UFC 263 Title View: Flyweight Division
Assessing the situation in the 125-pound weight class ahead of this weekend's champion rematch between Deiveson Figueiredo and Brandon Moreno
Championship fights always feel like the right time to set back and take a wide-angle look at a division; to consider the champion and their impending challenger, whoever is next in line, those that are in the mix, and everyone else that is worth keeping tabs on going forward.
Title fights are the biggest moment for each division, and even though not all divisions are created (or covered) equally, the lead up to when the belt is one the line and the spotlight will ever-so-briefly shine on a given weight class makes sense as the moment to present a detailed accounting of the state of that division.
With two championship fights on the docket for UFC 263 on Saturday, we’re getting started nice and early this week with a detailed look at the flyweight division.
The Champion
Deiveson Figueiredo
Record: 20-1-1 overall, 9-1-1 UFC
Figueiredo was a wrecking machine last year, posting a 3-0-1 record while rising to the top of the flyweight division, partnering with Brandon Moreno in a Fight of the Year contender and claiming Fighter of the Year honours from multiple outlets.
The flamboyant Brazilian missed weight for his first meeting with Joseph Benavidez in February, then faced questions about the impact of an accidental clash of heads after he finished the fan favorite in the second round of that contest. In their second encounter in July, Figueiredo left no doubts about who the better man was, making championship weight without issue and running through Benavidez to claim the flyweight title.
His first title defence against Alex Perez was over before anyone was really settled in to watch the action, as the champion snatched up his neck and forced him to submit in less than two minutes. Emerging without a scratch and having barely broken a sweat, Figueiredo agreed before leaving the venue to defending his title against three weeks later against Moreno; the quickest championship turnaround in UFC history.
That fight was an instant classic, ending in a majority draw after the champion was deducted one point in the third round for an inadvertent, but impactful low blow, which also happened to be his second foul of the evening. The stalemate meant they would do it again right away, but the ante was upped a couple days after the contest when Figueiredo’s manager, Wallid Ismail, revealed his charge spent the early morning hours of Fight Day in the hospital, dealing with an illness that put the fight in jeopardy.
As they prepare to run it back this weekend, it feels very similar to the second fight with Benavidez, as there are lingering questions hovering around the champion that you just know he’s chomping at the bit to answer inside the Octagon on Saturday night.
Over these last four fights, Figueiredo has fought like someone that has figured out he’s just that much better than everyone else and there is no longer any real reason to be hesitant. Instead, he marches forward, throws with vicious intent, and looks to end things as early as possible, all to show he’s on a different level. He did that in the second fight with Benavidez and his bout with Perez, and he absolutely wants to do the same on Saturday night with Moreno.
Big picture, Figueiredo profiles as someone capable of going on an extended reign atop the division, though the fact that he’s already 33 years old means there is a probably a cap on how long he’ll want to make the cut to 125-pounds. That said, he opened a new training facility this year and a reduced schedule compared to last year’s efforts would afford him more time to prepare and get down to championship weight in a healthier manner, potentially extended how long he’ll continue to compete.
Even though he hasn’t even been on top of the division for a year, Figueiredo already feels like one of those champions where I’m going to have to see him lose in order for me to think about picking against him because he’s been that good.
The Challenger
Brandon Moreno
Record: 18-5-2 overall, 6-2-2 UFC
Moreno has grown from being the feel-good figure in the division when he first arrived to a bona fide contender in the span of five years.
When he first showed up after getting bounced in the opening round of flyweight tournament on Season 24 of The Ultimate Fighter, he was a fresh-faced bundle of potential, getting by on toughness, raw talent, and being too young and inexperienced to know he wasn’t supposed to be doing what he was doing.
A couple losses to more seasoned, more polished contenders and the proposed shuttering of the division lead to his being released from the company and a one-fight returning to the regional circuit, but when the division persisted, Moreno was brought back, and he immediately established himself as a contender, showing growth and development from those earlier days. He was still stupid tough (that’s a compliment) and very adept at rising to the occasion, but he’d also sharpened his tools, brandishing a terrific jab to go along with his crafty ground game and overall gameness as a fighter.
Three straight wins capped by a first-round finish of Brandon Royval put him in line to challenge Figueiredo for the title, and after calling him out following his victory at UFC 255, they shared the Octagon at UFC 256 and tore the house down.
The 27-year-old is going to be a fixture at the top of the division for a long, long time — a guy that could certainly carry the title, and someone who will, at the very least, remain in contention for the foreseeable future. His jab is a thing of beauty, he’s slick and aggressive on the ground, working well in transitions and scrambles, and has all the intangibles you look for in a potential titleholder, like toughness, heart, grit, and that Captain America, “I could do this all day” mindset where you’re not going to break his will and make him stop inside the cage.
