UFC 264: Defining the Stakes for Poirier-McGregor 3
UFC 264: Defining the Stakes for Poirier-McGregor 3
What's on the line when Dustin Poirier and Conor McGregor collide in their main event rubber match this weekend?
Saturday’s trilogy fight between Dustin Poirier and Conor McGregor is easily the biggest fight thus far in 2021, carrying a different collection of stakes than we’ve seen in any other bout this year, even though there is no title hanging in the balance.
There have been other important fights, meaningful fights, consequential fights, but nothing of this magnitude.
This one is different. This one is bigger. This one deserves unpacking.
Here’s a look at what’s at stake on Saturday night at UFC 264.
Legacy
Dustin Poirier
The last fight had an immediate and meaningful impact on the legacy of the 32-year-old from Lafayette, Louisiana, elevating him to a different tier in the pantheon in the wake of that victory. Here’s what I wrote the day after the fight:
It’s okay to re-evaluate where Poirier fits amongst the best lightweights on the planet and the best lightweights of all time following his incredible performance at UFC 257.
That’s what a performance like that should do — it should force people to re-think where he stands and make adjustments according to what we just saw, rather than simply stick to past evidence and refuse to change.
Poirier may not have been in the conversation for the greatest lightweights of all time prior to Saturday night, but he certainly has to be on the short list of the best active lightweights right now, which in turn has to move him up a couple positions in the hierarchy of 155-pound greats.
If Poirier follows up his January second-round finish of McGregor with a second consecutive victory over McGregor this weekend, he’ll climb even higher in the hierarchy, putting him in the running to be the second-best lightweight in UFC history, as Brian Campbell and Luke Thomas discussed on their UFC 264’s Five Biggest Questions episode of Morning Kombat on Monday.
That might seem like a lofty position for someone that hasn’t ever held the undisputed title, but a quick look at his resume makes it a conversation worth having should “The Diamond” come away victorious on Saturday. Poirier would be 12-2 (1 NC) with an interim title victory, tandem wins over McGregor, and victories over Max Holloway, Eddie Alvarez, Justin Gaethje, Dan Hooker, Anthony Pettis, and several others.
There are others that have had longer runs, more victories, but in terms of strength of schedule and a condensed window for building a resume, that’s pretty damn good, and he’s beaten quite a few of the guys you might want to argue deserve to be ahead of him in the pecking order.
What’s really interesting (to me at least) is that there isn’t much of a downside here for Poirier as far as I’m concerned. He’d be 11-3 (1 NC) at lightweight with victories over three former champions, a former interim champion, a long-reigning featherweight titleholder, and a bunch of other quality competitors; he’s still in the mix as a potential all-time Top 5 lightweight in the UFC, a main event draw, and a top shelf fighter.
If he loses on Saturday, no one is coming away thinking less of Dustin Poirier, but if he wins, it changes everything.
Conor McGregor
The weird thing about this fight (to me) is that Saturday’s main event carries the inverse legacy ramifications for McGregor then it does for Poirier.
It’s not that there is nothing to gain for McGregor with a victory on Saturday — winning the series against a standout like Poirier is a terrific resume-booster — but not only is he going to remain a superstar regardless of the outcome, but given that he’s the first two-weight world champion in UFC history and was, in my opinion, the best fighter on the planet for a couple years (January 2015 to December 2016, at least), the Irishman’s standing amongst the all-time greats is already pretty secure.
Where he fits is up for debate (and it can be a very frustrating, tedious debate), but he’s up there, and beating Poirier a second time doesn’t change that all that much.
But a second consecutive loss is going to kick off another round of the moronic “How good was he in the first place?” conversations that bubbled up following UFC 257 in January, and while I don’t think it changes his overall standing, it does turn McGregor’s UFC career into a distinct tale of two halves.
The first half saw McGregor go 9-1, avenging that setback while winning both the featherweight and lightweight titles. He became the biggest star in the sport, one of the biggest stars in the sporting world period, and was starting to put together the makings of a “Could he be an all-time Top 5 fighter in the UFC?” kind of career. The dude that lit up Eddie Alvarez at Madison Square Garden looked poised to run roughshod over the division and reign for a while, and then, he switched it up.
The second half of McGregor’s UFC career consists of his last three bouts and this one coming up on Saturday, which will be his fourth bout in the last four-and-a-half years. He’s 1-2 with stoppage losses to Nurmagomedov and Poirier and a win over Donald Cerrone, who had been finished in his two previous bouts and would go on to get stopped in two of his next three as well. If you tack another loss on there and it becomes 1-3 with consecutive defeats, the conversation changes.
McGregor becomes one of those guys that had an absolutely incredible apex, but burned out hard, trading mixed martial arts icon status for fame and fortune and everything else he’s collected over the nearly five years since his transcendent showing against Alvarez. The second half of his career becomes a conversation about what could have been, what might have been, and, for me, how disappointing it all was given how great he looked in the first half.
He remains a massive draw and a guy that can still call his shots in terms of future matchups, but he’s some of that sheen will have worn off, especially if he gets finished again. If he’s stopped by Poirier on Saturday, McGregor will be 3-4 in his last seven fights and have been stopped in each of them, and at some point, that takes a toll, even on superstars with a mainstream following.
Lightweight Title Shot
Dustin Poirier
Everyone knows and understands by this point (or at least they should) that Poirier chose the hefty payday that comes with running it back with McGregor this weekend over fighting for the vacant lightweight title earlier this year, banking on the fact (small pun intended) that he a victory while securing the bag on Saturday will lead to a chance to secure the belt later this year.
