UFC 266: One Question for Every Fight
Want to know what intrigues me about each and every matchup slated to hit the Octagon on Saturday night in Las Vegas?
This one is pretty straightforward; the title tells you everything you need to know: every Wednesday, I’ll tell you the most pressing question I have about every single fight on that weekend’s card; from the main event to the opening bout of the evening.
Because as much as fights are about entertaining action and wins and losses, I think of them more in terms of answering questions that I have about the combatants — what they’ve improved, where they stand, how their styles meld or diverge — and because this is the stuff that interests me the most, I thought I would start sharing it with you in an effort to [a] give you a little more insight on how my brain works, [b] give you something to think about before each fight on the card, and [c] set the table for my post-fight coverage, since these are the things I’ll be watching for most closely on a given Saturday night.
Sound fun?
Well, even if it doesn’t, here we go.
Volkanovski vs. Ortega: Will Volkanovski be the aggressor?
Alexander Volkanovski let the fight come to him in each of his two meetings with Max Holloway, happy to operate in the range the Hawaiian set, confident that he would be able to interrupt his timing at times and land enough counter shots while largely staying on the outside to disrupt Holloway’s flow and win enough rounds to garner a victory.
He was successful with it both times, though opinions on those verdicts vary, depending on who you ask.
Taking that approach in those two high profile pairings seems to have clouded the way people think of the featherweight champion as a fighter, causing them to forget that prior to those contests, the Australia was more often than naught the one leading the dance, taking the fight to Jeremy Kennedy, Darren Elkins, Chad Mendes, and Jose Aldo as he climbed the divisional ladder.
Heading into Saturday, I’m curious to see if Volkanovski will be the aggressor against Ortega, because while I know the champion can fight from either role, I believe the clearer path to victory is to press the challenger and force him to be on the back foot, responding to what’s coming at him, rather than dictating the terms of engagement.
I’d rather force Ortega to show me the defensive adjustments he’s made since his drubbing at the hands of Holloway nearly three years ago, and show me that he has conditioning to match my pace, rather than allow him to set the tempo and march forward.
I think Volkanovski can win the fight no matter how it shakes out and who is leading the dance, but his most emphatic efforts thus far inside the Octagon have come when he’s been the aggressor and I know from speaking to him ahead of this one that he wants to make a statement on Saturday night.
Shevchenko vs. Murphy: Can Murphy make it ugly?
It’s a simple question and an extremely difficult task to accomplish, but if Lauren Murphy has any hopes of tearing the flyweight title away from Valentina Shevchenko, she’s going to have to make their five-round co-main event on Saturday a grimy affair.
That means getting inside and out-muscling Shevchenko along the fence and in the clinch. It means getting to top position if the fight hits the ground and doing some damage with elbows and punches. It means being aggressive and crowding the champion, knowing that you’re going to get hit coming in, and being able to do all that for 25 minutes because if Amanda Nunes couldn’t stop Shevchenko in either of their meetings, I just don’t see Murphy accomplishing the feat this weekend, even though the way you have to fight her is to get after her like you’re going to put her away.
That’s the tricky thing with facing Shevchenko: you can’t try to fight her from the outside because she’s a better counter-striker and better at point-fighting than everyone in the division, and you can’t just hang out in the pocket because she’ll blast you with a high kick like she did Jessica Eye.
You have to come forward hard and fast and try to put it on her, which is incredibly difficult, because she moves extremely well and has every tool you could possible imagine at her disposal. You almost have to fight every minute like you’re down 0-2 in a three-round fight and have to get a stoppage, and then maintain that for the duration of the fight.
Again, it’s a huge ask, which is why I’m so eager to see if Murphy can do it.
Diaz vs. Lawler: What will Nick Diaz do?
Listen, I would like to pretend I was surprised by Diaz’s 11th hour request to have the fight contested at middleweight, but as his younger brother Nathan once said, “I’m not surprised, motherfuckers.”
For everyone asking, “Could Nick Diaz have waited until 72-hours before he was supposed to fight to figure out he couldn’t make welterweight?” like it’s an impossibility, my answer is, “Yeah, that’s probably exactly what he did” because I’m sure in the back of his mind, he was like, “Well, I can always ask them to make a middleweight fight and if they say ‘No’ or Robbie says ‘No,’ I’ll just be out.”
With all that said, I’ve been trying to figure out for the last couple days what to reasonably expect from Diaz and I genuinely have no clue. The dude laid down in the center of the Octagon and turned and stuck his butt out like he was getting ready to twerk last time out, against Anderson Silva no less, so all bets are off.
