The Month Ahead: 10 Intriguing February Fights
With no UFC event this weekend, why not look ahead to what's on tap next month and spotlight a bunch of matchups that really pique my interest
This is an actual conversation that happened in my house the other night, as we were trying to get things organized for the weekend:
Spencer: Which day do you want to go in and help your mum pack and move things?
Wife: Well if you want to come, it has to be Sunday because you’ve got fights.
Spencer: No I don’t.
Wife: Really?
Yeah Babe, really.
After just two weeks of action, the UFC is offering up a rare weekend free of fisticuffs, which means I’ll be spending the time usually reserved for watching people punch each other in the face (and commit sundry other actions of glorious violence) prepping my mother-in-law for a long-overdue move that is not yet officially happening. It’s complicated, and nothing we need to get into here.
Part of why I’m so ready and willing to partake in this venture — beyond the fact that I’m an excellent son-in-law and world-class packer (I’ve moved literally dozens of times) — is that once this weekend comes and goes, there won’t be another Saturday without a UFC event until April 2nd, which will then be followed by at least six additional consecutive weeks with UFC events, provided all currently forecasted dates hold up.
You read that right: after this weekend, 14 of the next 15 Saturdays are slated to feature UFC cards, and while that is exhausting and entirely too much for some, you already know I’m freakishly excited, especially because the first show in the February slate is an ESK Special featuring a host of lesser known, but emerging competitors.
So with things over the next few weeks trending in direction of traditional Fight Week fare, I thought I’d use this final Friday without an instalment of the Punch Drunk Predictions to preview a collection of the upcoming fights that I’m most looking forward to for one reason or another.
Ready?
Let’s go!
UFC Vegas 47 — Saturday, February 5 at UFC APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada
Shavkat Rakhmonov vs. Carlston Harris
What a way to start things off!
Rakhmonov is 2-0 in the UFC with finishes over “Cowboy” Oliveira and Michel Prazeres. Harris (above) is 2-0 in the UFC with first-round stoppage wins over Christian Aguilera and Impa Kasanganay. The former is 25 years old and 14-0 overall, while the latter is nine years his senior and has won nine of his last 10.
This is the exact right time to match these two ascending welterweights up against one another to determine which one takes another step forward and which one has to hold steady for a moment, and I absolutely cannot wait.
I think Rakhomonv is one of the best prospects in the UFC and believe he has the requisite wealth of skills and talent to be a contender in the not too distant future, though I also recognize that Harris is the kind of experienced, dangerous, savvy veteran who is more than capable of tripping up a young, promising fighter just when he looks primed to take the next step.
This one should be entertaining and important in terms of helping sort some things out in the 170-pound weight class, and you better have it circled on your calendar.
Nick Maximov vs. Punahele Soriano
I’ve ragged on Maximov a little because he got ranked No. 13 in ESPN’s Top 25 Under 25 list, which is no fault of his own, so I suppose I owe him an apology. He’s an interesting prospect that is getting a little greater attention than his efforts and results would normally dictate because he’s a Diaz Brothers disciple, but he’s shown flashes of promise, is undefeated, and has a chance to make a real statement in this scrap next Saturday night.
Soriano enters the contest off following his first career loss — a unanimous decision setback to Brendan Allen in July — but is 8-1 overall and has already registered a pair of first-round stoppage wins in his brief UFC career. The Hawaiian, who trains at Xtreme Couture, has good hands, but needs to be a little more diverse in his attacks, and this pairing with be an excellent chance to see what his takedown defence and grappling skills look like.
Just as the pairing between Rakhmonov and Harris is perfectly timed, so too is this one, as both fighters are so early in their respective UFC journeys that a loss isn’t going to derail either of them long-term. This is a fighter where we’re sorting out who is the better prospect at the moment and shuffling that guy forward, while giving the vanquished competitor a chance to regroup, and look to get it moving in the right direction again later in the year.
Jack Hermansson vs. Sean Strickland
A week before the middleweight title goes up for grabs in H-Town, Hermansson and Strickland headline the month’s first event in a five-round banger that carries legitimate “top of the division” ramifications.
Hermansson started slowly and then mauled Edmen Shahbazyan last year, but has struggled in his biggest spots and been the odd man out in terms of getting booked with someone positioned ahead of him in the rankings. Strickland (above), meanwhile, has gone 4-0 since returning to action following a two-year hiatus, propelling himself into the Top 10 with a victory over Uriah Hall last summer.
I’m most interested in the Strickland side of this fight because I find the Californian loose cannon to be fascinating as a fighter. He’s an absolute Dude Qualities guy where there is nothing he does that blows you away, but he’s tough as all get out, genuinely loves getting in a fist-fight, and knows exactly who he is as a competitor, which has resulted in his winning 19 consecutive fights as a middleweight.
Yeah, that’s right, he’s 19-0 when fighting in the 185-pound weight class.