It was undeniably right move for Poirier and 100 percent how things will shake out should he come away with the victory on Saturday.
As mentioned above, he’d have a slightly longer road to a second shot at the undisputed title if he were to lose this weekend, but could you really see it taking more than two, maximum three good wins for the man most people currently consider the best lightweight in the UFC to get back into the title conversation?
Poirier made the smart play by betting on himself, and it will be interesting to see if he can cash that ticket this weekend.
Conor McGregor
While a victory would result in an immediate title shot for Poirier, I think it would produce more of a “Redeem for One UFC Lightweight Title Shot” voucher type situation for McGregor, who doesn’t strike me as the kind of guy that is in a hurry to challenge the dangerous, but less marketable Charles Oliveira for the lightweight strap.
McGregor likes big game hunting even more than he likes collecting gold, and a win over Poirier this weekend would give him an automatic, use at your leisure pass to out himself in a title fight whenever the right opponent sits atop the throne or he wants to reframe the conversation around himself, which is actually more valuable than the title itself given that he’s already been there and done that.
Win or lose this weekend, I can see “The Notorious” one taking aim at a third fight with Nathan Diaz next, pushing an “after settling one rivalry, why not wrap up another” kind of angle to set up another monstrous payday, especially given that Diaz is coming off consecutive losses.
Another name to listen for if he wins? Kamaru Usman. If you don’t think McGregor will try to get himself a championship opportunity up in weight while Usman’s next challenger is TBD, you haven't been paying attention to how McGregor operates.
If he loses and doesn’t call out Diaz, don’t be surprised if he calls out Jorge Masvidal, another big name that draws eyeballs regardless of his recent results.
Short version: I don’t think he’s pushing for a lightweight title fight following a victory on Saturday night, though he’ll be more than happy to tuck that “We Owe You One” coupon in his back pocket for safe keeping.
Bragging Rights
Dustin Poirier
“The Diamond” is too classy to wave a series win around frequently, arrogantly, but if you think being able to hold a 2-1 edge over McGregor’s head for all eternity won’t bring the ultra-competitive, achievement-oriented Poirier some satisfaction, you’re mistaken.
He’ll certainly take greater pleasure in what a second win means in the totality of his career and in taking the next step towards claiming the undisputed title, but even without what comes next and where it puts him in the pantheon, there is something nice about being able to self-identify as the guy that holds a pair of victories over the biggest superstar in UFC history.
You know how Nathan Diaz talks about everything he’s accomplished at lightweight and how he’s already beaten everyone that matters? It would be like that, only Poirier would have actually beaten everyone that matters (in the last bunch of years), save for Khabib, whom nobody beat, including two straight against McGregor.
Poirier would never wield it like a braggart (“Hey — I beat Conor McGregor twice, you know!”) but it would be a significant achievement he could point to in just about any situation where he’s not getting the respect his resume commands.
Conor McGregor
The brash Irishman didn’t even wait until Fight Week in order to start declaring what facing him three times will do to Poirier, so if you think he’s not going to flex his Twitter fingers and bump his gums about getting the upper hand in his series with “The Diamond,” again, you haven’t been paying attention to how McGregor operates.
Where Poirier would, in all likelihood, operate with nothing but class, McGregor would, most likely, downplay his loss in the middle fight in the series, suggesting it was just a matter of ring rust and those pesky low kicks he wasn’t prepared for, while offering patronizing praise of his rival. I can hear it in my head and I already don’t like the way it sounds.
While he has exhibited class and grace at times in the past, McGregor also loves to flaunt his victories whenever he can, and this would be one of those times, guaranteed.
Fighter of the Year
Dustin Poirier
A second victory over McGregor on Saturday would put Poirier in the thick of the Fighter of the Year race, which is currently being led by Usman, with Beneil Dariush, Francis Ngannou, Max Holloway, and Charles Oliveira rounding out the Top 5 in our staff picks at the midway point at UFC.com.
It would also, as discussed earlier, put him in a position to challenge Oliveira for the lightweight title later this year (barring injuries and unforeseen circumstances), and a win there would make him tough to beat in the Fighter of the Year race.
This one is several tiers below each of the first three items listen in this piece in terms of significance, but it’s still something to keep in mind heading into Saturday night.
Conor McGregor
While losing the first fight of the year would make getting back into the contending pack in the Fight of the Year race difficult for McGregor, he lost his first fight of 2016 and ended the year as the unanimous selection, so don’t rule it out.
Listen, I think it’s a long shot, but let’s say he beats Poirier and calls out Usman, as discussed above, who accepts the fight because why wouldn’t he? And rather than Usman grinding out a victory, “The Nigerian Nightmare” makes the mistake of spending a little too long standing and trading with the swift-fisted Irishman and McGregor claims the welterweight title in December.
You telling me he’s not Fighter of the Year?
First guy to win championship gold in three different weight classes, and he won his trilogy fight with Dustin Poirier? That’s Fighter of the Year to me.
This is a massive fight with plenty on the line, and rather than retroactively talk about what all changed once the smoke clears and the dust settles, I wanted to put this out there ahead of time so that more people have a genuine understanding of what’s at stake this weekend, because the more you know, the easier it is to get invested.
Plus, I’d much rather talk about stuff like this in advance, take a couple stabs at things we might see or hear in the immediate aftermath of the fight, and get people buzzing for Saturday’s festivities than sit back and just react to whatever transpires.
Thanks for reading and tune in tomorrow for more UFC 264 pre-event coverage.