I’d like to believe we’re going to see a focused Diaz, an in-shape, ready-to-go, throwback to his best days Diaz, but I don’t know if that’s going to happen. We’re probably just as likely to see a disinterested Diaz that pulls out more posing, most gesticulating, and offers fewer strikes than he did six years ago against Silva as we are to see anything else.
I’d even be willing to put $5 I didn’t care about on Diaz not even showing up on Saturday night because would that really be that shocking to anyone?
Nothing is out of the realm of possibility here.
Blaydes vs. Rozenstruik: Has Blaydes learned from his mistakes?
Curtis Blaydes was handily beating Derrick Lewis earlier this year, right up until the point that he wasn’t and the fight ended.
For the first six minutes of their main event encounter in February, Blaydes was out-boxing “The Black Beast,” working from range, letting his hands go, landing quality shots and avoiding the scattered return fire coming his way. Then, he looked to change levels and drive forward on a naked takedown attempt and Lewis blasted him with an uppercut that instantly turned out Blaydes’ lights.
Lewis was credited with landing seven significant strikes in the entire fight, two in the second round — the one that dropped Blaydes, and the unnecessary follow-up when he was flat on his back, deep in the Odinsleep.
Now he returns against Rozenstruik, someone he’s rightfully pegged as a bit of a Lewis replica for his desire to land that one clean blow rather than throw volume, and I’m eager to see if he’s learned from the mistakes of that last fight, because if he hasn’t, “Bigi Boy” is more than capable of sending him back to Dreamland on Saturday.
Blaydes is a phenomenal talent with all the attributes you could want in a heavyweight contender — he’s quick and agile, a quality wrestler with developing hands, a clear nasty streak, and he’s only 30 years old. On paper, he profiles as a guy that should be a contender for quite some time and maybe even champion, but his loss to Lewis showed a decision-making flaw and it’s one that he needs to correct in order to get moving in the right direction again.
Naked takedown attempts are always dangerous, and they’re especially risky against behemoths with fight-ending power, so I’m curious to see what Blaydes and his coaches with the Elevation Fight Team have done in terms of setting up those shots, using feints, and just working from in close without hunting for a takedown this time around, because he had some success landing on the exit after bailing on takedowns against Lewis back in February.
If he’s made the necessary adjustments and learned from his error against Lewis, there are clear avenues to victory for Blaydes.
Andrade vs. Calvillo: Is Calvillo a real contender?
I honestly have no feel for where Cynthia Calvillo fits in the flyweight division and what her future holds.
She’s older than I think most people imagine (34) and she has one of those resumes where the numbers look good and the names are recognizable, yet I’m somehow still not all that impressed because her best win is either a triumph over a somewhat checked out and destined for flyweight Joanne Calderwood or a good, but not great unanimous decision win over Jessica Eye, who continues to struggle.
This fight with Andrade is a perfect measuring stick opportunity because you know what to expect from the Brazilian and where she stands in the division, and how Calvillo acquits herself on Saturday should go a long way in dictating what her next couple fights look like after this.
If she wins, she’s legitimately in the title conversation, even though she lost to Katlyn Chookagian last time out; that’s just how it goes in a division with a dominant champion and a clear No. 2.
If she loses, I can a path were she becomes the veteran name in the middle of the Top 10 that gets lined up opposite the emerging names in the division, and I’m not sure how fights with the likes of Alexa Grasso, Miranda Maverick, or Erin Blanchfield would play out, if I’m being honest.
Like I said, I have no real feel for where she fits and I’m looking forward to getting a better read on that this weekend.
Moraes vs. Dvalishvili: Is Marlon Moraes just done being a contender?
Marlon Moraes fought for the vacant bantamweight title just over two years ago…
That sounds impossible to me when I read it, but it’s the truth — he fought Henry Cejudo at UFC 238 on June 8, 2019, starting out well before getting stopped early in the third round, resulting in Cejudo earning a second title and adopting the “Triple C” moniker I’ve heard too many times in the subsequent 837 days.
Since then, Moraes edged out Jose Aldo in a solid, but unspectacular fight at UFC 245 and got stopped by Cory Sandhagen and Rob Font, sending him into this bout against Merab Dvalishvili with a 1-3 record over his last four and some serious questions to answer on Saturday night.
While Dvalishvili isn’t a threat to finish, he’s unrelenting with his pressure and takedowns, and if Morales can’t make him pay when they’re in space, make him work exceptionally hard to get said takedowns, or find a submission in those grappling exchanges, it’s going to be a long night for the Brazilian.
