UFC 268: One Question for Every Fight
From the championship headliners to the intriguing opener, here's a look at what I'm thinking about for each matchup ahead of Saturday's return to Madison Square Garden
Kamaru Usman vs. Colby Covington
Q: What can Colby Covington do differently?
The challenger fought an outstanding fight the first time around, running level with Usman right up until the final round, and even then, the bout didn’t turn until the final two minutes of the fifth round, when Usman started pressing forward more, hurting Covington and ultimately getting him out of there.
Since then, we’ve only seen him once, against a fading Tyron Woodley, who lasted into the final round before succumbing to an injury, while Usman has fought thrice, including earning a pair of impressive stoppage victories already this year. We’ve also seen the champion step his striking game up by switching camps and working exclusively with Trevor Wittman, who will lead a fighter into battle in each of the final three bouts of the evening this weekend.
So what can Covington do differently to alter the result and claim championship gold?
Neither man wrestled in the first encounter and I will be interested to see if Covington pursues it a little more this time around, as he’s shown an ability to maintain a good pace even when wrestling a great deal, and forcing Usman to defend takedowns or even think about a potential shot more than he did in the first fight could be the only way to alter things in Saturday’s rematch.
Rose Namajunas vs. Zhang Weili
Q: Can “Thug Rose” go five rounds with Zhang Weili?
None of this is meant to diminish the beautiful performance Namajunas delivered to claim the strawweight title for a second time earlier this year; it was a perfectly timed, perfectly placed kick and I know she is more than capable of executing something similar this time around to retain her title.
However, let’s say it doesn’t happen: can the strawweight titleholder go 25 minutes with the former champion turned hungry challenger?
Namajunas is a precision fighter — she doesn’t throw tremendous volume, but she’s not a major power threat either; she beats you by landing clean, meaningful strikes in short bursts and key moments — and a tremendous finisher when the opportunity presents itself, but if she can’t land something that knocks Zhang off course and creates a chance to finish, I’m not sure if she can hold up to the power and pressure that will be coming back here way.
The champion has gone the distance four times in her UFC career. She was out-struck in all but one of those — the second Jessica Andrade fight, where she started hot and faded down the stretch — and getting into a protracted battle with the Chinese challenger where you’re trying to match her output and impact feels like a losing battle. We’ve seen her steel herself away and pull out a round when she needed it most in the rematch with Joanna Jedrzejczyk, so it’s possible, but I do wonder how the power difference will alter things if it gets that far.
Justin Gaethje vs. Michael Chandler
Q: Can Michael Chandler truly hang with Justin Gaethje?
Michael Chandler hasn’t lost much in his career — just six times, actually — but the last four of those setbacks all came by stoppage, and the last three all came relatively early in the fights, and now he’s stepping in with a human wrecking ball in Justin Gaethje, who is going to be in his face and putting it on him from the jump.
I’m genuinely curious to see if the former Bellator top man can withstand the pressure because this feels like it could be one of those instances where Gaethje just comes out and settles things early or an elongated battle in the Gaethje-Ferguson design, and I’m not sure if Chandler can hold up to that kind of punishment. One thing that might be working in his favor is that this is a three-round affair, and not a five-round battle, which, in my opinion, would further favor Gaethje, but even over 15 minutes, it’s going to be interesting to see how the Mizzou product performs.
Chandler can crack too, so there is always the possibility that he lands something sharp of his own and gets Gaethje out of there quickly, but the former interim champ has only been finished on the feet twice and both came after extended battles with Eddie Alvarez and Dustin Poirier, which makes a sudden finish feel less likely on the Chandler side of things.
I’ve always felt Chandler was a little undersized for the lightweight division, which makes his myriad achievements all the more impressive, but I do wonder how that factors into a fight like this where every shot is going to be a power shot and durability will be key.
Shane Burgos vs. Billy Quarantillo
Q: Can Shane Burgos avoid getting into another Fight of the Night?
As a fan, I want to see Burgos and Billy Quarantillo in a back-and-forth, high-volume, 15-minute battle where both guys have their moments and we’re talking about a potential Fight of the Year candidate. But for Burgos, who has dropped consecutive bouts in Fight of the Night-winning pairings with Josh Emmett and Edson Barboza, I’m interested to see if he can use his five-inch reach advantage and sharp, crisp offence to keep “Billy Q” at range and win one without it becoming an instant classic.
Burgos throws a lot, but he also gets hit a lot, and when you’re constantly in these tooth-and-nail battles, it takes a toll on you. All but one of his first nine UFC appearances went into the third round, and he’s had five fights where he’s been hit with 75 or more significant strikes. He’s only won two of those fights, and one of them was by split decision.
