UFC 265: Punch Drunk Predictions
Who will leave Houston as the interim heavyweight champion — Derrick Lewis or Ciryl Gane?
We’re just one more sleep away from UFC 265, where the interim heavyweight title fight between Derrick Lewis and Ciryl Gane will close out an outstanding pay-per-view main card and overall lineup, while kicking off what should be an electric stretch of numbered events to wrap up 2021.
Part of what makes this cards so compelling to me is that you could make a cogent argument for either fighter winning each of the five main card matchups, which makes the exercise that follows a little more dicey, but means the action on Saturday night should be competitive and thoroughly enjoyable. And sure, there are some people that will tell you Fighter X has zero chance of beating Fighter Y and they might end up being proven correct, but on paper, skill-for-skill, style-against-style, these are five close, competitive bouts where the athletes in the red and blue corners have a relatively equal chance of emerging victorious.
Don't believe me?
The odds as of this writing show only one bout where there is a fighter that is a greater than 2-1 favorite, and that’s the main event, where Gane currently clocks in at -350 to Lewis’ +275, and that’s one of those spots where the better bet is siding with Lewis to land the death touch somewhere along the way. Everything else is in the pick’em range, with no favorite coming in above -138 and no underdog returning more than +110 money.
If you are the gambling type, this feels like an individual wagers night to me, as opposed to spot where hitting a couple parlays carries reasonable potential, but I’m not a bettor and I won’t tell you how to spend your bankroll, other than maybe to suggest subscribing to this here newsletter and putting $5 a month in your pal ESK’s pocket.
These fights should be fun and should be competitive, and here’s who I think emerges victorious.
These are the UFC 265 Punch Drunk Predictions.
Please enjoy responsibly.
Derrick Lewis vs. Ciryl Gane
Lewis is the only fighter on the roster that I honestly feel comfortable saying “He only needs one and it doesn’t matter when it lands” about without hesitation. Dude wields “The Touch of Death” in there and whether things are just getting started or he’s 24 minutes into getting out-hustled, if he puts one of those lunchboxes at the end of his arms upside your head, you’re going down.
You may not go out, but you’re going down and he’s going to unleash hellfire in hopes of sealing the deal.
As a result, he is the livest of dogs every single time he steps into the Octagon, however I think Gane is rightfully a reasonable favorite here and believe that eight times out of 10, the unbeaten French standout is going to get the better of Lewis, and this weekend will be one of those times.
I know people don’t always love Gane’s aptitude for fighting from range and constantly staying within himself, but it’s beautiful to watch and what has always made him such a compelling fighter to track as he was working his way up the ranks. While he will attack when he’s got you hurt or an obvious opening presents itself, the 31-year-old is capable of and content to land between five and eight significant strikes per minute, chipping away, scoring points, while doing a masterful job of avoiding eating anything serious in return.
Unless Lewis lands one of those bombs that upsets Gane’s equilibrium and creates an opportunity for “The Black Beast” to finish, this should play out similarly to the undefeated rising star’s last two victories — patient, technical work at range, smart defensive movements, and a clean sweep of the scorecards.
Prediction: Ciryl Gane by unanimous decision
Jose Aldo vs. Pedro Munhoz
The fact that this is a three-round fight makes it a little more competitive to me, as I think a five-round affair would have really benefitted Munhoz. That being said, I still think the ninth-ranked bantamweight gets the job done.
Aldo has been okay, but not great since moving to the 135-pound ranks, registering one win in three fights and tiring down the stretch of each of those contest. Now, he was able to turn to his grappling in the third round last time out against Marlon Vera and secure a victory, but that had as much to do with “Chito” racing forward too aggressively and basically handing Aldo the dominant position he maintained throughout the rest of the round as it did Aldo really working his way to back mount.
Munhoz isn’t going to make those kinds of mistakes and he’s not the kind of guy that you can just stand in there and go shot-for-shot with either, at least not in my estimation if you’re Aldo.
The American Top Team representative has a straightforward approach to his stand up, but he varies his offerings well, mixing in thudding low kicks, body work, and generally sharp boxing to wear guys out, because he’s also been blessed with a granite chin. At this stage in his career, Aldo isn’t the dynamic finisher he was during his WEC run and early UFC days, and I just don’t think that he’s going to be able to withstand the unrelenting barrage of offence Munhoz will bring his way this weekend either.