There is the possibility, of course, that he lands in “The Franklin Zone” if he’s unsuccessful on Saturday and Figueiredo remains atop the flyweight throne, because rarely does a fighter that goes winless in his first two meetings with a reigning champion get a third kick at the can without some serious time between the fights and a ton of success. Benavidez won six fights following his second loss to former champ Demetrious Johnson and never got a third chance to face “Mighty Mouse,” ultimately having to wait for both Johnson and Henry Cejudo, whom he’d beaten, to clear out before fighting for gold again.
Moreno can avoid that fate by going out and winning the title this weekend, and he’s certainly capable of doing so, especially now that he’s got 25 minutes of experience inside the Octagon with Figueiredo to draw from heading into the rematch.
The Next Man Up
Askar Askarov
Record: 14-0-1 overall, 3-0-1 UFC
The undefeated Askarov is the obvious No. 1 contender at the moment, having battled Moreno to a shaky draw in his debut and followed it up by rattling off three straight victories over Tim Elliott, Alexandre Pantoja, and Joseph Benavidez. Along the way, the partially deaf Russian has shown crisp hands, quality grappling, and zero drop off as he’s climbed the competitive ladder, looking better with each subsequent appearance.
How things shake out on Saturday will obviously have an impact on what the second half of the year looks like for Askarov, as a win for Figueiredo would likely set up a fall or winter date between the two for the title, while a Moreno victory could potentially delay things, depending on whether or not the UFC wants to hustle into a trilogy bout, or even considers one. The good thing for Askarov is that he has a history with Moreno, so unless a third bout is required, he should be fighting for gold before the year is out.
If there is any area for concern or reason for pause with Askarov, it’s that he missed weight for his fight with Benavidez in March, coming in at 127.5 pounds, a full 2.5 pounds above the championship limit. That doesn’t sound like a lot of weight, but when you’re that small to begin with, trimming an extra 2.5 pounds is rough, and can take a great deal out of you, so it’s certainly something to watch whenever he’s slated to return, especially if he’s facing a matchup with no weight allowance.
From a skill standpoint, Askarov is a complete package, showcasing strong boxing and wrestling, though he’s yet to flash much power and is thus far more of a “beat you on the cards” type of guy since arriving in the UFC. He’s still a little rough around the edges, but some of that comes from still only being 15 fights into his career and four fights deep into his UFC journey, and will be smoothed out as he continues to improve, continues to work with high level coaches and training partners, and continues to grow into his final form.
In the Mix
Alexandre Pantoja: the 31-year-old feels like he’s replaced Jussier Formiga as the perennial Top 5 talent who just can’t beat the absolute apex guys and get himself a title shot, as Pantoja is 7-3 in 10 UFC starts, but 0-2 in his last two “punch my ticket to contention” opportunities. He does, however, own both a win on TUF 24 and an actual UFC win over Moreno, so if he can continue treading water in the Top 5, a title win for Moreno could be his ticket to a championship opportunity in the future.
Alex Perez: the Team Oyama representative turned in back-to-back dominant efforts in his first two 2020 appearances, submitting Jordan Espinosa before chopping down Formiga to earn his title shot, where he got choked out in a heartbeat. He’s lost to the two best fighters he’s face and needs to secure a marquee win and have Figueiredo dethroned before he’ll get another title shot, but like Pantoja, Perez has the skills to hang around the championship picture for the foreseeable future.
Joseph Benavidez: he turns 37 at the end of next month and is currently on a three-fight losing streak, so Benavidez probably shouldn’t be considered “in the mix” any more, but it’s my space and I want to give the perennial contender a shout out. Plus, would you really be surprised if he went out and beat one of the other men in this grouping next time out? Okay, I would be surprised too, but I’m also hesitant to call someone with as extensive a resume as Benavidez “washed” before I see him lose to someone I can’t see him losing to, you know?
Brandon Royval: his loss to Moreno last November is recorded as a TKO due to punches, but it’s more because his shoulder popped out of the socket, which isn’t to say he was going to win the fight, but just that he didn’t get steamrolled and stopped the way it looks on his resume. Royval is a scrambly, opportunistic fighter who earned good wins over Tim Elliott and Kai Kara-France before that fight, and is slated to face Pantoja later this year in a bout that could determine the next No. 1 contender.
Kai Kara-France: “Don’t Blink” lived up to his sobriquet last time out, dropping Rogerio Bontorin late in the first round to cap a furious comeback. The 28-year-old TUF alum and City Kickboxing representative has real power in his hands and a wealth of experience, but is lacking the kind of signature victory to put him on the short list of potential contenders at the moment.