On paper, based on reputation and resume, this is still a fight Moraes should win, but I’m really not sure if he’s still the guy that was an instant contender upon arriving from WSOF. It feels weird saying that based on stoppages losses to Sandhagen and Font, a pair of legitimate Top 5 talents, but we’ve seen perennial title threats just up and fall off a cliff many times before and I’m curious to find out if that is what has happened with Moraes.
That’s not to say the only way Dvalishvili wins is if Moraes is, in fact, washed — “The Machine” is a very good fighter and his pace, conditioning, and wrestling make him an intriguing figure in the 135-pound weight class — but this fight should help clarify where Moraes stands, and that’s what piques my interest the most about this Saturday’s final preliminary card fight.
Hooker vs. Haqparast: Can they please both win?
Given everything that has transpired in the build up to this fight — Haqparast’s mother passing away, Hooker having visa issues, Haqparast having visa issues, both having to cut weight mid-transit — is it possible to just say they both win, pay them both their full purses, and let them have fun beating the bejesus out of each other on Saturday night without the pressure of winning or losing hanging over them?
This is a crucial bout for each man — Hooker enters on a two-fight skid, Haqparast is trying to break into the Top 15 — but the run-up to Saturday has been decidedly less than ideal, which makes me feel like no matter how this one plays out, there is going to be an asterisk attached to it, which is both understandable, and unfair to both men, regardless of who wins.
What’s going to be wild — and I genuinely think this is a possibility — is when these two, despite all the obstacles and challenges they’ve face on the road to UFC 266, still combine to deliver the Fight of the Night.
Abdurakhimov vs. Daukaus: What is Chris Daukaus’ ceiling?
Chris Daukaus is 3-0 in the UFC and the most time he’s spent in the Octagon in any one of those fights was in his debut, when he needed a little more than four minutes to dispose of Parker Porter a little over 13 months ago.
He’s 9-1 in his last 10 fights and enters Saturday’s pairing with Shamil Abdurakhimov stationed at No. 10 in the heavyweight rankings, and yet I have no real understanding of where his ceiling lies. Part of that is because heavyweight is one of those divisions where the top seven fighters in the division have really separated themselves from the rest of the pack, who all kind of feel interchangeable more or less, but it’s also because it’s hard to know what to make of a guy when his best win is a two-minute mugging of Aleksei Oleinik, who is 44 going on 87 and has zero tread left on his tires.
To his credit — and this is all you can ask of anyone — Daukaus has handled his business and done it without much difficulty, but that still doesn’t give me any sense of how he stacks up against the big dogs in the big boy division. Saturday’s clash with Abdurakhimov should help a little, as the Russian is 5-2 over his last seven UFC appearances with his losses coming against Blaydes and Lewis, which gives you a solid measurement on where he fits, but he’s also 40 years old and hasn’t fought in a little over two years, so…
Daukaus going out and crushing him puts the Philadelphia cop in good company, are raises his floor a little more, but it still won’t tell me where his ceiling rests, which is okay, because not getting that answer this weekend actually makes me more interested in seeing him compete the next time out, against someone further up the rankings, when I can ask this same question again.
Modafferi vs. Santos: Is Taila Santos a future contender?
Similar to the above question with Daukaus, I don't know if Santos can answer this question completely with a victory on Saturday, because I’m not sure how much weight to give beating a 39-year-old Modafferi (as of Friday) coming off a knee injury and stuck in a lose one, win one pattern through the entirety of this second UFC run.
That being said, the Brazilian has looked very solid in her last two outings against Molly McCann and Gillian Robertson and can move into the Top 10 with a strong outing this weekend, which keeps her moving in the right direction and should set up, in theory, another step up in competition that gets me closer to getting an answer to my question.
I want to be clear here: when I ask if she’s a future contender, I simply want to know if she can become a Top 3-5 fighter in the division, not whether she can topple Valentina Shevchenko, because those are two very different tasks, and I think people conflate the two at times. For instance, Julianna Pena is a contender at bantamweight, but I give her very little chance of beating Amanda Nunes later this year despite earning that designation.
Looking at the division, I’m curious to know how Santos would do against Jessica Eye, against Vivi Araujo, against JoJo Calderwood, or Cynthia Calvillo because much like at heavyweight (and in most divisions), I think the upper tier of talent in the 125-pound ranks is a distinct cut above the next group, and I’m interested to know which group the emerging 28-year-old belongs to going forward.
Medic vs. Turner: Can Medic keep rolling?
Medic was my Fighter to Watch earlier this week and I’m certainly high on him as a prospect, so obviously this is a fight I’ve been looking forward to and will continue to pay close attention to on Saturday afternoon.