He has the technical skills to work behind his jab and avoid getting into too many exchanges in the pocket, but I wonder if there is something about Burgos that just draws him to those interactions and leads him into those types of fights? He wouldn’t be the first guy to have such a predilection and he won’t be the last, but it might behoove him every once in a while to stay outside and stay technical rather than wading into the fray and seeing what happens.
Frankie Edgar vs. Marlon Vera
Q: Is Marlon Vera ever going to take the next step?
I think a lot of people want Marlon Vera to be considered a contender at bantamweight, but I don’t think Marlon Vera is a contender at bantamweight; at least not yet. More importantly, I’m not sure I see Vera getting there, and this fight with Frankie Edgar feels like another referendum on where “Chito” currently stands in the division and how much higher he could potentially climb.
Vera was in this same position last year when he fought Jose Aldo following his win over Sean O’Malley, and after running level with the Brazilian legend for two rounds, he charged forward recklessly to begin the third, got his back taken by Aldo, and never really got back to is feet. The chance to elevate himself into the Top 10 was right there and he threw it away with a careless mistake, and it makes me wonder if that’s just the guy he’s destined to be?
As I’ve said time and again in this space, there is absolutely nothing wrong with being the 12th best bantamweight in the UFC — a lot of people would love to trade places with you if that’s your position for three, four, five years — and thus far, Vera hasn’t shown he’s capable of climbing higher than that position.
This is another chance, as Edgar has only lost to elite talents across three divisions over the course of his career, and a .500 record since UFC 200, remains a Top 10 fighter in the talent-rich bantamweight division. If Vera is to be a contender, to be a real threat, he needs this one, and I will be watching closely to see if he can actually take that next step.
Alex Pereira vs. Andreas Michailidis
Q: Will we avoid overreacting to whatever Alex Pereira does on Saturday night?
As you will probably hear 10-15,000 times in the lead up to his UFC debut this weekend, two-division Glory Kickboxing standout Alex Pereira holds not one, but two victories over reigning UFC middleweight champion Israel Adesanya, which means as much as this is his first foray into the Octagon and just his second MMA bout in five-and-a-half years, folks will be looking at it through the prism of “Can he rise to beat Adesanya in MMA too?”
It’s like when Joseph Duffy arrived in the UFC as “the last man to beat Conor McGregor” and was forecasted for great things on the basis of what “The Notorious” one was doing. Duffy never really put together a real run in the Octagon, going 4-4 over eight fights and exiting on a three-fight slide.
This is one of those instances where we need to look at the complete picture instead just getting stuck on the whole “but he has a tie to Adesanya” element of this, even if Pereira goes out here and wallops Michailidis on Saturday. He’s 34 years old and has limited MMA experience, and as great as he was as a kickboxer, it’s hard to transition into a new sport and be this far behind the truly elite talents, so expecting him to close the gap quickly and be a contender almost immediately is expecting a lot.
Also, his last win over Adesanya was in March 2017, so nearly five years ago. I know we like fixating on big names and easy selling points in this sport, but we really need to let go of the habit of giving a ton of value and importance to stuff that happened almost half-a-decade ago in a different sport like it’s in any way telling of what may transpire now.
Al Iaquinta vs. Bobby Green
Q: How the hell do you know what to expect from Al Iaquinta at this point?
It’s been just over two years since Iaquinta last stepped into the Octagon, and nearly three since he earned his last victory. He’s 1-3 in his last four fights, and the win before that came against Diego Sanchez in April 2017.
The sixth fight back on his resume is the “Are you booing me?” fight with Jorge Masvidal in Fairfax, Virginia, which feels like eons ago given what “Gamebred” has done since and the fact that it was six-and-a-half years ago. (See what I’m saying with the Pereira-Izzy thing now?)
Iaquinta has always been one of those guys that I’ve struggled to scout and project because I’ve never really thought of him as much more than a blue-collar, meat-and-potatoes type of fighter — a guy that is more toughness and grit than technically skilled, and someone that always got more shine because of his personality and affiliations than his actual results merited.
And now he’s been off for another two years.
The difficult thing in trying to break down this fight and what to expect from him is that Saturday’s pairing with Green is kind of tailor-made for Iaquinta — a bout with another wrestle-boxer who doesn’t have one-shot power or an interest in staying super-technical and busting him up with sound fundamentals. It’s 100-percent a fight I can see Iaquinta winning by throwing one-twos and mixing in a little wrestling, but I can also see the now 34-year-old being a little slower, a little rusty and dropping a “How did I lose that?” decision to Green, who is mighty familiar with those types of fights.
I have no idea what to do with this fight and I don’t think it’s going to become any clearer to me between now and Saturday.