Aldo is tough to put away and if it’s going to happen, it’s going to happen late, but the more likely scenario is a unanimous decision win for Munhoz and a Fight of the Night bonus for the two Brazilians.
Prediction: Pedro Munhoz by unanimous decision
Michael Chiesa vs. Vicente Luque
I’m torn on this one because every fight starts standing and I think Luque has a significant edge on the feet, plus he’s quick to lace up chokes if guys get a little lazy with the entries and takedown attempts. But, I also think Chiesa has been outstanding since moving to welterweight, does a really good job of staying technical with his wrestling and has a different kind of control when he does get the fight to the ground that just about anyone else in the division.
So it really comes down to whether Chiesa can get Luque to the canvas efficiently and effectively once a round and keep him there without getting caught somewhere along the way? I think he can.
Look — Luque is outstanding and a miserable matchup for just about anyone in the division because he’s able to finish in so many different ways and isn’t afraid to bang it out in order to create those fight-ending opportunities, but I think his loss to Leon Edwards can be instructive here, as Edwards is a long, tall southpaw that was able to get the better of things in the clinch, from the front headlock position, and on the canvas in the second and third rounds, neutralizing Luque’s weapons and grinding him out over 15 minutes.
We’ve seen Chiesa deploy a similar approach against Rafael Dos Anjos and Neil Magny over his last two fights and I see no reason why he would switch it up or stop being successful with it here.
Prediction: Michael Chiesa by unanimous decision
Tecia Torres vs. Angela Hill
Torres used her wrestling to get the better of Hill the first time they met more than six years ago, but I think that won’t be as much of an option this time around as Hill has become a much better defensive wrestler and more confident in her ability to get back to her feet if she does get put on the deck. As such, this one comes down to being a striking battle and despite giving up a couple inches in height and reach, I still have to side with Torres.
The point of differentiation for me is movement, as Torres does a better job of getting in, getting off, and getting out, whereas Hill is more of a “bang it out in the pocket” type of striker, and while both are typically high output fighters, I genuinely believe Torres’ ability to avoid a few more shots over the course of three rounds is going to be what gives her an edge here.
For all the hype/praise/love Hill garnered last year, her best performance was a narrow, debatable loss to Claudia Gadelha, who really hasn’t looked all that great in the last two or three years. There were moments in that fight where she looked excellent, but again, it wasn't a convincing, unquestionable victory, and I’m just not sure she’s meant to be more than exactly who she is heading into this contest — someone that resides in the 10-12 range in the division, is a perpetual tough out, but just a little behind the pack that got their start in the sport a little earlier and have a slightly more well-rounded skill set.
If Torres moves and attacks with the confidence we saw in each of her last two outings, she’ll leave Houston on a three-fight winning streak.
Prediction: Tecia Torres by unanimous decision
Song Yadong vs. Casey Kenney
I have a feeling that this will be the fight where people start getting back on the Song Yadong bandwagon.
Kenney is a quality fighter that is tough to put away and can be a menace against those that are unprepared to defend his myriad takedown attempts and work from range, but I think Song can do all of those things, plus he’s quicker and more powerful, and I think those elements produce another highlight reel finish for “The Kung Fu Monkey” on Saturday.
Between tough assignments and the traditional stumble every emerging star has at some point our another, I’m willing to chalk Song’s last three or four bouts up as really great learning experiences that will ultimately make him a much better fighter, starting this weekend.
Kenney did an admirable job against Dominick Cruz last time out, but he also got touched up by the former champ. While they’re very different fighters stylistically, if Song lands with the same kind of frequency that Cruz did a few months ago, one of those shots is going to put Kenney on the deck and create the opportunity to finish I think Song will seize.
Prediction: Song Yadong by TKO
Preliminary Card Picks
Rafael Fiziev def. Bobby Green
Vince Morales def. Drako Rodriguez
Alonzo Menifield def. Ed Herman
Karolina Kowalkiewicz def. Jessica Penne
Ode’ Osbourne def. Manel Kape
Miles Johns def. Anderson dos Santos
Melissa Gatto def. Victoria Leonardo
Johnny Munoz Jr. def. Jamey Simmons
2021 PDP Record: 164-129-3, 4 NC (.547)