If Medic is as good as I think he could be and is improving at a rate I think he’s capable of improving at while working with the terrific team at Kings MMA, that will show up this weekend, because while Turner is solid and has some upside of his own, he’s still a little unpolished, and a superior prospect should beat him.
I love this pairing because it eliminates the “well, he’s just taller and longer and used those advantages well” remarks I imagine detractors making about Medic, as if playing to your strengths and maximizing your advantages somehow limits the credit one deserves for their efforts, because Turner is the tall man by two inches and has a six-inch reach advantage.
Medic has a confidence and a presence to him that I noticed right away on the Contender Series and that looked emboldened in his debut, and it’s the kind of thing that you often see from really elite prospects in these earlier stages of their career. They just know they’re better than the guy standing across from them, and then they go out and prove it, and thus far, Medic has operated that way, and I’m curious to see if he continues doing so in his toughest test to date this weekend.
Roberson vs. Maximov: What can we expect from Nick Maximov?
Maximov is an interesting prospect in the middleweight division, but less than a year after earning a victory on the Contender Series, but not earning a contract, he’s now set to step into the Octagon on Saturday night against Karl Roberson, without having fought since.
The 23-year-old is 6-0 and fights out of the Nick Diaz Academy, which is a big part of why he’s on this card this weekend, but his opponents have a combined 13-16 record, which becomes even more lopsided if you removed his last opponent, 36-year-old Oscar Cota, and his 11-2 record built against less than stellar competition.
Physically speaking, Maximov is intriguing — he’s six-feet tall, has a 76-inch reach, is in tremendous shape, and you know his conditioning will be on point because he’s Diaz Brother disciple and those dudes go hard — but none of that tells me anything about what he brings to the Octagon this weekend.
Roberson should be a good measuring stick — a guy with that is 4-4 in the UFC, but lost to the best competition he’s faced and enters on a two-fight slide — and should clarify whether Maximov is someone genuinely worth paying attention to going forward or the next Chris Avila.
Semelsberger vs. Sano: Can Matthew Semelsberger make a statement?
This feels like a bit of a no-win situation for Semelsberger, who is paired off with another Diaz Brothers associate, Nick’s main training partner Martin Sano, in Saturday’s second contest. Sano hasn’t fought in four years and hasn't won a fight since April 2014, which means “Semi” is expected to win and win handily this weekend.
That’s always a tough position to be in, and especially difficult for someone still early in their own MMA journey, as Semelsberger is, plus he’s coming off his first UFC loss and is set to compete in front of a crowd for the first time.
But in talking to him ahead of this fight, I know he’s motivated by those last two elements, and prepared for this fight as if Sano is a world-beater, so I’m interested to see if the former collegiate safety can come out and deliver another dynamic performance like the one he delivered earlier this year when he knocked out Jason Witt in 16 seconds. That’s the only way to come away from a fight like this without people automatically diminishing your efforts, and some will still try regardless.
In a different MMA landscape, I’d love to see Semelsberger logging 6-8 fights with a top Triple A promotion (I’m trying to get away from saying ‘regional promotion’) like LFA or CFFC in order to accrue more experience and overall cage time, because I think he has upside. But those days are largely gone, which means he’s figuring it all out and logging those reps in the majors, and he needs a big effort here to avoid people questioning whether or not he belongs at this level.
Pearce vs. Morales: Why did Omar Morales move down to featherweight?
I was perplexed by this decision when it happened and even though he’s coming off a victory, I’m still not sure why Morales moved to featherweight in the first place.
The 35-year-old was 10-0 as a lightweight, earning his UFC contract with a very impressive win over Harvey Park on the Contender Series before collecting quality victories over Dong Hyun Ma and Gabriel Benitez in his first two UFC appearances. Everything was going wonderfully, and then he just opted to move down a division, where he ran into Giga Chikadze and got handed his first career loss. He rebounded with a win over Shane Young earlier this year, but I’m just not sure I see a real path forward for Morales in the featherweight division.
Saturday’s bout with Jonathan Pearce should help clarify that a little, as “JSP” is a solid emerging talent coming off a very strong showing in his return to the 145-pound weight class last November after more than a year off. He’s the kind of “early stage UFC fighter” that Morales needs to keep beating if he hopes to make real progress in this division, which is stacked with promising young fighters, and I’m just not sure he’s capable of doing that.
I don’t know that it would have happened at lightweight either, but that only makes the decision to cut more weight and move down even more curious to me.
Why not stick around at ‘55, save the extra 10 pounds, and see what you can do? Clearly I’m hoping to get a bit more of an answer to this one this weekend.