That fact gets lost in the shuffle a little because he dropped to welterweight and caught a couple losses, but the 30-year-old emerging contender has never lost at middleweight and I really want to see how far he can take this. Each time I think his run is going to come to an end, he scores another solid victory, and if he does the same against “The Joker,” Strickland will be looking at a date with a Top 5 fighter next.
UFC 271 — Saturday, February 12 at Toyota Center in Houston, Texas
Roxanne Modafferi vs. Casey O’Neill
This one has my interest for two very different reasons:
First, it’s the final fight of Modafferi’s career and “The Happy Warrior” is one of the most pleasant, amiable people I’ve ever gotten the opportunity to speak with while covering this sport, and there is a part of me that what’s her to have a terrific sendoff into retirement. Modafferi actually transcends the “appreciate tenured talents” argument I made in writing about Jeremy Stephens on Thursday and fits more into a “know your history and respect those who laid the foundation” category as one of the pioneers of women’s MMA who worked through various eras, several career rough patches, and cobbled together a truly one-of-a-kind career.
Secondly, O’Neill stands at the vanguard of an emerging crush of talent working its way up the flyweight ranks, and after posting three finishes in as many starts during her rookie campaign last year, this is her first appearance of 2022 and a chance to move either higher up the rankings. Even with Modafferi being on her way out, beating a veteran of her stature still speaks volumes, and if she can move to 4-0 inside the Octagon, she’ll also move into the title conversation.
Jared Cannonier vs. Derek Brunson
We could very well see the next title challenger in the middleweight division determined just a couple fights before the middleweight title is defended, as most, I think, tend to view this clash between Cannonier (above) and Brunson as a title eliminator.
This is one of those instances where I can set aside everything else and just concentrate on the fight itself, and the fight itself is intriguing to me. Cannonier is a powerful striker who prefers to work in space, while Brunson has done is best work of late by actually using his wrestling and not just looking to trade with people, as he did during his first attempt to scale the middleweight rankings. Cannonier’s ability to defend takedowns and Brunson’s cardio will be the two biggest determining factors in this fight (IMO), and the fact that it’s a three-round fight should favour Brunson.
When I say I can set aside everything else, here’s what I mean: Cannonier has already lost to Whittaker and Brunson has already lost to Adesanya, so as much as both have looked very good outside of those contests, I struggle to see a scenario where either are able to reverse those results or garner a victory over the other potential titleholder.
But that’s a problem for Future Spencer, and it’s not even really a problem because I’m going to watch any and all possible variations of those matchups; it’s just that I’m a little more realistic and upfront about how the next potential title fight is likely to play out.
Israel Adesanya vs. Robert Whittaker
I’ve been waiting for this one since Whittaker started on his comeback trail because for as one-sided as I think we all remember the first fight being, it wasn’t actually that one-sided. I watched it back when putting together my list of the 10 Best UFC Middleweight Title Fights, and while I do think it was a masterful effort by Adesanya, I also came away thinking, “Imagine what a more focused, more collected Whittaker could do?”
Whittaker was reaching a lot during the first meeting — over-committing to shots he’d historically not over-committed to — and against a guy like Adesanya, that is a recipe for disaster. Throughout the eight-minute-and-33-second affair, Adesanya made Whittaker pay for reaching, slipping just out of the way enough to connect with a counter or catch him lunging forward. After dropping him at the end of the first, he flattened him with a left hook just passed the midway point of the second round to unify the titles.
Since then, Adesanya has defended his title three times and come up short in his bid to claim the light heavyweight strap, but only one of those victories was a truly standout performance — his win over Paulo Costa. The rest have been quality efforts where he’s flashed parts of his powers, but not all, which makes me wonder if he’s taken a little step back since completing the journey to the top of the division; not in terms of skills, but in terms of drive and focus.
Meanwhile, Whittaker has gotten back to what carried him to the title in the first place, working combinations and using movement to register three straight unanimous decision victories over Darren Till, Cannonier, and Kelvin Gastelum. We’ve seen greater diversity of skills from Whittaker in the past and that too is something that has me thinking going into this one — will he look to wrestle more and try to neutralize Adesanya’s striking by putting him on the canvas?
This is a captivating contest that will either result in a trilogy bout being required or Adesanya asserting his dominance over the division, and I can’t wait to see how it plays out.
UFC Vegas 48 — Saturday, February 19 at UFC APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada
Johnny Walker vs. Jamahal Hill
This one is here because I’m starting to buy into my friend Sean Sheehan’s whole “Jamahal Hill is going to be light heavyweight champion” forecast a little more with each appearance “Sweet Dreams” makes.