Phil Hawes vs. Chris Curtis
Q: Will anyone give Phil Hawes props for not taking this fight on 24-hours notice a couple weeks back?
There was a period of a couple hours four weeks ago where it looked like Hawes and Curtis were going to meet in the Octagon — Hawes’ original opponent, Deron Winn, was forced to withdraw the day before the fight and Curtis, who resides in Las Vegas, jumped at the opportunity, weighing in and everything before Hawes declined the fight.
We talk all the time about how unprofessional it is when fighters miss weight, leaving their opponents in the unenviable position of either accepting a catchweight bout with someone that may not have put themselves through the same struggle to make the contracted weight or decline and miss out on the opportunity to get paid, but rarely do we praise the competitors that take the long view of their careers as Hawes did here.
There was no upside to him facing Curtis blind on October 9 — he prepared for a completely different challenge (for a second time) and opted to push the contest back a month rather than roll the dice in a high-risk, low-reward pairing on 24-hours notice — and he deserves to be commended for his approach.
Unfortunately, decisions like that often end up getting cast as cowardice in this sport because, well, frankly, people are stupid and stop viewing MMA competitors as professional athletes when things like this come up, opting instead to look at them like a bunch of folks claiming to the be toughest person in the room who should therefore take on all comers to prove themselves. It’s idiotic, but these things happen in MMA.
Hawes is on a nice little run — seven straight wins overall, 3-0 in the UFC — and has the skills to make some noise in the middleweight division going forward, and he made the absolute correct decision in declining the fight last month.
I just hope I’m not the only one that says that this week.
Edmen Shahbazyan vs. Nassourdine Imavov
Q: Will Edmen Shahbazyan right the ship on Saturday?
Two years ago, Edmen Shahbazyan walked into the Octagon at Madison Square Garden with a pristine 10-0 record, coming off back-to-back first-round stoppage wins in a combined 110 seconds, and proceeded to pick off and put away durable Hawaiian stalwart Brad Tavares in a shade under half a round.
“The Golden Boy” moved to 11-0 overall and 4-0 in the UFC with three straight first-round finishes and looked like he was ready to compete with the top names in the middleweight division.
This weekend, Shahbazyan returns to MSG on a two-fight skid, having been stopped by Derek Brunson last summer and mauled down the stretch by Jack Hermansson earlier this year. His record is no longer shiny and projecting a way forward is difficult right now because of how bad the last two fights looked.
If you want to take the optimists view, you point to Shahbazyan still being just 23 years old (he turns 24 later this month) and having good moments early in each of those fights. You look at the fact that he was in there with legit veterans and tenured middleweight contenders that quickly in the first place, and fall back on the tremendous efforts he turned in before that, because not many people have walked in and wiped out Brad Tavares like that during the course of his career.
But there is also reason for concern because his gym, Glendale Fighting Club, doesn’t exactly have the best track record for developing fighters or providing insightful, invaluable instruction, and his output and energy seems to fall off a cliff somewhere around the three or four minute mark of these fights, which isn’t good for any fighter, but feels worse for a 23-year-old kid who should have energy for days if he’s preparing correctly.
Now, it looks like he’s done some training in a couple different places, with a couple different people this time around, which feels like a wise decision, but it’s really going to be interesting to see if Shahbazyan can get things moving in the right direction on Saturday because Imavov is no joke.
Ian Garry vs. Jordan Williams
Q: How wild will the Ian Garry projections and comparisons get this week?
I think Garry is a phenomenal talent and incredible prospect — you can read about that here — but I also know that we live in a hyperbolic world where people tend to freak the fuck out about prospects beating the holy hell out of overmatched opponents, especially when they can make a grandiose comparison with a world-class talent.
Khamzat Chimaev was the second coming of Khabib Nurmagomedov for smashing John Phillips. He’s proven to be genuinely scary since, but comparing him to one of the best to ever do it after one fight, against a guy that struggled in the UFC, was a stretch.
Garry is going to get the “Next Conor McGregor” treatment all week and it’s going to kick into overdrive if he throttles Williams, who is 0-2 in the UFC and coming off a first-round submission loss to Mickey Gall.
Someone is going to call for him to get a date with a Top 15 opponent next. Someone is bound to say he’s destined to be champion, as if reaching those heights is easy. Somebody will probably say he’s going to be a two-weight world champion because that’s what McGregor did and if Garry is the next Conor, why wouldn’t he replicate what his fellow Irishman did in the Octagon?
I’m all for being excited about new arrivals and trying to forecast where these young fighters may progress to in the future, but I’m also a moderate when it comes to doling out advanced accolades and making calls on a competitor’s ceiling and floor after one appearance in the UFC, so I’m really curious to see how wild the projections will be if things go as expected for Garry on Saturday.