The Wild Card
Tim Elliott: it might seem weird singling out a 34-year-old with a 6-9 record inside the Octagon as “the wild card” in this division, but Elliott is 2-0 since relocating back to Missouri and reconnecting with James Krause and I just want to put it out there that he could be someone that makes a little noise in the division when everyone isn’t looking.
Additionally, Elliott is one of those guys where his record alone doesn’t tell the full story because his first three losses came to title challengers (John Dodson, Benavidez, Ali Bagautinov), another came against former champ Demetrious Johnson, one came against Figueiredo, and the last two were opposite Askarov and Royval. So of his nine UFC loss, seven of them are against Top 5 competition or better, which isn’t the same as going 6-9 against a bunch of middle tier talent.
He’s slated to face Sumudaerji later this month, and how that one shakes out will determine whether this designation has legs or not.
The Next Wave
David Dvorak: Dvorak did what you’re supposed to do when you’re matched up with a short-notice replacement a couple days before a fight, making quick work of Juancamillo Ronderos to secure his third straight UFC win and extend his winning streak to 16. “The Undertaker” is a complete fighter and someone who should find himself battling for position in the upper echelon of the division in the not too distant future.
Raulian Paiva: the Brazilian was supposed to face Dvorak last month, but was scratched a couple days before the fight. He has incredible height and length for the division, and has rebounded from losing his first two UFC appearances with consecutive victories. Paiva is only 25 years old, but already has a 20-3 record, so another leap and continued success is far from out of the question.
Sumudaerji: “The Tibetan Eagle” moved to flyweight at the end of last year, lighting up Malcolm Gordon in his divisional debut. He outworked a game Zarrukh Adashev earlier this year to score another win, pushing his winning streak to three, and looks like someone that is poised to take a big step forward in the next year or two, at most. If he beats Elliott later this month, that big step will follow.
Matheus Nicolau: back in the UFC after a two-fight absence, Nicolau got back into the win column with a victory over Manel Kape earlier this year. A victim of the initial flyweight purge, the Brazilian never should have been released and profiles as someone that could make a push for contention, depending on the matchups, over the next 18 months. He’s crafty and skilled and 4-1 in the UFC, so a quality win in a higher profile pairing should bring him closer to the Top 10.
Amir Albazi: “The Prince” is 2-0 in the UFC and 14-1 overall, making him one of the more intriguing prospects in the division at the moment. He too followed up a quick finish of Malcolm Gordon with a hard-fought decision win in his sophomore outings, which put him on a three-fight winning streak. Albazi needs to face and beat a couple more established names before he could be consider a contender, but the early returns have been promising and he’s someone to keep track of going forward.
Bruno Silva: consecutive hellacious finishes have Silva positioned as the most intriguing fighter in the division at the moment, which feels weird because he entered the year as “Henry Cejudo’s overrated training partner.” Fighting with greater urgency and confidence, Silva has earned two impressive stoppages already this year and one more should expedite his ascent into the Top 10, if not title contention, depending on whom he faces.
Other Names to Know
Manel Kape: there was a lot of buzz around Kape joining the UFC flyweight ranks at the start of the year, but consecutive decision losses where he simply wasn’t active enough have quieted down all that chatter about Kape being a title contender. He’s looked too good in the past to be completely dismissed, but “Starboy” needs a couple strong outings before he’s going to get consideration for a place in the Top 10 and another marquee assignment.
Jeff Molina: the Contender Series grad won his promotional debut a couple months back, turning up the pace over the final two rounds to outwork newcomer Aoriqileng and extend his winning streak to eight. Another James Krause protege, “El Jefe” still has some holes to patch up in his game, but the 23-year-old has a ton of potential and is definitely someone to track over the next few years.
Ode Osbourne: a 26-second win over Jerome Rivera earlier this year rekindled interest in Osbourne, a Contender Series alum who trains with the Pura Vida BJJ crew in Milwaukee and showed promise on the talent search series. He’s slated to make his divisional debut next month against Albazi and a victory there, especially a spectacular one, would hustle him into the Top 15 and make him an intriguing new addition to the weight class heading into the summer.
Tagir Ulanbekov: the 12-1 Russian outworked Silva in his debut last October to extend his winning streak to four, but he’s been unable to get back into the Octagon since, as he was forced to withdraw from a proposed bout with Nicolau earlier this year. He’s scheduled to face Hawaiian veteran Tyson Nam later this month and if he looks good there, expect Ulanbekov to get a bit more of a push in the second half of the year and beyond.