Hill (above) rebounded from getting his elbow dislocated by Paul Craig with a first-round knockout win over Jimmy Crute in 48 seconds at the start of December. While there are still elements of his game that need refinement and developing, there is no denying that the 30-year-old DWCS grad (Class of ‘19) carries dynamite in his hands and is smooth with his strikes. He swears his ground game is strong too, but we haven’t seen it yet, and I doubt we will in this pairing with Walker, which likely ends early with one of them getting clipped.
As much as I’m excited to see Hill back in there quickly, I have to be honest: I hate that it’s against Walker.
Listen, the whole “Johnny Walker is a threat to Jon Jones” thing when he burst onto the scene was cute and fun and people went crazy with it, but he’s 1-3 since all that nonsense reached a fever pitch, and I just don’t understand why a guy coming off a very good win (Hill) gets paired up with a guy coming off a decidedly mediocre losing effort last time out?
I know light heavyweight is short on talent and I don’t necessarily want to see emerging fighters taking each other out before they get into title contention, but I’d much rather have seen Hill get bumped up a little more for a fight with, say, Anthony Smith, than see Walker get another chance to derail an up-and-coming talent.
And he’s capable — which is actually the problem. Walker has skills and power and a freakish reach, but over his last four fights, he’s largely stopped being the guy that lit the division ablaze, and if he’s just going to be a low-output, “take no risks” range fighter, I really don’t need to see him facing a guy like Hill.
/rant
Rafael Dos Anjos vs. Rafael Fiziev
This is an absolutely perfect fight and I cannot wait to see how it plays out.
The former champ Dos Anjos got a very good win over a game Paul Felder in his return to the division, but then was out for the entirety of last year due to some injuries and opponent changes. He moved back to Rio following the Felder win in hopes of really ramping things up for one last run, and is one of those guys at ‘55 that we don’t talk about enough when rattling off the list of contenders.
Be honest: would it really surprise you if Dos Anjos went out and beat Fiziev here? Not me.
What makes it such a delicious pairing is that this is the exact type of test we all want to see for Fiziev, who has passed every test since his first with flying colours. Last time out, he got the better of Brad Riddell in a competitive, entertaining scrap where he incrementally distanced himself from the City Kickboxing man before securing the stoppage. He’s won five straight, taking small steps up the divisional ladder each time, and now gets the chance to mix it up with a former champion.
The winner isn’t necessarily in the title mix, but they’re not far away from getting there either, as Dos Anjos is stationed at No. 6 in the rankings and Fiziev at No. 11. There are a lot of critical matchups on deck in the lightweight division over the next several months, and how they all shakeout will help determine what comes next for the winner of this one, but a date with the loser of one of those marquee matchups sure would make a whole lot of sense to me.
UFC Vegas 49 — Saturday, February 26 at UFC APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada
Armen Tsarukyan vs. Joel Alvarez
Speaking of critical matchups in the lightweight division…
Tsarukyan (above) has been a person of interest in the 155-pound ranks since giving Islam Makhachev a run for his money in his short notice debut three years ago. Since dropping that decision, the 25-year-old has earned four straight victories, most recently collecting a first-round stoppage win over Christos Giagos.
Alvarez is someone I’m fascinated by, but also furious with (not really) because for as terrific as he’s looked during his current four-fight winning streak, he’s missed weight in consecutive outings and that is straight up unacceptable. The Spaniard has tremendous size and length for the division, which aids in his submission efforts, and while he too lost his debut (to Damir Ismagulov), running off consecutive wins over Joseph Duffy, Alexander Yakovlev, and Thiago Moises tells you he’s quality.
It’s wild to me that the winner of this one isn’t likely to crack the Top 10, but that’s how good the upper tier of the 155-pound weight class is right now. That said, the victor will be looking at a date with someone in the Mateusz Gamrot, Gregor Gillespie range (or maybe a vanquished veteran) next time out, and adding their name to the list of dangerous emerging talents looking to make waves in 2022.
Beneil Dariush vs. Islam Makhachev
And then there is this one…
Back in July, I booked the lightweight division after we learned that Charles Oliveira would face Dustin Poirier for the title later in the year. In completing that exercise, I advocated for Dariush to fight Justin Gaethje and Makhachev to face Michael Chandler. Instead, the UFC made the opposite pairings, and while I’m not mad at it, I still like my idea more since Dariush and Makhachev have won seven and nine consecutive fights respectively and that should carry more weight that out-gunning Chandler in a slobberknocker when it comes to the championship chase.
But I digress.
As much as I dislike that one of their ascents is going to hit a snag at the end of the month, this fight itself is infinitely fascinating and going to answer a whole lot of questions about each fighter. This is the toughest assignment either of them has had to date, the kind of big ticket test they each need to pass in order to put themselves on the very short list of possible opponents for the Oliveira-Gaethje winner, and could go any number of ways.
I’d say I can’t wait and I wish it would hurry up and get here already, but there are nine other fights that intrigue the hell out of me before this one and four cards worth of action that I’m dying to see.
February is going to be fun, and this will be an outstanding way to close out the month.