Gian Villante vs. Chris Barnett
Q: How come Gian Villante doesn’t get any of that Sam Alvey hate?
Let me start by saying I’m not advocating for anyone to get hate for their results (or lack of results) inside the Octagon and tenure with the UFC because there are far more important things to be upset about than Sam Alvey continuing to compete in the UFC…
But if we’re doing all that, how has Gian Villante escaped the firing squad that constantly comes at Alvey whenever someone is removed from the rankings pool? The same goes for Randa Markos, Ashley Yoder, and a few others as well, who may not be winless in seven, but haven’t exactly been lighting it up either.
Villante has lost three straight, four of five, six of eight, and eight of his last 12, including being the last guy Sam Alvey beat, and yet I don’t see any of the same vitriol and questions surrounding his fight bookings or presence on the roster that Alvey gets, and I’m curious to know why.
Is it because he’s Chris Weidman’s BFF and seems like a really likeable dude? Is it because he doesn’t walk out to “Hey Soul Sister” by Train? Is it because a lot of people can relate to changing weight classes during the pandemic?
I genuinely want to know because to me, it seems like folks just being inconsistent and dumping on Ol’ Smilin’ Sam while letting several others with shabby records get a pass.
Dustin Jacoby vs. John Allan
Q: What are we to make of Dustin Jacoby’s solid little run of success?
Dustin Jacoby jumped into this weekend’s fight card last week as a replacement for Aleksa Camur, and arrives in NYC with a 3-0-1 record since returning to the UFC last Halloween.
After battling Ion Cutelaba to a draw in May, he got Darren Stewart out of there in three minutes and change at the end of August and has looked like an intriguing addition to the light heavyweight division. This fight with Allan, who is winless in two UFC starts, probably won’t clarify things too much, but I have to admit that I have no idea what to make of Jacoby’s comeback campaign.
I lean towards him being a tough-as-nails presence in the middle of the light heavyweight division — a guy that maybe flirts with the Top 15, but doesn’t become a permanent resident — but then again, Cutelaba just cracked the rankings and he ran level with him six months ago. He comes from a great camp (Factory X) and has a wealth of experience between MMA and kickboxing, without really having a ton of miles on his tires, so could he maybe make a push towards the Top 10?
I wasn’t sold on his getting a contract last season on the Contender Series when he faded hard against Ty Flores, but Jacoby has proven he belongs since, and I’ll be paying close attention to see how far he can take this going forward.
Melsik Baghdasaryan vs. Bruno Souza
Q: Will Saturday give me a better read on Melsik Baghdasaryan?
I have no feel for Baghdasaryan at the moment because for as terrific as he looked against Collin Anglin in his debut earlier this year — and he looked outstanding — I have an incredibly hard time figuring out what to make of these competitors that cross over from another discipline and blast their way through punching bags at Double A before landing in the UFC.
Baghdasaryan looked only okay in his Contender Series win over Dennis Buzukja in September 2020 and didn’t get a contract, but landing in the Octagon for his next fight nonetheless, and looked great. Buzukja has won each of his two fights since, but he’s not exactly fighting top competition, which makes getting a read on “The Gun” all the more difficult. Mix in the Glendale Fighting Club connect and you see why I’m struggling.
It’s also that I’m intrigued by Souza, who fills in for TJ Laramie and enters on a 10-fight winning streak that includes victories over competitors I know are solid, like Kamuela Kirk and Elijah Johns.
This is one I’m going to be paying close attention to on Saturday because one way or another, I hope to come away with a better idea about where Baghdasaryan fits in the featherweight division.
C.J. Vergara vs. Ode’ Osbourne
Q: Can C.J. Vergara make a splash in his debut?
Vergara was a massive underdog heading into his Contender Series appearance this fall, but needed just 41 seconds to dispose of former TUF contestant Bruno Korea. Now he’s paired off with fellow Contender Series grad Ode’ Osbourne in his promotional debut, and I have this little twitchy feeling like the 30-year-old newcomer might be someone to pay attention to in the flyweight division going forward.
The Pete Spratt-trained Vergara has real impact power for a flyweight and has shown in his fights on the way to the Octagon that he carries it with him later into fights. He faced solid competition at Triple A and smoked Korea, who is a good prospect in his own right, and gives me “slightly older newcomer capable of making waves” vibes as he readies to take on Osbourne.
Call it a hunch, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Vergara came out, touched up Osbourne, and kicked off the night in impressive fashion.
I might end up being dead wrong on this, but sometimes you’ve got to go with your gut, and what I saw from the newcomer at the start of September made an impression on me.