feels way off and doesn’t give Magny the credit he deserves for what he’s accomplished.
Like Holland, Magny is 6’3” tall and has an 80-inch reach.
But unlike Holland, Magny knows how to utilize said reach, has sound spacial awareness, quality defensive grappling, and has exhibited a clear commitment to improving his skills, developing his craft, shoring up his weaknesses, and learning how to fight to his strengths.
Comparing the two on a straight line like that feels like the reason we never seem to adequately appreciate and acknowledge the Neil Magnys of the world: we’re too quick to lump them in with folks that just aren’t on their level and obscure their accomplishments for the sake of comparison or to elevate someone we believe in.
All too often, we act like what tenured Top 15 fighters do or have done is easy to replicate and that’s simply not the case.
What Magny has done by amassing a 17-7 record in the UFC and holding down a place in the Top 15 for more than six years an outstanding achievement, and is not something Holland can just go out and make happen with a few small adjustments, especially considering he’s given us no indication yet that he’s capable of such feats. Magny has beaten two former undisputed champions, and an interim champion, plus dudes like Erick Silva, Kelvin Gastelum, Li Jingliang, and Anthony Rocco Martin; Holland has beaten zero Top 15 fighters and got dominated by the two ranked opponents he’s faced.
Just because one guy that stands six-three and has an 80-inch reach has found success in the welterweight division doesn’t mean someone else with the same measurements is bound to do the same, and while I get the desire to compare the two, it really does feel like a undervaluing what Magny has accomplished over the course of his career to point to his place in the division and suggest that Holland is capable of replicating those achievements.
Magny had to scratch and claw his way to the fringes of recognition in the welterweight division, and still probably doesn’t get as much love and appreciation for the career he’s put together thus far.
He deserves better than pointing to a struggling, often times indifferent Holland and suggesting he could certainly do the same.
It’s Okay to Admit When You Get One Wrong
People got it wrong with Holland, and it’s okay to admit that.
They looked at the five wins in seven months and the wild knockout of Jacare Souza to close out the year and thought, “This dude is destined for big things,” and they were wrong. He might get there eventually, but he’s clearly not ready yet.
Just about everyone bought into the winning streak and how fun it was that he talked throughout his fights and didn’t dig too deep into who he beat, how he beat them, or the flaws and limitations of Holland’s game because three of his five wins were impressive finishes, two in the first round, and no one really wants to be “No Fun Spencer” that points out that Holland let dudes like Alessio Di Chirico and Gerald Meerschaert and Darren Stewart hang around and make things close when truly great fighters and those with legitimate championship upside would blow through those gentlemen.
They saw the Jacare finish, infused it with their nostalgic, never-ending love of the former Strikeforce middleweight champ, and treated it like it was a first-round knockout win over 2017 or 2018 Jacare, overlooking that he’s 41 and had looked listless in each of his two prior outings, both of which he lost.
They wanted Holland to succeed because he’s a character and something different than most of his contemporaries, and now that he’s struggling, everyone is scrambling for ways to salvage things, rather than just admitting they all kind of got ahead of themselves.
It’s understandable.
It happens.
Own it.
I’ve gotten lots of things wrong and I’ll get loads more wrong in the future, and when I’m wrong, I’ll be the first to acknowledge it, because that’s what allows me to not make the same bad reads or poor choices that lead to my mistakes in the first place.
It also makes it a lot more easier to celebrate the wins, whenever those come around.
We need to get better at this as a community, as an industry — at taking that beat and kicking off that “what comes next?” conversation by acknowledging a bad call or poor read, rather than just shuffling passed all those opinions and beliefs we held onto ever so tightly before things went sideways.
Too often, too many people act like it was everyone else that got it wrong because no one wants to be on the wrong side of things, but we’re all out here giving our thoughts, opinions, analysis week-after-week, event-after-event, ad infinitum, and we’re bound to make all kinds of mistakes.
I’m going to keep working hard to make sure I acknowledge mine.
I hope others will too.